| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年08月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | なな女 | | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一价格表弱势下跌，因为政策端在竞价销售大豆，使得市场供应端的压力边际增加，而需求端表现疲弱。豆 一和豆二价差从低位开始进行了反弹,从相对价格看,开始强于进口大豆。进口大豆方面市场对中美贸易谈判 预期向好,短期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/08/26 | -105.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/25 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/22 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/21 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/20 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/08/26 2025/08/25 2025/08/22 2025/08/21 2025/08/20 130 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：油脂供应充足，豆油价格继续低开低走。主要原因在于市场 尚未证实的消息称可能会有600万吨大豆抛储并进口美豆轮换（消 息尚未证实）。中美、中加贸易关系依旧严峻，市场对于四季度油 籽供应存在担忧。目前豆油市场处于"弱现实+强预期"格局，弱 现实主要表现为 ...

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for August 21, 2025, covering multiple commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Not provided in the report Summary by Commodity Category Thermal Coal - The report presents the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of thermal coal from August 14 to 20, 2025. The basis values are -106.4, -103.4, -100.4, -99.4, -97.4 for respective dates, while all spreads are 0.0 [2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on basis, price ratios, and related indicators of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from August 14 to 20, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 20 was 136.18 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - The basis, spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP, etc.) are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 20 was -1075 yuan/ton [9][11] Black Metals - The report shows the cross - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) and cross - commodity spreads (such as screw/ore, screw/coke) of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. The basis data from August 14 to 20, 2025 are also presented [20][21] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from August 14 to 20, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on August 20 was 30 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss of non - ferrous metals in the London market on August 20, 2025 are provided [35] Agricultural Products - The basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - commodity spreads of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) are presented. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on August 20 was 4284.54 yuan/ton [39] Stock Index Futures - The basis and cross - period spreads of stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 20 was 1.40 [51][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. Short - term callback space is limited, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - The rapeseed oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to trade policy changes and sufficient inventory [3]. - The palm oil price has a short - term adjustment demand due to factors such as price comparison pressure and potential production impacts in Indonesia [4]. - The soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to be bullish in the long - term [3][4]. - The corn and corn starch prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [5]. - The soybean price is affected by new supply and market sentiment, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The peanut price is under pressure due to expected increased production and lower costs, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The live pig price is affected by policies and supply - demand, with a short - term fluctuating rebound and a long - term focus on capacity reduction [7]. - The egg price is at a low level, and the market expects terminal consumption improvement to drive a price rebound [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean 11, Soybean 2 09 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations; new domestic soybeans are on the market, supply increases | 3900 - 3930, 3640 - 3670 | 4145 - 4150, 3950 - 4000 | Fluctuation, Fluctuation adjustment | Light - position short - selling, Temporary observation | | | Peanut 11 | Expected production increase and cost reduction | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, sufficient inventory in the short - term, long - term positive outlook | 8230 - 8300 | 8800 - 9000 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Short - term supply increase | 9600 - 9610 | 10300 - 10343 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Palm 01 | Good export demand from the origin, concerns about Indonesian production | 9060 - 9074 | 9900 - 9990 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Reduce long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, expected reduction in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter | 2950 - 2980 | 3200 - 3250 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Light - position long - buying | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, weak consumption | 2500 - 2523 | 2698 - 2708 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Hold long positions | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Continuous release of imported corn, stable new - season expectations | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Weak corn price, relatively loose spot market | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebound, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 13500 - 13750, 14500 - 15000 | | Fluctuation rebound | Hold long positions | | | Egg 10 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak season expectation | 3000 - 3050 | 3300 - 3350 | Fluctuation to find the bottom | Observation | [11] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - delivery arbitrage, most varieties suggest waiting and seeing, while the soybean meal 3 - 5 spread recommends a positive spread operation with a target of 300 - 400. The live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 spreads suggest positive spreads at low prices [12][13]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread suggests short - biased operations, the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread suggests long - biased operations, and the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio recommends long - buying operations [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in the feed, livestock, and oil sectors [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and different shipping dates [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oils, and peanuts [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Lists the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, and operation rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pig**: Provides daily and weekly data on live pig prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, etc. [20][22][23]. - **Egg**: Offers daily and weekly data on egg prices, production rates, inventory, and related prices [21][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Pigs and Eggs)**: Includes charts of main contract closing prices, spot prices, and other relevant data of live pigs and eggs [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers charts of Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and domestic palm oil inventory, trading volume, etc. [37][40][44]. - **Soybean Oil**: Contains charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operation rates, inventory, etc. [47][48]. - **Peanut**: Shows charts of domestic peanut arrival, shipment, processing profits, and inventory [51][52]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Has charts of corn closing prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profits [55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: Includes charts of corn starch closing prices, spot prices, operation rates, inventory, and processing profits [58][59]. - **Rapeseed**: Displays charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profits [60][63][65]. - **Soybean Meal**: Presents charts of US soybean growth rates, soybean and soybean meal inventory [67]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties [69][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, live pig, and egg [72][73][74].

受邀嘉宾在2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛主论坛上作主题分享。图片均为中国（郑州）国际期货论坛主办 方供图 ■核心提示 2018年，中国期货市场正式开启国际化步伐。近年来，从PTA期货引入境外交易者，到菜油、菜粕、花生等 期货价格成为全球重要基准，"郑州价格"影响力逐渐增强。8月19日—20日，2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛 在郑州举办，本报特推出"从郑州出发，护航实体、链动全球"特别报道，全面展现期货市场赋能实体经济发 展的澎湃动能。 赋能实体共谋未来 ——2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛侧记 8月19日—20日，2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛在郑州举行。 作为全球期货业聚焦的年度盛事，中国（郑州）国际期货论坛汇聚行业精英共探风险管理创新路径，为实体 企业应对复杂环境提供新思路，推动期现融合迈向更高水平。 一次思想盛宴 本届论坛以"赋能实体经济助力强国建设——期货市场高质量发展的实践与机遇"为主题，除主论坛外，还设 置了四个分论坛，分别为对外开放论坛、产业企业风险管理论坛、农产品（油脂油料）论坛、工业品（聚 酯）论坛。 主论坛主题演讲环节，国务院发展研究中心原副主任余斌，中国期货业协会党委书记、会长杨光 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Buy with Caution**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, and Live Pigs [1] - **Hold for Observation**: Soybean, Egg [1] - **Buy Opportunistically**: Soybean Oil and Palm Oil [1][4] Core Views - Short - term focus on weather, policies, and import soybean performance for domestic soybeans; cautiously optimistic about the soybean meal market; consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices; maintain the judgment of short - term rebound in rapeseed futures prices; and expect Dalian corn futures to continue to be weak at the bottom [2][3][4][6][7] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybean prices recovered quickly after a sharp drop, with a provincial reserve rotation auction of 0.65 tons this Friday. The weather is generally favorable for growth, and the price gap with imported soybeans has rebounded. In the US, soybean pod numbers in some states are positive, and the US Soybean Association urges to reopen the Chinese market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The latest good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, higher than expected. Future weeks may see less rain in the US. Domestically, soybean meal spot prices have risen, and the supply of imported beans in the fourth quarter is uncertain. The market is cautiously optimistic about soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections show positive soybean pod numbers. The market is worried about bio - fuel exemptions in the US, which has pressured soybean oil prices. Domestically, soybean and palm oil have seen a position - reducing correction. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal is in a weak rebound, and rapeseed oil has fallen with the vegetable oil sector but with the smallest decline. The supply of Australian rapeseed is tight before the new crop arrives in November. A rapeseed oil trading event involving 4574 tons will be held this Friday [6] Corn - As of August 19, 15 auctions of imported corn by Sinograin totaled about 347.6 tons, with a low成交 rate of 36.38%. New - season Xinjiang corn has affected market expectations, and Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures have weakened with increased positions. Spot prices are slightly stronger, but secondary fattening is cautious. The supply of live pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year. It is recommended to hedge at high prices [8] Eggs - Egg futures have rebounded slightly, while spot prices are weak. In the medium - term, high production capacity may lead to price drops. Short - term attention should be paid to capital and seasonal factors [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic market is mainly trading the issue of long - term supply, with the overall performance showing a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset. Although there are some suppressing factors such as high oil - mill operation rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation, factors like low near - month rapeseed arrivals, increased seasonal demand in aquaculture, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the market also maintains a bullish mindset. Despite the short - term constraints of the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply, factors such as low oil - mill operation rates, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market has experienced a slight decline from its high and filled the gap, but remains volatile [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract) was 9828 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2627 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active) was 645.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures closing price (active contract) was 4874 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) was 145 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) was 110 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - Positions: Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 279,566 lots, down 9038 lots; rapeseed meal main - contract positions were 436,474 lots, down 1510 lots. Rapeseed oil's top 20 futures net long positions were 7628 lots, up 4995 lots; rapeseed meal's were 5009 lots, up 2985 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 8633 sheets, down 88 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong was 2610 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The average rapeseed oil price was 10,095 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 180 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; rapeseed meal main - contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: Spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8620 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9510 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 320 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 460 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: Total rapeseed import volume for the month was 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 million tons, unchanged; weekly import rapeseed operation rate was 11.94%, down 4.9% [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.55 million tons, down 0.65 million tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons, down 0.72 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons, up 0.34 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons, up 0.52 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry for the month was 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility was 20.98%, down 1.43%; at - the - money put option implied volatility was 20.97%, down 1.45%. Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility was up 0.26% [2]. - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal 20 - day historical volatility was 31.15%, up 0.06%; 60 - day historical volatility was 21.32%, up 0.03%. Rapeseed oil 20 - day historical volatility was 13.44%, up 0.54%; 60 - day historical volatility was 13.47%, up 0.28% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures declined on August 19. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 5.70 Canadian dollars to settle at 646 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 5.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 657.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which was overall bullish for the market. However, the good US soybean good - quality rate still constrained prices, and the market awaited the results of ProFarmer's inspection of US Midwest crops [2]. Key Points to Watch - Monday's rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from My Agricultural Network, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. ProFarmer company's crop inspection shows that the expectation of a bountiful soybean harvest remains unchanged, and the yield per unit is likely to reach a record high. However, due to a significant reduction in the planted area, the overall soybean production is still uncertain [3] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that Malaysian palm oil prices will remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth. The price strength depends on palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,640 yuan/ton, a change of +56 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,526 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.24% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,660 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.58%, with a spot basis of P01 + 20 yuan, a change of +94 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,680 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 154 yuan, a change of +40 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,980 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 130 yuan, a change of - 4 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop Yield Forecasts - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in Ohio to be 185.69 bushels/acre, compared to 183.29 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in South Dakota to be 174.18 bushels/acre, compared to 156.51 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in Ohio in 2025 to be 1,287.28, compared to 1,229.93 in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota in 2025 to be 1,188.45, compared to 1,025.89 in 2024 [2] Brazilian "Soybean Moratorium Plan" - Brazil's competition management agency CADE recommends a full investigation of the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". The general manager of CADE decides to implement "preventive measures" and impose fines on the working group coordinating the plan and the soybean export companies that signed the document [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) is concerned about CADE's decision, will take administrative measures to appeal, and will maintain a "cooperative spirit" with the competition regulator [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].