Report Overview - Report Date: August 6, 2025 - Report Type: Rapeseed Industry Daily Report 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract): 9562 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan; futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract): 2745 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - Rapeseed oil monthly spread (9 - 1): 47 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; rapeseed meal monthly spread (9 - 1): 282 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Main contract positions of rapeseed oil: 181,067 lots, down 7,341 lots; main contract positions of rapeseed meal: 397,721 lots, down 16,020 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil: 25,377 lots, down 3,111 lots; for rapeseed meal: 18,220 lots, up 1,091 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil: 3,487 sheets, unchanged; for rapeseed meal: 1,200 sheets, unchanged [2] - Futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active): 672.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 10.8 Canadian dollars; futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract): 5071 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2] Spot Market - Spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu: 9680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong: 2690 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - Average price of rapeseed oil: 9745 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; import cost price of imported rapeseed: 4794.74 yuan/ton, down 57.74 yuan [2] - Spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu: 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; oil - meal ratio: 3.6, down 0.02 [2] - Basis of rapeseed oil main contract: 65 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; basis of rapeseed meal main contract: - 55 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2] - Spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing: 8550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil: 1230 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: 8950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil: 780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang: 2920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 230 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast (monthly, million tons): 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual forecast of rapeseed production (monthly, thousand tons): 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Total rapeseed import volume (monthly, ten thousand tons): 18.45 ten thousand tons, down 15.1 ten thousand tons; imported rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market: 296 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills (weekly, ten thousand tons): 10 ten thousand tons, down 5 ten thousand tons; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed oil mills: 16.52%, up 1.59% [2] - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil (monthly, ten thousand tons): 15 ten thousand tons, up 4 ten thousand tons; import volume of rapeseed meal (monthly, ten thousand tons): 27.03 ten thousand tons, up 7.56 ten thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory (weekly, ten thousand tons): 10.65 ten thousand tons, up 1.1 ten thousand tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory (weekly, ten thousand tons): 2.7 ten thousand tons, up 0.8 ten thousand tons [2] - Rapeseed oil inventory in East China (weekly, ten thousand tons): 55.5 ten thousand tons, down 0.77 ten thousand tons; rapeseed meal inventory in East China (weekly, ten thousand tons): 32.57 ten thousand tons, down 0.84 ten thousand tons [2] - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi (weekly, ten thousand tons): 5.7 ten thousand tons, up 0.15 ten thousand tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China (weekly, ten thousand tons): 22.5 ten thousand tons, down 3.6 ten thousand tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 (weekly, ten thousand tons): 1.7 ten thousand tons, down 1.57 ten thousand tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 (weekly, ten thousand tons): 2.87 ten thousand tons, down 0.56 ten thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly feed production: 2762.1 ten thousand tons, up 98.1 ten thousand tons; monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail: 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2] - Monthly edible vegetable oil production: 476.9 ten thousand tons, up 41.8 ten thousand tons [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 22.84%, up 0.03%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 22.84%, up 0.03% [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 19.83%, up 0.07%; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 16.98%, down 0.66% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 13.3%, up 0.97%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 13.31%, up 0.98% [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 11.36%, down 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 12.53%, up 0.06% [2] 2. Industry News - On August 5, 2025, ICE rapeseed futures declined due to the weakening of US soybean oil and the mild weather in Canada alleviating concerns about rapeseed supply shortages. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 10.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 672.20 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 9.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 684.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans remains at a high level for the same period, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2] 3. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint - In the international market, the weakening of US soybean oil and Canada's mild weather ease concerns about rapeseed supply shortages. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Sino - US trade tensions also limit the price of the US soybean market [2] - In the domestic market, the operating rate of oil mills is relatively high, and soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, suppressing the price of the meal market. There is an expectation of a decline in the future pig inventory, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. However, the lack of progress in Sino - US talks increases the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases [2] - For rapeseed meal itself, the arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, reducing supply pressure, and the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is seasonally increasing. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal is good, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with an overall strong and volatile trend [2] 4. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint - In the international market, the hot weather in the Canadian plains has decreased, and favorable rainfall has appeared, bringing pressure to the market. The trade of rapeseed between China and Australia is expected to resume, increasing supply pressure in the long - term. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased in July while exports declined, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, restricting palm oil prices. However, Indonesia's exports have increased significantly, and its inventory is at a low level. Positive news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sectors boosts the oil market [2] - In the domestic market, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of domestic vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high, restricting the market price. However, the operating rate of oil mills has decreased, significantly reducing the output pressure of rapeseed oil. At the same time, the purchase of rapeseed in the third quarter is relatively small, reducing supply - side pressure. The rapeseed oil futures market opened higher and then declined slightly, weaker than soybean oil and palm oil, and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the short term [2] 5. Key Points of Attention - The operating rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions reported by Myagric on Mondays - The development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes