Core Viewpoint - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could significantly disrupt global oil and gas trade, leading to a sharp increase in international oil prices, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel in the short term [2][10]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - Following Iran's statement regarding the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil futures saw an initial surge, with Brent crude rising by 5.7% and WTI crude by over 6.17%, before experiencing a decline of approximately 11% and 9% respectively by June 24 [2]. - If the Strait of Hormuz were to close, international oil prices could spike to between $120 and $150 per barrel, with Morgan Stanley predicting a rise to $130 per barrel [14][15]. Group 2: Trade and Economic Implications - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil transport, accounting for about 20% of the world's oil liquid consumption and a similar percentage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade [3][8]. - Approximately 84% of the crude oil and condensate transported through the Strait of Hormuz is directed towards Asian markets, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea being the primary destinations [10]. Group 3: Alternative Transport Challenges - While there are alternative pipelines that could bypass the Strait of Hormuz, their current capacity is limited to about 700,000 barrels per day, which is insufficient to replace the Strait's transport volume [9]. - The closure of the Strait would lead to increased transportation costs and insurance rates, making it difficult for countries to absorb these additional expenses [14]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the potential short-term price spikes, experts believe that the international oil market will not face a long-term shortage, as strategic reserves and increased production from other countries like the U.S., Canada, and Brazil could mitigate the impact [15]. - The current geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties are expected to maintain a stable supply in the oil market until at least 2030 [15].