猪价二次探底 后续如何看待？ ———— 杨蕊霞 投资咨询号：Z0011333 国投期货研究院 2026-2-27 一、供应施压，春节后生猪现货价格二次探底 春节过后，生猪现货价格二次探底。截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，涌益数据显 示全国生猪出栏均价 10.77 元/公斤，跌破 2025 年国庆后猪价首次探底的低点， 彼时 10 月 13 日生猪出栏均价最低达到 10.84 元/公斤。2025 年 10 月至 2026 年 2 月期间，生猪现货价格最高反弹至 13.3 元/公斤。 春节后猪价的二次探底，从供需两方面来看，一方面春节后猪肉消费需求处 于季节性的淡季，屠宰量处于低位；另一方面，上轮生猪产能回升周期在 2025 年 7/8 月左右见顶，由于能繁母猪至生猪出栏大约需要 10 个月左右时间。因此， 预计在 2026 年 5/6 月份之前，生猪出栏量仍处于惯性环比增加过程中，出栏压 力仍然在延续。 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 2025/10/1 2025/11/1 2025/12/1 2026/1/1 2026/2/1 生猪样本 ...

中国氨基酸与饲料原料应用研讨会 据博亚和讯监测，2026年2月26日全国外三元生猪均价为10.81元/kg，较昨日上涨0.06元/kg；仔猪均价 为25.42元/kg，较昨日下跌0.01元/kg；白条肉均价15.10元/kg，较昨日下跌0.15元/kg；今日猪料比为 3.24:1，较昨日增加0.02。 今日猪价震荡调整，全国均价微涨0.06元/kg。近期猪价持续下行，刺激散户抄底二次育肥行为增加， 同时前期下跌导致自繁自养亏损加剧，外购养殖仅维持微利，部分规模场选择缩量挺价、散户扛价情绪 升温，共同推动猪价企稳。短期来看，在情绪与二育入场支撑下，猪价下跌空间有限，预计将保持低位 震荡，同时南北价差将逐步收窄。今日市场情绪看稳、看涨并存，预计明日猪价稳中偏强调整，关注近 期二育入场情况。 会议聚焦 来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） | 神区 | 日前 | | 外三元生猪价格(元/kg) | | | 外三元.仔猪(元/kg.20kg体重) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2026年 | 2月25日 | 2月26日 | 趋势 | ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-26 低价出现惜售，出栏逐步恢复 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2605合约11465元/吨，较前交易日变动+200.00元/吨，幅度+1.78%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格11.00元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.03元/公斤，现货基差 LH05-465，较前交易日变动-230；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 11.08元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH05-385，较前交易日变动-330；四 川地区外三元生猪价格10.91元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差LH05-555，较前交易日变动-390。 据农业农村部监测，2月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为127.77，比昨天下降0.74个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为130.32，比昨天下降0.87个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.02元/公斤，比昨天下降0.7%；牛肉66.66 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.4%；羊肉65.93元/公斤，比昨天上升1.1%；鸡蛋7.78元/公斤，比昨天下降1.8%；白条鸡17.46 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%。 市 ...

当前自繁自养成本约 12 元/斤，放养公司代养成本约 6.2-6.3 元/斤，头 部企业断奶仔猪成本约 5.75 元/斤，行业平均水平 6-6.5 元/斤。高于此 水平则不建议继续从事该行业。 Q&A 春节前后生猪价格走势如何？有哪些因素影响了这一变化？ 春节前后的生猪价格走势呈现出较为复杂的波动趋势。根据我们的监测数据， 1 月份的均价预估为 13 元，但实际监测到的数据为 12.8 元。整个价格走势在 10 月中旬触底后，经历了多次波动，到 1 月中下旬达到高点 13.2 元。然而， 到目前（腊月十八），价格又回落至 12 元左右，有些公司统计的数据甚至跌 破了 12 元。 春节前后，市场供需关系对价格产生了显著影响。从供给端来看， 春节前屠宰量逐步增加，但整体需求并未如预期般强劲。例如，冬至当天屠宰 量达到 32.4 万头，而腊八时也仅恢复到 30 万头左右，并未突破冬至的屠宰量。 这表明尽管有季节性需求高峰，但整体消费并不如预期理想。 从需求端来看， 根据官方数据，2025 年家庭人均猪肉消费较 2024 年下降了 5%以上，这反映 出经济环境对消费能力的抑制。此外，餐饮业表现不佳，也进一步压制了猪肉 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 1 日 生猪：旺季需求不及预期，抛压将加速 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（1.26-2.1） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 27.35 元/公斤（上周 27.35 元/公斤），本周河 南生猪价格 12.68 元/公斤（上周 13.28 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1559 元/头（上周 1559 元/ 头）。供应端，集团企业增量出栏，南北方散户仍有惜售情绪，出栏意愿增量；需求端，下游屠宰旺季亏 损，旺季虽至，宰量缓慢增量。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.33KG（上周 124.5KG）， 出栏均重环比下降 0.14%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2603 合约最高价为 11530 元/吨，最低价为 11150 元/吨，收盘价为 11220 元/吨（上周同期 11565 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2603 合约基差为 1460 ...

国家生猪大数据生猪合作专题 国家生猪大数据中心 X 西南期货有限公司 生猪2025年四季度数据解读与2026年一季度展 望 一、能繁母猪存栏量（12 月 3961 万头，同比-2.87%） 解读：根据统计局和农业农村部联合发布的全国能繁母猪存栏量 显示，2025 年四季度能繁母猪存栏量呈 "高位下降" 态势，产能 去化节奏加快，受全行业亏损压力及政策强力推动，截至 12 月底， 能繁母猪存栏 3961 万头，同比降减 2.87%。距离正常保有量上限（3900 万头）高出 1.56%，整体降幅略低于此前的市场预期（至 2026 年 1 月前调减 100 万头母猪至 3950 万头左右）。值得注意的是，近年规 模场通过更新原种提升繁育效率，能繁母猪 MSY（每头母猪每年提供 育肥猪出栏数）持续增长，因此就 2025 年四季度能繁母猪存栏量同 比下降 2.6%的变化而言，其对应的 2026 年三季度商品猪出栏量，或 反而出现同比增长（MSY 同比增长幅度高于能繁母猪存栏量的同比降 减幅度）。 展望：短期来看，2026 年一季度能繁母猪存栏或延续环比下滑 趋势，但降减幅度收敛。一方面，当前肥猪与仔猪仍处于亏损区间， ...

生猪：如何看待春节前后猪价 20260125 摘要 春节后生猪供给压力缓解，价格预计在 5.5-6 元/公斤区间波动，二次育 肥推迟出栏时间是主因，但整体消费疲软态势未变。 产能去化缓慢，疫情和亏损是关键因素。当前仔猪成本虽有下降，但规 模厂仍能维持运营，去产能条件尚不充分，未来或面临重大疾病风险。 部分养殖企业通过养大猪替代小型养殖户的市场需求，尤其在冬季消费 旺季，满足特定地区对大体重猪的需求。 2026 年生猪出栏量预计增加 5%，主要为商品猪出栏增加，部分中小企 业逆势扩张是主因，大型企业产能调控效果有限。 原料价格存在不确定性，玉米和豆粕等饲料原料价格可能反弹，将对依 赖低价原料的养殖业造成成本压力。 仔猪数量在 2026 年 10 月达到顶峰后小幅下降，预计 2027 年 3 月或 4 月仔猪现货价格触底，未来供应量或将减少。 屠宰场盈利困难，龙头企业通过低价策略和养殖端补贴占据市场份额， 中小屠宰场难以竞争，行业洗牌或将加速。 Q&A 近期生猪价格走势如何？春节前后的价格预期是什么？ 近期生猪价格大致维持在 13 元/公斤左右，并出现震荡。春节前一周，由于消 费高峰尚未到来，预计价格将偏弱，可能 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be range - bound as consumption recovers and supply remains relatively abundant. The 03 futures contract is likely to trend weakly due to expected slight increase in supply, high second - fattening pressure, seasonal sporadic outbreaks of the epidemic, and the post - holiday consumption off - season [7] Content Summaries by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 19th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downwards after a short rise, closing in the red. The highest price was 12,140 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,705 yuan/ton, down 2.09% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 278 lots to 356,946 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 19th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.30 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: The enthusiasm for second - fattening before New Year's Day increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is currently higher than the same period last year, waiting to be gradually slaughtered. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. The northern breeding side is slaughtering as normal, while the southern side is controlling the volume to raise prices, and the overall slaughter weight has not changed much [7] - **Demand Side**: Second - fattening is mainly on the sidelines. The demand for curing and sausage - making is near the end, terminal consumer consumption has increased slightly, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, with the operating rate and slaughter volume slightly increasing. On January 19th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 191,500, down 1,000 from the previous day, up 2,600 week - on - week, and down 16,000 month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 15th, the average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market was 425 yuan/head, up 62 yuan/head from the previous week [8] 3. Data Overview - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 15th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.15 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week. The expected cost of fattening with purchased piglets was 12.24 yuan/kg, up 0.49 yuan/kg week - on - week. The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was +25.8 yuan/head, up 25.8 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 100.5 yuan/head, up 29.3 yuan/head week - on - week [16] - **Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of January 15th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.85 kg, up 0.31 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week increase of 0.24%), down 1.33 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%), and up 5.89 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 4.79%) [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot market for live pigs showed a strong - running trend, with prices of 20KG piglets in Henan at 23.2 yuan/kg, live pigs in Henan at 13.18 yuan/kg, and 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1559 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to the non -放量 of group enterprises and strong reluctance to sell among northern and southern retail farmers. The demand side saw stable slaughter volume despite losses during the peak slaughter season. The average national slaughter weight was 124.58KG, a 0.16% increase from last week. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the LH2603 contract closing at 11980 yuan/ton, and the basis at 1080 yuan/ton [1]. - Next week (1.19 - 1.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Since late December, the enthusiasm for slaughter among enterprises and the social side has been insufficient, and secondary fattening has re - entered the market, starting social inventory accumulation. However, the downstream white - strip market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the slaughter end is in the red. From the supply perspective, standard pig supply will continue to increase until April 2026, but due to strong market expectations and multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, the inventory supply pressure has not been effectively released. From the demand perspective, the late Spring Festival and strong pre - holiday peak - season expectations have led to pre - emptive speculative demand in January. Overall, inventory accumulation continues in mid - and early January, and the weight - reduction plan is postponed, indicating that the social side has not relieved the pressure, and a stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is awaited [2]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11980 yuan/ton on January 16. In mid - and early January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, the weight increased, secondary fattening entered the market, and inventory accumulation restarted. The downstream losses during the peak season significantly inhibited the increase in slaughter volume. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is approaching. Wait for the spot market on the Laba Festival for confirmation. If the weight reduction at the end of the month fails to meet expectations, pay attention to the trading of post - holiday off - season expectations and set stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week's basis was 1080 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.58KG (last week: 124.38KG). In November, pork production was 546 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease; pork imports were 6.05 million tons, a 14.16% month - on - month decrease [10]. 3.3 Demand No specific demand - related summary content other than the description in the market outlook section.

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn futures for March reached a peak of 2300 CNY/ton, but the overall trend remains weak [4] - On January 12, the China National Grain Reserves Corporation's Jilin branch auctioned nearly 30,000 tons of corn, all sold at a premium. However, on January 15, only 20% of the 16,000 tons auctioned were sold, indicating a significant drop in transaction rate [4] - The Jilin branch plans to auction 71,000 tons on January 16, suggesting that market sentiment is still waiting to be released ahead of the Spring Festival [4] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - The U.S. biofuel policy has released positive signals, leading to a surge in U.S. soybean oil prices, which in turn boosted soybean prices. However, the supply side of U.S. soybeans is unlikely to provide new positive drivers, shifting focus to demand changes and South American production [19] - As of January 14, 93.9% of Argentina's soybean planting is complete, with a quality rate of 61%, a decrease of 4 percentage points week-on-week. The Buenos Aires province's early soybeans are entering a critical growth stage, requiring soil moisture to maintain yield potential [19] - Recent active trading in imported soybeans and forward soybean meal contracts reflects increased replenishment willingness due to falling meal prices, indicating a structural tightness in the market despite overall ample supply [19] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price of eggs in major production areas continues to rise, with the average price in Hebei's Guantao at approximately 3.33 CNY/jin, an increase of 0.09 CNY/jin from the previous day [21] - The strong spot price trend is driving near-month contracts higher, but uncertainties remain around the market dynamics before and after the Spring Festival [21] - The expected decline in stock levels is projected to continue into Q1 2026, with an anticipated drop to approximately 1.299 billion birds by April 2026 [21] Group 4: Live Pig Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 12.74 CNY/kg, with stable spot performance and near-month contracts recovering from previous discounts [23] - Data indicates a 0.36% month-on-month increase in breeding stock, while fattening stock decreased by 5.2% [23] - Market sentiment is improving as spot prices rise, with some optimistic producers showing reluctance to sell, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [23]