Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The A-share market weakened, and the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase to support the Spring Festival cross - season funds, leading to the overall rise of treasury bond futures [8] - The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with the decline of long - term active bonds within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.807%, down 0.6bp [9] - The inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose. The supply pressure of local bonds remained high this week, and attention was paid to the central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival. The net open - market reverse repurchase was 6.45 billion yuan, and the inter - bank capital sentiment index declined [10] - Currently, the fundamental performance is weak, but the structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's loose expectation is not strong. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing market concerns. However, the current 1.82% yield of 10 - year treasury bonds does not price in the possible future easing space, and there is allocation demand support at the beginning of the year. With the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the liquidity, the upward space of interest rates should be limited. In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range [11] - Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively support the cross - season funds, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, with a relatively warm market environment. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will rise. Although the cash return will supplement the liquidity, the central bank usually conducts net capital withdrawal, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important March meetings and policies, and long - term bonds may be more favorable [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares weakened, and treasury bond futures rose across the board due to the central bank's actions. The yields of interest rate bonds declined, and the inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market is in a multi - empty intertwined environment in February, with limited upward space for interest rates and a likely continuation of range - bound fluctuations. Before and after the Spring Festival, the market environment and bond performance may vary [11][12] 2. Industry News - National leaders had important communications, including President Xi Jinping's phone call with the US President and video meeting with the Russian President [13] - The People's Bank of China held a 2026 credit market working meeting, emphasizing financial services in various fields and debt risk resolution [13] - The Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China organized a financial situation analysis meeting in Shanghai, putting forward requirements for credit growth, policy implementation, etc. [14] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development mentioned housing security for young people and support for multi - child families [14] - In January, the transaction volume of second - hand housing in 20 cities was 118,000 units, showing a slight month - on - month decline of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, but with prominent structural contradictions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including prices, trading volume, and positions of various treasury bond futures contracts on February 5 were provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, and other money market indicators was presented, but specific data details were not elaborated in the text [23][28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves was given [34]