1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, while caustic soda dropped by over 4%. The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation in the Middle East, with expectations of inflation rising and potential impacts on various commodity prices. Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [6][7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on March 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, and lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, fuel oil, and pure benzene rose by over 4%. In terms of declines, caustic soda dropped by over 4%, and synthetic rubber and industrial silicon fell by over 2%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.33%, while the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.23%. In the bond futures market, all varieties rose. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:23 on March 30, funds flowed into the Shanghai gold 2606 and Shanghai silver 2606 contracts, and flowed out of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 2606 and CSI 2606 contracts [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end. Tensions in the Middle East may push up oil prices and reignite inflation, with some Fed officials sending hawkish signals. Global copper smelting capacity is shrinking, and the utilization rate of recycled copper smelting capacity has declined. In March, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but there are maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and imports may increase. Copper demand has increased, but terminal consumption in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors has declined. In the long - term, the supply - tight situation supports copper prices [9][11] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed high, rising by over 4% during the day. In March, the start - up rate decreased, and in February, imports increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, upstream production gradually increased, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium mine复产, which is a potential negative factor. In April, the production of lithium batteries increased, but the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a trend of accumulation, and downstream demand growth may slow down. The rise in the futures price is mainly due to supply - side disruptions, and the overall domestic supply of lithium mines still needs to be monitored for the domestic复产 rhythm. The situation in the Middle East may affect the price of lithium carbonate [12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the near - halt of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although IEA has released strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The U.S. has relaxed some sanctions, and Iraq has reached an agreement to resume oil exports. However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the risk of an oil price spike still exists [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the planned production in April decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, downstream construction rates mostly increased, and shipments increased, but they are still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly. The market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries due to the situation in the Middle East. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [15][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. On March 28, the start - up rate of PP enterprises decreased, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 28, the plastic start - up rate remained at around 80%. As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. New production capacity has been put into operation in 2026, and the start - up rate has continued to decline recently. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of plastic will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [19] 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The start - up rate of PVC increased, and the downstream average start - up rate also increased, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have increased. Social inventories have increased slightly, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. PVC has the expectation of anti - involution, and the upstream raw material supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, falling during the day. Domestic mine production resumed smoothly, but the output of clean coal decreased. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories, and coke production increased. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and market acceptance of high prices is low. The impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has weakened, and it is expected that the price will gradually return to the fundamental logic [22] 3.2.9 Urea - The urea spot market was stable on the weekend, and the trading activity was acceptable. Factories have pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices. Internationally, urea is in short supply, while in China, supply is relatively abundant. After the end of agricultural demand, the downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, and the inventory of urea factories has decreased significantly. It is expected that urea will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience volatile adjustments and suggests paying attention to the MA10 resistance level [3] - On the macro - front, the situation between the US and Iran is complex. Iran refuses the US ceasefire proposal, while the White House claims the negotiations are ongoing and productive [3] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase domestic tin ore imports. Tin ore supply tension shows signs of easing, but refined tin production may be affected as most enterprises have low raw material inventories. Import pressure is increasing due to growing Indonesian exports. On the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive up solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among holders, increased downstream buying at low prices, and significant inventory declines in the domestic market, while LME inventory has increased and the spot premium has decreased [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 348,790 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3,640 yuan; the 5 - 6 month contract closing price is - 180 yuan, with an increase of 180 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 44,820 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 1,030 US dollars. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai Tin is 14,757 lots, a decrease of 4,137 lots. The net holding of the top 20 futures is - 6,655 lots, an increase of 498 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 8,780 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 10,042 tons, a decrease of 2,472 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant is 7,757 tons, a decrease of 387 tons [3] 现货 Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 352,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,800 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 354,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,660 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 5,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 9,440 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 146 US dollars/ton, an increase of 99 US dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 341,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,150 yuan, and its processing fee is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 345,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,150 yuan, and its processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly production of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, an increase of 757.7 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 224,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,220 yuan. The cumulative production of tinplate (strip) is 1.6742 million tons, an increase of 145,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons [3] Industry News - The situation of US - Iran negotiations is uncertain. Iran refuses the US ceasefire proposal, but the White House says the negotiations are ongoing and productive. Iran's military is prepared for further escalation of the situation [3] - Iran states that non - belligerent countries' ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines resumes new booking business to some Middle - East countries, but its ships will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for now [3] - As of the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China is 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. The installed capacity of solar power generation is 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%; the installed capacity of wind power is 650 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [3] - A Federal Reserve official believes that the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy and suggests gradual interest rate cuts this year. The overall inflation forecast for this year is raised to 2.7% due to the impact of oil prices [3] - European Central Bank President Lagarde says the ECB will take decisive action if energy cost surges lead to broader inflation, and is currently assessing the impact of the Middle - East situation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a shock adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at MA10 [3]. - On the macro - front, Trump claims productive dialogue with Iran, delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure and negotiating a broader agreement. On the fundamental side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, the supply shortage is showing signs of alleviation, the production of refined tin will gradually recover but may be affected, the import pressure is increasing, the demand in the AI field is strong, the spot premium is high, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is warming, and the inventory is decreasing significantly while LME inventory is increasing and the spot premium is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 347,970 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19,670 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May - June contract of Shanghai tin is 100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 44,500 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,660 US dollars/ton; the main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 21,087 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,897 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 6,796 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 268 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 8,805 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 tons [3]. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,042 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,472 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin are 635 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75 tons [3]. - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 8,552 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 426 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,250 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,250 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 13,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,230 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 266 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 31 US dollars/ton [3]. - The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 17,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 700 yuan/ton; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 325,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 329,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 12,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 757.7 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,700 yuan/ton; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6742 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 145,500 tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 139,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 59,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. Trump claims a "strong" dialogue with Iran, forming key points of an agreement and suspending the attack on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days, while Iran denies the dialogue [3]. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a 17% year - on - year increase, and aims to complete 23 billion yuan of investment in the first quarter, a 35% year - on - year increase [3]. - US Vice - President Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the negotiation with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee believes inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates but still retaining the space for rate cuts this year; Milan thinks rate hikes may be needed in case of second - round inflation effects and wage increases; Daly believes excessive forward - looking guidance creates a false sense of certainty and still expects four rate cuts in 2026 [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The report expects Shanghai tin to undergo low - level adjustments and suggests paying attention to whether it can stabilize between 320,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 328,300 yuan/ton, down 14,180 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract of Shanghai tin is 60 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan - LME 3 - month tin is at 42,840 US dollars/ton, down 1,060 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 24,984 lots, down 2,200 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 7,064 lots, up 26 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 8,920 tons, down 35 tons - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,042 tons, down 2,472 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 710 tons, up 145 tons - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,978 tons, down 508 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 341,450 yuan/ton, down 11,950 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 342,450 yuan/ton, down 10,560 yuan - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 2,230 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 235 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,100 tons, down 700 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 325,450 yuan/ton, down 11,950 yuan - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 329,450 yuan/ton, down 11,950 yuan - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, up 757.7 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 217,600 yuan/ton, down 7,500 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6742 million tons, up 145,500 tons - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 139,600 tons, down 5,900 tons [3] Industry News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various tools to maintain sufficient liquidity - China's Ministry of Finance will allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones, increasing direct and inclusive policies for consumers - Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and threatened to destroy its power plants. The US is planning to seize Iran's "nuclear reserves", and the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground forces to Iran [3] Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - front, the US is taking actions against Iran. On the fundamental side, the supply situation is changing. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase domestic tin ore imports. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a possible缓解 of the supply shortage. - On the smelting side, the output of refined tin will gradually recover after the Chinese New Year, but most enterprises have low raw material inventory, and some external - ore - purchasing capacities are at a loss, affecting the output of refined tin. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window has opened, and the import pressure has increased. - On the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, holders are reluctant to sell, the spot premium exceeds 2,500 yuan/ton, downstream purchasing at low prices has increased, and inventory has decreased significantly, while LME inventory has increased and the spot premium has decreased. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has declined under pressure, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3]

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by the Iran situation, and the volatility of various commodities is expected to increase [6][9]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions, such as some commodities are expected to be bullish, some are expected to be bearish, and some are expected to be volatile [14][16][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 140 billion yuan. The US CPI data was released. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond market is expected to face certain pressure, so it is necessary to be cautious [5][6]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities [8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold rose and silver fell. In February 2026, global physical gold ETFs continued to flow in. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The rebar price may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [13][14]. 3.5 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may have a positive impact on prices, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [16]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and coke demand is under pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [18]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The cost of ferroalloys is at a low level with limited downward space, and the supply is in a state of over - supply. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [20]. 3.8 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in net long positions in the US crude oil futures market shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a significant impact on global energy supply, and the crude oil price still has support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the crude oil main contract [21][22]. 3.9 Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. The downstream factories of polyolefins resumed production, and the demand for replenishment increased. The cost support was enhanced, and the market sentiment improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [24][25]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The core driving force is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, which drives up the cost of butadiene. There are maintenance plans for some devices in March. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [27][28]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict drives up the cost of synthetic rubber, increasing the expected substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main producing areas are in the low - production season, and the supply is tight. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29][30]. 3.12 PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The core driving force is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts and the seasonal off - season when domestic spring demand has not fully started. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [31][33]. 3.13 Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and international supply - demand mismatches. The global urea production capacity has a hard gap, and China's domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [34][35]. 3.14 PX - The previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, and the downstream polyester and textile terminals are resuming work. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations in the short term, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [36][37]. 3.15 PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand expectation in March may improve. It is expected to run strongly with PX and oil prices, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [38]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The short - term Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost may change sharply. The polyester industry chain is in a high - mood state. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, but the high inventory may limit the increase [39][40]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract rose. The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained, and the loom load is slightly rising. It is still trading on the cost - side logic, and the market may be volatile, so caution is needed [41]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose. The bottle chips supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate is increasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations following the cost side, and caution is needed [42][44]. 3.19 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash main 2605 contract rose. The supply of soda ash is abundant, the demand is general, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to risk control [45][46]. 3.20 Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main 2605 contract rose. The glass industry is in the stage of active capacity reduction, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to position control [49][50]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda main 2605 contract rose. The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, and there are maintenance plans for some factories in March. The price has a certain support due to valuation repair and downstream profit transmission, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the price and sales of liquid chlorine, export orders, and downstream price acceptance [51][52]. 3.22 Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp main 2605 contract fell. The domestic pulp production may decrease, the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of softwood pulp fluctuates with the futures, and the cost of hardwood pulp has support, but the downstream demand has not followed up. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil and commodities, downstream paper mill procurement rhythm, and capital trends [53][54]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing. The consumption is in the off - season but not weak, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [55]. 3.24 Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the domestic electrolytic copper production is restricted by raw materials and maintenance. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range [56][57]. 3.25 Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose. The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the geopolitical conflict affects the supply of bauxite. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The aluminum price is expected to run strongly [59][60]. 3.26 Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The production of refined zinc is increasing moderately, the import is in a net inflow, the downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately, and the zinc price may be under pressure and fluctuate [61][62]. 3.27 Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose. The production of primary lead is gradually recovering, the production of secondary lead is slow to recover, and the battery enterprises are basically fully resumed. The lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [63][64]. 3.28 Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell. The US - Iran conflict and the military conflict in Congo affect the supply of tin. The demand in the emerging fields supports the price, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [65][66]. 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, and the nickel production cost is expected to rise. The downstream consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in a state of over - supply. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The USDA report slightly adjusted the global soybean production and inventory, and the soybean supply - demand balance is expected to improve. The domestic soybean import is slowing down, and the oil mill's profit is rising. If the Middle East conflict continues to rise, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [68][69]. 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory decreased in February, and the export volume increased in March. The domestic palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. China has adjusted the import tariff policy for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are in a state of de - stocking. It is recommended to wait and see [72][74]. 3.33 Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton increased in position and rose, but the upward space is limited. The USDA forum expects a global cotton production reduction in the new year, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [75][77]. 3.34 Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng sugar ran strongly with fluctuations. India's sugar production is expected to decrease, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [78][79]. 3.35 Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The current spot market is stable, and the inventory is low and of poor quality. The apple price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term [81][82]. 3.36 Pigs - The previous trading day, the main pig contract fell. The national pig price is in a state of grinding the bottom, the supply is abundant, and the consumption is weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume, and short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [83][84]. 3.37 Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a high level, and the feed cost may increase. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions [85]. 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, the new - season corn cost may be revised down, and the wheat substitution effect may be strengthened. The corn price may face upward pressure in the short term, and put - option opportunities can be considered. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86][87]. 3.39 Logs - The previous trading day, the main log 2605 contract closed flat. The shipping cost of imported coniferous logs increased, and the downstream demand improved. The sentiment in the energy - chemical market eased, and the shipping cost support for the log market may weaken. Attention should be paid to the foreign - market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream terminal consumption [88][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience short - term shock adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the support of MA60 [3][4] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 392,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the closing price of the April - May contract for Shanghai tin is - 360 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 50,910 US dollars/ton, an increase of 815 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 33,982 lots, a decrease of 994 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 10,632 lots, an increase of 307 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 8,015 tons, a decrease of 10 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 11,663 tons, a decrease of 590 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 10,031 tons, an increase of 322 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 394,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,750 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 393,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,940 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 6,720 yuan/ton; the import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,600 tons, a decrease of 6,720 tons; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 26 US dollars; the average price of tin concentrates (40%) processing fee is 17,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (40%) is 378,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) is 382,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of tin concentrates (40%) processing fee is 17,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (40%) is 378,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) is 382,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 16,050 yuan; the average price of tin concentrates (60%) processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 249,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,780 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] Industry News - Trump said the war with Iran would end "soon" but not this week, and threatened Iran if it blocked oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz; Netanyahu said the action against Iran was not over; Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said Iran's priority was "decisive defense" and the end of the war was in Iran's hands; in the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%, with exports of 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2%, and imports of 3.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.1%; China's imports and exports to the US decreased by 16.9%, while those to ASEAN and the EU increased by about 20%; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action; the State Council proposed the 2026 central and local budget draft, and the 14th National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee suggested preventing special bond repayment risks [3] Key Points of View - On the macro - level, Iran doesn't trust US promises and the military action has entered a new stage, while the US is planning to provide escort and Trump warns Iran not to lay mines. On the fundamental level, on the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, and the shortage of tin ore supply has shown signs of alleviation. At the smelting end, most enterprises' raw material inventories are still low, and most enterprises are at a loss. Coupled with more year - end overhauls, the output of refined tin is still limited, but there is pressure for output to rebound after the Chinese New Year. In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window is gradually opening, and import pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has rebounded to 1,500 yuan/ton; LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has rebounded. Technically, the position has decreased and the price is in a range - bound shock, and the bullish sentiment has declined [3] Key Concerns - No news today [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic macro - environment in China is generally favorable, serving as the core support for risk assets in Q1. Overseas, the focus is on the Walsh trade, US tariff developments, and Middle East geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to moderately increase risk appetite and enhance offensive positioning within a balanced framework [7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 February Review of Major Assets - Global major asset classes in February shifted towards "structural divergence". In the equity market, A - shares outperformed overall with style differences, mid - cap and small - to - mid cap segments led, while large - cap indices lagged. Hong Kong stocks were weak, tech sector retreats were notable. Developed markets in overseas equities diverged, emerging markets performed better. In the bond market, rate - sensitive assets were stable. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar strengthened, pressuring non - dollar currencies. In the commodity market, it was overall weak but with structural features [14][15][18]. 3.2 Market Focus: The Unfolding of the "Walsh Trade" - The market's perception of Kevin Walsh's trading legacy has evolved. The "Walsh Trade" was initially characterized by a bull flattening of the yield curve. The key contention is the feasibility of "rate cuts + QT". If QT triggers a liquidity crisis, it may invalidate Walsh's policy framework. His policy mix is more supportive of growth - oriented equities but may pressure long - dated bonds [22][24][25]. 3.3 Macro Environment Outlook 3.3.1 Overseas Macro - Global manufacturing PMI edged up in January to 50.9. US macro data in January showed signs of a "Goldilocks" scenario with inflation softening, unemployment rate declining, and employment data improving. Q4 GDP missed expectations but the effects of rate cuts may be materializing. Tariff developments added market uncertainty, and the legal effect of a court decision on tariffs may take effect from mid - March to early April [26][30][33]. 3.3.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic outlook will remain generally supportive in Q1, with favorable investment environment for risk assets. Policy expectations for a strong start to the 15th Five - Year Plan and anticipated inflation rebound are the core themes, and economic structural transformation and upgrading are long - term drivers [36]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Assets 3.4.1 Stock Index - In March, the domestic equity market is likely to continue its volatile yet upward movement. Policy acceleration, recovering inflation, and economic structural transformation are the driving factors. It is recommended to overweight IC [39]. 3.4.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In March, geopolitical trading and tariff adjustments will drive the market. Precious metals may trend higher with gold receiving stronger impetus from geopolitical factors [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Geopolitical factors may support non - ferrous metals. Prices may be volatile but biased higher. Copper, aluminum, and tin may see price centers shift upward [50]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In March, there will be a tug - of - war between inventory trends and policy expectations. Ferrous metals are expected to trade in wide ranges, and iron ore faces significant downside pressure [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: Oil prices will enter a validation phase for geopolitical supply disruption concerns. Chemical products have limited downside and merit attention [59]. 3.4.3 Bonds - In March, short - duration bonds are likely to outperform medium - to long - duration bonds, and overall asset payoff is modest. Future rate - cut space appears limited [64]. 3.5 Strategic Asset Allocation Recommendations - In March, moderately increase risk appetite and adopt a more aggressive posture on a balanced allocation framework. Overweight mid - cap style in domestic equity indices (focus on IC), have a neutral stance on government bonds with a standard long position in the short end (focus on TS), overweight non - ferrous metals, have a standard long in the chemical chain, and a standard short in ferrous metals. Overweight gold futures and have a standard position in silver futures [68][69][70].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the tight supply situation shows signs of alleviation. The production of refined tin is currently limited but faces upward pressure after the Spring Festival. The import pressure is increasing, while the demand in the AI field is expected to drive the growth of solder demand. The tin price has recently declined, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, the inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has rebounded. It is expected that Shanghai tin will adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the competition at the 400,000 - yuan mark [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 391,810 yuan/ton, down 9,320 yuan; the closing price of the April - May contract of Shanghai tin is 210 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is 51,200 US dollars/ton, up 1,415 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 38,756 lots, down 703 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 10,146 lots, down 205 lots; LME tin total inventory is 7,780 tons, up 50 tons; the inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 12,253 tons, up 1,239 tons; the LME tin canceled warrants is 345 tons, up 35 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,609 tons, down 289 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 406,850 yuan/ton, down 1,650 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 404,890 yuan/ton, down 6,330 yuan; the basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 15,040 yuan/ton, up 7,670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 62 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars; the import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 392,500 yuan/ton, down 4,450 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 396,500 yuan/ton, down 4,450 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 257,070 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, up 138,700 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, down 45,000 tons [3] 6. Industry News - The government work report shows that China's new - quality productivity has developed steadily, with rich scientific and technological innovation achievements. The 14th National People's Congress Fourth Session held its first press conference, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft will be reviewed. The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the previous level, and the US may adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week. Affected by the Spring Festival, China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points; comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points. China's February S&P manufacturing PMI was 52.1, service PMI was 56.7, and comprehensive PMI was 55.4 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - As of the close on March 4, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for the third consecutive day. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%. On the other hand, tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures also declined significantly. The prices and trends of various futures contracts were affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and seasonal factors [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Gainers**: Shipping routes to Europe, SC crude oil, and fuel oil hit the daily limit for three consecutive days. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 11%, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and polypropylene (PP) rose over 5%, and plastics and propylene rose nearly 4% [5]. - **Losers**: Tin futures fell over 5%, and polysilicon, platinum, silver, and gold futures fell over 4%, 4%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, also declined, while most treasury bond futures rose, except for the 30-year treasury bond futures [5][6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:19 on March 4, funds flowed into aluminum, fuel oil, and 10-year treasury bond futures, while large amounts of funds flowed out of gold, CSI, and CSI 1000 futures [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper prices opened low and rose slightly but remained weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increased inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of the Fed's interest rate cuts, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year. It is expected to reach a record high in March. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper is expected to rise, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. High copper prices have led to strong resistance from downstream consumers, and the demand for copper products is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased. Production is expected to decline in February due to seasonal and holiday factors. The overall inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals are short-term tight. The conflict between the United States and Iran has affected the delivery of energy storage batteries in the Middle East, and the export of terminals has been impacted. Although the peak season is approaching, the increase in demand is limited, and the price has some support [10]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and further production increase plans are to be determined. EIA data showed a significant build-up of crude oil inventories in the United States. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to disruptions in oil transportation and production. Iraq has cut production, and Qatar has stopped LNG production. Trump's offer to provide insurance and escort for oil tankers has caused oil prices to fluctuate. It is expected that oil prices will remain strong in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a significant impact on oil price volatility [11][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly last week and is at a low level compared to previous years. In March, domestic asphalt production is expected to increase month-on-month but decrease year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the overall demand remains weak. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, but the market is worried about a shortage of raw materials in March due to geopolitical factors. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow the increase in crude oil prices [13][15]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased seasonally, and the enterprise开工率 remained at a relatively low level. The proportion of standard-grade wire production increased. After the Spring Festival, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is currently at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has boosted the price of PP. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. It is expected that PP prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [16]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The开工率 of plastic increased after the restart of some maintenance devices and is currently at a neutral to high level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased seasonally, and the inventory of petrochemical enterprises has been decreasing and is at a neutral level. The increase in crude oil prices has had a positive impact on the price of plastic. Although the domestic supply and demand situation has improved slightly, the market expects a rebound in the chemical industry. The import of PE from Iran accounts for a small proportion of the total, but the import from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion. It is expected that plastic prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [17][18]. 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region continued to decline. The开工率 of PVC increased and is at a neutral to high level. After the Spring Festival, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased but is still lower than the same period last year. The export of PVC is expected to be low in March due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the anti-subsidy investigation by India. The social inventory of PVC is still high, and the real estate market continues to adjust. Although the PVC market has a weak reality, it has strong expectations due to policy and maintenance expectations. It is expected that PVC prices will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption [19]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices opened high and closed low. Domestic mines are gradually resuming work, and the inventory of coking coal mines has increased. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. After the Spring Festival, the production of molten iron in steel mills has increased slightly, but the reduction of emissions during the Two Sessions may affect short-term production. The real estate market has introduced some stimulus policies, but the performance of the terminal market still needs to be observed. After the impact of geopolitical conflicts in Iran on the coal market is realized, the price is expected to return to the fundamentals of loose supply and demand and will be under pressure if the macro sentiment remains stable [20][21]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices opened high, fluctuated, and closed slightly higher. The trading volume decreased, and the price was relatively stable. The daily production of urea has reached around 220,000 tons, and there are no long-term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. After the Lantern Festival, compound fertilizer factories have resumed work, but the开工 rate in Hebei has been affected by environmental protection. The inventory of urea has started to decrease due to the continuation of agricultural demand and the increase in industrial demand. Although the international urea price is affected by the situation in the Middle East, it has little impact on the domestic market. The price of urea is expected to be range-bound, and attention should be paid to the possibility of a price increase driven by the energy and chemical sector [22].