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油电新格局下,汽车产业如何平稳发展?这几点思考值得关注!
第一商用车网· 2025-09-14 07:11
Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards electrification, with a focus on balancing traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, as well as exploring various technological routes to achieve sustainable development [2][11][23]. Market Trends - Global sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) exceeded 19 million units last year, with a market penetration rate surpassing 23% in the first half of this year [3][6]. - In China, NEV sales reached nearly 13 million units last year, with a penetration rate exceeding 40%, and are expected to surpass 15 million units this year [6][11]. - The penetration rate of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) rose from 17% in 2021 to 40% last year but saw a slight decline to 36% in the first half of this year [7][9]. Technological Development - The industry is experiencing a coexistence of multiple technological routes, with a focus on market-driven development rather than solely policy-driven [7][20]. - Battery technology and charging infrastructure are improving, leading to more rational consumer demands regarding vehicle range and charging needs [10][21]. - The average range of pure electric vehicles increased by approximately 17 kilometers in the first half of this year compared to last year [10]. Policy Support - The government has implemented various policies to support the NEV industry, including tax reductions and subsidies, which have significantly contributed to market growth [12][15]. - A new round of policies has been introduced to ensure a smooth transition for NEVs, including tax exemptions and the promotion of electric vehicles in public sectors [12][21]. - The dual carbon goals have prompted the automotive industry to accelerate its green and low-carbon transformation, with a focus on reducing the market share of traditional fuel vehicles [13][21]. Infrastructure Development - The government is actively promoting the establishment of charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, to support the electrification of vehicles [16][19]. - Pilot programs for public service vehicle electrification are being launched in multiple cities, aiming to increase the adoption of electric vehicles in various sectors [17][19]. Future Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to continue its shift towards electrification, with a focus on diverse technological routes, including pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles [20][22]. - The competition among different technological routes will depend on cost-effectiveness and carbon reduction capabilities, influencing market share in the future [22][23]. - The industry is encouraged to maintain strategic focus on NEV development while ensuring a fair and competitive market environment [23].