1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is in a game between short - term supply surplus and uncertainty of future ship purchases. The recent favorable rainfall in Canada and potential resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade add supply pressure. High - frequency data shows an increase in July palm oil production and a decline in exports, but positive news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sectors boosts the oil market. In China, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, yet reduced mill operating rates and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The market is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is supported by concerns about trade policies and low near - month rapeseed arrivals, while being suppressed by high US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏. The market is volatile, and investors are advised to take a bullish view and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Strategy Suggestion**: Short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 9574 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Favorable rainfall in Canada and potential Sino - Australian trade resumption add supply pressure. High - frequency data on palm oil is mixed, and in China, the off - season consumption, ample supply, and high inventory pressure are offset by reduced mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases [9]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy Suggestion**: A bullish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [11]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 contract closed at 2773 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: High US soybean good - rate, high domestic soybean meal inventory, and expected decline in pig存栏 suppress the market, while trade policy concerns and low near - month rapeseed arrivals provide support [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 140,480 lots, down 48,633 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed up, with a total position of 356,167 lots, down 63,512 lots from the previous week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were + 21,321, an increase from last week's + 17,912. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures were + 22,737, an increase from last week's + 16,688 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,487 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 9,063 lots [26][27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week, and the basis was + 126 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,660 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis was - 113 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was + 13 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was + 267 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [46]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 09 contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.45, and the average spot price ratio was 3.647 [49]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,174 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 594 yuan/ton, with narrow - range fluctuations. The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 335 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 272 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industry Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 100,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 490,000 tons, 530,000 tons, and 395,000 tons respectively [71]. - **Supply - Side Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 7, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 662 yuan/ton [75]. - **Supply - Side Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 31st week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 15.17% [79]. - **Supply - Side Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 424,300 tons (69.69%) and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [83]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 786,000 tons, unchanged from last week with a 0.03% month - on - month decline. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28,800 tons (23.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [87]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476,900 tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [91]. - **Demand - Side Weekly Contract Volume Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 128,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons (10.05%) from last week [95]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Weekly Inventory Change**: As of the end of the 31st week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 23,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons (35.29%) from last week [99]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume Change**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35,600 tons (15.17%) and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [103]. - **Demand - Side Monthly Feed Output Comparison**: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,762,100 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 24.93% as of August 1, up 3.56% from last week, at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [110].