1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 31, the main 2605 contract of live pigs in the futures market opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 10,030 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9,770 yuan/ton, a 2.30% drop from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 18,945 lots to 464,867 lots. The average price of ternary pigs in the spot market was 9.42 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous day [8]. - On the supply side, the monthly slaughter volume continued to increase, and the production capacity continued to be realized. The slaughter volume of the breeding sector in April may continue to increase, and the slaughter weight remained at a high level, so the supply pressure remained high, and the overall supply level was still loose. On the demand side, as the price dropped to a low level and the price difference between fat and lean pigs remained advantageous, secondary fattening continued to enter the market in small quantities in some areas. Currently, the terminal demand continued to increase slowly, the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly. Overall, in the spot market, the demand continued to increase slowly, but the supply pressure was still high, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose, so the spot price was mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, with sufficient production capacity, the supply of live pigs was expected to increase slightly, and secondary fattening was constantly entering the market in small quantities. Meanwhile, it was the off - season for consumption, which provided weak support for the market. Hedging funds continued to enter the market, so the 05/07 contracts were mainly weak. Attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures: On March 31, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, closing at 9,770 yuan/ton, down 2.30% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 18,945 lots to 464,867 lots [8]. - Spot: On March 31, the national average price of ternary pigs was 9.42 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous day [8]. - Supply: At the end of the month, the slaughter volume continued to increase, and the production capacity continued to be realized. The slaughter volume in April may continue to increase, and the slaughter weight remained high, so the supply pressure was still high [9]. - Demand: The price dropped to a low level, and secondary fattening continued to enter the market in small quantities in some areas. The terminal demand continued to increase slowly, the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly. On March 31, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 159,900 heads, an increase of 2,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 5,700 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 34,000 heads [9]. - Outlook: In the spot market, the demand continued to increase slowly, but the supply pressure was still high, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose, so the spot price was mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, the 05/07 contracts were mainly weak, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9]. 3.2行业要闻 - As of March 19, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.21 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.15 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 yuan/kg [10]. 3.3数据概览 - As of March 19, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was - 292 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 15.6 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with purchased piglets was - 189 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/head [20]. - In the week of March 19, the average market sales price of 6.5 - kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [20]. - In the week of March 19, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.62 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05% [20]. - In the week of March 19, the cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg was 10.17 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 10.21 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The feed price and pig price did not change significantly, the purchase cost was stable, and the secondary fattening cost did not change much [20].

Report Overview - Report Date: March 27, 2026 [1] - Industry: Agricultural Products - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Oils and Fats**: The current oils and fats market is mainly driven by external crude oil. With the ongoing Middle - East conflict supporting oil prices, the demand for biofuel raw materials is boosted, keeping the oils and fats sector at a high level. However, if the macro - situation cools down, prices may correct from high levels due to factors like seasonal palm oil production increases, more imported soybeans, and weak demand. [8] - **Corn**: The supply of corn in the spot market is increasing as the temperature rises, but the remaining grassroots grain is limited. The demand from the feed and deep - processing industries is improving, and the overall supply - demand pattern may remain tight. Corn futures prices may be mainly range - bound and strong, but the upside space is limited. [88] - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs remains abundant, and although the demand is slowly recovering, the supply - demand situation is still loose. Spot prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and futures prices of contracts 05/07 are expected to trend weakly. [131] - **Cotton**: The external cotton market is strong, while the domestic market lacks new driving forces. Short - term prices are range - bound and rising. Attention should be paid to the new cotton planting expectations and actual planting conditions for the 2026/27 season. [137] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The oils and fats market is driven by external crude oil. The Middle - East conflict supports oil prices and biofuel demand. It is recommended to buy at low prices and reduce positions when crude oil surges sharply. If the macro - situation cools down, prices may correct. [8] - **Core Points** - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of March 27, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China increased by 130 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [10] - **Domestic Three - Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 203.48 million tons, a weekly decrease of 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. [20] - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: The soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills decreased slightly, and the import soybean inventory in ports decreased. The crushing rate of imported rapeseed increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. [21][28] - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In March 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the export data was strong, supporting the price of palm oil. [34][38] - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds reduced their net long positions in CBOT soybeans for the first time in eight weeks, set a record high in net long positions in Chicago soybean oil, and continued to buy net in the CBOT soybean meal futures market for the eighth consecutive week. [42] 3.2 Corn - **Market Review**: The national corn price was adjusted narrowly in the range this week. The futures price of the main 2605 contract on the Dalian Exchange fell by 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. [46] - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress continued to increase this week, with an overall slowdown compared to the same period last year. The inventory in northern ports increased, and the inventory in southern ports decreased. [49][50][52] - **Domestic Substitutes**: The wheat market was weak this week, and the price gap between corn and wheat widened. [53] - **Imported Substitute Grains**: In January - February 2026, the import of grains increased year - on - year, and the import of some grains increased significantly. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the substitution advantage of imported grains still exists. [54] - **Feed Demand**: From January to February 2026, the national industrial feed output increased year - on - year. The feed demand is expected to continue to increase slightly due to the growth of hog inventory. The average inventory time of feed enterprises increased. [67][73][76] - **Deep - processing Demand**: The starch production rate and output increased, and the processing profit improved. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased. [80][81] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the corn planting area, yield, and output in China are expected to increase, the import volume remains unchanged, and the demand is expected to increase. [85] - **Outlook and Strategy**: The spot price of corn is expected to be mainly range - bound and strong, and the futures price of contracts 2605/07 is expected to be the same, but the upside is limited. Spot enterprises are recommended to replenish inventory on a rolling basis, and futures investors are recommended to hold long - term long positions and reduce positions on rallies. [88][89] 3.3 Hogs - **Market Review**: This week, the spot price of hogs continued to fall, and the futures price of the main contract LH2605 also declined. The supply was abundant, and the demand was seasonally weak. [90][92] - **Fundamental Overview** - **Long - term Supply**: The price of binary sows decreased. The theoretical pig slaughter volume is expected to change based on the inventory of breeding sows, with a slight increase in the first half of the year. [97][98][99] - **Medium - term Supply**: The price of piglets decreased, and the inventory of piglets decreased slightly. The theoretical pig slaughter volume is expected to change accordingly. [108] - **Short - term Supply**: The inventory of large hogs increased in February, and the proportion of large hogs over 140 kg decreased. The secondary fattening situation was average. [110][111] - **Current Supply**: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in March increased, and the average slaughter weight increased slightly. [114][115] - **Import Supply**: In January - February 2026, the cumulative import volume of pork decreased year - on - year. [121] - **Secondary Fattening Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening weakened, and the cost decreased. [125] - **Slaughter Demand**: The slaughtering rate of enterprises increased, and it is expected to rise slightly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. [129][130] - **Outlook**: The spot price of hogs is expected to be weak and volatile, and the futures price of contracts 05/07 is expected to trend weakly. Futures investors are recommended to hold short positions and reduce positions on dips. Hog - farming enterprises are recommended to hold hedging short positions and reduce positions as they slaughter. [131] 3.4 Cotton - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The external cotton market was strong, and Zhengzhou cotton closed up in a range. The domestic spot cotton basis weakened, and the downstream market was generally trading. The USDA March supply - demand report was bearish, but the market has focused on the 2026/27 season. Attention should be paid to the USDA cotton planting intention survey results. [135][136][137] - **Core Points** - **Main Cotton - Producing Countries**: The USDA March supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation for the 2025/26 season, increasing the output, trade volume, and ending inventory, and reducing the consumption. [138] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of March 19, 2025/2026, the net signing and shipment of US cotton increased week - on - week. [145] - **Textile Enterprises**: As of March 20, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises increased, the yarn inventory decreased, the fabric inventory decreased, and the operating load of yarn and fabric increased. [147] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of March 27, 2026, the basis of the cotton 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread both decreased. [158] - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 17, the non - commercial net long positions in US cotton increased. As of March 26, the total number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased. [160]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are pressured by crude oil trends and may test the support at 4,500 ringgit. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward adjustment, seeking support at 9,500 yuan, with a chance of a weak rebound but continued downward pressure [1]. - CBOT soybean oil may rise if the US biodiesel policy is favorable. In China, if the zero - tolerance policy for Brazilian soybeans is relaxed, soybean supply will increase, dragging down the spot basis [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy and the development of the Middle East conflict. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis fluctuates within 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by a stronger US dollar and inflation concerns. US cotton production is expected to be around 3.05 million tons. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 65 - 70 cents/pound. In China, the cotton price may also oscillate widely due to the balance of long - and short - term factors [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reach a five - month high, supported by energy prices. Brazilian sugar production may be affected by the preference for ethanol production. Indian sugar production is approaching the end of the season. Short - term raw sugar is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. In China, sugar imports in January - February exceed expectations. The spot market has weak sales but stable prices, and the futures market is strong but limited by weak production and sales in February and increased industrial inventory [4]. Red Dates - Affected by macro funds and the good quality of new dates, the futures market rebounds slightly from the low - valuation range, but the upside is limited by weak market conditions. In the off - season, the consumption end is weak, inventory reduction is slow, and the number of futures warehouse receipts registered is decreasing year - on - year. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6]. Apples - The apple spot market shows a more obvious structural differentiation. Good - quality apples have a better trading atmosphere, while ordinary apples in Shandong have inventory pressure. The national apple cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of ordinary apples and weather changes [11]. Corn and Corn Starch - The supply and demand of corn in the Northeast and North China are relatively balanced, and prices are stable. The demand from deep - processing enterprises exists, but feed enterprises' demand for high - priced corn is average, and wheat substitution is increasing. Policy wheat auctions may squeeze corn demand. Corn prices are under pressure but limited by low social inventory, and the operation range is 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [14]. Meal - The US soybean futures are oscillating around 1,160 cents, with mixed long - and short factors. The domestic soybean meal market has fully priced in concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity. The concern about delayed arrivals of Brazilian soybeans is easing, and the spot market is weak. Short - term inventory is expected to be tight, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March [16]. Pigs - The futures and spot prices of pigs continue to decline, and market sentiment is pessimistic. The large number of pig sales, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening. In the off - season, downstream procurement recovers slowly, and the increase in slaughter volume has limited impact. The market focuses on secondary fattening and frozen product storage. The price may stop falling after breaking 10,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price is expected to continue to bottom out [18]. Eggs - On the supply side, the price of culled chickens is high and shows a downward trend, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens has increased. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly but is still at a relatively low level. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure is not large this week. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, but the supply is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. The terminal demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with decreases of 16.22%, 59.26%, and 9.24% respectively. The spot and futures prices of various oils also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 100% to 0 [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 remained unchanged, while the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.23%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 33.33%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 1.07%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, while the valid forecast increased by 22.06% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased. The spreads between 3128B and futures contracts and between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% all increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, the bonded area inventory increased by 9.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2%, the grey fabric inventory days increased by 0.3%, the spinning enterprise's processing profit decreased by 4.8%, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 7.7%, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and textiles decreased by 82.9%, and the export volume of textile yarns and clothing decreased [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased by 0.44% and 0.40% respectively, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.90%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 3.77%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the valid forecast increased from 0 to 520 [4]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased, and the spreads between imported sugar and Nanning prices also increased [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales nationwide and in Guangxi decreased, the sugar sales rate decreased, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased significantly [4]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, and the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 spreads also increased. The open interest increased by 0.41%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the valid forecast increased by 45.98%, and the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 1.87% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [6]. Apples - **Futures Market**: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.71%, the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.09%, the basis decreased by 6.35%, the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 4.25%, the open interest decreased by 10.12%, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 6.26% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at some fruit wholesale markets increased [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 decreased by 1.33%, the Jinzhou Port FAS price increased by 0.21%, the basis increased by 370.00%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 61.54%, the Shekou Port market price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit increased by 35.71%, the Brazilian CIF duty - paid price decreased by 0.76%, the import profit increased by 14.08%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 19.09%, the open interest decreased by 1.61%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 decreased by 1.18%, the average price of corn starch decreased by 0.13%, the basis increased by 16.48%, the Weifang spot price decreased by 0.33%, the Changchun spot price remained unchanged, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 150.00%, the 05 spread between starch and corn decreased by 0.26%, the Shandong starch profit remained unchanged, the open interest decreased by 2.06%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.90%, the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.73%, the basis decreased by 2.49%, the spot basis quote remained unchanged, the Brazilian May shipment basis import crushing profit decreased by 5.6%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.6% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.12%, the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.99%, the basis decreased by 2.43%, the Canadian July shipment basis import crushing profit increased by 400.00%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [16]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.83%, the basis increased by 9.76%, the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract 2 remained unchanged, the basis remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.50% [16]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the ratio of soybean to rapeseed meal in the spot market increased by 0.68%, the ratio of oil to meal in the main contract decreased by 0.14%, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spreads in the spot market and 2605 contract remained basically unchanged [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 36.36%, the price of pig 2605 increased by 0.65%, the price of pig 2603 decreased by 3.23%, the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 53.68%, the main contract open interest increased by 2.41%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in various regions decreased to different degrees, and the slaughter rate decreased by 0.47%, the white - strip price, piglet price, and sow price remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.05%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 5.13%, the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 19.72%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.73% [18]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 04 and 05 contracts decreased by 0.66% and 1.22% respectively, the basis increased by 27.56%, and the 4 - 5 spread increased by 18.35% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price increased by 2.86%, the culled - chicken price increased by 1.25%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.24%, and the breeding profit increased by 9.98% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg sector is neutral [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the pig market, the current supply - demand imbalance persists, with supply exceeding demand, and pig prices are expected to remain under pressure. In the egg market, the current price increase is driven by pre - holiday stocking, and after the stocking sentiment fades, the market may return to a volatile adjustment pattern [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2605 contract yesterday was 9,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 240.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.35%. [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer three - yuan live hogs was 9.85 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 10.21 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 9.66 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous trading day. The national average wholesale price of pork on March 23 was 16.01 yuan/kg, a 0.2% increase from last Friday [1] Market Analysis - At the beginning of the week, the spot price of live hogs continued the weak trend of the weekend, with the decline rate increasing and the decline in the north stronger than in the south. Piglet prices also continued to decline. Breeders generally have expectations of reducing weight and selling, and the short - term live hog supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The overall supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and pig prices are expected to be under pressure [2] Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is to be cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2605 contract yesterday was 3,443 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 34.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 1.00%. [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.11 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.07 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 3.16 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.09. On March 23, the national production - link inventory was 0.81 days, a decrease of 0.08 days from the previous day, a decrease of 8.99%, and the circulation - link inventory remained unchanged [3] Market Analysis - The spot price of eggs continued to be strong, mainly driven by pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking. However, the overall egg supply is still abundant, and after the stocking sentiment fades, the egg price may lack upward momentum and return to a volatile adjustment pattern [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is neutral [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Futures: On the 12th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then冲高回落 and fluctuated downwards, closing in the red at the end. The highest price was 11,235 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,130 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 11,076 lots to 370,402 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 12th, the national average price of三元外 pigs was 10.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Comments - Supply side: The production capacity continues to be realized, and the slaughter of the breeding side may continue to increase. A small amount of pig sources in February were postponed to March for slaughter. According to sample data from Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume in March is 27.25 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 25.29% in the monthly planned volume. Therefore, the supply-side pressure remains high, and the overall supply level is still loose [9]. - Demand side: The price has fallen to a low level, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is significantly advantageous. In some areas, a small amount of secondary fattening has entered the market. After the festival, the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased significantly, mainly digesting the festival inventory, and the trading is light. At present, the consumption is slowly increasing in a restorative manner, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. Data shows that on March 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 142,400 heads, an increase of 16,000 heads compared with the previous day, a week-on-week increase of 6,000 heads, and a month-on-month decrease of 144,000 heads [9]. - Overall: In the spot market, the demand is slowly increasing in a restorative manner after the festival, but the supply pressure is still high, and the supply and demand are still relatively loose. The spot price is mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, the production capacity is sufficient, and the supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase. At the same time, it is the off-season for consumption, and the support for the market is weak. The 05/07 contracts are mainly fluctuating weakly, but attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9]. Group 3: Industry News - As of March 5, the expected cost of self-breeding and self-raising was 12.10 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of fattening pigs purchased externally is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening pigs purchased externally to 125 kg and then sold is 12.51 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg [10][12]. Group 4: Data Overview - As of March 5, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was -206.3 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 46.7 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening pigs purchased externally was -152.5 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9 yuan/head [21]. - According to Yongyi Consulting, the average market sales price of 6.5 kg piglets in the week of March 5 was 348 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head compared with the previous week [21]. - In the week of March 5, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.15 kg, an increase of 0.42 kg compared with the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 0.33%, an increase of 2.10 kg compared with the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 1.67%, and an increase of 1.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 0.86% [21]. - In the week of March 5, the cost of purchasing 110 kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg was 10.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg compared with the previous week; the cost of fattening 125 kg pigs to 150 kg was 10.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.25 yuan/kg compared with the previous week [21].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the swine industry, specifically the trends in pig prices and supply dynamics post-Chinese New Year [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Current Price Trends - After the Chinese New Year, the average price of pigs has been declining, with the national average for three-way cross pigs currently at 10.2 yuan per kilogram, down from 11 yuan the previous week [2][3]. - The price is expected to remain stable between 10 and 11 yuan per kilogram through March and into early April, with some regions experiencing prices below 10 yuan [2][3]. Supply Dynamics - The current oversupply is attributed to high average weights at slaughter, with the average weight reported at 127.73 kg, which is 4 kg higher than the same period last year [3][4]. - The weight of pigs from smallholders is particularly high, averaging 141.3 kg, indicating that many pigs were not sold before the New Year [4][5]. - The price gap between fat pigs and standard pigs has disappeared, with some regions seeing fat pigs priced lower than standard pigs, indicating a supply surplus [5][6]. Market Expectations - The expert predicts that the oversupply will continue into March and April, with no significant price increases expected due to weak consumer demand and high average weights [6][7]. - There is skepticism about the effectiveness of secondary fattening and frozen product storage in supporting prices, as the current market conditions do not favor these practices [7][8]. Long-term Supply Outlook - The expert anticipates that pig supply will remain high until at least August, driven by stable breeding sow numbers and production efficiency improvements [12][13]. - The profitability of pig farming is under pressure, with current prices leading to losses for producers, which may eventually impact breeding sow numbers if losses persist [14][15]. Breeding and Production Efficiency - The average profit for piglets is around 350 yuan, with production costs for weaned piglets at approximately 270-280 yuan, indicating some profitability in piglet production [13][15]. - The industry is seeing a shift towards higher efficiency breeding stock, with many producers looking to replace older sows with more productive breeds [26][40]. Seasonal Trends and Future Expectations - The expert noted that the seasonal demand for piglets typically peaks in March and April, but this year, prices have not followed the usual upward trend post-New Year [18][19]. - If the market conditions do not improve, there is a risk that pig prices could decline earlier and more sharply than in previous years [19][20]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is cautious, with expectations of continued low prices and high supply levels in the near term. The industry is closely monitoring the impact of production costs and market dynamics on future breeding decisions and overall profitability [30][33].

Summary of Conference Call on Livestock Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the livestock industry, specifically the pig and beef sectors, with insights gathered from field research in Inner Mongolia and Shandong Province [1][12]. Key Points on Swine Industry Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply pressure in the swine market remains significant, with slaughter weights reported at over 120 kg, the highest for this period historically [1][2]. - A price inversion for fat pigs has emerged in some regions, contrasting with last year's premium prices post-Chinese New Year, indicating an oversupply of large pigs [2]. - Fresh meat demand is at its lowest in recent years, with slaughterhouses reporting sales rates of only 40%-60%, significantly below the typical 80% [2][7]. Secondary Fatting and Slaughterhouse Inventory - The lack of price premiums for fat pigs has weakened the incentive for secondary fattening, leading to reduced participation in this practice [3][4]. - Slaughterhouses are experiencing high inventory levels, with 60%-70% capacity utilization, indicating a significant backlog due to poor fresh meat demand [5][6]. - Despite low pig prices, slaughterhouses face financial constraints that limit their operational capabilities [6]. Price Outlook - The overall outlook for pig prices suggests continued low levels without significant upward pressure, as both secondary fattening and slaughterhouse inventory management are constrained [7][12]. - The price of piglets is currently profitable, but demand is weak, and expectations for a seasonal increase in demand may not materialize [8][9]. Culling and Production Adjustments - There is a marginal increase in culling rates, with a noted decrease in the average parity of sows being culled [10][11]. - The industry anticipates a potential acceleration in culling if piglet prices decline significantly, particularly as the second quarter approaches [11][12]. Key Points on Beef Industry Supply and Demand Dynamics - Beef supply is tightening, with significant reductions in cattle inventory reported in various regions, including a 40% reduction in production capacity in the Tongliao area [12][13][14]. - Demand for beef remains robust, with reports of high prices for cattle, indicating a strong market despite previous price declines [14][15]. Profitability and Market Sentiment - The beef sector is currently profitable, contrasting with the swine sector, which is experiencing losses [15][19]. - Producers are cautious about long-term investments in breeding cattle due to past losses, preferring quicker turnover strategies [16][17]. Future Outlook - The beef market is expected to enter an upward cycle, supported by tightening global beef supplies and reduced import pressures [19][20]. - The overall sentiment in the beef sector is optimistic, with expectations for sustained profitability over the next two years [19][20]. Conclusion - The swine industry faces significant challenges with low prices and high supply pressures, while the beef sector shows signs of recovery and profitability. The dynamics in both sectors suggest a need for careful monitoring of market conditions and pricing trends moving forward [21].

Summary of Conference Call on Pig Price Trends Industry Overview - The conference focused on the pig farming industry, specifically addressing the future trends of pig prices and capacity regulation measures implemented by the government [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Capacity Regulation**: The target for breeding sows has been lowered to 36.5 million heads, a reduction of 3.11 million from the previous target set for the end of 2025, aimed at increasing pig prices to boost CPI and combat deflation [1][2]. 2. **Losses in the Industry**: The industry is currently experiencing losses, with an average loss of approximately 200 RMB per pig. The price of culling sows has dropped to 70% of the price of fat pigs, indicating a significant decline in profitability [1][4]. 3. **Supply Pressure**: There is ongoing supply pressure, with an increase in daily slaughter rates observed in March. It is expected that pig prices will continue to "test the bottom" in the next 2-3 months, potentially dropping to 9.5-10 RMB per kilogram [1][5]. 4. **Future Price Trends**: The price turning point is anticipated to become evident around July-August 2026, with the loss period likely extending until mid-2026 due to strong supply inertia and low willingness to replenish breeding stock [1][6]. 5. **Cost Structure**: The average industry cost is around 12.5 RMB per kilogram, with cash costs approximately 11 RMB per kilogram. Futures contracts are expected to see a downward trend, potentially reaching around 10,000 RMB per ton [1][18]. 6. **Regulatory Measures**: The introduction of a "filing system" aims to enhance the precision and verifiability of production capacity regulation, requiring companies to clearly document the locations and numbers of breeding sows [2][3]. 7. **Market Sentiment**: Despite some companies beginning to implement reduction measures, there remains a portion of the industry that is hesitant and waiting for clearer signals before acting [3]. 8. **Future Supply Dynamics**: The supply pressure is expected to persist, with increased slaughtering activity post-Chinese New Year and ongoing requirements for capacity reduction, leading to continued downward pressure on prices [5][10]. 9. **Secondary Fattening Behavior**: There is a potential for secondary fattening to occur if prices drop significantly, particularly if spot prices fall below 10 RMB per kilogram, which could trigger more investment in this area [7][11]. 10. **Price Forecasts**: The average pig price is projected to be around 10.6-10.7 RMB per kilogram in March 2026, with expectations of a further decline in April due to low demand [10][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The industry is characterized by a reluctance to exit even during losses, leading to prolonged periods of low profitability [17]. - **Futures Market Influence**: The futures market is becoming increasingly relevant for decision-making among industry participants, with a focus on hedging strategies based on market sentiment [8]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The potential for a price rebound exists if capacity restrictions are effectively enforced, but this is contingent on the government's regulatory approach and the industry's response [14][16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts regarding the pig farming industry and its pricing dynamics as discussed in the conference call.

1. Report Industry and Date - Industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: March 6, 2026 [1] 2. Researchers - Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 3. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 4. Core Views 4.1 Oils - The short - term support for the oils market comes from the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, which boosts crude oil prices and strengthens the biodiesel attribute of the oils sector. The oils market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil and be viewed positively, but chasing high prices is not recommended. The strength relationship among the three major oils is expected to be palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil. [8] - In the long - term, the continuous Middle - East conflict is expected to support crude oil prices in 2026, which in turn provides potential support for palm oil prices and strengthens the upward momentum of the global edible oil market. [9] 4.2 Corn - The supply of corn in the spot market may increase, but the selling pressure is reduced. The overall supply - demand pattern may still be tight, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the futures market, the 2605/07 contracts are also expected to fluctuate strongly. [97] 4.3 Hogs - The spot price of hogs may bottom - out and rebound as the low price may stimulate the demand for secondary fattening, while the 05/07 futures contracts may fluctuate weakly. [140] 4.4 Soybean Meal - Due to the macro - events and the impact of the Middle - East conflict, CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal may continue to be slightly strong. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish before the Strait is unsealed. [145][146] 4.5 Eggs - In the short - term, the spot price of eggs is expected to remain in the low - level inventory digestion stage. Based on the inflation expectation caused by the Middle - East situation, the market may start to trade the expectation of reduced replenishment enthusiasm. It is advisable to pay attention to the layout opportunities of long positions in the peak season of the second half of the year. [184] 4.6 Cotton - The cotton market is expected to adjust in the short - term, but the upward trend remains unchanged. It is necessary to wait for the performance of peak - season demand, the planting intention report, and the target price policy. [209] 4.7 Sugar - The raw sugar index is weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar index is facing pressure at the 5400 level. The spot price is weak, and the basis is expanding. [237][238][240] 5. Summary by Directory 5.1 Oils 5.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The three major oils show a differentiated trend. The strength relationship is expected to be palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil. The short - term support comes from the Middle - East conflict. For arbitrage, go long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil. [8] - Palm oil: The inventory in Malaysia at the end of February is expected to decline. The long - term conflict in the Middle - East may support palm oil prices. [9] - Soybean oil: The rise of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil provides support for the domestic market. The domestic soybean oil is in a de - stocking cycle, but the large arrival in the second quarter may ease the supply. [9] - Rapeseed oil: After the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the policy risk is alleviated. The supply is tight, and the downside support is strong. [10] 5.1.2 Core Points - Domestic spot changes: As of March 6, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil have increased week - on - week, while the basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil has decreased. [11] - Domestic three - major oils inventory: As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils has increased week - on - week, with different trends in each oil. [21] - Domestic oils and oilseeds supply: The soybean and rapeseed oil mill opening rates have increased week - on - week but are still at a low level. The soybean processing volume has increased, and the import situation of soybeans and rapeseeds is different. [22][32] - Palm oil dynamics: The production of palm oil in Malaysia in January 2026 decreased, and different institutions have different forecasts for February. The export data shows a certain trend. [35][36] - CFTC positions: Speculative funds have continuously increased net long positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures markets. [50] 5.2 Corn 5.2.1 Market Review - The spot price of corn has been strong this week. The futures price of the Dalian main 2605 contract has increased. [54] 5.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - Corn supply: The grain - selling progress has increased after the festival, but it is still slower than the same period last year. The port inventory shows different trends in the north and the south. [56][57] - Domestic substitutes: The wheat market is strong, and the price difference between corn and wheat exists. [59] - Imported substitute grains: The import volume of various grains in 2025 shows different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the import volume of other grains may increase. [61][74] - Feed demand: The feed production in 2025 has increased. The pig inventory is expected to drive the feed demand, and the feed enterprise inventory has decreased. [75][79][80] - Deep - processing demand: The corn starch industry's opening rate and production have increased, but the processing profit is still in a loss state. The deep - processing enterprise inventory has decreased. [83][84][85] - Supply - demand balance sheet: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the production of corn in the 2025/26 season will increase, and the consumption will also increase slightly. [92] 5.2.3 Later Outlook and Strategy - The spot price of corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the futures price of 2605/07 contracts is also expected to be strong. The strategy for spot enterprises is to replenish inventory at low prices, and for futures investors, to hold long positions. [97] 5.3 Hogs 5.3.1 Market Review - The spot price of hogs has decreased this week, and the futures price of the main LH2605 contract has also declined. [99][100] 5.3.2 Fundamental Overview - Long - term supply: The price of binary sows is expected to fluctuate. The number of sows of child - bearing age shows different trends in different data sources, and the theoretical pig slaughter volume in the future is predicted accordingly. [104][105] - Medium - term supply: The price of piglets has decreased, and the inventory of piglets shows a certain trend, which is related to the future pig slaughter volume. [114] - Short - term supply: The large - pig inventory and the situation of pressure - barring and secondary fattening are analyzed, and the short - term pig slaughter volume is predicted. [118][119] - Current supply: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in February has decreased, and the average slaughter weight has increased slightly. [122][123] - Import supply: The pork import volume in 2025 has decreased. [130] - Secondary fattening demand: There is secondary fattening replenishment after the festival, and the cost and price difference are analyzed. [133] - Slaughter demand: The slaughter enterprise's opening rate has increased this week and is expected to adjust slightly in the future. [137] 5.3.3 Later Outlook - The spot price of hogs may bottom - out and rebound, and the 05/07 futures contracts may fluctuate weakly. The strategy for futures investors is to hold short positions and reduce positions at low prices, and for breeding enterprises, to hold hedging short positions and reduce positions with slaughter. [140] 5.4 Soybean Meal 5.4.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot price of soybean meal has been slightly strong. The futures price of CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal has increased due to the Middle - East conflict. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish before the Strait is unsealed. [144][145][146] 5.4.2 Core Points - Soybean planting: The production and inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season are analyzed. The planting area, yield, and demand of US soybeans and the production forecast of South American soybeans are provided. [147][148] - US soybean export: The US soybean export data shows a certain trend, and the future procurement situation needs attention. [153] - Domestic soybean import and crushing: The crushing profit, crushing volume, opening rate, import volume, and inventory of domestic soybeans are analyzed. [162][163][165] - Soybean meal transaction and inventory: The inventory of soybean meal has decreased, and the future demand is related to the import soybean auction. [169] - Basis and inter - month spread: The basis of soybean meal has decreased, and the 5 - 7 spread has widened slightly. [175] - Domestic registered warehouse receipts: The number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts is at the highest level in the same period in history. [181] 5.5 Eggs 5.5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot price of eggs has been weak first and then stable. The futures price has changed little. Based on the inflation expectation, it is advisable to pay attention to the layout opportunities of long positions in the peak season of the second half of the year. [184] 5.5.2 Data Summary - Inventory and replenishment: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the same period, and the replenishment momentum has slowed down. The proportion of different - aged hens and egg sizes is analyzed. [185][189] - Cost, income, and breeding profit: The egg price has decreased, the feed cost is at a medium level, the chick price is at a medium level, and the breeding profit is at a very low level. [194] - Culled hens: The culling volume has increased, the culling age has been delayed, and the culled hen price is at a medium - low level in the same period. [196] - Demand, inventory, and hog price: The egg sales volume is at a low level in the same period, the inventory is relatively high, and the hog price is at a low level in the same period. [202] 5.6 Cotton 5.6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The outer - market cotton has fluctuated and declined, and the Zhengzhou cotton has adjusted. The domestic spot market is not active, and the market demand is gradually released. The short - term market is expected to adjust with a strong trend unchanged. [207][208][209] 5.6.2 Core Points - Cotton - producing countries' situation: The USDA's February supply - demand report has adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with changes in inventory, production, trade, and consumption. [210] - US cotton export situation: The US cotton sales and shipment data in the 2025/2026 season show different trends. [217] - Textile enterprise operation: The cotton and cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises and the load index of yarn and grey cloth are analyzed. [219] - Basis and inter - month spread: The basis has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased. [230] - CFTC positions and domestic registered warehouse receipts: The non - commercial net position of US cotton has increased, and the number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts has increased. [233] 5.7 Sugar 5.7.1 Data Overview - The raw sugar index is weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar index has tested the 5400 level. The spot price is weak, and the basis is expanding. The 5 - 9 spread has changed little, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. [237][238][240][242] - The production situation in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season is analyzed, including sugar production, ethanol production, and related ratios. The import processing profit of raw sugar has increased, and the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar has decreased. [244][245][248][249]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: By comprehensively considering the planned slaughter volume, large pigs, piglets, and sow inventory, the pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until April, decline slightly from May to August, and increase slightly from September to November. By November, the year-on-year growth will continue, but the growth rate will narrow. Also, pre - holiday pressure - barring and second - fattening pigs were actively slaughtered, reducing the post - holiday supply pressure, but there are still some fat pigs to be slaughtered. With high fat pig prices and a favorable fat - to - standard price difference, the slaughter weight may increase slightly [8][59]. - Demand side: In March, as the market gradually resumes work and school, the terminal market is in the post - holiday traditional off - season, mainly digesting holiday inventories. Traders make rigid - demand purchases, and the operating rate may increase slowly in March. Currently, the fat - to - standard price difference is significant. To meet the demand for the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, second - fattening may enter the market when prices drop to a low level in March, supporting prices [8][59]. - Viewpoint: In terms of spot, in March, the production capacity will continue to be realized, and the slaughter of the breeding side may continue to increase. After the holiday, the breeding side resumes slaughter, and a small amount of February pig sources are postponed to March, so the supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, it is the post - holiday traditional off - season, mainly digesting holiday inventories, but second - fattening may have replenishment demand, which may support prices. Overall, the supply and demand of live pig spot in March remain relatively loose, but low prices may stimulate the increase in second - fattening demand, and prices may bottom out and rebound. In terms of futures, with sufficient production capacity, the live pig supply is expected to increase slightly. Meanwhile, it is the post - holiday consumption off - season, so the 05/07 contracts will mainly fluctuate weakly, but attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent second - fattening [8][59]. - Strategy: 1. Futures investors: Hold short positions and reduce positions on dips; 2. Breeding enterprises: Hold hedging short positions and reduce positions as they slaughter [8][60]. - Important variables: Swine fever epidemic, consistent expectations such as pressure - barring and second - fattening, environmental protection policies, etc. [8][61] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Spot: In February, the national live pig price first rose and then fell, and the monthly average price center moved down significantly. During the Spring Festival, the breeding side arranged most of the slaughter plan in the first ten - day period, and large - scale enterprises increased the slaughter of large - weight pigs. In the southern region, due to factors such as the slower - than - expected return of the population before the festival and the pre - consumption of terminal consumption, the pig price dropped significantly after reaching a high. In terms of demand, although it was the traditional consumption peak season in February, the overall consumption support was limited. The slaughter volume of the slaughter side decreased slightly due to the Spring Festival holiday. According to Yongyi data, the average national live pig slaughter price in February was 11.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 7.89% [10]. - Breeding cost and profit: By the end of February, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.10 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 yuan/kg compared with 13 yuan/kg. The cost of fattening pigs with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.60 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 1.75 yuan/kg compared with 14.35 yuan/kg. By February 26, the average profit per self - bred and self - fattened pig was - 160 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 206 yuan/head; the profit of fattening with purchased piglets was - 146 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 111 yuan/head [11]. - Futures: In February, the main contract 2605 of live pig futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price on the 27th was 11485 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 165 yuan/ton and a decline of 1.42% [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Long - term Supply: Sow Inventory - In February, during the Spring Festival holiday and with the lack of significant positive factors in the industry, the replenishment willingness of reserve farmers was low, and the overall trading was dull. According to Yongyi Consulting data, the average market price of 50KG binary sows in February was 1559 yuan/head, a slight increase of 2 yuan/head from the previous month [14]. - Sow inventory: According to national statistics, by the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million heads, a quarterly - on - quarter decrease of 740,000 heads (a decline of 1.83%) and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16 million heads (a decline of 2.9%), accounting for 101.6% of the normal reserve. From the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in October last year, the sow inventory decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and 2.1% year - on - year. From January to October last year, the inventory decreased by 0.4%, increased by 0.1%, decreased by 0.7%, remained flat, increased by 0.1%, remained flat from June to July, and decreased by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.1% from August to October. Year - on - year, from February to June last year, it increased by 0.6%, 1.2%, 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.1%, remained flat from July to August, and decreased by 0.7% and 2.1% from September to October. Theoretically, from March to May this year, the pig slaughter will be basically flat, and from June to August, it will decrease by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.1%. Year - on - year, from March to April this year, it will increase by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.1%, be basically flat from May to June, and decrease by 0.7% and 2.1% from July to August. According to Yongyi Information data, as of January this year, the sow inventory of sample farms was 1.1505 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.24%. The sow inventory of sample farms increased by 0.1%, 0.96%, 0.92%, 0.12%, 0.52%, and 0.07% from March to August last year, decreased by 0.84% and 0.8% from September to October, increased by 0.03% and 0.54% from November to December, and increased by 0.65% in January this year. Year - on - year, from March to December last year, it increased by 3%, 4.47%, 6.5%, 8.77%, 10.3%, 9.94%, 8.35%, 8.36%, 8.57%, 8.05%, 6.71%, 6.23%, 4.71%, 3.29%, 2.97%, and 2.22%, and increased by 2.24% in January this year. Theoretically, from March to June this year, the pig slaughter will increase by 0.9%, 0.1%, 0.5%, and 0.1% month - on - month, decrease by 0.8% and 0.8% from July to August, be basically flat in September, and increase by 0.5% and 0.7% from October to November; year - on - year, from March to November this year, it will increase by 8.6%, 8%, 6.7%, 6.2%, 4.7%, 3.3%, 3%, 2.2%, and 2.2% [15]. 3.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - Piglet price: In February, before the festival, the breeding side considered the high cost of replenishing piglets after the year, so they replenished in advance to reduce costs, and the demand for piglets was strong. After the festival, the replenishment of piglets became more cautious. Most of the northern market was on the sidelines, and a small part still replenished, but the volume was not large. The quotes in the southern region were generally stable, and the trading enthusiasm was not high. According to Yongyi Consulting monitoring, the average market sales price of weaned piglets in February was 364 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/head and a growth rate of 13%. As it is still the peak season for piglet replenishment, there is still room for piglet prices to rise [26]. - Piglet inventory: According to Yongyi Information data, as of January, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises was 2.368 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 4.67%. From August to October last year, the small pig inventory increased by 1.04%, 1.42%, and 0.94%, decreased by 0.89% and 1.3% from November to December, and continued to decline by 0.73% in January. Year - on - year, from August to December last year, it increased by 11.86%, 11.36%, 11.43%, 9.02%, and 6.35%, and increased by 4.67% in January. Theoretically, in the medium - term, assuming a 6 - month slaughter cycle, the pig slaughter will increase by 1.42% and 0.9% from March to April, and decrease by 0.9%, 1.3%, and 0.7% from May to July. Year - on - year, from March to July, it will increase by 11.9%, 11.4%, 11.4%, 9%, 6.4%, and 4.7% [26]. 3.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Pressure - barring and Second - fattening - Large pig inventory: According to Yongyi Information data, as of January, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises was 1.282 million heads, with a month - on - month growth rate of - 2.17%, and the month - on - month growth rate of large pig inventory in December last year was - 3.93%. Theoretically, in the short - term, the pig slaughter in February this year will decrease by 3.9% month - on - month, and by 2.2% in March. According to national statistics, by the end of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% and a quarterly - on - quarter decrease of 7.13 million heads (a decline of 1.63%). The quarterly - on - quarter growth rates in 2025 were - 2.4%, 1.7%, 2.9%, and - 1.63% [30]. - Pressure - barring and second - fattening: According to Ganglian data, in January, the proportion of large pigs over 140 kg in inventory was 1.53%, with a month - on - month growth rate of 1.43%. From November to January this year, the growth rates of the proportion of large pig inventory were 14.03%, 4.46%, and 1.43%. The significant increase in the inventory of 140 - kg pigs was mainly due to the Spring Festival stocking and the cold weather driving the terminal demand for pork, the good consumption of large pigs, and the delayed slaughter of second - fattening households after phased replenishment, which pushed up the proportion of fat pig inventory. In terms of second - fattening, according to Yongyi's tracking and research data, the average proportion of second - fattening sales from December to January this year was 1.4% and 2%. Before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm for second - fattening slaughter increased significantly, the slaughter rhythm accelerated, and the utilization rate of fattening pens dropped rapidly to a low level. As of mid - February, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 19.5%, a decrease of 11 percentage points from the previous ten - day period and 14.5 percentage points from the previous month, and an increase of 1 percentage point year - on - year. After the rapid slaughter of most pressure - barring and second - fattening pigs before the festival, the post - holiday pressure was reduced, but there were still some fat pigs to be slaughtered [30][31]. 3.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight - Slaughter volume: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in February was 22.92 million heads, a decrease of 17.73% from the actual completion in January. If calculated based on 21 days, the daily - average month - on - month growth rate was 21.44%. According to national statistics, in 2025, the live pig slaughter was 719.73 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 17.16 million heads and a growth rate of 2.4%. Among them, the national live pig slaughter in the first to fourth quarters was 194.76 million heads, 171.43 million heads, 163.73 million heads, and 189.81 million heads respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 0.1%, 1.2%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons and a growth rate of 4.1%, reaching a record high. Among them, the pork output in the first to fourth quarters was 16.02 million tons, 14.18 million tons, 13.48 million tons, and 15.7 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.2%, 1.4%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively [34][37]. - Slaughter weight: In February, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.1 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 kg and a decline of 1.17%, and an increase of 1.4 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs in February first decreased and then rebounded slightly, and the center of the month - on - month weight still moved down slightly. Firstly, during the Spring Festival in February, the weight decreased after farmers concentratedly slaughtered large pigs before the festival; secondly, the industry expected a weak market after the festival, and large - scale farms also had the intention to reduce the weight and slaughter in advance. In the second half of the month, the breeding side resumed sales after the holiday, and the pressure - barring live pigs during the Spring Festival were gradually put on the market, driving a small increase in the average slaughter weight of live pigs, but the overall increase was limited. In February, the proportion of small - weight pigs under 90 kg in the total slaughter was 4.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The epidemic was stable this month. Although there was a decrease in slaughter during the Spring Festival, which led to a partial increase in the average weight, and some second - fattening entered the market in some provinces, most of them were standard pigs, which had little impact on the proportion of small - weight pig slaughter. In February, the proportion of large - weight pigs over 150 kg in the total slaughter was 5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 percentage points. Before the Spring Festival, the demand for large pigs was good, the standard - to - fat price difference widened, and the slaughter increased. After the year, the inventory of large pigs decreased, and the overall proportion of slaughter decreased. In March, after the holiday, the price of fat pigs is temporarily high and the fat - to - standard price difference remains favorable. Farmers still have the sentiment of holding back sales at low prices, and combined with the restorative weight gain of live pigs in large - scale farms after the holiday, it is expected that the average slaughter weight of live pigs in March may increase slightly [38]. 3.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Import According to the announcement of the General Administration of Customs, the total pork import volume in December was 60,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons; in