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生猪月报:活体库存继续增加上行阻力仍存-20250425
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 10:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In April, the spot market for live pigs rose, boosted by China's increased tariffs on imported soybeans, corn, and meat products from the US and the rising enthusiasm for secondary fattening. The futures market first rose and then adjusted, with the overall center of gravity higher than in March. The LH07 contract was significantly weaker than other contracts due to concerns about increased supply pressure in July. Based on the official data of breeding sows and piglet birth data, the theoretical slaughter volume in the second and third quarters of 2025 is expected to remain high. With the active entry of secondary fattening in late April, attention should be paid to the pressure of live inventory destocking. The market should be treated with a shock perspective, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling high and buying low between July and September contracts [1][3][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April, the live pig spot market rose, and the futures market first rose and then adjusted, with the overall center of gravity higher than in March. The LH05 contract converged to the spot price as it approached delivery, causing the basis to weaken and the LH5 - LH7 spread to widen significantly. The LH07 contract was weaker due to concerns about increased supply in July [3]. 2. Pig Industry Dynamics - **Shrinking Pig Production Capacity**: As of the first quarter, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million, a year - on - year increase of 470,000 (1.2%) but a slight month - on - month decrease. It was 103.5% of the target inventory of 39 million, close to the upper - middle range of the green and reasonable production capacity regulation area. Considering the low profit of pig prices, the pig production capacity is expected to remain stable with a slight decline [5]. - **Adequate Theoretical Supply in the Second and Third Quarters**: Since August last year, the number of piglets born in sample enterprises has continued to increase month - on - month. In 2025, the number of piglets born has increased month - on - month, indicating sufficient supply and high theoretical slaughter volume in the second and third quarters [8]. - **High Inventory Indicated by Feed Production and Sales**: In March, the production and sales of piglet feed increased month - on - month, slightly lower than the seasonal growth rate. The production of fattening pig feed in March showed normal seasonal growth. Considering the lower decline from December to February compared with previous years, the pig inventory is still high [10]. - **Accumulating Live Inventory and Attention to Destocking Rhythm**: Since April, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has continued to decline, and the average weight after slaughter has returned to a level close to last year. With the passive entry of secondary fattening and the increase in the utilization rate of fattening houses, attention should be paid to the live inventory destocking rhythm and potential supply pressure when the temperature rises [13]. - **Relatively Stable Slaughter and Frozen Product Inventory Reaching Last Year's Level**: In April, the slaughter volume of domestic sample enterprises was relatively stable compared with the previous month and slightly increased year - on - year. The slaughter gross profit in April declined compared with the previous month but was better than last year. The demand is slightly better than the same period last year. The frozen product inventory has approached last year's level [17][19]. - **Increased Piglet Cost and Higher Out - of - Pen Cost for Purchased Piglets**: After the Spring Festival, pig prices fluctuated at a low level and slightly rose in late April, with the breeding profit remaining at a small profit level. Since January, the continuous increase in piglet prices has led to a significant increase in the out - of - pen cost for purchased piglets. The theoretical out - of - pen cost for purchased piglets will rise to the range of 15 - 16 yuan/kg [22]. 3. Conclusion and Market Outlook - The situation in April was similar to the core viewpoints. The market should be treated with a shock perspective, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling high and buying low between July and September contracts [24][25].