Core Viewpoint - The lead-acid battery recycling industry in China is rapidly growing, driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a projected recycling volume of 4.758 million tons by 2025, despite a slight decline in market scale due to falling recycling prices [1][9]. Overview - Waste lead-acid batteries are classified as hazardous waste, and their recycling involves a series of regulated processes to extract valuable materials like lead, plastic, and sulfuric acid, aiming for resource recycling and environmental protection [2][3]. Market Policy - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the recycling industry, emphasizing environmental protection and resource sustainability, which creates a favorable policy environment for the lead-acid battery recycling sector [4][5]. Industry Chain - The lead-acid battery recycling industry in China has established a closed-loop industry chain, focusing on upstream supply, midstream processing, and downstream resource application, with a trend towards intensive, resource-efficient, and green development [6][7]. Current Development - The recycling technology for lead-acid batteries has continuously evolved, achieving high maturity and resource utilization rates, with a significant and stable demand for scrap batteries driven by various applications in automotive, communication, and energy sectors [9]. Competitive Landscape - The lead-acid battery recycling industry is undergoing structural changes, with increasing compliance requirements and a concentration of market players. As of 2025, there are 2,210 companies in the industry, with no new entrants, indicating a trend towards consolidation and the exit of non-compliant operators [10][11]. Industry Representative Companies - Major players in the industry include South Power, Camel Group, and Yuguang Gold Lead, with significant processing capacities, such as South Power's 1.2 million tons and Camel Group's 860,000 tons per year [10][11]. Development Trends - The industry is expected to see increased regulatory scrutiny, pushing for compliance and standardization, while technological innovations will enhance recycling efficiency and environmental performance. The market will likely consolidate around leading companies, with smaller firms either exiting or becoming service providers [12][13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the lead price has dropped significantly, mainly due to the high - level surplus in the domestic lead market, the continuous opening of the lead ingot import window, and the imbalance between supply and demand [3]. - On January 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced plans to include recycled lead as an alternative delivery product. In the short - term, it intensifies the downward sentiment, but after the short - term sentiment, the lead price still has cost support. In the long - term, it will smooth price fluctuations, restructure the pricing logic, and shift the lead price to "dual - track pricing of primary and recycled lead", with the cost of recycled lead and the price of waste batteries becoming core variables [4]. - After the Spring Festival, the recent significant decline in lead and silver prices and the closure of the lead concentrate import window have led some primary lead smelters to plan for maintenance, and recycled lead enterprises have also returned to low production due to profit compression. It is expected that the pressure of supply surplus will be greatly relieved, and the lead price will be supported by cost, but the rebound space may be limited due to the lack of demand highlights [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - On January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange proposed to introduce recycled lead as an alternative delivery product (meeting the specifications of GB/T 21181 - 2025 ZSPb99.986 or ZSPb99.990). The new national standard for recycled lead (GB/T 21181 - 2025) was released on August 29, 2025, and will be officially implemented on March 1, 2026 [10]. - The main changes in the new national standard for recycled lead include changes in recycled lead grades, adjustment of impurity content, and an increase in the single - ingot weight specification [10]. - Incorporating recycled lead into the futures delivery system can make the futures price more comprehensively and truly reflect the actual supply - demand situation of the lead market, and more compliant recycled lead enterprises will have the opportunity to participate in the futures market. In the short - term, it suppresses the rebound, in the medium - term, it helps reduce delivery risks and smooth market fluctuations, and in the long - term, it reconstructs the lead price pricing logic [10]. Weekly Fundamental Situation Main Industry News - Zijin Mining Group plans to keep its 2026 production of zinc (lead) at 400,000 tons, the same as in 2025, and aims for 400,000 - 450,000 tons in 2028 [12]. - In 2025, China's motorcycle production and sales increased by over 10% year - on - year. Yadea led the electric motorcycle market with 921,100 units sold [12]. - Kunming University of Science and Technology's technology center completed the construction of an energy - storage system for a cloud computing center, marking an important breakthrough in the application of its aluminum - based lead - carbon battery technology in the energy - storage field of computing centers [12]. Lead Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - The national average processing fee for lead concentrate is 250 yuan/metal ton, unchanged from last week; the average processing fee for imported ore is - 150 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged from last week. The overall processing fee shows a slight downward trend [16]. - With the arrival of winter - storage supplies, the raw material inventory of smelters has increased. In December, the raw material inventory days of primary lead smelters were 27 days, up 1 day from November, and remained at 27 days in January, at a relatively high level [16]. - Due to the recent decline in precious metal prices, some smelters no longer accept the extremely low - price quotes of lead concentrate processing fees, but the processing fees of lead concentrates rich in medium - low silver remain stable [16]. Lead Concentrate Import - In December 2025, the import volume of lead ore and its concentrates was 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 1.4356 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%, with 50% coming from Russia [23]. - As of February 6, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week, showing an overall inventory - accumulation trend [23]. - Since January, the lead concentrate import window has been completely closed. Coupled with the decline in smelter demand during the Spring Festival, it is expected that the import volume of lead concentrate in the first quarter will drop to a relatively low level [23]. Primary Lead Production - In the week of February 5, the operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 61.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31 percentage points [28]. - Recently, with the support of by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid, the profit of primary lead enterprises has risen to about 2,000 yuan/ton, reversing the loss in October. Stimulated by high profits, the domestic electrolytic lead production reached a new high in January. By February 5, the weekly finished - product inventory of major primary lead delivery brands was 8,950 tons, a significant decrease from 28,200 tons at the end of January [29]. - In February, due to the Spring Festival and the significant decline in lead and silver prices, some primary lead smelters plan to carry out maintenance, and it is expected that the electrolytic lead production in February will decrease by more than 12 percentage points month - on - month [29]. Recycled Lead Production - In the week of February 5, the operating rate of recycled lead enterprises was 38.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. In January, the raw material inventory of lead smelting enterprises increased, and some recycled lead smelters increased production. Two smelters in East and Central China resumed production, boosting the recycled lead production in January [33]. - Since late January, the profit of recycled lead enterprises has turned negative again. Currently, large - scale enterprises have an average loss of about 200 yuan/ton, while small and medium - scale enterprises have a loss of more than 400 yuan/ton. Due to poor terminal consumption, the finished - product inventory of recycled lead plants reached a historical high in January [33]. - During the Spring Festival, the shutdown of enterprises was one week earlier than usual. Coupled with the decrease in the number of days in February, the recycled lead production in February decreased by about 110,000 tons. The resumption of work in recycled lead plants is mostly concentrated in March [33]. Lead - containing Waste Materials - This week, affected by the continuous decline in lead prices and relatively sufficient short - term raw material inventory, recycled lead smelters reduced purchase prices. Some small and medium - sized recycling enterprises became more active in selling due to fear of price drops, leading to a short - term price decline of waste lead - acid batteries [37]. - During the Spring Festival, the shutdown cycle of the waste battery recycling industry is similar to previous years. Market transactions gradually became light from early February, and most enterprises will resume operation around the Lantern Festival (February 24) [37]. Primary Processing End - In the week of February 5, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 65.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19 percentage points [44]. - In January, the finished - product inventory of lead - acid battery enterprises was 23.5 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous month; the finished - product inventory of dealers was 40.74 days, a decrease of 2.85 days from the previous month. The inventory pressure of dealers is still relatively high [44]. - In January, the terminal consumption of the lead - acid battery market was weak, the inventory digestion of dealers was slow, and pre - holiday inventory preparation was cautious. Lead - acid battery enterprises had high finished - product inventory, and their pre - holiday inventory preparation for lead ingots was limited, resulting in light transactions in the lead spot market [44]. Inventory Situation - As of February 11, the total LME lead ingot inventory was 232,950 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100 tons. There was a large - scale delivery of nearly 30,000 tons at the end of January. The overall LME inventory remained relatively stable at a high level [49]. - As of February 12, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 53,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons [49]. - As of February 6, the total SHFE lead inventory was 47,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,720 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots before the Spring Festival this year reached a historical high [49]. Structure Shanghai Lead Spread Structure - As of Wednesday this week, the domestic spot average was at a discount of 190 yuan/ton to the Shanghai lead main contract 03, basically unchanged from last week. The Shanghai lead market maintains a Contango structure with little short - term change [55]. London Lead Spread Structure - The outer - market LME maintains a Contango structure. Recently, the LME lead 0 - 3 discount has shown a slight widening trend. On February 11, the LME 0 - 3 spread was - 48.07 US dollars/ton [59]. Shanghai - London Ratio Change - As of February 11, the Shanghai - London ratio rose slightly to 8.46, excluding the exchange ratio of 1.22. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was around - 16 yuan/ton, the import loss narrowed, and the import window, which was closed at the beginning of January, is approaching to open again [62]. London Lead Position and Warehouse Receipt Concentration - The LME's FuturesBandingReport shows that the short - position concentration in the near - month is relatively high, and both long and short positions have increased, indicating intensified long - short competition [67]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the concentration of cash and tom during the delivery week is relatively high, and the warehouse receipt concentration has increased [66].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-12 下游逐步放假 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-02-11，LME铅现货升水为-50.95美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16575 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨 至16625元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化50元/吨至16650元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-11，沪铅主力合约开于16660元/吨，收于16740元/吨，较前一交易日变化75元/吨，全天交易日 成交29976手，较前一交易日变化-28124手，全天交易日持仓38060手，手较前一交易日变化-4235手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到16770元/吨，最低点达到16635元/吨。夜盘方 ...

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅上涨，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报16490元，高点16585元，低点16445 元，结算价16505元，收盘16545元/吨，涨50元，涨幅0.3%。今日沪铅2602主力合约成交量365手，持仓 量5645手减少120手。伦铅最新价报1959美元，跌6.5美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报16460-16560元/吨，均价16510元，涨50元；广东现货 市场1#铅报16435-16535元/吨，均价16485元，涨50元。今日现货铅市场报价在16375-16560元/吨之间， 对比沪期铅2602合约贴水220-贴水35元/吨，沪期铅2603合约贴水220-贴水35元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日铅价小幅反弹，源于宏观与产业层面的双重"静默"。宏观上，海外美股大涨利好 已消化、美元窄幅震荡，国内情绪稳健但无新增驱动，多空因素形成对冲；产业端则因春节临近，供需 双双收缩，现货交投已提前进入假期模式。在多空力量均衡的背景下，市场缺乏明确的方向性驱动。 春节供需双缩 铅市提前步入假期模式 临近农历春节，铅产业链供需同步收缩形成对冲，供需失衡矛盾暂未凸显，成为铅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a significant price increase driven by strong macroeconomic factors and marginal support from the industry, with expectations of improved demand due to domestic investment policies and a favorable global pricing environment [1][2]. Supply Side - The lead supply is currently contracting, with a general decrease in the operating rates of primary and recycled lead enterprises due to the upcoming Spring Festival and regular maintenance schedules [1]. - Despite low processing fees for imported lead concentrates indicating tight raw material availability, smelters are slowing production as pre-holiday stockpiling has been largely completed, leading to a temporary accumulation of raw material inventories [1]. Demand and Inventory - Downstream demand is experiencing seasonal weakness, particularly in lead-acid battery enterprises, which are reducing operations as the Spring Festival approaches [2]. - However, optimistic expectations for post-holiday demand, driven by domestic investment policies, are providing key emotional support for the market [2]. - Both domestic and international lead ingot inventories remain at low levels, effectively buffering the impact of short-term supply and demand weaknesses on prices [2]. Market Trading and Industry Chain - The market is entering a typical pre-holiday quiet period, with limited transactions and a focus on risk control rather than proactive production increases [2]. - The overall trading environment is characterized by a lack of activity, with macroeconomic sentiment and capital movements becoming the primary factors influencing short-term pricing [2]. Leading Enterprises Insight - Representative companies in the industry are showing stable growth amid cyclical recovery, with high-value-added businesses like precious metal recycling becoming core profit drivers [2]. - Future strategies are focused on expanding recycled lead capacity and entering high-purity metals and advanced materials sectors, although challenges such as cash flow pressure and sensitivity to lead price fluctuations remain [2]. Pre-Holiday Market Outlook - The lead price is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival, supported by macroeconomic benefits and tight inventory levels [3]. - However, due to stagnant physical trading and reduced market liquidity, price movements may be amplified by capital market sentiment [3]. Post-Holiday Layout Outlook - After the Spring Festival, the non-ferrous metal sector is anticipated to present significant layout opportunities, with a focus on the transmission and validation of macro policies to real demand [4]. - Key factors for the lead market will include the recovery intensity of downstream battery enterprises and whether demand in infrastructure sectors materializes as expected [4]. - Investors are advised to focus on two main lines: traditional cyclical leaders benefiting from industry recovery and pioneers in resource recycling and high-purity new materials with long-term growth potential [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, before and after the Spring Festival, the non - ferrous metal market showed a differentiated pattern. Macro factors dominated the price direction of non - ferrous metals, while the differences in the fundamentals of each variety led to the differentiation of inventory and consumption performance. The post - festival resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Copper - **Pricing and Supply - side Situation**: The pricing of copper is more inclined to the framework of "macro - led direction, supply rigidity provides bottom support". The short - term upward movement of copper prices is often driven by macro factors, and the mid - term support comes from the "rigidity" of the supply side. In January 2026, the copper mine supply was tight, and the spot TC continued to decline, reaching a record low of - 49.84 US dollars per dry ton at the end of the month [12]. - **Refining and Supply**: Near the Spring Festival, the refined copper smelting showed the characteristics of tight raw materials, stable production, and limited impact of maintenance. Although the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, the supply of recycled copper and waste anode plates was loose, supporting the high - level production of smelters. The estimated impact of smelter maintenance on refined copper production in January was about 20,000 tons. It is expected that the Yangshan copper premium will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the net import volume of refined copper will remain relatively stable [16]. - **Downstream Processing**: During the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper processing industry showed a co - existence of seasonal stocking demand and the inhibitory effect of high prices. The starting rate of refined copper rods recovered from 47.82% at the beginning of the month to 69.54% at the end of the month. The finished product inventory increased by 3.91% month - on - month, indicating that the actual digestion ability of the terminal market was still insufficient. The starting rate of copper cables increased slightly at the end of the year, with State Grid orders as the core support. The enameled wire sector was relatively strong, with the starting rate maintained at 79% - 83% [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the copper social inventory had reached 335,800 tons, and the pre - festival inventory was at a relatively high level. If the subsequent arrival increases, the downstream resumption of work is slow, or the spot maintains a discount pattern, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [18][19]. Lead - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the lead concentrate market was in a pattern of tight supply and rising costs. The processing fees were at a low level, and the production cost of smelting enterprises increased. In February, the supply and demand of the lead concentrate industry would enter a weak stage. After the festival, the supply - tight pattern of the lead concentrate market would intensify, and the processing fees would likely continue to run at a low level [20][22]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: The lead market showed the characteristic of "even weaker in the off - season". The consumer market of electric bicycle batteries was weak, and the inventory of dealers was high. The export orders of automobile batteries decreased. The weekly starting rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped to about 69% and continued to decline. After the festival, the resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable, and the actual restocking demand of the downstream would be gradually released after the Lantern Festival [22][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the lead ingot social inventory had reached 40,400 tons, and the inventory accumulation started earlier than in previous years. If the subsequent lead concentrate arrival increases, the resumption of work of lead - battery enterprises after the festival is slow, or the spot discount pattern continues, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [28][29]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Situation**: After New Year's Day, the price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract rose by 16%, but the price transmission was blocked, and the downstream consumption was severely suppressed. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened rapidly, and the aluminum rod entered a negative processing fee. The production of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Inventory Situation**: From December 18, 2025, to early February, the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots had reached 239,000 tons. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation this year may reach 1.4 million tons, and if the aluminum price remains high, the inventory accumulation may reach 1.5 million tons [40]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: After New Year's Day, the zinc ingot price rose by 15%. Although it was in the consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises were less sensitive to the absolute price of zinc, and the rigid demand for procurement still existed. The starting rate of downstream consumption remained strong and resilient until the end of January, and entered the off - season in February, which was in line with the seasonal performance in previous years [43]. - **Inventory Situation**: In 2026, the inventory accumulation of zinc started in February, about 15 days before the Chinese New Year, which was not much different from previous years. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival this year will be less than 250,000 tons, close to 200,000 tons [43][46]. - **Supply - side and Valuation**: The current smelting loss of zinc is at a historical high level. Although the by - product income is high, the comprehensive smelting profit is still partially in a loss state. The zinc price valuation is not high, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze if the inventory is quickly depleted after the festival [54]. Operation Suggestions - For copper, pay attention to the post - festival resumption of work progress and inventory depletion rhythm, and lay out long positions on dips [5]. - For aluminum, be vigilant against high - inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [5]. - For lead, pay attention to the release of restocking demand after the Lantern Festival, and mainly conduct range operations for the time being [5]. - For zinc, the smelting loss supports the price, it is recommended to go long on dips, and pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze [5].

有色情绪退潮， 产业现状偏弱 铅月报 2026/02/06 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：1月铅价表现显著弱于板块走势，1月5日至2月3日期间，铅价上探后大幅下跌，沪铅加权累计下跌4.00%。SMM1#铅锭均价 16400元/吨，再生精铅均价16425元/吨，精废价差-25元/吨，废电动车电池均价9925元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：上期所铅锭期货库存录得3.38万吨，内盘原生基差-140元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-55元/吨。据钢联数据，2月5日全 国主要市场铅锭社会库存为4.59万吨，较2月2日增加0.69万吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得23.29万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得1.58 万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-51.45美元/吨，3-15价差-142.1美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.222，铅锭进口盈亏为 26 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-05 企业逢低备货积极性仍差 铅价难有强劲表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-02-04，LME铅现货升水为-51.98美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16425 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至16500元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16400元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-25元/吨至16475元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10225元/ 吨。 期货方面：2026-02-04，沪铅主力合约开于16640元/吨，收于16590元/吨，较前一交易日变化-50元/吨，全天交易日 成交50833手，较前一交易日变化-21462手，全天交易日持仓58276手，手较前一交易日变化3527手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16670元/吨，最 ...

华安期货：2月3日铅供需双弱，铅价低位震荡 重要信息： 市场展望： 供需双弱，铅价低位震荡。 1、上期所就铅期货合约规则修订征求市场意见，拟引入再生铅锭作为可替代交割品，未来铅锭可交割货源预期增加。 2、据上海有色网信息，铅锭社会库存累积至3.67万吨，累库幅度收窄。 核心逻辑： 1、临近春节，部分原生铅企业计划检修，并且银价下跌使得副产品收益下滑，原生铅开工积极性下降；铅价下跌后再生铅企业开始 亏损，放假时间较去年提前5天左右。 2、节前终端订单量减少，铅蓄电池企业放假时间亦有提前，近期铅价下跌刺激采购略好转，但铅仍在季节性累库，累库幅度较上期 收窄。 3、近期贵金属价格大幅下跌，市场情绪蔓延至有色板块，沪铅价格同步回落，由于铅价处于低位，下跌幅度低于有色板块。 ...

一份年度业绩预告，揭示出储能龙头在行业高景气背景下的生存现实。 储能行业正在经历"冰与火"的洗礼。一边是国家政策强力推动、装机目标明确、市场需求旺盛的行业春 天；另一边是部分企业陷入亏损、资金链紧张、转型艰难的残酷现实。 2025年1月30日晚间，南都电源发布的业绩预告显示，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经 常性损益的净利润为亏损9.3亿元至12.9亿元。 断腕求生，弃铅转锂的战略豪赌 南都电源的亏损并非一日之寒。公司自2020年开始"弃铅转锂"的战略转型，计划从传统的铅蓄电池业务 转向更具前景的锂电池储能领域。 这一转型过程伴随着巨大的阵痛。2025年前三季度，南都电源实现营业收入59.11亿元，同比下降 24.80%。 营收下降的主要原因是公司对再生铅板块业务实施主动减产。为聚焦高附加值的储能与锂电业务，南都 电源对低毛利的再生铅板块实施收缩战略。 这一业务结构调整直接导致营收规模减少约20亿元。再生铅业务的营收占比从2024年的40%以上降至约 15%。 与此同时，公司的储能业务实现高速增长，营收占比从50%提升至约75%。 现金流"魔术"与利润黑洞 南都电源的财务数据揭示出一幅更为复杂的 ...