铅周报：铅蓄消费转弱 关注再生铅冶炼成本支撑 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 供应端，本周国产铅精矿加工费至300元/金属吨，SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费至-135美元/干吨。铅精矿市场整体平稳，进口矿偏紧并几无报价的现状持续，2026年长单方 面，多数贸易商仅能提供远期最少供货数量但仍无法确定加工费报价。国内矿贸易市场上，河南、内蒙古等地冶炼厂持续按需采购，银价高位回调后除个别矿山接受小幅回调 加工费弥补冶炼厂加工利润损失外，多数矿山和冶炼厂并未提及铅精矿加工费价格调整。江西、湖南、云南等地南方地区冶炼厂因铅精矿供应短缺出现生产开工下滑的情况并 未缓和。 ➢ 冶炼端，本周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均率67.7%，较上周环比小幅增加0.13%。河南地区原生铅冶炼厂产量 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251124：沪铅上方承压；沪锌震荡偏弱 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/24 | | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | 17,075.00 | | -0.29% | | | 沪铅期现价格 | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,165.00 | | -0.32% | | | 元/吨 | | 沪铅基差 | | -90.00 | | 5.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 升贴水-上海 | | 25.00 | | - | | | 美元/吨 | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 | -22.41 -85.30 | | 6.50 - | | | 价差 | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -5.00 | | 15.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | | ...

张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023261 冶炼高开工， 铅价重回震荡区间 铅周报 从业资格号：F03120988 2025/11/22 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：周五沪铅指数收跌0.31%至17165元/吨，单边交易总持仓7.53万手。截至周五下午15：00，伦铅3S较前日同期跌17.5至 1997.5美元/吨，总持仓15.96万手。SMM1#铅锭均价17075元/吨，再生精铅均价17050元/吨，精废价差25元/吨，废电动车电池均价 9975元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据钢联数据，国内社会库存小幅去库至3.64万吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得3万吨，内盘原生基差-90元/吨，连续合约-连 一合约价差-5元/吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得26.47万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得8.57万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-28.91美元/吨， 3-15价差-85.3美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.21，铅 ...

铅周报：国内社会库存逐步累库 关注宏观因素影响 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 供应端，本周国产铅精矿加工费至300元/金属吨，SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费至-135美元/干吨。进口矿市场部分招投标报价陆续报出，部分冶炼厂锁定了2026年的长单协 议，但相关加工费已跌至-160~-200美元/干吨，冶炼厂普遍谨慎观望。国内矿贸易市场上，河南、内蒙古等地冶炼厂持续按需采购；江西、湖南、云南等地南方地区冶炼厂 因铅精矿供应短缺出现生产开工下滑的情况并未缓和，云南地区某冶炼厂提及尽管低银铅精矿加工费并未下调。 ➢ 冶炼端，本周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均开工率为6 ...

研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。近期部分炼厂已锁定2026年进 | | | | | 口矿长单协议，加工费已跌至（-160）-（-200）美元/干 | | | | | 吨，炼厂普遍谨慎观望；国内市场来看，河南、内蒙古等 | | | | | 地区炼厂持续按需采购，个别炼厂提前付款并锁定2-3个 | | | | | 月后的铅精矿货源，TC报价整体偏弱。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：铅蓄电池报废端平稳，废电瓶持货商出货 | 随着沪铅2511合约交割结束，部分 | | | | | 货源重回现货市场，预计市场流通 | | | | 情绪好转，但随着炼厂开工提升，废电瓶价格持续坚挺。 | | | |  | 供给端：原生铅开工增减并存，产量小幅波动，部分炼厂 | 货源有所增加，下游因消费一般， | | | | 因原料不足开工有所下滑；再生铅因环保因素开工有所回 | 普遍以销定产为主，预 ...

| 铅锌日评20251117：沪铅上方承压；沪锌或有回调 | 指标 | 2025/11/17 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 17,425.00 | -0.43% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 沪铅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 17,495.00 | -0.88% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | 元/吨 | -70.00 | 80.00 | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 升贴水-上海 | | | 美元/吨 | -23.09 | 1.17 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -86.20 | 8.20 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -50.00 | -30.00 | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -10.00 | 10.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | -10.00 | -10.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 手 | 37,346.00 | -39.18% | 期货 ...

从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铅周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 伦铅偏强支撑 沪铅调整有限 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价冲高回落。宏观面看，美国政府结 束关门，但基于通胀的担忧，多位美联储官员发表偏 鹰言论，降息预期下调，同时国内经济数据持续疲软， 拖累市场风险偏好，铅价走势承压。 要点 基本面看，原料供应紧缺态势难改，内外铅精矿加工 费弱稳。河南地区维持环保管控，影响废旧电瓶拆解， 同时受铅价上涨影响，部分持货商捂货不出，带动废 旧电瓶报价小幅上涨，成本支撑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuehongyuan A, is involved in the recycling and utilization of lead-containing hazardous waste, focusing on the production and sale of recycled lead, which is a significant application in the downstream lead-acid battery manufacturing industry [2]. Group 1 - The company operates in the upstream segment of the lead resource recycling industry chain, specifically through the recovery and smelting of lead-containing hazardous waste [2]. - Recycled lead is primarily used in lead-acid batteries, which serve as important applications in both the automotive and communication sectors, such as starting power for vehicles and backup power for communication base stations [2].

Core Viewpoint - Wanli Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading activity, indicating positive market sentiment despite a decline in revenue and profit for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 13, Wanli's stock price increased by 2.08% to 13.25 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 2.031 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has risen 63.58% year-to-date, with a 2.71% increase over the last five trading days, 17.36% over the last 20 days, and 13.15% over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has seen a net inflow of 56.56 thousand CNY from main funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Wanli reported a revenue of 359 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -33.16 million CNY, down 32.86% year-on-year [2]. - The company has not distributed any dividends in the last three years, with a total payout of 15.5 million CNY since its A-share listing [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Wanli Co., Ltd. is located in Jiangjin District, Chongqing, and was established on July 18, 1992, with its shares listed on March 24, 1994 [1]. - The company's main business involves the research, production, and sales of lead-acid batteries, which account for 99.03% of its revenue [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and production has recovered, improving the supply shortage. Thus, the lead price is under pressure above [1]. - For zinc, overseas structural risks have weakened, and there is insufficient momentum for the zinc price to continue rising. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities brought by the recovery of the Shanghai-London ratio. In the medium term, the mine end will tighten in the fourth quarter [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 1.26% compared to the previous day [1]. - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was $2,092.00 per ton, up 1.21% [1]. Spread - The basis of Shanghai lead was -335.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195.00 yuan [1]. - The spreads of Shanghai lead in different months showed certain changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the continuous first contract being -60.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.00 yuan [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 55,843.00 lots, an increase of 80.99% [1]. - The open interest of the active futures contract was 50,539.00 lots, a decrease of 8.29% [1]. Inventory - The LME inventory was 225,225.00 tons, with no change [1]. - The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 24,686.00 tons, an increase of 3.86% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall. Some refineries have maintenance arrangements, and the operation of primary lead has a slight fluctuation. The operation of secondary lead has recovered to over 50%, and the supply has increased, but the inventory accumulation of refineries is not obvious [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is okay, and the demand has increased. However, due to high lead prices, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the previous short positions [1]. Zinc Price - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.22% compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.02% compared to the previous day [1]. - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was $3,072.00 per ton, up 0.10% [1]. Spread - The basis of Shanghai zinc was -140.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.00 yuan [1]. - The spreads of Shanghai zinc in different months also had changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the continuous first contract being -70.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.00 yuan [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 71,426.00 lots, a decrease of 12.58% [1]. - The open interest of the active futures contract was 105,905.00 lots, a decrease of 1.46% [1]. Inventory - The LME inventory was 35,875.00 tons, with no change [1]. - The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 70,890.00 tons, an increase of 0.53% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, but there may be a downward trend in domestic TC in October. The supply of refineries is expected to increase, and the export window of zinc ingots is expected to open [1]. - On the demand side, there is no significant improvement [1]. Trading Strategy - Wait for the opportunity to buy on dips after the callback [1]. Other Information - On November 11, the China Zinc Smelters Purchasing Team (CZSPT) held a quarterly meeting in Kunming, Yunnan, and released the guidance price range for the import zinc concentrate procurement US dollar processing fee before the end of the first quarter of 2026: 105 US dollars (average) - 120 US dollars (average) per dry ton [1]. - On November 11, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $117.04 per ton, and the open interest was 219,916 lots, a decrease of 750 lots [1]. - On November 11, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $20.89 per ton, and the open interest was 153,641 lots, an increase of 2,117 lots [1].