沪锡产业
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瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250805
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 09:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months according to the agreement with the US. In the fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and cost pressure, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined; the electronics industry is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recent tin price fluctuations have curbed market purchasing willingness. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with an expected range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 267,490 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,125 US dollars/ton, down 90 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract closing price of Shanghai Tin is - 480 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 26,388 lots, down 824 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 9 lots, down 293 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,900 tons, down 50 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 510 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,283 tons, down 10 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 267,000 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,320 yuan/ton, up 1,360 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 39 US dollars/ton, down 38.5 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,350 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Powell intends to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a governor after that. The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months according to an agreement with the US [2]