1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 16, 2026, the lead futures price showed a high - opening and low - closing trend with a slight decline, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term due to the lack of clear trend - driving factors [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of SHFE lead futures (PB.SHF) opened high and closed low, with an opening price of 16,550 yuan/ton, a highest price of 16,565 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 16,195 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 16,315 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Spot Market Basis Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the average spot price of 1 lead in the domestic non - ferrous market was 16,410 yuan/ton. The spot price was at a premium of 95 yuan/ton over the main contract of lead futures, indicating a relatively stable supply of spot market resources and no obvious supply - demand imbalance [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - Overseas: The continuous Middle East conflict has pushed up oil prices, strengthened inflation expectations, and the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in March has dropped to near zero. The US dollar index has broken through 100, suppressing the prices of commodities including lead [4] - Domestic: In February, the new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year - on - year. The loose monetary policy provided some support for domestic commodity demand, but the slow consumption recovery restricted the upward space of lead prices [4] 3.4 Market Outlook - Technically, the lead price fell but did not break through the previous low - level range, and it is likely to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5] - Fundamentally, the current futures - spot price difference is reasonable, there is no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand side, and there are differences between long and short positions in the capital side without extreme unilateral positions, so there is a lack of clear trend - driving factors [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by the Iran situation, and the volatility of various commodities is expected to increase [6][9]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions, such as some commodities are expected to be bullish, some are expected to be bearish, and some are expected to be volatile [14][16][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 140 billion yuan. The US CPI data was released. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond market is expected to face certain pressure, so it is necessary to be cautious [5][6]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities [8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold rose and silver fell. In February 2026, global physical gold ETFs continued to flow in. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The rebar price may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [13][14]. 3.5 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may have a positive impact on prices, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [16]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and coke demand is under pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [18]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The cost of ferroalloys is at a low level with limited downward space, and the supply is in a state of over - supply. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [20]. 3.8 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in net long positions in the US crude oil futures market shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a significant impact on global energy supply, and the crude oil price still has support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the crude oil main contract [21][22]. 3.9 Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. The downstream factories of polyolefins resumed production, and the demand for replenishment increased. The cost support was enhanced, and the market sentiment improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [24][25]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The core driving force is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, which drives up the cost of butadiene. There are maintenance plans for some devices in March. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [27][28]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict drives up the cost of synthetic rubber, increasing the expected substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main producing areas are in the low - production season, and the supply is tight. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29][30]. 3.12 PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The core driving force is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts and the seasonal off - season when domestic spring demand has not fully started. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [31][33]. 3.13 Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and international supply - demand mismatches. The global urea production capacity has a hard gap, and China's domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [34][35]. 3.14 PX - The previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, and the downstream polyester and textile terminals are resuming work. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations in the short term, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [36][37]. 3.15 PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand expectation in March may improve. It is expected to run strongly with PX and oil prices, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [38]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The short - term Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost may change sharply. The polyester industry chain is in a high - mood state. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, but the high inventory may limit the increase [39][40]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract rose. The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained, and the loom load is slightly rising. It is still trading on the cost - side logic, and the market may be volatile, so caution is needed [41]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose. The bottle chips supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate is increasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations following the cost side, and caution is needed [42][44]. 3.19 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash main 2605 contract rose. The supply of soda ash is abundant, the demand is general, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to risk control [45][46]. 3.20 Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main 2605 contract rose. The glass industry is in the stage of active capacity reduction, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to position control [49][50]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda main 2605 contract rose. The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, and there are maintenance plans for some factories in March. The price has a certain support due to valuation repair and downstream profit transmission, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the price and sales of liquid chlorine, export orders, and downstream price acceptance [51][52]. 3.22 Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp main 2605 contract fell. The domestic pulp production may decrease, the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of softwood pulp fluctuates with the futures, and the cost of hardwood pulp has support, but the downstream demand has not followed up. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil and commodities, downstream paper mill procurement rhythm, and capital trends [53][54]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing. The consumption is in the off - season but not weak, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [55]. 3.24 Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the domestic electrolytic copper production is restricted by raw materials and maintenance. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range [56][57]. 3.25 Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose. The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the geopolitical conflict affects the supply of bauxite. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The aluminum price is expected to run strongly [59][60]. 3.26 Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The production of refined zinc is increasing moderately, the import is in a net inflow, the downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately, and the zinc price may be under pressure and fluctuate [61][62]. 3.27 Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose. The production of primary lead is gradually recovering, the production of secondary lead is slow to recover, and the battery enterprises are basically fully resumed. The lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [63][64]. 3.28 Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell. The US - Iran conflict and the military conflict in Congo affect the supply of tin. The demand in the emerging fields supports the price, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [65][66]. 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, and the nickel production cost is expected to rise. The downstream consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in a state of over - supply. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The USDA report slightly adjusted the global soybean production and inventory, and the soybean supply - demand balance is expected to improve. The domestic soybean import is slowing down, and the oil mill's profit is rising. If the Middle East conflict continues to rise, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [68][69]. 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory decreased in February, and the export volume increased in March. The domestic palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. China has adjusted the import tariff policy for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are in a state of de - stocking. It is recommended to wait and see [72][74]. 3.33 Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton increased in position and rose, but the upward space is limited. The USDA forum expects a global cotton production reduction in the new year, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [75][77]. 3.34 Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng sugar ran strongly with fluctuations. India's sugar production is expected to decrease, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [78][79]. 3.35 Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The current spot market is stable, and the inventory is low and of poor quality. The apple price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term [81][82]. 3.36 Pigs - The previous trading day, the main pig contract fell. The national pig price is in a state of grinding the bottom, the supply is abundant, and the consumption is weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume, and short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [83][84]. 3.37 Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a high level, and the feed cost may increase. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions [85]. 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, the new - season corn cost may be revised down, and the wheat substitution effect may be strengthened. The corn price may face upward pressure in the short term, and put - option opportunities can be considered. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86][87]. 3.39 Logs - The previous trading day, the main log 2605 contract closed flat. The shipping cost of imported coniferous logs increased, and the downstream demand improved. The sentiment in the energy - chemical market eased, and the shipping cost support for the log market may weaken. Attention should be paid to the foreign - market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream terminal consumption [88][89].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of recycled lead in the delivery system will put pressure on lead prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 16,775 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 1,946 US dollars/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 39,263 lots, an increase of 319 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of LME lead was 7,266 lots, an increase of 366 lots from the previous day [1] - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead was 57,675 lots, a decrease of 1,690 lots from the previous day; the open interest of LME lead was 171,951 lots, an increase of 230 lots from the previous day [1] - The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -42.91 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.3 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -60 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import premium was 90 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -97.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.26 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import profit and loss of the third - consecutive contract of Shanghai lead was 277.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.26 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 54,376 tons, a decrease of 512 tons from the previous day; the LME lead inventory was 285,900 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 5,625 tons, an increase of 350 tons from the previous day [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] News - The sharp slowdown in US non - farm employment, combined with the war in the Middle East, has led to a continuous surge in oil prices, increasing market concerns about stagflation. Anxiety about the private credit industry has also pushed down US stocks [2] - In 2026, China's fiscal policy will adhere to a more proactive tone, with a fiscal arrangement in the tens of billions to boost domestic demand [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has officially included recycled lead in the futures delivery system [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lead prices are likely to trend in a volatile manner, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2604 of Shanghai lead futures was mainly in a volatile range from around 16,620 yuan/ton to 16,980 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In January 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and tobacco prices decreased 0.2% year - on - year, affecting the CPI to drop 0.06 percentage points. Among food items, egg prices dropped 9.2%, livestock meat prices dropped 6.1%, while fresh vegetable prices rose 6.9% and fresh fruit prices rose 3.2% [12] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of February 26, 2026, the average price of Grade 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,540 yuan/ton, 16,610 yuan/ton, and 16,540 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of Grade 1 lead was around a discount of - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - In December 2025, the global lead mine output was 402.2 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.2 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. As of February 13, 2026, the average processing fees in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 100 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 200 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee in Kunming was 190 yuan/metal ton. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 71.9 million tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons from the previous month and 5.3% year - on - year, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [22] 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of February 27, 2026, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,667 tons, an increase of 8,128 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 1.84% [28] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - The national consumer price index showed certain changes in January 2026. Global lead mine output remained at a relatively high level. Refined lead supply continued to be in surplus. Lead processing fees increased slightly, and prices were at the bottom. Shanghai lead inventory increased significantly and was at a relatively high level in recent years. The LME lead inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level in recent years [33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on February 27, with some metals experiencing gains while others faced declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Shanghai tin rose by 2.35% [1] - Shanghai lead increased by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.04% [1] - Shanghai copper fell by 0.15% [1] - Shanghai aluminum dropped by 0.34% [1] - Stainless steel declined by 0.81% [1] - Shanghai nickel fell by 1.25% [1] - Aluminum oxide decreased by 3.55% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market has certain pressure, and caution is required [6]. - The stock index is expected to gradually shift its fluctuation center upward, and long positions can be held [8]. - The precious metals market is expected to have significant fluctuations, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines [10]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, there is a lack of bullish drivers, but the valuation is low. Investors can pay attention to low - level long opportunities [11]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and investors can pay attention to low - level long opportunities [13]. - The coke and coking coal futures may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall over - supply pressure. When the price falls back, investors can consider long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. - The crude oil price is expected to remain strong, and investors can focus on long opportunities for the main contract [18]. - The fuel oil price is expected to rise, and investors can focus on long opportunities for the main contract [21]. - The polyolefin market demand is expected to increase after the Spring Festival, and investors can focus on long opportunities [23]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be volatile and strong, and the key is the progress of tire enterprise inventory reduction after the Lantern Festival [25]. - The natural rubber market is expected to be volatile and strong, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point and production area dynamics [28]. - The PVC market may be volatile and strong, and attention should be paid to the impact of export tax rebates [30]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile and upward, and attention should be paid to policies and demand rhythm [34]. - The PX market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and investors can consider participating at low levels [36]. - The PTA market is expected to be volatile, and interval operations are recommended after the festival [37]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a bottom - building pattern, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. - The short - fiber market still trades on the cost - end logic, and attention should be paid to cost changes, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [39]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the restart of maintenance devices [41]. - The soda ash market is basically stable, and the market rhythm is expected to be demand - based. Caution is required [42]. - The glass market may be slightly volatile and strong, but the sustainability is expected to be general, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [44]. - The caustic soda market needs time for demand recovery, and caution is required [45]. - The pulp market needs to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of downstream factories and the intensity of the first - round raw material replenishment [47]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase [48]. - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term [50]. - The aluminum price is temporarily under pressure and fluctuating [52]. - The zinc price is expected to move upward after the Lantern Festival, and attention should be paid to inventory and downstream resumption progress [55]. - The lead price may be revised upward after the festival, but the rebound space is expected to be limited [57]. - The tin price has support at the bottom, but short - term commodity price fluctuations may intensify [60]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - event disturbances [61]. - For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price breaks away from the low - cost range [64]. - The palm oil market can consider a bullish approach [66]. - The rapeseed oil market can consider a bullish approach [69]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. - The sugar price is expected to be weak in the medium term [76]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [80]. - The pig market has a supply - demand imbalance, and investors can wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [82]. - The egg market supply is expected to remain at a high level, and investors can consider high - level short - selling [84]. - The corn and corn starch market needs to wait for the release of post - festival supply pressure, and corn starch may follow the corn market [86]. - The log market price is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the external market quotation and shipping dynamics [88]. 3. Summary by Catalog Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out 526 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 926.4 billion yuan on the day [5]. - The LPR in February remained stable for the ninth consecutive month. The State Council meeting studied the development of the silver - haired economy and elderly care services. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market has certain pressure, and caution is required [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. During the Spring Festival, the number of domestic tourists and tourism spending reached new highs. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. The fluctuation center is expected to gradually shift upward, and long positions can be held [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures rose. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The central bank's gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, the market lacks fundamental drivers, and significant fluctuations are expected. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. In the medium term, the price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved. The price lacks bullish drivers but has a low valuation [11]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell significantly. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may continue to correct in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - level long opportunities [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand for coke is weak. The futures may continue to fluctuate in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still in an over - supply situation, but the cost has limited downward space. When the price falls back, investors can consider long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose sharply. The geopolitical risk between the US and Iran is high, which pushes up the oil price. However, the exploitation of Venezuelan crude oil by US companies exerts pressure on the oil price. The Brent oil price is expected to remain strong [18]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose first and then fell. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the high - pressure situation between Iran and the US are beneficial to the fuel oil price. The rise in the cost of crude oil will drive up the fuel oil price. Investors can focus on long opportunities for the main contract [20]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets showed some upward trends. After the Spring Festival, the demand is expected to increase significantly, and the suppliers will actively ship. Investors can focus on long opportunities [23]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material cost provides support, and the demand is marginally repaired. The market is expected to be volatile and strong. The key is the progress of tire enterprise inventory reduction after the Lantern Festival [25]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply is shrinking globally, and the demand is relatively stable. The market is expected to be volatile and strong, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point and production area dynamics [28]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. After the festival, policy expectations and infrastructure start - ups may drive demand recovery. The market may be volatile and strong, but attention should be paid to the impact of export tax rebates [30]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. Before the festival, the market was in a high - level shock. After the festival, the daily output may remain high, and the demand is expected to recover. The price may be volatile and upward, and attention should be paid to policies and demand rhythm [34]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, and the cost of crude oil provides support. After the festival, PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel and may be volatile and strong in the short term [36]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply is expected to increase after the festival, and the demand is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. The short - term processing fee has reached the average level, and the market is expected to be volatile. Interval operations are recommended after the festival [37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is at a low level. The inventory is accumulating, and the market is expected to maintain a bottom - building pattern. Cautious operations are recommended [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The cost has increased during the festival, and the supply has shrunk. The terminal factory inventory is low, and the market still trades on the cost - end logic. Attention should be paid to cost changes, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [39]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand is increasing. The market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the restart of maintenance devices [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The fundamentals are loose, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. The market rhythm is expected to be demand - based, and caution is required [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production capacity is in the stage of active reduction, and the inventory has increased slightly. The market may be slightly volatile and strong, but the sustainability is expected to be general, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is at a high level, and the demand needs time to recover. The market has a willingness to support prices, but caution is required [45]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory is accumulating, and the domestic supply has increased slightly. After the festival, the downstream has a rigid demand for replenishment, but the market confidence needs to be verified by real orders. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of downstream factories and the intensity of the first - round raw material replenishment [46]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The geopolitical risk has increased, and the market sentiment has improved. The supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the demand is improving. The price has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase [48]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The macro - environment is complex, and the supply of copper concentrate is tight. The downstream consumption is under pressure, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate until mid - March. The price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term [49]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell. The cost support of alumina is not strong, and the supply - demand pattern is in surplus. The electrolytic aluminum output is increasing, but the growth rate is slowing down. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is temporarily under pressure and fluctuating [52]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell. The processing fee of imported ore has decreased, and the production of refined zinc has decreased seasonally. The demand is in the off - season, but it is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. The price is expected to move upward, and attention should be paid to inventory and downstream resumption progress [54]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose. The production of primary lead has declined, and the production of secondary lead is not active. The terminal consumption is weak, and there is a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The price may be revised upward after the festival, but the rebound space is expected to be limited [57]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The geopolitical risk has increased, and the supply of tin ore is under pressure. The demand in the emerging fields provides support, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has support at the bottom, but short - term commodity price fluctuations may intensify [59]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The geopolitical risk has increased, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is weak, and the market is in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - event disturbances [61]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. The US tariff policy is unstable, and the export demand for US soybeans is expected to be optimistic. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately. For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price breaks away from the low - cost range [62]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil has fallen for three consecutive days. The export is weak, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. The market can consider a bullish approach [65]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures have risen for five consecutive days. The US tariff policy has changed, and China has adjusted the tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are in a medium - low level. The rapeseed oil market can consider a bullish approach [67]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. The new - year global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the consumption is expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [70]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The domestic sugar production is in the peak period, and the import volume is high. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and the Brazilian sugar is expected to have a good harvest. The price is expected to be weak in the medium term [75]. Apple - On the previous trading day, apple futures fell first and then rebounded. The current market trading is in a vacuum period, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [78]. Pig - On the previous trading day, pig futures fell. After the Spring Festival, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The market is in a supply - demand imbalance, and investors can wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [82]. Egg - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The supply of eggs is expected to remain at a high level, and the far - month supply improvement prospect is worrying. Investors can consider high - level short - selling [83]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The North Port corn inventory is low, and the domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand. The supply pressure needs to be released after the festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market [85]. Log - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The shipping volume has returned to normal, and the downstream demand is expected to recover after the festival. The price is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the external market quotation and shipping dynamics [88].

Group 1 - The domestic metal futures market saw most contracts closing higher during the night session, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - Tin futures on the Shanghai exchange rose by 2.02%, while nickel increased by 1.65% and stainless steel by 1.03%, reflecting strong demand and market confidence [1] - International copper prices increased by 0.32%, and Shanghai copper rose by 0.25%, suggesting a stable outlook for copper-related investments [1] Group 2 - Lead futures on the Shanghai exchange experienced a slight increase of 0.12%, indicating a relatively stable market condition [1] - In contrast, aluminum oxide fell by 0.39%, aluminum alloy decreased by 0.42%, and Shanghai aluminum dropped by 0.55%, signaling potential challenges in these segments [1] - Zinc futures on the Shanghai exchange declined by 0.67%, which may reflect oversupply or weakening demand in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mostly lower during the night session on February 14, with significant declines in several metals [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Shanghai tin fell by 7.05% [1] - Shanghai nickel decreased by 3.66% [1] - Shanghai copper dropped by 2.24% [1] - Shanghai aluminum declined by 1.76% [1] - Shanghai zinc fell by 1.61% [1] - Stainless steel decreased by 1.53% [1] - Shanghai lead dropped by 0.33% [1] - Aluminum oxide increased by 0.60% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm data in the US has weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the holiday atmosphere is strong. The non - farm employment in the US in January increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Wall Street expects the first interest rate cut to be postponed to July. The copper market was affected by the strong US employment data, first rising and then falling. Trump plans to set up a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals, which may give copper a further premium. The US manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in January, reaching the fastest growth rate since 2022 [3][12]. - The zinc market is in a state of consolidation. The domestic imported ore TC has slightly decreased, the upstream production reduction is limited, the downstream is on holiday with significantly lightened operations and longer holidays, and the spot inventory continues to increase with the possibility of further inventory accumulation [4]. - The aluminum industry chain is in a state of shock consolidation. The spot price of alumina has stabilized, and there are many restarts after capacity overhauls. The cost support of recycled aluminum alloy has weakened, and it is suppressed by the seasonal off - season and profit inversion, but there are still some factors providing bottom support [5]. - The tin market is in shock consolidation. The Shanghai tin follows the Shanghai nickel and shows a relatively strong trend, but the liquidity decreases before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the changes in capital sentiment, as well as the situation of the ore end and macro - factors [6]. - The lead market is in a low - level shock rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The supply of primary lead has some overhauls, and the production suspension, holiday or overhauls of recycled lead have increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the spot inventory continues to rise [8]. - For the nickel and stainless - steel market, the Indonesian quota is confirmed, and the ore quota of Weda Bay nickel mine in Indonesia is cut by 70%. The cost of nickel products is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The stainless - steel market is in consolidation, and the reduction of the Indonesian quota may increase the cost of stainless - steel production in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals as a whole are in shock, with a strong holiday atmosphere and net capital outflows. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran negotiation, still has uncertainties, and there may be fluctuations in the overseas bulk commodities during the holiday. The global major economies are actively deploying hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion. China's CPI and PPI in January showed certain changes, and the US non - farm data affected the market's expectation of interest rate cuts [12]. - **Investment Suggestions**: After a significant adjustment, the non - ferrous metals sector has repaired, and the trends are differentiated. It is advisable to go long on dips according to the strength of the fundamentals after the adjustment pressure is fully released, but it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. For different varieties: - **Copper**: The operation logic includes strong US employment data, Trump's plan for strategic reserves, and the macro - economic situation. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Zinc**: The market is in stage consolidation. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is recommended to wait and see. For aluminum, the support range is 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 26,000 - 27,000 yuan/ton; for alumina, the support range is 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton; for recycled aluminum alloy, the support range is 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 16,400 - 16,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton [17]. - **Nickel**: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 130,000 - 132,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 138,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Stainless - steel**: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 12,800 - 13,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Situation**: The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, such as copper closing at 102,330 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase, zinc at 24,650 yuan/ton with a 0.26% increase, etc. [18] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for different varieties such as lithium carbonate, nickel, tin, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 102,200 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 24,470 yuan/ton with no change, etc. [22] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Relevant charts about copper, such as exchange copper inventory changes, LME copper inventory, copper concentrate smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper price, are provided [24]. - **Zinc**: Charts related to zinc, including zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fee changes, zinc spot market prices, and galvanized sheet production seasonality, are presented [26][28]. - **Aluminum**: Charts about aluminum, such as the comparison between Shanghai aluminum inventory and aluminum price, LME aluminum inventory and LME aluminum price, LME spot premium and discount trends, and Shanghai Non - ferrous aluminum premium and discount trends, are provided [30][31]. - **Alumina**: Charts related to alumina, including the spot price trend of alumina, alumina port inventory changes, etc., are presented [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Relevant charts are provided, but specific content is not detailed in the text [45]. - **Lead**: Charts about lead, such as lead concentrate 50% processing fee to the factory average price, domestic and foreign exchange lead futures inventory, LME lead 0 - 3 premium and discount, and lead spot price, are presented [49][51]. - **Nickel**: Charts related to nickel, including Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premium and discount, and LME nickel 0 - 3 premium and discount, are provided [53][55]. - **Stainless - steel**: Charts about stainless - steel, such as the number of stainless - steel warehouse receipts and stainless - steel spot price, are presented [57][59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Charts about copper arbitrage, such as the change of copper Shanghai - London ratio and the premium and discount between Shanghai copper and London copper, are provided [61]. - **Zinc**: Charts related to zinc arbitrage, such as the change of zinc Shanghai - London ratio and LME zinc spot premium and discount, are presented [61]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Charts about aluminum and alumina arbitrage, such as aluminum basis and futures - spot price trend, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio trend, Shanghai aluminum continuous one - continuous three trend, and alumina continuous two - continuous one trend, are provided [64][66]. - **Tin**: Charts related to tin arbitrage, such as Shanghai tin basis trend, Shanghai tin continuous three - continuous price trend, and tin Shanghai - London ratio trend, are presented [68][70]. - **Lead**: Charts about lead arbitrage, such as the price difference between Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead and lead Shanghai - London ratio, are provided [72]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: Charts related to nickel and stainless - steel arbitrage, such as nickel Shanghai - London ratio, nickel/stainless - steel ratio, Shanghai nickel inter - period spread, and nickel - nickel pig iron price difference, are presented [75][76]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Charts about copper options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest, are provided [78]. - **Zinc**: Charts related to zinc options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest, are presented [79][80]. - **Aluminum**: Charts about aluminum options, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume and open interest trend, and the ratio of call to put open interest trend, are provided [83][85].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that all basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a decline during the night session on February 13 [1] Group 2 - Shanghai tin fell by 4.27% [1] - Shanghai nickel decreased by 3.74% [1] - Shanghai copper dropped by 2.58% [1] - Stainless steel declined by 1.92% [1] - Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.91% [1] - Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.63% [1] - Alumina dropped by 0.46% [1] - Shanghai lead fell by 0.30% [1]