1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated downward. Affected by overseas demand, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated downwards. However, with the possible interest - rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the price of Shanghai lead is expected to stabilize, and the upward possibility next week is expected to increase [4]. - Next week, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand will remain largely unchanged, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - The operation of the Shanghai lead main contract 2508 is mainly volatile, with a volatile range of 16,800 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead futures was active this week, closing down 1.49%. Affected by overseas demand, the price fluctuated downward. With the possible interest - rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the price is expected to stabilize, and the technical form shows a "yin covering yang", increasing the possibility of an upward movement next week [4]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the production of primary lead smelters decreased due to the falling lead price. The supply of recycled lead is tight, and if the supply of waste batteries remains tight next week, the production of recycled lead will be restricted. On the demand side, although approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand is limited, and the downstream is still in a wait - and - see state. In terms of inventory, overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the overall demand is slowing down. In general, the overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain largely unchanged, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuates mainly, with a volatile range of 16,800 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,500 - 17,900 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic and foreign futures prices of Shanghai lead decreased, and the ratio increased. As of July 18, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1,983.5 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active lead contract was 16,820 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.48 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and foreign premium strengthened. As of July 18, 2025, the domestic futures premium was - 120 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $22.58 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Overseas and domestic lead inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating weak overall demand. As of July 17, 2025, the total lead inventory was 6,680 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 270,950 tons, an increase of 21,575 tons; the number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 60,284 tons, an increase of 9,651 tons [30][34]. 3.3 Industry Situation Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: The operating rate and production of primary lead smelters decreased due to the falling lead price and processing fees. As of July 10, 2025, the average operating rate of the main producing areas of primary lead was 77.87%, a decrease of 1.17% from last week; the weekly production of primary lead was 36,100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from last week [18][20]. - **Recycled Lead**: The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead enterprises began to rise slightly due to the increase in waste lead recycling. However, it is still in the off - season, and the recovery of waste batteries is small, so the capacity recovery is slow. As of July 10, 2025, the domestic production of the main producing areas of recycled lead was 20,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 43.47%, a month - on - month increase of 5.61% [24][28]. - **Enterprise Quantity**: The number of recycled lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68 [36][38]. - **Import and Export**: In May, the export of refined lead increased significantly, and the import of refined lead also increased significantly. There was an arbitrage space due to the price difference between overseas and domestic lead ingots and the low domestic processing fees [40][42]. Demand Side - **Processing Fees**: The domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees remained unchanged, and the decline in production was expected to end. As of July 11, 2025, the average national processing price of lead concentrate was 560 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $50 per thousand tons [44][46]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: The growth rate of automobile production and sales decreased. In June 2025, the domestic automobile sales were 2.904 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13.8% [48][51]. - **Battery and Charging Piles**: The price of lead - acid batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,082,800; as of July 17, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group [53][57].