农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月25日星期二 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 。 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力01合约下跌，午后收于8144（日变动-24或 -0.29%）。产地棕榈油超预期增产，棕榈油价格下挫带动豆油价格 走低。目前国内豆油库存较为充足，并且市场担忧美豆油生 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤 | | （元/吨） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | 5月-1月 | | | 9月-1月 | | 9月-5月 | | 2025/11/25 | 21 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/24 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/21 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/20 | 32 . | 6 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | | 2025/11/19 | 32 . | 6 | 0 0 . | | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent capital inflows and outflows in commodity futures, indicating a mixed market sentiment with specific focus on various sectors [1] Group 1: Capital Inflows - Major inflows were observed in gold (2.725 billion), tin (0.784 billion), silver (0.728 billion), copper (0.313 billion), and corn (0.081 billion) [1] - The non-ferrous metals and financial sectors showed a positive inflow trend, particularly in gold, tin, silver, copper, and polysilicon [1] Group 2: Capital Outflows - Significant outflows were noted in lithium carbonate (1.148 billion), rebar (0.269 billion), rapeseed oil (0.196 billion), hot-rolled coil (0.178 billion), and glass (0.161 billion) [1] - The agricultural, chemical, and black metal sectors experienced outflows, with a focus on rebar, glass, methanol, and live pigs, while corn, fuel oil, and ferrosilicon saw contrary inflows [1] Group 3: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall commodity futures market experienced moderate inflows, with a notable emphasis on the non-ferrous metals sector and financial futures such as the CSI 1000 index futures and 10-year treasury futures [1]

2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.31%报 115.570 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.04%报 108.430 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.06%报 105.855 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.460 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，11 月 21 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3750 亿元 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 25, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][38][48] Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal - The basis of thermal coal from November 18 to November 24, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - The basis, price ratio, and other data of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt, and INE crude oil from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil on November 24 was - 8.81 yuan/ton [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, the inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was 75 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are given. For instance, on November 24, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2297 yuan/ton [9] - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rubber on November 24 was - 370 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 29 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are given. For instance, on November 24, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.90 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on November 24 was 161.0 yuan/ton [21] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on November 24 was 90 yuan/ton [30] (2) London Market - On November 24, 2025, for LME non - ferrous metals, the LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided. For example, the LME premium of copper was 24.88 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on November 24 was - 130 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products such as soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 49 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are given. For instance, on November 24, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.88 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 18 to November 24, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on November 24 was 12.85 [49] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 156 [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply - side pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal price maintains a volatile trend, and short - term observation is recommended. [2] - The rapeseed oil market has support from the supply - side as the oil mills are basically shut down and the inventory is decreasing. But the demand is mainly rigid due to the abundant supply of soybean oil. Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has declined slightly due to the weakness of palm oil, and short - term trading is recommended. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9778 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2446 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed is 641.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.6 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan. [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 356 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 61 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. [2] - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 235090 lots, down 8834 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 360472 lots, up 4288 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 1412 lots, down 3130 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 7699 lots, up 2888 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3976, down 57; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7845.7 yuan/ton, down 113.9 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 4.05, down 0.02. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1710 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 11.53 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, down 2 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 1.25 tons, down 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 36.45 tons, down 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 1.15 tons, down 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2957 tons, down 171.7 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 tons, down 67.4 tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.06%, up 0.36%; that of at - the - money put options is 20.06%, up 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.88%, up 1.47%; that of at - the - money put options is 14.93%, up 1.52%. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.52%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.81%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.87%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.76%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - On November 21 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the weakness of US soybean oil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil futures. [2] - The US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant supply in the short - term. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, but the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good, and China's purchase of over 1.5 million tons of US soybeans last week supports the US soybean price. [2] - The Canada - China trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term. The Canadian rapeseed export has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan and the agreement with Pakistan to promote rapeseed export provide support. [2] - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports in November bring inventory pressure to the international oil market. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a daily update on futures arbitrage data for various commodities on November 24, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from November 17 to 21, 2025. The basis remained at 32.6 yuan/ton during this period, and all spreads were 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided, along with price changes such as - 8.81, - 14.21, etc [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 17 to 21, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on November 21 was - 490 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 65 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 17 to 21, 2025 are shown. On November 21, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2330 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on November 21 was 173.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 42.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from November 17 to 21, 2025 are given. On November 21, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.89 [20]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on November 21 was 20 yuan/ton [31]. London Market - On November 21, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 1.06 [34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on November 21 was - 89 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of various agricultural products are given, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios and spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on November 21, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.88 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 17 to 21, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on November 21 was 71.22 [52]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of CSI 300 was - 408 [50].

| VY V SDIC FUIURES | | 2025年11月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 標 潟 海 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | 【豆一】 豆一期货主力价格从高位快速回落并伴随减仓。经过阶段性上涨,豆一价格获利了结并进入调整状态。本周中 储粮竞价拍卖大豆，全部成交。成交均价3900元/吨。随着国产大豆价格回落，国产大豆和进口大豆价差缩下 跌、进口大豆 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and strategies for various agricultural products including soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, soybeans, corn, and livestock products such as pigs and eggs [3][4][5]. - It analyzes the market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies and support/resistance levels for each product [3][4][5]. Group 2: Product - Specific Analysis Soybean Oil - On Wednesday, the main 01 contract of soybean oil continued to rise, closing at 8356 (daily change of 36 or 0.43%). International diesel price increase and strong US soybean crushing consumption drove up domestic oil prices. Although the domestic soybean oil inventory is high, it has entered a decreasing stage, with obvious support below. Suggest holding long positions in the main contract, continuing to hold previously sold out - of - the - money put options, and considering long - oil short - meal arbitrage. Support is at 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 8450 - 8500 yuan/ton [3]. Rapeseed Oil - On Wednesday, rapeseed oil declined. The main OI2601 contract closed at 9813 yuan/ton, down 0.91% month - on - month. The fundamentals have no significant change. The inventory is high compared to the same period, but the marginal destocking trend continues. With Australian seeds arriving soon, supply is expected to ease, and the rapeseed sector has given back some premium. Considering reducing or taking profit on previous long positions, and maintaining a long - on - dips strategy before the China - Canada relationship improves. Support for the OI2601 contract is at 9300 - 9350, and resistance is at 10050 - 10100 [3]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm oil trended strongly upward, with the main 01 contract closing at 8852, up 1.89% month - on - month. International energy supply tightened due to sanctions on Russia and attacks on Russian oil facilities, boosting palm oil's bio - diesel attribute. However, domestic demand is weak and inventory may accumulate. As Malaysian palm oil enters the production - reduction season, supply pressure may ease. It is recommended to wait and see or go short - term long on dips. Support is at 8530 - 8550, and resistance is at 8950 - 9000 [4]. Soybeans - **Soybean 1**: On Wednesday, the main 01 contract of soybean 1 adjusted weakly, closing at 4145 (daily change of - 4 or - 0.10%). The market logic is unchanged. On November 18, 35,692 tons of state - reserve soybeans were auctioned at the base price. The new - season soybean market in the Northeast is stable, with high - quality soybeans having firm prices. Farmers' selling willingness is okay, and traders' purchases are cautious. The price may adjust weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. Support is at 4000 - 4020 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 4250 - 4280 yuan/ton [7]. - **Soybean 2**: On Wednesday, the prices of DCE soybean 2 and soybean meal continued to be weak. Media reports that China may have purchased US soybeans worried the market about the release of reserve soybeans. With sufficient domestic soybean supply for oil extraction, the prices of soybean 2 and soybean meal are expected to bottom weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and hold long - oil short - meal arbitrage. Support for the main soybean 2 contract is at 3680 - 3700 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - On Wednesday, the prices of corn and corn starch fluctuated. For US corn, the inventory accumulation expectation in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, with pressure from concentrated listing. Although there are some weather disturbances in Argentina, the overall pressure persists. For domestic corn, concerns about grain quality in North China increased the purchase enthusiasm for Northeast grain, and the decrease in imported grains also boosted the purchase in the southern sales areas. However, the subsequent concentrated supply pressure still exists, restricting the rebound height of futures prices. It is recommended to go short in the short - term. Support for the corn 01 contract is at 2050 - 2070, and resistance is at 2200 - 2220. For the corn starch 01 contract, support is at 2350 - 2360, and resistance is at 2520 - 2540 [6]. Livestock Products - **Pigs**: On Wednesday, the futures price of pigs fluctuated weakly at a low level. The 2601 contract followed the spot price weakly, while the far - month contracts were relatively resistant to decline. The spot price of pigs first rose and then fell this week. Farmers' slaughter decreased at the beginning of the month, and the slaughter weight increased slightly. The expectation of falling feed costs made the far - month futures prices pessimistic. The national average spot price of pigs is about 11.54 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from last week. It is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then go long on the 2607 contract at low prices. Cautious investors can wait and see. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 11,500 - 12,600 points [7]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the egg futures price opened low and closed high, fluctuating weakly. The near - month futures prices dropped significantly this week. The overall consumption is gradually entering the peak season. After the egg price fell below the breeding cost, the laying - hen inventory capacity is gradually being reduced, and the new - laying hens at the end of the year are expected to decrease month - on - month. It is recommended that cautious investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on the 2601 contract at prices below the farmers' cost. The reference range for the 01 contract is 3000 - 3250 points [8]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Market Judgment Strategies - For different products, different market judgment strategies are given, such as holding long positions, short - term trading, or waiting and seeing based on the supply - demand situation and market trends [3][4][5]. - For example, for soybean oil, it is recommended to hold long positions and long - oil short - meal arbitrage; for rapeseed oil, it is recommended to reduce long positions or take profit and then go long on dips [3]. Arbitrage Strategies - Cross - period and cross - product arbitrage strategies are provided. For cross - period arbitrage, most contracts are recommended to wait and see, while for some contracts like corn 5 - 1, it is recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - For cross - product arbitrage, strategies such as long - oil short - meal arbitrage are recommended, and different strategies are given according to the price differences between different products [12]. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides data on spot prices, price changes, and basis for various products, which can be used for basis and spot - futures trading strategies [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market environments [5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. With the current macro - economic situation and market conditions, there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day showed mixed performance. Given the current domestic economic situation, market sentiment, and external factors, the risk of a significant decline is low, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day witnessed price increases. Considering the global trade and financial environment, central bank actions, and the current price level, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - position opportunity [10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Alumina supply is relatively loose, and aluminum needs to beware of seasonal consumption pressure and profit - taking, with a possible phased correction [49]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day remained flat. With tight supply of zinc concentrates and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Due to supply and demand factors, lead prices are expected to operate within a range [54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. With tight supply and certain demand support, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had an increase. Facing supply - demand contradictions, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Considering supply - demand relationships and technical aspects, prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With a weak supply - demand pattern and technical resistance, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a significant decline. Based on supply - demand changes and technical analysis, there may be a short - term correction, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during the correction [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had a decline. With high - level production decline, weak demand recovery, and cost support, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [18]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had an upward trend. Considering supply - demand factors and market news, there are concerns about supply surplus, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the short - term [20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With mixed supply - demand factors, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [23][24]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With improved downstream demand in some areas, investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With supply and demand factors, there is still room for short - term price increases, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. With an oversupply situation, attention should be paid to supply - side changes [33]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. It is expected that the market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. With improved short - term supply - demand structure, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. With low processing fees, low inventory, and cost factors, it is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and caution is needed [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had a decline. With increased supply and inventory, it is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high - level supply, stable demand, and enhanced cost - driving, it is expected to fluctuate with costs [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. With raw material price support and stable supply and demand, it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had a significant increase. With strong supply and demand, inventory is being depleted, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [45]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different performances. With sufficient soybean supply and improved demand for soybean oil, investors can focus on long - position opportunities for soybean oil and consider exiting long positions for soybean meal [59]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day had an increase. Affected by supply - demand factors, investors can consider long - position opportunities during corrections [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day had a decline. With supply - demand and external factors, investors can consider a long - position strategy for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With increased global and US production and inventory, and domestic supply and demand factors, cotton prices are expected to be weak [66]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had a decline. With global production expectations and domestic supply pressure, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [70]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had a high - level volatile operation. With current inventory and market conditions, apple prices are expected to operate strongly [74]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. With sufficient supply and uncertain demand, investors can consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had a price decline. With high - level supply and weak demand, investors can consider closing short positions gradually [79]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day had an increase. With new - season corn supply pressure and inventory factors, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [81].