| | | 免责声明 沪铅产业日报 2025-08-27 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 去化。但整体来说有望逐步强化，对铅价形成一定支撑。综上所述，沪铅整体供应有望减少，需求逐步走 高，叠加市场对美联储降息预期，铅价建议逢低布局多单。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16890 | -40 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1988 | -7 | | 期货市场 | 09-10月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -20 | 0 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 85570 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月27日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪镍涨1.11%，沪铝涨0.72%，沪锡涨 0.36%，沪锌涨0.22%，不锈钢涨0.04%，沪铜跌0.05%，沪铅跌0.15%，氧化铝跌1.73%。 ...

| | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-08-26 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 对低位，再生企业利润暂无好转，预计开工继续维稳。库存方面，国外库存上行，国内库存下行，整体库 存上行。从目前库存数据来看，需求尚未有效拉动库存去化。但整体来说有望逐步强化，对铅价形成一定 免责声明 支撑。综上所述，沪铅整体供应有望减少，需求逐步走高，叠加市场对美联储降息预期，铅价建议逢低布 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 局多单。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16930 | 85 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/ ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月26日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪铜涨0.44%，不锈钢涨0.35%，沪铅 涨0.18%，沪锡涨0.07%，沪镍涨0.05%，沪铝持平，沪锌跌0.27%，氧化铝跌0.60%。 ...

库存方面，据新湖期货介绍，截止上周四铅锭社会库存延续回落0.11万吨至6.99万吨：上周二LME铅库 存再度大幅交仓2.2万吨，国内进口亏损快速收窄。 供应端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，原生铅炼厂，当前原生铅开工率相对再生铅仍保持强势，且其副 产品收益稳定。不过，随着铅价持续波动，部分原生铅炼厂生产决策有所调整，原生铅产量依旧小幅波 动。再生铅供应区域性差异凸显。废电瓶原料端供应较紧，冶炼厂信心不足，总体供给端方面偏紧。 展望后市，中辉期货表示，海外降息预期，国内铅供应相对宽松状态，原生铅生产恢复，再生铅生产积 极性一般，下游蓄电池订单量不足，铅价短期企稳走势。 8月25日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪铅期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约 报16865.00元/吨，小幅上涨0.63%。 需求方面，长江期货指出，铅精矿价格较上周下跌50元/吨，现货铅锭价格较上周下跌100元/吨，废旧 电池回收价较上周下跌75元/吨。七月国内铅矿砂等进口量较6月大幅增长，精炼铅进口量更是呈倍数增 长，但下游企业尤其是汽车企业7月生产量较6月下降29.84万辆，需求不足对现货铅价形成压制。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on August 22, with some metals experiencing gains while others saw declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.58% [1] - Shanghai copper rose by 0.20% [1] - Shanghai lead gained 0.18% [1] - Alumina saw a slight increase of 0.06% [1] - Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.16% [1] - Stainless steel fell by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai tin dropped by 0.30% [1] - Shanghai nickel declined by 0.36% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to remain flat, while demand gradually increases. Considering the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,825 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,971 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the position of Shanghai lead is 92,719 lots, down 816 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 951 lots, up 1,142 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 61,353 tons, down 872 tons [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory is 260,475 tons, down 625 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 16,675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 44 US dollars/ton, down 0.76 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.25%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.53 tons, up 0.15 tons [3] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 70 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars; the global lead ore output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons [3] - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3] - The export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy is 19,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,020.01 points, up 31.2 points; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3] - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3] 3.6 Industry News - There are multiple events including the US - Ukraine - EU White House meeting, the decline of the US homebuilder confidence index, Trump's plan to sign an executive order to abolish mail - in ballots, and Hamas's agreement to a new Gaza cease - fire proposal [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production decision of some primary lead smelters has been adjusted, and the output of primary lead fluctuates slightly. The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply side is tight [3] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - battery field. Although approaching the traditional consumption peak season, the actual demand has not yet shown explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [3] - The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an improvement in overall demand. The lead - battery industry is approaching the peak season, and the demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price [3]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance on August 18, with lead futures experiencing slight fluctuations, closing at 16,775.00 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates that the U.S. July unadjusted CPI year-on-year remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1%, leading traders to increase bets on a potential Fed rate cut in September, which is favorable for the non-ferrous sector [1] - Supply-side analysis reveals that the operating rate of primary lead smelters remained strong, while the operating rate of recycled lead slightly decreased but remained relatively low, with no improvement in profits for recycling enterprises, suggesting stable operations going forward [1] Group 2 - Demand-side insights indicate that the operating rate of battery manufacturers is weaker than in previous years, with July lead-acid battery finished product inventory days dropping from 26 to 21.8 days, while dealer inventory days increased from 39.9 to 44.6 days, indicating high levels of finished product inventory and significant pressure on end consumption [1] - Future market trends suggest that primary lead enterprises are generally resuming production, with environmental regulations in Anhui province having a diminishing impact on recycled lead, leading to a relatively loose supply of lead, while downstream battery consumption remains poor, putting short-term pressure on lead prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, there is no obvious contradiction, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment in China is fluctuating, the zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, demand is in the off - season, inventory continues to accumulate, and overseas LME zinc inventory is decreasing, providing some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,700 yuan/ton with 0.00% change, Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price is 16,850 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, and the basis is - 150 yuan/ton with a - 80 yuan change [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume is 32,601 lots with a - 28.53% change, and the position is 51,207 lots with a - 0.32% change [1]. - LME inventory is 261,100 tons with 0.00% change, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 61,784 tons with 0.00% change [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 1,981 dollars/ton with a - 0.45% change, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.51 with a 0.93% increase [1]. Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 68.07%, a 0.67 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 41%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, a 2.05 - percentage - point increase [1]. - On August 14th, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.87 dollars/ton, and the position was 154,530 lots, an increase of 682 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise and difficult to fall, but it has not had a substantial impact on smelter operations. Previously - shut - down smelters are gradually resuming production, and primary lead operations are rising steadily [1]. - For secondary lead, the price of waste lead batteries is likely to rise and difficult to fall, recyclers' supplies are limited, and stores are reluctant to sell due to bullish sentiment. Some smelters have cut or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversion, with overall operations at a relatively low level and firm quotations, and a slight decline in operations [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,380 yuan/ton with a - 0.27% change, Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price is 22,505 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase, and the basis is - 125 yuan/ton with a - 85 yuan change [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume is 83,222 lots with a 6.65% increase, and the position is 76,347 lots with a - 5.51% change [1]. - LME inventory is 76,325 tons with 0.00% change, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 20,020 tons with a 17.10% increase [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,796.5 dollars/ton with a - 1.62% change, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 8.05 with a 1.76% increase [1]. Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 58.54%, a 1.19 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 47.61%, a 0.81 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.95%, a 1.27 - percentage - point increase [1]. - Last week, the total inventory of zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 354,000 physical tons, a 46,000 - ton increase from the previous week [1]. - On August 14th, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.87 dollars/ton, and the position was 154,530 lots, an increase of 682 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc ore processing fees are rising continuously. Last week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index rose to 90.3 dollars/dry ton. With continuous easing of raw materials, zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising in August, cost - side support is weakening, smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, and production volume is showing an obvious upward trend [1]. - On the demand side, last week zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range, downstream enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory. The price of black metals showed a good trend, and some end - users stocked up due to concerns about future production cuts, driving an increase in galvanized operations [1].

「2025.08.15」 沪铅市场周报 联储降息预期升温，沪铅需求存在变数 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 图1 沪铅与伦铅期价 数据来源：同花顺 瑞达期货研究院 图2 沪伦比值 数据来源：同花顺 瑞达期货研究院 截至20250814,期货收盘价(电子盘):LME3个月铅报1938美元/吨, 期货收盘价(活跃合约):铅报16730元/吨 截至20250814,铅沪伦比值报8.63 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货呈现震荡态势。沪期铅主力合约2509表现活跃，本周沪铅2509涨幅达 0.03% 。整体来说本周沪铅在供给上行，需求不足的表现下，小幅上涨为主，本周上半周在联储降 息预期下，价格开始出现上涨，但到了下半周，数据修复了联储降息预期，沪铅开始出现下行，本 周整体处于窄幅震荡态势。 u 行情展望：开工率出现上行，产量随之上升。当前原生铅开工率相对再生铅仍保持强势，且其副产 ...