1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Lead may continue to fluctuate weakly. The supply of recycled lead is slowly recovering due to ongoing losses, but the expected decline in demand during the off - season will intensify the pressure of lead inventory accumulation, and the inflow of imports will also contribute to this situation. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of recycled lead production and domestic inventory conditions [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume of lead concentrate in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year, higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. In April, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the import monthly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/dry ton month - on - month. The domestic lead ore weekly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2] Supply - In February, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. In February 2026, the output of recycled refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. As of the week of March 27, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. At the end of March, smelters in Yunnan and other places that postponed resumption of production gradually produced output, and the new production capacity in Xinjiang and Henan was ramping up, with a clear increase in supply. The lead concentrate processing fee (TC) remained at a low level, and the by - product silver revenue declined, squeezing the profit space of smelters and limiting the motivation for further production increase. The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 43.26%, a week - on - week increase of 3.69%. The price of waste batteries was firm, and the loss of recycled lead continued, with the loss margin narrowing slightly. Large factories in Anhui, Jiangxi and other places resumed production intensively in late March, driving the increase in the operating rate; but in Jiangsu, Hebei and other places, due to the intensification of losses, some small and medium - sized factories chose to reduce production or carry out maintenance at the end of the month. The operating rate of recycled lead may continue to climb slowly. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio rebounded, and the import of refined lead remained in a profitable state, and the overseas lead surplus pressure flowed into the domestic market [3] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces remained stable. Leading enterprises (such as Tianneng and Chaowei) maintained a production rate of over 80% or even full production to seize market share, but the operating rate of small and medium - sized factories has dropped to the range of 65% - 70% due to the decline in orders. On the raw material side, due to the fluctuating lead price and the approaching off - season, enterprises generally "buy on the rise rather than on the fall" and only maintain a safety inventory of 4 - 5 days; on the finished product side, due to the decline in the提货 willingness of dealers, the inventory days have increased significantly compared with February. April - May is the traditional off - season for lead consumption. With high finished product inventory, enterprises may shift from "production based on sales" to active production reduction, and the operating rate may decline [4] Spot - As of the week of March 27, the domestic lead spot basis changed from a premium to a discount, and the lead spot basis at the weekend was a discount of 65 yuan. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a discount of - 35.16 US dollars at the weekend [4] Inventory - As of the week of March 27, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 283,000 tons. The LME inventory declined from a high level and was at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 57,579 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 30, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 60,100 tons, a month - on - month increase, at a moderately high level [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Lead 3 Monthly Report, R & D Report of Non - ferrous Metals Sector [10][22][28] - Report date: March 31, 2026 [10][22][28] Group 2: Core View - The supply - demand contradiction of lead is not prominent, and the lead price may maintain a range - bound oscillation [4] Group 3: Fundamental Situation Lead Ore and Supply - Global lead concentrate production is presented in figures measured in thousands of tons [26] - Lead concentrate import profit and loss, import volume, domestic production, and total supply are shown in figures, with import volume in ten thousand physical tons and production in ten thousand tons [33][36] - The price of lead - containing waste and waste batteries is presented in figures measured in yuan per ton [45] Refined Lead - Global refined lead production, demand, and balance are presented in figures measured in thousands of tons [47][48] - China's electrolytic lead monthly production is presented in figures measured in ten thousand tons [55] - The monthly total and scale - divided start - up rates of primary lead smelting, lead concentrate processing fees, and primary lead smelting profit are presented in figures, with the start - up rate in percentage and profit in yuan per ton [57][59] - The monthly total and scale - divided start - up rates, cost, production profit, and monthly output of secondary lead smelting are presented in figures, with the start - up rate in percentage, cost and profit in yuan per ton, and output in ten thousand tons [65][70][72] - Refined lead import and export profit and loss, import and export volume are presented in figures, with profit and loss in yuan per ton and volume in ten thousand tons [76][78] - Domestic lead ingot total supply and monthly apparent consumption are presented in figures measured in ten thousand tons [81] - Domestic lead concentrate and lead ingot supply data from 2025 to 2026 are presented in a table, including production, net import volume, total supply, etc., with production and supply in ten thousand tons and growth rate in percentage [84] Downstream Demand - SMM lead - acid battery monthly and weekly start - up rates are presented in figures [87] - Lead - acid battery import and export are presented in figures [92] - Lead - acid battery enterprise and dealer monthly finished product inventory days are presented in figures [93] - Automobile, new energy vehicle, motorcycle production, and automobile export, new energy vehicle export are presented in figures [97][105][111] - Power project investment completion amount, communication base station construction volume, and lead alloy import and export are presented in figures [113][115] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report has a section on market outlook and strategy recommendation, but specific content is not provided in the given text [123]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a complex situation. The increase in purchases by battery enterprises and the inflow of imported lead ingots have an impact on the market. Although the spot market gets short - term support from downstream battery enterprises' low - price stockpiling and the low operating rate of secondary smelting enterprises, the high Shanghai - London ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in battery exports. Also, the previous high oil prices have put pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector, and there is a possibility of further decline in lead prices [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.57% to 16,553 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 113,100 lots. The LME Lead 3S rose 6.5 to 1,907.5 dollars/ton, with a total position of 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,325 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap lead. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons. As of March 26, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from March 23. The domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 14,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 135 dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: The Shanghai - London ratio after exchange adjustment was 1.256, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 591.16 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 41,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 460,000 tons, equivalent to 30.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operating rate was 62.81%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 114,000 tons, the secondary smelting operating rate was 30.00%, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 14,000 tons. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.92% [11]. - The visible inventory of lead concentrates and lead waste has increased. The primary smelting operating rate is stable, and the secondary smelting operating rate has recovered. The factory inventories of primary and secondary lead ingots and the social inventory of lead ingots have all declined. The spot market gets short - term support, but the high Shanghai - London ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in battery exports. There is a possibility of further decline in lead prices [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - Import Data: In February 2026, the net import of lead concentrates was 128,500 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.4% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 252,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.8%. The net import of silver concentrates in February 2026 was 148,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 17.4%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 328,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.3% [15]. - Production Data: In February 2026, China's lead concentrate production was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 9.7% and a month - on - month change of - 29.4%. From January to February, the total production of lead concentrates was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. The net import of lead - containing ores in February 2026 was 136,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 282,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.3% [17]. - Total Supply: In February 2026, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 226,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of - 17.2%. From January to February, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 499,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. In January 2026, the overseas lead ore production was 242,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.74% and a month - on - month change of - 11.97% [19]. - Inventory and TC: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 41,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 460,000 tons, equivalent to 30.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton, with TC stabilizing [21][23]. - Smelting: The primary smelting operating rate was 62.81%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. In February 2026, China's primary lead production was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 17.1%. From January to February, the total production of primary lead ingots was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3.3. Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Production: The waste lead inventory at the secondary end was 114,000 tons. The secondary smelting operating rate was 30.00%, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 14,000 tons. In February 2026, China's secondary lead production was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.9% and a month - on - month change of - 40.4%. From January to February, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - Trade and Total Supply: In February 2026, the net export of lead ingots was - 36,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2857.0% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to February, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 74,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 540.7%. In February 2026, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 537,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.7% and a month - on - month change of - 28.0%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 1,283,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 17.1% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.92%. In February 2026, the apparent demand for lead ingots in China was 474,400 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.6% and a month - on - month change of - 31.2%. From January to February, the cumulative apparent demand for lead ingots was 1,164,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.5% [38]. - Battery Exports: In February 2026, the net export volume of lead - acid batteries was 1,429,540 units, the net export of other batteries was 956,020 units, and the net export of starting batteries was 473,520 units, a year - on - year change of 16.4% and a month - on - month change of - 24.8%. From January to February, the total net export volume of lead - acid batteries was 3,330,960 units, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.9% [41]. - Inventory: In February 2026, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 23.5 days to 23 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 40.74 days to 33.35 days [43]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production drags down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of express delivery and take - out delivery scenarios drives the improvement of new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium - iron - phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of traditional vehicles provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increase in the number of communication base - stations and 5G base - stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In February 2026, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 62,900 tons. From January to February, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 107,000 tons [62]. - Overseas Balance: In January 2026, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of 64,400 tons [65]. 3.6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons. As of March 26, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from March 23. The domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [70]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 14,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 135 dollars/ton [73]. - Cross - market Structure: The Shanghai - London ratio after exchange adjustment was 1.256, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 591.16 yuan/ton [76]. - Position: The net short position of investment funds in LME lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic mine supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have a low willingness to purchase high-silver mines. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, supported by the demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reach 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price is treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract ranges from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 26, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$36.18/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,325 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,350 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,775 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,505 yuan/ton and closed at 16,460 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,200 lots, a change of -381 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position for the whole trading day was 75,091 lots, a change of -4,034 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,570 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,385 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,390 yuan/ton and closed at 16,365 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decrease compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 120 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 or 2605 lead contracts for ex-factory sales, and the prices with current-month invoices were relatively high. In Hunan, smelters and traders maintained premium sales, and the scattered orders were sold at a premium of 30 - 60 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales, with some rigid demand transactions. In the Tianjin market, holders quoted at a discount of 110 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 lead contract for self-pickup transactions. The lead price continued the slight upward trend, and downstream battery enterprises made rigid purchases. The regional transactions in the spot market were acceptable [2] Inventory - On March 26, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, a change of -5,300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 27, the LME lead inventory was 283,100 tons, a change of -50 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the losses of secondary lead enterprises and their delayed resumption of production support the lead price, downstream demand is weak, and the pressure of imported lead inflow persists [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year. Domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. The domestic monthly processing fee in March was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160--140 US dollars/dry ton, also with no month - on - month change. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150--120 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [2]. - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The output of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 20, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.59%, a week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 39.57%, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%. The price of waste batteries is firm, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have expanded, with possible production cuts and delayed resumption of production. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and refined lead imports are in a continuous profitable state, with overseas lead surplus pressure flowing into the domestic market [3]. - **Consumption**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces last week was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 0.46%. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. The terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is mediocre. Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. Considering the consumption off - season in April, it is expected that the domestic lead ingot social inventory will stop falling and start to rise in mid - to - late April [4]. - **Spot**: As of the week of March 20, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the weekend lead spot basis was a premium of 165 yuan. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 39.51 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 20, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 400 tons to 284,100 tons, with the LME inventory oscillating at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9,939 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 23, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decline, at a moderately high level [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply is loose, with high - level oscillation of LME lead inventory and deep spot discounts. Overseas mine supply is gradually recovering, but the release period is mainly in the second half of the year. Although the import volume of lead ore has increased significantly year - on - year, the recovery of domestic lead ore supply is still limited, and the domestic lead ore supply shortage has not improved, with processing fees remaining at a low level. Primary lead enterprises have high production enthusiasm, and the operating rate of primary lead has steadily recovered. Currently, the price of waste batteries is firm, secondary lead enterprises have large losses, and although the operating rate has increased month - on - month, the resumption of production of some enterprises has been delayed. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and the domestic import profit has expanded, with overseas lead surplus pressure shifting to the domestic market. - Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. The second quarter is the off - season for lead consumption, demand will weaken month - on - month, and inventory may rise again. - Overall, the large losses of secondary lead enterprises, their delayed resumption of production, and production cuts support the lead price. However, downstream demand is general, and under the pressure of imported inflows, the low - level oscillation of lead is difficult to change. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of secondary lead and the domestic inventory situation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak overseas and stable domestic, with a game between supply and demand. Overseas lead prices are dragged down by geopolitical factors, while domestic lead prices decline with limited amplitude. The increasing losses of secondary lead and the depletion of primary lead factory inventories provide phased support. There is a co - existence of high - pressure social inventory and downstream bargain - hunting replenishment, and the opening of the import window brings an expectation of increased supply. Terminal demand is structurally differentiated. Looking ahead to next week, lead prices may fall and then rise, and downstream enterprises will maintain bargain - hunting and rigid - demand procurement. Investors should pay attention to the pace of social inventory depletion and the actual arrival of imported lead and operate cautiously [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 23, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.51 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to 0.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,350 yuan per ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 9,800 yuan per ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,100 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,360 yuan per ton and closed at 16,395 yuan per ton, up 105 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 63,444 lots, a decrease of 13,162 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 89,207 lots, a decrease of 3,934 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,500 yuan per ton and a minimum of 16,320 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,495 yuan per ton and closed at 16,435 yuan per ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 23, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 23, the LME lead inventory was 284,075 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment rating is "Neutral". It is recommended to sell call options. The expected operating range of lead prices within the week is 1,6200 - 16,800 yuan per ton, and enterprises can carry out corresponding buying and selling hedging operations based on this range [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows the resumption of production of primary lead, production cuts due to losses in secondary lead, and an increase in the arrival of imported lead. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries has rebounded, but the recovery of terminal consumption is weak, and social inventories have continued to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import impacts are suppressing lead prices, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of a price stop - fall. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On March 18, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$45.31 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,550 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount changed by 0 yuan per ton to -15.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,600 yuan per ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan per ton to -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,875 yuan per ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,975 yuan per ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 10,200 yuan per ton. [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On March 18, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,635 yuan per ton and closed at 16,645 yuan per ton, a change of 45 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 54,361 lots, a change of -13,486 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 40,136 lots, a change of -11,026 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,785 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 16,595 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,590 yuan per ton and closed at 16,585 yuan per ton, a 0.39% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price fell by 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in trading, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was sluggish. [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On March 18, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 78,000 tons, a change of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 18, the LME lead inventory was 284,375 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day. [3] 3.2 Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can buy on dips in the range below 16,500 yuan per ton and conduct sell - hedging close to 16,850 yuan per ton. However, if it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is collectively de - stocking in the near future, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips. [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses various suggestions from representatives at the National People's Congress aimed at enhancing the automotive industry's high-quality development and addressing social welfare issues [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50] Group 2 - Suggestions include improving the rural electric vehicle market ecosystem to stimulate consumption, promoting battery swapping models, and enhancing the export of automobiles through standardization [5][6][7] - Emphasis on developing a senior-friendly transportation ecosystem and establishing a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle regulatory framework [8][9] - Recommendations for accelerating the legislative process for autonomous driving and enhancing the integration of artificial intelligence in the automotive sector [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50] Group 3 - The article highlights the need for a focus on technological innovation and quality competition rather than price wars in the automotive industry [47][48][49][50] - It discusses the importance of integrating global operations and localizing production to enhance competitiveness [49][50] - The article also emphasizes the necessity of upgrading quality standards and improving the entire supply chain to achieve high-quality development [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is rated as cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is in a weak and volatile state. On the supply side, the resumption of production of primary lead is advancing, the production of secondary lead is cut due to losses, and the arrival of imported lead is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of battery production is rising, but the terminal consumption recovery is weak, and the social inventory continues to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import impact suppress the lead price, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of the price stop - falling. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 17, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $49.25 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,425 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 250 yuan/ton to 16,450 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot price increased by 250 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On March 17, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,450 yuan/ton and closed at 16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 285 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 67,847 lots, a decrease of 6,165 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 51,162 lots, a decrease of 14,887 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,685 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,320 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. [2] Inventory - On March 17, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 78,000 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 17, the LME lead inventory was 284,375 tons, an increase of 75 tons compared with the previous trading day. [2] Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can buy on dips and conduct sell - hedging in the range from below 16,500 yuan/ton to close to 16,850 yuan/ton. If it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is de - stocking recently, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is under pressure and continues to be weak due to limited improvement in downstream demand, high domestic inventories, and imports. However, the expanding losses and slow resumption of production in the secondary lead sector provide some support to the lead price. Attention should be paid to the resumption of secondary lead production and the progress after secondary lead is included in the delivery system [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The domestic lead concentrate market is in high demand in winter, and the tight supply situation continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at low levels. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged month - on - month. The weekly domestic lead ore processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Primary Lead**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 13, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces increased by 4.11 percentage points to 56.97% week - on - week, and the supply continued to increase slightly. The by - product silver price is at a high level, and the smelting profit is considerable, so the production enthusiasm of primary lead enterprises is high [3]. - **Secondary Lead**: In February 2026, the production of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. Affected by losses and environmental protection, the resumption of production is far below expectations. The weekly operating rate of SMM is only 29.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.03%. Although large - scale smelters in Shandong and Jiangxi are expected to increase production this week, the high price of waste batteries and the low price of secondary lead have led to serious losses for secondary lead enterprises, and the situation of active production reduction and postponed resumption of production has increased. Starting from March 17, secondary lead will be officially included in the delivery system as an alternative delivery product, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the standard product. The pricing logic of Shanghai lead has changed to a dual - track pricing of primary and secondary lead, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation of the market [3]. - **Imports**: The Shanghai - London price ratio has rebounded, and the import of refined lead has been in a state of continuous profit. The overseas lead surplus pressure has flowed into the domestic market [3]. 3.3 Consumption - **Battery Enterprises**: Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 73.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. In March, major lead - acid battery enterprises have basically resumed normal production. The orders of electric bicycle and automobile battery enterprises mainly come from the post - Spring Festival replenishment of dealers, but the actual consumption improvement in the terminal market is limited. Dealers are not enthusiastic about purchasing, resulting in slow sales of new batteries and high inventory digestion pressure. Battery factories generally accumulate finished product inventories to a high level of 25 - 30 days. Battery factories are extremely cautious in purchasing lead ingots, and most enterprises only maintain a raw material inventory of 4 - 5 days, mainly using the "long - term order pick - up" or "on - demand replenishment" procurement model, and the spot transactions are extremely light [4]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory - **Spot**: As of the week of March 13, the domestic lead spot basis had a small premium, with a weekend premium of 95 yuan. The LME lead spot maintained a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 47.55 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 13, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 284,500 tons, and the LME inventory fluctuated at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 9,220 tons to 76,000 tons. As of March 12, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 77,700 tons, continuing to rise month - on - month and at an absolute high level in the past four years [4].