南华铅周报 ——上下驱动不明显，震荡为主 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号： Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号：F03145451 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月25日 点评 【盘面回顾】本周铅价偏弱震荡，报收在16780元每吨。国内五地铅锭库存为7.1万吨；LME库存为27.3万 吨。 【产业表现】由于铅价震荡运行，期间废旧铅酸蓄电池价格下跌幅度有限，且多数冶炼企业最终结算价格仍 按照下跌前价格执行，再生铅企业亏损区间并无收窄；截至2025年8月22日，规模再生铅企业综合盈亏理论 值为-445元/吨，中小规模再生铅企业综合盈亏理论值为-665元/吨。 【核心逻辑】本周价铅价维持震荡运行，多空持续博弈。周五夜盘受大盘带动，向上突破，但是驱动力度不 足回落。供给端，原生铅冶炼厂生产受预期需求旺季影响，生产意愿较强。再生铅由于成本支撑因素，同时 原料废电瓶依旧较为稀缺，再生铅冶炼端仍处亏损状态，挺价出售，整体开工率低位维持稳定。需求端，本 周铅蓄电池开工率为71.64%，较上周有较大改善。国内库存维持震荡，LME库存维持高位。短期内，基本面 僵持，观望下游和宏观 ...

南都电源最新股价报17.02元，较前一交易日上涨0.13元。当日成交量为45.15万手，成交金额达7.66亿 元。该股开盘报16.83元，盘中最高触及17.13元，最低下探至16.80元。 公司主营业务涵盖储能系统、铅蓄电池及锂离子电池的研发制造，产品广泛应用于通信、电力、数据中 心等领域。作为新能源储能领域的代表性企业，南都电源在固态电池技术方面持续投入，目前已建成中 试产线。 消息面上，南都电源在互动平台表示，公司固态电池中试线已实现小批量交付，但预计2025年度业绩不 会因此产生较大影响。半年报显示，公司上半年营收39.23亿元，净利润亏损2.32亿元，其中储能业务收 入占比显著提升。值得注意的是，公司经营活动现金流净额同比大幅增长233%，达5.91亿元。 资金流向方面，南都电源当日主力资金净流出5254.62万元，近五个交易日累计净流出5.62亿元。 风险提示：投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本文所提及股票及市场信息仅供参考，不构成投资建议。 ...

| | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-08-20 储降息预期，铅价建议逢低布局多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16725 | -100 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1973.5 | 2.5 | | | 09-10月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -15 | -5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 96382 | 3663 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -1384 | -433 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 6 ...

有色金属周报(铅) 供需僵持，铅价区间整理 2025年8月19日 宏源期货研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。当前国产矿报价相对稳定，但 | | | | | 富含金银的铅精矿及高银含量的银铅矿TC仍有下行压力； | | | | | 进口矿方面，TC再度下调，部分供应商TC报价在-100至 | | | | | 80美元/干吨，但实际成交价多集中在-60至-70美元/干吨 | | | | | 附近，炼厂采购更加倾向国产矿。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：由于终端消费不佳，废电瓶回收量有限， | 原生铅开工逐步回升，再生铅供给 | | | | 废电瓶价格略有松动，但依旧坚挺。 | | | |  | 供给端：前期检修的原生铅炼厂有所恢复，开工回升；再 | 因环保、亏损等因素，开工偏弱， | | | | 生铅方面，受成本倒挂及原料限制因素影响，开工偏弱。 | 需求端传统旺季尚未兑现， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-19 目前铅品种呈现明显供需两弱格局，旺季需求在蓄电池中并无明显体现，不过近期在宏观因素作用下有色板块整 体相对偏强，故目前铅价预计仍将在16,350至17,050间波动。 风险 下游维持刚需采购 铅价偏弱震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-08-18，LME铅现货升水为-43.24美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16675 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至16750元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16675元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化0元/吨至16700元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10175元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10475元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-18，沪铅主力合约开于16810元/吨，收于16775元/吨，较前一交易日变化-75元/吨，全天交易日 成交 ...

1. Report Title and Analyst Information - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Prices Maintain Range-bound Fluctuations [1] - Analyst: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with lead prices maintaining range-bound fluctuations. The consumption has not improved significantly, and the peak season performance is below expectations. Downstream enterprises only maintain rigid procurement, and the destocking of domestic social inventories is slow. However, the current domestic secondary lead smelters are all in a loss state, and the cost still provides some support for lead prices [4]. - Trading strategies include attempting high selling and low buying within the range for single-side trading, and temporarily observing for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: This week, the supply and demand of lead concentrates remained in a tight balance. The processing fee for domestic lead concentrates remained at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates decreased by 20 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The scrap battery market's scrap volume changed little, and smelting enterprises purchased on demand. The prices of lead-containing waste materials changed little compared to the previous period [4]. - **Smelting End**: The average operating rate of SMM's three-province primary lead smelters increased by 0.66% to 68.07% compared to last week. The SMM's four-province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 40.97%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week. The operating conditions of secondary lead smelting enterprises were relatively stable compared to last week, and the production of some enterprises fluctuated slightly with the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a slight decline in the regional operating rate [4]. - **Consumption End**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five-province lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, an increase of 2.05% from last week. The operating rate of lead battery enterprises recovered this week because some enterprises that took high-temperature vacations last week resumed normal production, but some enterprises continued to take vacations, with a maximum vacation duration of 10 days. Therefore, the operating rate has not returned to the level of late July. Next week, as other enterprises' high-temperature vacations end, the weekly operating rate will continue to rise [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from August 11 and an increase of 600 tons from August 7. The LME inventory on August 14 decreased by 4,700 tons to 261,100 tons compared to August 8 [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single-side trading can attempt high selling and low buying within the range; temporarily observe for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4.1.2 - 4.1.5 - The content mainly lists relevant data such as futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][15] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End 4.2.1 - 4.2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Lists data related to global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][25] 4.2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - Mentions the prices of lead-containing waste materials and waste batteries, as well as the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but specific data analysis is not provided [32] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End 4.3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but specific data analysis is not provided [39] 4.3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but specific data analysis is not provided [46] 4.3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but specific data analysis is not provided [48] 4.3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, as well as the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but specific data analysis is not provided [56] 4.3.5 - 4.3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the cost, profit, operating rate, and production of secondary lead enterprises, but specific data analysis is not provided [59][68] 4.3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export, but specific data analysis is not provided [72] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End 4.4.1 Lead Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead battery enterprises, dealers' finished product inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished product inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided [79] 4.4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, import and export of lead alloys and lead plates, but specific data analysis is not provided [82] 4.4.3 - 4.4.4 Automobiles, Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications - Lists data on automobile production, export, production structure, motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering, but specific data analysis is not provided [85][88]

Core Viewpoint - Nandu Power (300068.SZ) is experiencing a transitional pain period following its transformation, with significant revenue decline and net losses reported in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.923 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 31.67%, and a net loss of 232 million, compared to a profit of 185 million in the same period last year [2]. - In the second quarter, Nandu Power achieved a revenue of 2.78 billion, a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year, and a profit of approximately 34 million, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [3]. Business Segments - The decline in revenue is attributed to a proactive reduction in lead recycling production, with the recycling segment's revenue dropping by 72.33% to 759 million, and a negative gross margin of -11.02% [6][7]. - The company has diversified its operations into three main segments: new energy storage, communication and data center storage, and residential storage, focusing primarily on lithium batteries [5]. Market Strategy - Nandu Power is expanding its strategic partnerships with major domestic and international energy developers and equipment integrators, securing high-margin orders [4]. - The company is also focusing on the data center market, with revenue from this segment reaching 1.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.09%, although the gross margin for this segment has decreased by 10.21% [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic energy storage market is facing intense competition, leading to price wars and declining profit margins. The gross margin for domestic battery products was reported at 12.83%, down 11.41% year-on-year, while the overseas market showed a gross margin of 28.92% [12]. - Nandu Power is actively pursuing international markets, with ongoing projects in regions such as Australia, Europe, and North America, and is developing new markets in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East [12]. Industry Trends - The company is adjusting its battery recycling business in response to the growing trend of lithium batteries replacing lead-acid batteries, leading to a strategic shift away from expanding lead-related production capacity [8]. - A recent initiative by the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association aims to combat irrational pricing behaviors in the energy storage sector, with 149 companies, including Nandu Power, participating in this "anti-involution" movement [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand is gradually rising, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,981 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [2] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 93,535 lots, down 5,792 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,093 lots, up 672 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 62,225 tons, up 441 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory is 261,100 tons, down 575 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,675 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,840 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 43.24 US dollars/ton, down 2.37 US dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,104 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged [2] - The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.25%, down 2.4%; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,300 tons, up 1,500 tons [2] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 70 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [2] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,112.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,988.81 points, up 63.07 points; the monthly automobile output is 2,808,600, up 166,600 [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,647,000, up 73,000 [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump and Putin's meeting was considered constructive, and there is a high possibility of reaching an agreement on important aspects; the next meeting may be in Moscow [2] - Trump said progress has been made on the Russian issue and suggested Zelensky reach an agreement; the US envoy said Putin agreed to Ukraine's "NATO - like Article 5" security guarantee [2] - Zelensky will meet with Trump in Washington; European leaders will participate in the "Trump - Zelensky meeting"; sanctions against Russia will continue to be strengthened [2] - Trump will determine steel and chip tariffs in the next two weeks, and semiconductor tariffs may reach 300%; the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports will be expanded [2] 3.7 View Summary - The production of primary lead fluctuates slightly; the supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply side is tight [2] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in lead - acid batteries. Approaching the traditional peak season, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [2] - The inventory has declined slightly recently, and there is a possibility of demand improvement. The overall demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price [2]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance on August 18, with lead futures experiencing slight fluctuations, closing at 16,775.00 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates that the U.S. July unadjusted CPI year-on-year remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1%, leading traders to increase bets on a potential Fed rate cut in September, which is favorable for the non-ferrous sector [1] - Supply-side analysis reveals that the operating rate of primary lead smelters remained strong, while the operating rate of recycled lead slightly decreased but remained relatively low, with no improvement in profits for recycling enterprises, suggesting stable operations going forward [1] Group 2 - Demand-side insights indicate that the operating rate of battery manufacturers is weaker than in previous years, with July lead-acid battery finished product inventory days dropping from 26 to 21.8 days, while dealer inventory days increased from 39.9 to 44.6 days, indicating high levels of finished product inventory and significant pressure on end consumption [1] - Future market trends suggest that primary lead enterprises are generally resuming production, with environmental regulations in Anhui province having a diminishing impact on recycled lead, leading to a relatively loose supply of lead, while downstream battery consumption remains poor, putting short-term pressure on lead prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are inconsistent, and market risk appetite lacks sustainability. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of a slight increase in supply but lower-than-expected demand. High inventory levels put pressure on lead prices, while the relatively stable supply-demand gap at the cost end provides support. There are few new contradictions in the short term, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the integer resistance level above remaining effective [4][9]. 3. Summary by Section Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16,845 | 16,850 | 5 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,003.5 | 1,981 | -22.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.41 | 8.51 | 0.10 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 62,334 | 64,844 | 2,510 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268,375 | 261,100 | -7,275 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 3.59 | 3.94 | 0.35 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | -150 | -155 | -5 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 declined under pressure last week. The price rebounded but was blocked by the integer resistance level and then fell, closing at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. LME lead first rose and then fell, closing at 1,981 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.12% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 15, the price of lead in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets showed a downward trend. The inventory of LME decreased, while the SHFE inventory and social inventory increased. The delivery of the current - month contract led to an increase in inventory [7]. Industry News - As of August 15, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the average import ore processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period [10]. - Some lead - smelting enterprises in Henan may face air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3, which may restrict vehicle transportation [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratios, inventory levels, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [12][13][15][18][19][21][23][25].