上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 | | | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 | | 铝： | | 17 | | 锌： | | 17 | | 铅： | | 17 | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.07%报 110.870 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.02%报 107.765 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.03 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2026/01/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/08 | -104.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/07 | -108.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/06 | -113.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2026/01/05 | -116.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2026/01/09 2026/01/08 2026/01/07 2026/01/06 2026/0 ...

2025年11月底，广东新沙港靠岸了一艘特殊的货轮。 文|有风 编辑|有风 原计划2025年12月25日开榨，眼瞅着就泡汤了。 沿海油厂更惨，进口油菜籽库存一直是"0"，开工率连续9周挂"0"。 可现实给了市场一记闷棍。 这批澳籽到港后，检验周期比预想的长得多。 船上装的是澳大利亚油菜籽，这可是中澳之间断了4年的贸易重新启动的标志。 当时市场都觉得，这下油菜籽供应该跟上了，油厂开榨后菜油产量会增加，价格说不定能稳一稳。 这供应端一掉链子，进口菜籽油库存跟着下滑，价格反倒止跌反弹了。 春节就在眼前，这"供给偏紧+备货窗口"的组合，能不能让菜油期货走出一波行情，成了最近大家热议 的话题。 现货市场先"喊渴"：预期挺美，现实骨感 一开始听说澳籽恢复进口，不少人都松了口气。 毕竟之前国内油菜籽供应挺紧张，尤其加拿大那边还因为反倾销调查，进口量被卡得厉害。 本以为澳籽到港能补补缺口，结果检验流程一拉长，整个节奏全乱了。 数据不会骗人。 2025年12月26日，进口菜籽油库存量跌到31.69万吨，不管跟去年比还是跟上个月比，都降了不少。 现货价格也跟着动，12月进口三级菜籽油均价到了9851元/吨。 业内估计，2026年 ...

Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkqh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 | | 名称 | 交易代码 | 主力基差率 | 较昨日増减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 录自导科 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜 | CU | 0.21% | 0.86% | 215 | 115 | 165 | 101870 | 101970 | 101920 | 102085 | SMM 1#电解铜 | | | 指 | AL | 0.04% | 1.23% | 10 | -15 | -60 | 23990 | 24015 | 24060 | 24000 | SMM A00铝 | | | 锌 | ZN | 0.52% | 0.54% | 125 | 80 | 40 | 24045 | 24090 | 24130 | 2417 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil [1] - **Bullish (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: Soybean, Palm Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product futures market shows a mixed trend, with different varieties affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions [2][3][4] - For most varieties, short - term market trends need to be continuously monitored, and different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Soybean - The main contract of soybean futures is in an adjustment state at a high level, and the spot price of domestic soybeans is rising. Jilin Province will conduct a competitive auction of trade grains in mid - January [2] - South American new - season soybeans maintain the annual production forecast, and the supply - side risk is low. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and market guidance [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The USDA will release the January supply - demand report next Tuesday. Reuters predicts that the US 2025/26 soybean production will be 4.229 billion bushels, and the ending inventory will be 292 million bushels [3] - The US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2025 is expected to be 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase year - on - year. South American soybean production is expected to rise slightly [3] - If the South American weather does not change significantly, the soybean meal price will follow the US soybean price and fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil are continuing to rebound. Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel policy [4] - The Malaysian palm oil market is at risk of further inventory accumulation. The overseas soybean supply - side risk is low, and the palm oil inventory pressure in Malaysia is expected to continue. The market is expected to be volatile [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products show a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil rises due to the increase in international crude oil prices, while rapeseed meal is pressured by the expectation of improved China - Canada economic and trade relations [6] - The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week. It is expected that the market will be in a weak and volatile state [6] Corn - Corn futures are oscillating at a high level. The spot price in Northeast China has risen slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises have raised the purchase price [7] - The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn has a high transaction rate and premium. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are continuing to oscillate, and the spot price is slightly stronger. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is still high, but the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low [8] - There may be an accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the supply pressure is large. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and it is recommended to short the 03 contract after a rebound [8] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is stable. Due to the low replenishment in the second half of 2025, the egg - laying hen inventory will decline rapidly from January 2026 [9] - With pre - Spring Festival stocking, the spot price is expected to rise. It is recommended to take a long position in the first - half - year contracts of 2026 or adopt a long - near and short - far strategy [9]

油脂日报 | 2026-01-09 加拿大总理预计访华，或影响菜系价格 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8612.00元/吨，环比变化+50元，幅度+0.58%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7944.00 元/吨，环比变化-14.00元，幅度-0.18%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8956.00元/吨，环比变化-139.00元，幅度-1.53%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8580.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.94%，现货基差P05-32.00，环比变化 +30.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8340.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y05+396.00， 环比变化+24.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9710.00元/吨，环比变化-140.00元，幅度-1.42%，现货基差 OI05+754.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：印尼政策动态：据外媒报道，印尼能源部官员透露，因资金紧张，印尼可能提高棕榈油出口 税以支持生物柴油计划；同时，B50生物柴油路测已于12月启动，计划今年下半年实施，2025年该国生物柴油消费 量 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7944 | (14) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8474 | | | | 8524 | 8344 | | 580 | 10 530 | 0 | 400 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8612 | 50 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8582 | | | | 8572 | 8742 | | -30 | 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Market sentiment has ebbed, and commodities with large previous gains face profit - taking pressure. Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors. Attention should be paid to policy, weather, export, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Bean No.1 - Bean No.1 futures main contract shows an adjustment trend with a reduction in positions. The domestic soybean spot price remains strong. The South American new - season soybean has a high - yield expectation, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA January report predicts the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks and inventory as of December 1, 2025. Reuters predicts a slight increase in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production. South American weather is favorable, and the probability of ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 68%. Dalian soybean meal rebounds with US soybeans. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Market sentiment has ebbed, and soybean oil and palm oil show a trend of rising and then falling. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes, and the Malaysian palm oil market may continue to accumulate inventory. The supply - side risk of overseas soybeans is low, and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues, with a weak supply - demand situation [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures decline significantly today. The market has high expectations for the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. If Canada changes its tariff policies on Chinese products, the export of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil to China may resume. The domestic rapeseed - related futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to increase positions and rise. Some Northeast deep - processing enterprises slightly raise the purchase price. The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The spot price of some ports is stable or slightly weak. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning continues to decrease. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn spot has a high transaction rate and premium. The short - term trend is wide - range volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to fluctuate. Different data sources show different trends in the number of sows and newborn piglets. The fat - to - lean price difference is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. There is a large supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the upward rebound space of the futures is limited. In the long - term, the pig price is likely to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures contract strengthens again, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern compared with yesterday. The spot price is stable or slightly strong. The monthly year - on - year decline in chick replenishment from September to December exceeds 10%, and the egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to go long on the first - half - year 2026 futures contracts at low prices. The second - half - year contracts may have different trends [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is a daily data report on futures variety arbitrage from Baocheng Futures, covering multiple futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. It provides data on basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different trading dates [1][2][8][10][18][19][20][28][31][38][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report presents the basis and inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of thermal coal from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026. During this period, the basis gradually increased from - 131.4 yuan/ton to - 108.4 yuan/ton, while the inter - month spreads remained at 0.0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It provides basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, along with price ratios for some commodities [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The report shows the basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026. For example, the basis of rubber decreased from - 370 yuan/ton to - 430 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: It presents the inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are given. For example, the basis of rebar decreased from 186.0 yuan/ton to 153.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. Note that the main contract months of rebar are January, May, and October [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of copper increased from - 1600 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton on January 7, 2026 [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - The report provides data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 7, 2026 [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No. 1 decreased from - 204 yuan/ton to - 324 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for multiple agricultural products such as soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [38]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 increased from 12.69 to 23.67 on January 7, 2026 [49]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on January 7, 2026, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are - 131.4, - 131.4, - 123.4, - 116.4, - 113.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil being - 5.19 yuan/ton on January 6, 2026 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the basis of rubber on January 6, 2026, is - 400 yuan/ton [8] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 35 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, LLDPE - PVC is 1648 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 33.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, rebar/iron ore is 3.89 [18] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are given. For example, the basis of rebar on January 6, 2026, is 159.0 yuan/ton [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on January 6, 2026, is - 1600 yuan/ton [28] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper is 2.98 [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on January 6, 2026, is - 196 yuan/ton [37] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 61 [37] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, soybeans No.1/corn is 1.92 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on January 6, 2026, is 12.69 [48] - **Inter - period**: The next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [48]