张世骄（联系人） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 有色氛围积极， 下游消费转强 铅月报 从业资格号：F03120988 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 2025/10/10 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：9月1日至10月10日期间，沪铅指数震荡上行，收涨1.57%至17140元/吨，总持仓减少0.46万手。伦铅收涨1.63%至 2026.5美元/吨。截至报告期末，SMM1#铅锭均价16800元/吨，再生精铅均价16775元/吨，精废价差25元/吨，废电动车电池均价 10000元/吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得3.01万吨，内盘原生基差-120元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-15元/吨。LME铅锭库存录 得23.61万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得4.96万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差-37.3美元/吨，3-15价差-74.2美元/吨。剔汇后盘面沪伦 比价录得1.193，铅锭进口盈亏为-358.36元/吨。据钢 ...

海晏河清，时雨逢春 ——4Q25铅观点与策略 东证衍生品研究院 有色金属分析师 魏林峻 从业资格号： F03111542 投资咨询号：Z0021721 铅四季度观点与策略 3. 基本面或强于三季度——锚定下游大厂战略与拿货节奏 • 沪铅评级：震荡 • 区间走势：【16500，17800】，窄幅震荡+阶段性中小级别行情。 • 核心逻辑：1. 供应矛盾放大——原生再生的原料紧缺问题均将更深演绎 2. 需求谨慎转好——10月旺季改善 vs. 透支消费成品累库+出口承压 • 4Q观点：铅精矿和废电瓶紧缺加剧，内需在政策提振消费背景下有阶段性转好预期， 出口需求或延续承压。沪铅震荡中枢或有上移，有可能会随着消费转好，而出现中小 级别上涨行情，波动率或较三季度有所放大，操作上低多安全边际更高，需重点关注 大厂生产战略。 • 交易思路：单边跟随需求阶段性低多，内外比价推荐以区间操作为主。 • 策略推介：单边：短期建议关注逢低布局近月多单机会，中线锚定需求变化。 套利：月差有阶段性转B可能，内外比价上方阈值或在粗铅进口窗口。 套保：锚定需求节奏，长线买入套保。 • 风险提示：下游生产计划变动，宏观风险，需求超预期疲软。 铅精 ...

铅周报 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2025 年 9 月 29 日 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 供应逐步恢复 铅价压力增大 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 铅周报 一、交易数据 | | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 9 月 19 | 日 | 9 月 26 日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | SHFE 铅 | 17150 | | 17110 | -40 | 元/吨 | | LME 铅 | 2003 | | 2001.5 | -1.5 | 美元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.56 | | 8.5 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment is cautious ahead of the holiday, leading to a decline in the Hong Kong stock market, which closed down 1.35% [1] - New tariffs announced by the U.S. on various imported products, including a 25% tariff on heavy trucks and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs, are expected to impact the market negatively [1] Company Performance - Pharmaceutical companies like Kelaiying and Yaojie Ankang saw their stocks drop over 7% due to the tariff news, although the impact on the pharmaceutical sector is limited as U.S. domestic companies bear the sales burden [2] - Boleton, focusing on electric heavy trucks, surged over 20% as it is not affected by the new tariffs [2] Automotive Industry - XPeng Motors announced its entry into five European markets, planning to launch new models and implementing a stock incentive plan, resulting in a stock increase of over 5% [4] - Chery Automobile is expanding its overseas market presence and has established a local development and global collaboration system, with a projected strong sales performance in various regions [4] Energy Sector - The National Energy Administration emphasizes expanding the use of green hydrogen and integrating it into various industries, which is expected to create new growth points in the renewable energy sector [5] - Wood Mackenzie forecasts that global wind power installations will exceed 170 GW annually over the next five years, with a peak of 200 GW by 2034, benefiting companies like Goldwind Technology [5] Gaming and Entertainment - The gaming sector is experiencing growth, with NetDragon leveraging AI technology to reduce costs and improve efficiency, leading to a stock increase of over 16% [6] Semiconductor Industry - The successful launch of a 12-inch silicon carbide substrate processing line marks a significant advancement for China's third-generation semiconductor industry, positioning companies like Jingrui SuperSiC as leaders in the field [7] Battery Industry - Tianneng Power's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 51.53% due to rising raw material costs, but the company is refocusing on its lead-acid battery business, which holds a significant market share [8] - The lithium battery segment showed a revenue increase of 174.6%, driven by demand in the domestic and U.S. markets, indicating potential for recovery in profitability [9]

宏观方面，短期美联储降息路径较为明确，考虑到前期市场已对降息充分计价，后续影响相对有限。 原生铅方面，原料供应偏紧已导致部分地区炼厂减产，但副产品价格较高导致炼厂减产力度有限，开工 率依旧处于近年同期高位，预计原生铅产量小幅下降。再生铅方面，随着生产利润修复和进口原料数量 增加，企业复产预期较强，从原料库存和排产计划来看，预计复产时间在10月上旬。 看向需求端，一方面，近期电动自行车电池需求增加，带动铅蓄电池企业开工率回升，铅锭需求同步增 长。另一方面，今年下半年电动汽车销售增速放缓，叠加汽车蓄电池替换需求有限，汽车行业需求表现 不佳。此外，汽车行业"抢出口"结束，四季度蓄电池出口下降的趋势较为明显。综合来看，汽车蓄电池 及出口对需求形成拖累，铅锭需求难以大幅增长，考虑到铅蓄电池企业备库节奏，预计下游采购需求在 国庆假期后有所转弱。 近期，受下游需求疲软和原料供应紧张影响，再生铅炼厂大规模减产，铅锭供应大幅收缩，但需求持续 增长，沪铅价格走势偏强。外盘方面，9月初美联储降息预期升温带动伦铅价格上涨。随着美联储如期 降息和美联储主席鲍威尔释放鸽派信号，伦铅价格回吐部分涨幅。 看向供应端，海外矿山方面，Endea ...

宏观方面，短期美联储降息路径较为明确，考虑到前期市场已对降息充分计价，后续影响相对有限。 近期，受下游需求疲软和原料供应紧张影响，再生铅炼厂大规模减产，铅锭供应大幅收缩，但需求持续增长，沪铅价格走势偏强。外盘方 面，9月初美联储降息预期升温带动伦铅价格上涨。随着美联储如期降息和美联储主席鲍威尔释放鸽派信号，伦铅价格回吐部分涨幅。 综上所述，10月之前铅锭供需维持紧平衡格局，铅价下方支撑较强。随着后续再生铅企业陆续复产，而需求缺乏进一步增长的空间，铅锭供 需转向宽松，铅价或面临回调风险。（作者单位：国元期货） 看向供应端，海外矿山方面，Endeavor矿山投产后发运量持续增长，Vedanta-Zinc India矿山检修结束、Aripuan矿山复工也将贡献部分供应增 量，海外供应或小幅增加。国内方面，虽然矿山生产利润较高，但开工率同样较高，进一步增产的空间相对有限，预计短期国内矿石产量保 持高位。综合来看，矿石供应增长空间有限，冶炼厂原料库存显著下滑，加工费持续下调，当前已有冶炼厂提前开始冬储备货，预计短期矿 石供需维持紧平衡。 原生铅方面，原料供应偏紧已导致部分地区炼厂减产，但副产品价格较高导致炼厂减产力度有 ...

Supply Side - The recent reduction in production at recycling lead smelters due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply has led to a significant contraction in lead ingot supply, while demand continues to grow [1] - Overseas supply may see a slight increase with the Endeavor mine ramping up shipments, the end of maintenance at Vedanta-Zinc India, and the resumption of operations at the Aripuan? mine [1] - Domestic raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly declined, and processing fees continue to decrease, indicating that smelting plants are beginning to stockpile for winter [1] Demand Side - Increased demand for lead-acid batteries from electric bicycle manufacturers has led to a rise in operating rates for lead-acid battery companies, which in turn boosts lead ingot demand [2] - However, the automotive sector is experiencing a slowdown in electric vehicle sales growth and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, negatively impacting lead ingot demand [2] - The trend of declining exports of lead-acid batteries is expected to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter, further constraining demand [2] Macro Perspective - The short-term path for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is relatively clear, but the market has already priced in these cuts, suggesting limited future impact [3] - Lead ingot supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance until October, providing strong support for lead prices [3] - As recycling lead enterprises gradually resume production and demand lacks further growth potential, the lead ingot supply-demand balance may shift towards surplus, posing a risk of price correction [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-23 下游节前持续补库 铅价高位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-22，LME铅现货升水为-43.72美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17000元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17025元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至17025元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975 元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-22，沪铅主力合约开于17150元/吨，收于17125元/吨，较前一交易日变化-25元/吨，全天交易日 成交24370手，较前一交易日变化-11605手，全天交易日持仓27432手，手较前一交易日变化-5311手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17170元/吨，最低点达到17075元/吨。夜盘方 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The primary lead ore's apparent inventory accumulation rate is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has declined again. Raw material shortages are suppressing primary smelting operations. On the secondary lead side, the price of scrap materials has dropped, the profit of secondary smelting has recovered, and operations have slightly improved. The downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years. After the pressure on battery inventory has decreased, downstream purchases have slightly increased. Both the domestic lead ingot factory inventory and social inventory have declined. After a long period of horizontal movement, the monthly spread of Shanghai lead has fluctuated upwards. It is expected that Shanghai lead will operate strongly in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.08% at 17,172 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 96,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 1 to $2,011/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 164,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,925 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: On the primary side, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. On the secondary side, the scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. In July 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,003,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In August 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 156,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 13.9% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to August, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,097,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.8%. In July 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,816,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and TC**: The port inventory of lead concentrate was 24,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 446,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $100/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Operation and Output**: The primary smelting operation rate was 65.98%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. In August 2025, China's primary lead production was 324,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.9% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to August, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,533,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.8% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Material and Weekly Production**: The scrap lead inventory was 87,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 29,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In August 2025, China's secondary lead production was 320,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 0.7%. From January to August, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,571,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.2% [31][33]. - **Import and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 4,516,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operation and Apparent Demand**: The operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.06%. In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 4,478,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In July 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 20.8925 million, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In August 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway has driven the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the relatively high operation rate of starting batteries. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 38,100 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 59,600 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 30 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 222,700 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 24,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $44.05/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $74.9/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.204, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 182.14 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead turned slightly net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The position perspective indicates a bullish trend [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy:暂缓 (No English equivalent provided in the context, this is a placeholder) [4] 2. Core View - Some companies report a slight recovery in downstream lead - battery demand, while raw material supply remains relatively tight. Multiple smelters are under maintenance in September, and the Fed's interest rate cut in September has been implemented. The lead price is currently in a shock pattern, with an expected fluctuation range of 16,960 yuan/ton to 17,320 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to conduct corresponding buy or sell hedging within this range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On September 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.43/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -15.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at -100 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1]. - **Futures**: On September 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,095 yuan/ton, closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,143 lots, down 5,815 lots from the previous day, and the position was 39,036 lots, down 3,159 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,170 yuan/ton and a low of 17,055 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,180 yuan/ton, closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the afternoon close. The SMM 1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton. In Henan, smelters mainly shipped long - term orders, with few spot offers. In Hunan, delivery brand lead smelters offered at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead, and non - delivery brand lead smelters offered at a discount of 60 - 30 yuan/ton. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders offered at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead. Due to pre - holiday inventory replenishment by downstream battery enterprises, the trading volume in some areas was acceptable [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, down 130 tons from the previous week. As of September 18, the LME lead inventory was 222,675 tons, down 2,675 tons from the previous trading day [3].