（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月26日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪铜涨0.44%，不锈钢涨0.35%，沪铅 涨0.18%，沪锡涨0.07%，沪镍涨0.05%，沪铝持平，沪锌跌0.27%，氧化铝跌0.60%。 ...

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年8月25日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 265930 | 245000-263000 | 14.36% | 26.1% | 锡价在近期小幅冲高后回落，国内冶炼厂减产短期推升了周内的锡价，后发现影响有限，价格再度回到震荡 区间。短期来看，锡价或仍然以震荡为主。宏观方面，美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行年会上的发言使得有色 金属板块估值抬升，其超涨可能在未来1个交易日内修正。基本面，锡锭社会库存的连续两周回落或为锡价提 供上升的动力，需求端锡焊料企业开工情况尚可，在价格不高于27万元每吨的情况下，仍有接货意愿。 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 2. 半导体板块仍处于扩张周期。 3. 缅甸复产不及预期。 source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on August 22, with some metals experiencing gains while others saw declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.58% [1] - Shanghai copper rose by 0.20% [1] - Shanghai lead gained 0.18% [1] - Alumina saw a slight increase of 0.06% [1] - Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.16% [1] - Stainless steel fell by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai tin dropped by 0.30% [1] - Shanghai nickel declined by 0.36% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, with most believing inflation risk outweighs employment risk. In the tin market, despite Myanmar's restart of mining permit approvals, actual tin ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, production rebounded in July due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most maintaining only essential production and orders being mediocre. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated, with downstream enterprises making essential purchases at low prices. Domestic and LME inventories are on a downward trend. Technically, positions are decreasing, and both bulls and bears are cautious, expecting range - bound oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan. The closing price of the September - October contract was down 240 yuan. LME 3 - month tin was at 33,770 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin was 18,744 lots, down 633 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 1,514 lots, down 642 lots. LME tin total inventory was 1,630 tons, down 25 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,792 tons, down 13 tons, and the warehouse receipt was down 25 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 266,800 yuan/ton, down 184 - 700 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 268,410 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 320 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 81 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, and the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,830 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk, sending a hawkish signal. The National Energy Administration announced that the total electricity consumption in July was 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The tin price has been fluctuating recently. The downstream enterprises mostly make rigid - demand purchases when the price is low, and there are some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has decreased, while the LME inventory shows a downward trend. Technically, the position has decreased, both long and short are cautious, and the lower - shadow positive line indicates support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the range of 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 267,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract is 230 yuan lower, with a change of 0; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,770 US dollars/ton, an increase of 68 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 19,377 lots, a decrease of 1,627 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 872 lots, a decrease of 159 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 1,630 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,792 tons, a decrease of 13 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 120 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,329 tons, a decrease of 184 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 268,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,550 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 81 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 3.6行业消息 - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, reaching 10 outcomes. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the photovoltaic industry competition order and curb low - price disorderly competition [3] 3.7观点总结 - Macroscopically, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, and the photovoltaic industry competition order will be regulated. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most enterprises only maintaining rigid - demand production and receiving goods, and the orders are unsatisfactory. Recently, the tin price has been fluctuating, with most downstream enterprises making rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories are decreasing. Technically, the open interest has decreased, both long and short are cautious, and the lower - shadow positive line indicates support, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 3.8重点关注 - There is no news today [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report indicates that the recent slight decline in tin prices is mostly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have slightly increased. LME inventories continue to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract of Shanghai tin is 40 yuan higher. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,702 dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 21,004 hands, down 1,092 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 713 hands. The total inventory of LME tin is 1,655 tons, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange (weekly) is 7,792 tons, down 13 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 145 tons, down 20 tons; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange (daily) are 7,513 tons [3]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,110 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 1,890 yuan/ton, down 1,670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 89 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,370 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. Industry News - Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluating policy implementation, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations. He also mentioned measures to strengthen the domestic large - scale cycle, stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, and promote the construction of a unified national market. There are also measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In July, the increase in production was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan's production area is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, since it has entered the traditional off - season, most downstream processing enterprises only maintain rigid - demand production and procurement, and the orders are just passable. Recently, the tin price has slightly declined, mainly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The LME inventory continues to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3].

| | | ，开始进行少量采买补库，但整体市场成交还是比较差。现货升水小降至300元/吨，国内库存小增。技术 面，持仓下降多空谨慎。操作上，建议暂时观望，关注26.5关口支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪锡产业日报 2025-08-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 267020 | 200 9月-10月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -270 | 40 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33610 | 175 主力合 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of basic metal futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange during the night session on August 15, with some metals experiencing gains while others faced declines [1][2]. Group 2 - Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai zinc rose by 0.04% [1] - Shanghai lead decreased by 0.06% [1] - Shanghai copper fell by 0.23% [1] - Stainless steel dropped by 0.34% [1] - Alumina declined by 0.55% [1] - Shanghai tin decreased by 0.76% [1] - Shanghai nickel saw a decline of 1.19% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be put on hold for the time being [26]. - For fuel oil, the main contract should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. - For synthetic rubber, investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. - For natural rubber, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. - Short - fiber is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with costs, and risk control is necessary [45]. - Soda ash is expected to have high - level adjustments in supply, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [46]. - Glass is recommended for short - selling in the short term, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a stable and narrow - range adjustment in price, and the market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [51][52]. - Lithium carbonate trading is complex, and it is recommended that non - participants operate with a light position and control risks [53]. - For copper, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][57]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors should consider exiting long positions at high levels and then look for long - position opportunities at support levels [60][61]. - For palm oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [62][64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [65][66]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [70][71]. - Apples are recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [73][75]. - For live pigs, an inverse spread strategy is recommended [76][77]. - For eggs, a 9 - 10 inverse spread strategy is recommended [78][79]. - For corn and starch, the near - month contract of corn has support at low levels, and starch follows the corn market [80][81]. - Logs are expected to have some support for bullish sentiment in the short term [82][84]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan on the day. China's macro - economic data in July showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB deposits was 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. 2. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.02%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.78%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.77% [8]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 777.72, up 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 777.1; the closing price of the silver main contract was 9,300, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 9318. The US Treasury Secretary speculated that the Fed might cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing a new driving force for gold [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 4. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3080 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3240 - 3370 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3490 - 3500 yuan/ton. Policy changes are the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price of finished products is expected to return to the logic of industrial supply and demand. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor [13][14]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of PB fines at the port was 788 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special fines was 660 yuan/ton. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The daily output of hot metal remains above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import volume of iron ore has increased significantly since April, the import volume and domestic output in the first half of the year decreased year - on - year, and the port inventory is lower than last year. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [16]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures回调 significantly. On Wednesday night, affected by the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The policy of coal production verification has affected the supply, and some coal mines have stopped production, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in coking coal supply [18][19]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. 7. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon closed down 0.65% to 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron closed down 1.02% to 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased, with the port manganese ore inventory rising slightly to 4.49 million tons. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills increased slightly, and the output of ferroalloys continued to rise, but the demand recovery was weak, and the supply was still high. The high inventory of warrants exerts pressure on the spot and futures markets [21]. - After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. 8. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low in recent days. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The Baker Hughes report showed that the total number of US oil and gas rigs decreased by 1. The IEA monthly report raised the global oil supply growth forecast and lowered the global oil demand growth forecast, and it is expected that there will be a record - high oil supply surplus next year [24]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, and geopolitical risks have eased. The IEA monthly report is negative for crude oil prices. The main contract of crude oil should be put on hold for the time being [25][26]. 9. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, and its trend remained weak. The downstream demand in the Asian fuel oil market continued to be weak, and the expected increase in Western arbitrage inflows pressured the low - sulfur fuel oil market. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia was sufficient, and the power plant demand decreased. In the Singapore spot market, the trading was difficult to conclude due to the large gap between buyers' and sellers' quotes [27]. - The main contract of fuel oil should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed down 0.13%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11850 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The supply decreased due to increased losses, the macro - sentiment was positive, and the market stabilized. The price of butadiene oscillated, and the processing of synthetic rubber was in a loss. The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber industry fell to around 68%. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The manufacturer's inventory decreased month - on - month, and the trader's inventory increased month - on - month [29]. - Investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. 11. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.13%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.08%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at around 14400 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The macro - market sentiment improved, and there were continued disturbances on the supply side, with the market stabilizing and rising. Heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affected rubber tapping, and the raw material purchase price continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The natural rubber inventory in China decreased this week, with both dark and light rubber inventories falling. It is estimated that Thailand's rubber production will increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons in 2025 [31][32]. - Investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. 12. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down 0.38%, the spot price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The oversupply situation of PVC continued, but the room for further decline was limited, and it continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The number of domestic PVC enterprises under maintenance decreased week - on - week, and the supply increased. The operating rates of the main downstream pipe and profile industries continued to decline, and the operating rates of other products were relatively stable. The cost and profit were mainly affected by raw materials. Currently, the raw material price fell, while the PVC price rose slightly, and the PVC profit improved. The social inventory of PVC increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 7.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.52% [34][35]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. 13. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed flat. The price in Linyi, Shandong remained stable at 1720 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. In the short term, the fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. In the medium term, a bullish view was maintained. The supply side saw a slight decline in the overall industry operating rate, but the supply remained at a high level. The main downstream compound fertilizer for autumn was in the production season, and the operating rate increased steadily. The operating rate of melamine decreased slightly. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, lower than expected last week, and the inventory of urea ports was 483,000 tons, higher than expected last week [37][38]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. 14. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 fell 0.35%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate rose slightly to 82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. Some refineries increased their loads or restarted. In June, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 765,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 34.4%. The international oil price oscillated weakly [39]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. 15. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell 0.55%. The spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.06%. Some PTA plants restarted or reduced their loads, with the PTA operating rate at 76.2%. The operating rate of polyester increased to 88.8%. The profit of PTA processing improved slightly to around 200 yuan/ton [40]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 0.47%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increased by 0.14%. The inventory at the main ports in East China was about 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from August 11 to August 17 was about 141,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was adjusted to 88.8%, and the operating rate of terminal looms was adjusted locally [43]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. 17. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2510 fell 0.22%. The operating rate of short - fiber plants rose to around 90.6%. The sales of polyester yarn improved, and the operating rates of downstream drawing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 70%, 59%, and 65% respectively. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in Jiangsu and

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-08-13 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 269820 | -380 9月-10月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -230 | -30 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33770 | 55 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 25370 | -1155 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -129 | -117 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 1765 | 15 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7805 | 134 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | ...