猪价的下跌也使得二次育肥养殖户信心降低，补栏行为减少，二次育肥热度下滑。 卓创资讯数据显示，2025年样本企业出栏量流入二次育肥渠道占比下滑。截至11月20日，2025年样本企 业生猪出栏量流入二次育肥渠道占比为12.95%，较2024年6月至年底下滑6.36个百分点；其中流入二次 育肥渠道占比大于10%的时间段占总时段的54%左右，较2024年6月至年底降低16个百分点左右。2025 年猪价震荡下滑，二次育肥养殖户对后市看涨预期不高，同时较低的猪价导致二次育肥养殖户长时段亏 损，叠加政策方面禁止二次育肥，使得二次育肥热度明显降低，对猪价的托底作用减弱。 2025年生猪市场中二次育肥热度明显下降，对猪价的托底效果有所减弱。后期来看，二次育肥或因季节 性需求与部分养殖模式选择仍有存在空间，但热度难有明显回升，2026年二次育肥或较难对猪价形成托 底作用。 2025年生猪价格低位震荡后震荡下滑。截至11月20日，卓创资讯监测2025年全国瘦肉型生猪均价为 14.04元／公斤，较2024年同期下跌16.72%。理论上，2025年生猪的出栏量是由2024年3月至2025年2月 份的能繁母猪存栏量决定的，彼时养殖端正处 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（11.17-11.23） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势震荡。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 20.9 元/公斤（上周 20.9 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.73 元/公斤（上周 11.98 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1548 元/头（上周 1548 元/ 头）。供应端，周内集团企业顺势增量，部分散户仍有惜售情绪；需求端，周内降温刺激消费增量，南北 均有消费提振。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.74KG（上周 124.62KG），出栏均重环比 上升 0.1%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2601 合约最高价为 11770 元/吨，最低价为 11330 元/吨，收盘价为 11350 元/吨（上周同期 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 16 日 生猪：降温刺激需求预期落地，供应压力凸显 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（11.10-11.16） 现货市场，生猪价格震荡调整。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 20.9 元/公斤（上周 20.9 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.98 元/公斤（上周 11.98 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1548 元/头（上周 1548 元/ 头）。供应端，周内集团企业出栏完成进度偏慢，散户仍有惜售情绪；需求端，周内消费整体稳定，虽有 降温备货预期，但整体表现较差。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.62KG（上周 124.65KG），出栏均重环比下降 0.02%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格震荡调整。本周生猪期货 LH2601 合约最高价为 12050 元/吨，最低价为 11690 元/吨，收盘价为 11775 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be stable with a slight increase in demand, but the support for prices is weak due to the wait - and - see attitude of secondary fattening, so it will mainly fluctuate. The futures market, especially the 2601 contract, is likely to be under dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 13th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 11,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,690 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,860 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous day. The total index positions decreased by 31 to 359,899 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: In the long run, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. In October, the concentrated secondary fattening and holding back of pigs increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in November was 26.66 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October, with the daily average remaining the same. Currently, farmers are mainly selling pigs at a normal pace [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: With the rebound of spot prices and the high utilization rate of pigsties, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the slaughter rate and volume have increased slightly. Mid - to - late - month pickling and enema may increase slightly. On November 13th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 162,900 heads, a decrease of 1,200 heads from the previous day, an increase of 2,300 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 3,600 heads month - on - month [7]. 2. Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - fattening pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [8][10]. 3. Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same year - on - year [15]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [15]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [15]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [15]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [15].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On the 12th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest price was 11,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,720 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,615 lots to 359,930 lots [6]. Spot Market - On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.75 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. Market Analysis - Supply side: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in November was 26.66 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27% compared with the actual sales volume in October, and the daily average was flat. Currently, farmers are slaughtering at a normal pace [7]. - Demand side: With the rebound of spot prices and the high utilization rate of pigsties, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. As the weather continues to cool, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises fluctuate slightly. Mid - to - late November may see a slight increase in bacon curing and sausage making. On November 12th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,100 heads, an increase of 17,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 5,000 heads [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, supply is stable and demand increases slightly, but with second - fattening in a wait - and - see state, the support for prices is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The demand elasticity of the 2601 contract still exists, but the relatively concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October, along with farmers' reluctance to sell and the continuous release of production capacity, may form double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term [7]. Group 3: Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [8][10] Group 4: Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same as the previous year [15]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [15]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening 110 - kg pigs to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening 125 - kg pigs to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [15]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [15]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall spot market has stabilized, mainly influenced by sales and secondary fattening. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight of national pigs in October was 128.08 kg, a decrease of 0.31 kg from September, and the overall reduction is still insufficient. Although the breeding profit and piglet profit are already in the red, the duration of the losses needs continuous monitoring. Demand remains largely unchanged before December, and the frozen product inventory is gradually rising back to normal levels. Overall, there is still pressure on pig sales from November to December, but the spot price fluctuations have gradually flattened recently due to secondary fattening. Futures prices fluctuate in tandem with the spot market, and attention should be paid to further release of production capacity in the later period [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Spot Price and Basis - On November 11, 2025, the national average pig price was 11.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg. The prices in various regions showed different degrees of decline, with the highest price in Guangdong at 12.68 yuan/kg and the lowest price in Guizhou at 11.24 yuan/kg. The basis between the spot price and LH2601 also showed different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Futures Price - On November 11, 2025, LH2601 closed at 11,755 yuan, a decrease of 200 yuan; LH2603 closed at 11,465 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; LH2605 closed at 12,065 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between LH01 - 03 was 290 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan; the spread between LH03 - 05 was -600 yuan, a decrease of 85 yuan [3] 3.3 Market Analysis - The overall spot market is stable, mainly affected by sales and secondary fattening. The average slaughter weight has decreased, but the reduction is still insufficient. Breeding and piglet profits are in the red, and the duration of losses needs to be monitored. Demand is stable before December, and frozen product inventory is rising. There is still pressure on pig sales from November to December, but spot price fluctuations have flattened. Futures prices fluctuate with the spot market, and attention should be paid to further release of production capacity [3]

Core Insights - The current pig price has shown a slight rebound, reaching just above 6 yuan/kg, but the momentum appears weak and unsustainable [2][3] - After a significant price increase in late October, the market has experienced a downturn, erasing previous gains and creating a cautious sentiment among producers [4][6] Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a mixed trend with fluctuations in prices, indicating a lack of strong upward or downward movement [3][4] - The concept of "secondary fattening" (二次育肥) is highlighted as a critical factor influencing the market, as it can significantly impact supply dynamics [6][12] Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of pigs is relatively stable, with no significant reductions expected unless a major disease outbreak occurs [8] - Consumer demand for pork is limited due to the availability of alternative protein sources, such as poultry and eggs, which are currently priced lower [9] - The elongation of the consumption cycle, particularly with the upcoming late Spring Festival, is expected to dilute the demand spike typically seen during festive periods [10] Future Outlook - While there is some potential for price support due to seasonal consumption increases, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, limiting the likelihood of significant price increases [12] - The reduction in secondary fattening activities reflects a broader uncertainty about market prospects, which may lead to only narrow fluctuations in pig prices moving forward [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot market for live pigs showed weak and volatile prices. The supply side had a slight reduction in enterprise volume at the beginning of the month, but the willingness of retail farmers to sell increased. The demand side was suppressed after the price increase, and the willingness to store in cold storage decreased, leading to weaker demand. The average slaughter weight increased slightly. In the futures market, the price of live pig futures fluctuated and adjusted, and the basis of the LH2601 contract decreased [1][2]. - Next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to run weakly. The supply is in a continuous incremental stage, and the pressure is expected to remain high. The demand is expected to weaken, and the spot price center may move further down. In the futures market, the LH2601 contract has pressure on inventory digestion before the Spring Festival, and the spot price is under continuous pressure. The far - end support is strengthened, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,300 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (11.3 - 11.9) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 20.9 yuan/kg (last week 19.95 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 11.98 yuan/kg (last week 12.53 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,548 yuan/head (last week 1,546 yuan/head). The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.65KG (last week 124.51KG), with a month - on - month increase of 0.11% [1]. - **Futures Market**: The highest price of the LH2601 contract of live pig futures this week was 12,015 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,580 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,865 yuan/ton (11,815 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 115 yuan/ton (715 yuan/ton last week) [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (11.10 - 11.16) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken, and the price center may move down [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2601 contract has inventory pressure before the Spring Festival, and the spot price is under continuous pressure. The far - end support is strengthened. The short - term support level is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,300 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week's basis was 115 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 spread was 400 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply Data**: In September, the pork production was 5.496 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the pork import was 80,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02% [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market still has certain supply pressure, and subsequent pig prices are expected to fluctuate with relatively limited changes [3]. - The futures market is mainly affected by the near - end spot price, and the overall situation will be in a fluctuating state with a relatively limited increase in supply pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices across the country continued to decline this week, with obvious supply pressure. Scale enterprises' slaughter volume remained stable, while ordinary farmers initially increased their slaughter volume and then resisted low prices. The number of second - fattening pigs increased, and the slaughter weight also rose, so the overall supply pressure still exists [3]. - In terms of demand, the weekly pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the frozen product inventory increased. Although the fresh - sale rate and price of pigs increased, the overall demand change was limited [3]. - In the futures market, pig prices continued to fall this week, and the futures market fluctuated. The main influencing factor was the near - end spot price. The subsequent supply pressure may increase slightly, and the market will mainly fluctuate [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis Pig Prices - Pig prices across the country declined this week. In Northeast China, it was 12 - 12.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 - 0.5 yuan/kg; in North China, 12.13 - 12.22 yuan/kg, down 0.35 yuan/kg; in Henan and Shandong, 11.93 - 12.02 yuan/kg, down 0.5 - 0.55 yuan/kg; in East China, 11.95 - 12.45 yuan/kg, down 0.45 - 0.6 yuan/kg; in Southwest China, 11.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg; in Central China, 11.46 - 12.3 yuan/kg, down 0.55 - 0.8 yuan/kg; in South China, 11.07 - 12.36 yuan/kg, down 0.7 - 1 yuan/kg [8]. - The early - week market slaughter pressure increased, and the number of second - fattening pigs decreased. As prices fell, farmers' acceptance of low prices declined, and the supply pressure improved [8]. Slaughter and Consumption Changes - In terms of slaughter, the early - week pig slaughter volume increased significantly, especially among ordinary farmers. The enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased initially and then increased as prices fell. Scale enterprises maintained a normal slaughter rhythm, and their monthly slaughter plan was adjusted down [9]. - The pig slaughter weight increased this week, and the price difference between large and small pigs decreased, partly due to the decrease in second - fattening. The overall supply pressure is expected to continue [9]. - In terms of consumption, the demand change was limited. The pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, the frozen product inventory increased, and the apparent consumption declined. However, the pig price was firm, and the fresh - sale rate increased, so the actual demand change was limited [9]. Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits increased slightly. As of the week of November 7, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, up 0.21 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 175.54 yuan/head, up 4.18 yuan/head from last week [15]. - Although pig prices continued to fall, the overall change was limited, and the cost decreased slightly, leading to a slight increase in breeding profits [15]. Sow & Piglet Prices - Piglet prices rebounded slightly. The price of 7 - kg piglets was 198 yuan/head, up 23 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 284 yuan/kg, up 19 yuan/head from last week. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was average [19]. - Sow prices also rebounded slightly. The sow price was 1546 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs increased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling decreased [19]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to Yongyi's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October decreased slightly month - on - month, with the comprehensive sample down 0.8% and scale enterprises down 0.77% [22]. - According to Ganglian's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October increased 0.11% month - on - month, with scale enterprises up 0.12% and small and medium - sized farmers down 0.14% [22]. - Considering the breeding profit loss, the number of culled sows may increase [22].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in pig prices has raised concerns in the pig farming industry, with prices falling below 6 yuan per kilogram, but there are indications that this downward trend may be slowing down [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Although supply still exceeds demand, the situation is not dire enough to cause a panic sell-off, as market sentiment remains relatively stable [3]. - The willingness of farmers to hold prices is increasing, especially with the upcoming consumption peak season, making it unlikely for them to exit the market at this time [3][6]. Seasonal Factors - The onset of winter is expected to boost pork consumption, as seasonal products like cured meats and sausages will soon be in demand [6]. - However, there is a risk that the market may misinterpret the seasonal demand as a strong recovery, while the reality is that maintaining prices above 6 yuan is already a challenge [7]. Factors Influencing Price Recovery - Two main factors could drive pig prices up: the willingness for secondary fattening and consumer demand [8][12]. - Secondary fattening can temporarily reduce supply, which may lead to price increases, but the current market sentiment is cautious, and the motivation for farmers to engage in this practice is not strong [9][11]. Consumer Behavior - Recent holiday seasons have shown weak consumer demand, indicating that the expected seasonal consumption boost may not materialize as strongly as in previous years [12]. - Economic constraints are leading consumers to be more cautious with spending, impacting overall pork consumption [12][15]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The reduction in pig production capacity is slow, and while there are efforts to improve efficiency by replacing low-yield sows with high-yield ones, the actual supply pressure remains significant [15]. - The focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement means that even with a decrease in the number of breeding sows, the effective supply may not decrease proportionately due to increased productivity [15].