Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2606 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" because the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Due to the long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis and the central bank's preference for structural interest rate cuts, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, putting pressure on Treasury bond futures. However, due to slow consumption and investment growth and low price levels, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoints Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "weak", and the view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures had a small oscillatory callback yesterday. The long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis may restrict the global central bank's loose policy. The central bank prefers structural interest rate cuts, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. However, slow consumption and investment growth and low price levels mean that the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - year Treasury bond will continue to maintain a low - interest - rate, narrow - range, and high - volatility state, with a potential stage high of around 1.9%. After the Spring Festival, the market may start to speculate on macro - policy expectations, economic fundamentals, and risk preferences, which will amplify market fluctuations [4]. - The macro - economy in early 2026 continues to recover weakly, and the yield central tendency is difficult to rise significantly. The credit "good start" may be lackluster, and the impact on bond market expectations is controllable. There may be a stage upward trend at some points [4][16]. - Monetary policy will continue a moderately loose tone, and the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in the short term is low. The central bank may focus more on structural policy tools [4][20]. - Liquidity is likely to remain balanced and slightly loose, and its impact on yield fluctuations is controllable. The central bank will ensure smooth cross - festival funds [4][21]. - Risk appetite has decreased, and the suppression of the bond market has weakened. Although the investment cost - performance of bonds compared to stocks is not prominent, the gap between stock and bond yields has converged to some extent [4][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1 - month Hot - spot Review - On January 15, the central bank announced and launched eight structural monetary and financial policy measures, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, which helps banks increase credit to key areas and weak links, but has a limited impact on reducing bank funding costs. As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of the central bank's structural monetary policy tools was 5.9 trillion yuan. A full 25 - BP interest rate cut is expected to reduce bank funding costs by about 15 billion yuan per year, which is only about 0.4 basis points compared to the total liabilities of domestic commercial banks at the end of 2025 [5]. - The structural monetary policy tools have been expanded and increased in volume, with an additional 50 billion yuan in re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses, 40 billion yuan in re - loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and a new 1 - trillion - yuan re - loan for private enterprises. However, the policy effect transmission is restricted, and the actual effectiveness needs further release [5]. - The re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses and the rediscount quota are combined for use, and the risk - sharing tools for scientific and technological innovation and private enterprise bonds are merged [5]. - The scope of support for structural monetary policy tools is broadened, including high - R & D private SMEs in the support area of re - loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and extending the coverage of carbon - emission reduction, service - consumption, and pension re - loans, which helps economic structural transformation and upgrading [5]. 3.2 1 - month Interest Rate Operation Review 3.2.1 Funds and Liquidity Monitoring - In January, the central bank increased the net investment of funds in the open market, with a net investment of 1.0678 trillion yuan, mainly in medium - and long - term funds. The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 3.22 billion yuan in pledged reverse repurchases, and increased the net investment of 30 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases and 70 billion yuan in MLF. The central bank also net - bought 10 billion yuan of Treasury bonds in the open market, with the highest value since October last year [8]. - Thanks to the large - scale investment of funds by the central bank, the fund interest rates were relatively stable, and the central tendency rose slightly. DR001 and R001 basically ran smoothly within 1.4% and 1.5%, with central tendencies of 1.34% and 1.41% respectively, up 5.54BP and 4.68BP from the previous month. The central tendency of the spread between DR007 and R007 narrowed by 4BP from the previous month, and the non - bank fund pressure was not large [9]. 3.2.2 Interest - rate Bond Yield Review - In January, the long - and short - end yields of interest - rate bonds were differentiated, and those above 5Y generally declined. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, it rose to 1.9% due to the strengthening of the equity market. After reaching the stage high, the market allocation willingness increased, and the bond market yield entered the downward stage. At the end of the month, it closed at 1.81%, down 3.61BP from the end of the previous month, but the central tendency rose slightly by 0.28BP to 1.85% [11]. - The term spread between the 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, and on January 30, it was 51.13BP, basically the same as at the end of the previous month. The trading volume of interest - rate bonds in January increased by 3.34% to 22.71 trillion yuan compared to the previous month, among which the trading volumes of Treasury bonds and local bonds decreased by 0.97% and 25.64% to 9.46 trillion yuan and 1.47 trillion yuan respectively, while the trading volume of policy - financial bonds increased by 12.79% to 11.77 trillion yuan [11]. 3.3 Outlook 3.3.1 The macro - economy in early 2026 continues to recover weakly, and the yield central tendency is difficult to rise significantly - Affected by factors such as the early Spring Festival holiday, cold snap, and overdraft effect, the manufacturing PMI in January fell below the boom - bust line again. The CPI decreased marginally year - on - year due to the Spring Festival misalignment, and the PPI increased positively for four consecutive months, but the upstream - downstream differentiation still existed. The macro - economy continued to recover weakly, and the credit "good start" might be lackluster. There may be a stage upward trend at some points [16]. 3.3.2 Monetary policy will continue a moderately loose tone, and the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in the short term is low - The central bank's vice - governor said in January that there is still room for a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in 2026. The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is in line with the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference. The central bank may focus more on structural policy tools, and the impact of monetary policy on yield in the short term may be limited [20]. 3.3.3 Liquidity is likely to remain balanced and slightly loose, and its impact on yield fluctuations is controllable - Affected by factors such as Spring Festival cash withdrawals, tax payments, and concentrated government bond issuances, the fund gap pressure in February is large. The central bank is expected to increase fund investment at special times. Historically, the central bank has generally provided strong liquidity support during the Spring Festival. In the short term, liquidity will remain balanced and slightly loose, and the fund interest rate will generally fluctuate around the policy interest rate [21]. 3.3.4 Risk appetite has decreased, and the suppression of the bond market has weakened - According to the central bank's fourth - quarter 2025 urban depositor survey, the proportion of residents inclined to "more savings" reached 62.9%, maintaining a high level. The proportion of residents inclined to "more investment" decreased. The outflow of residents' deposits to the stock market is moderate, and it is difficult to have a large - scale deposit transfer in the short term. Although the investment cost - performance of bonds compared to stocks is not prominent, the gap between stock and bond yields has converged to some extent, and the suppression of the bond market has weakened [25].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China released January financial statistics, indicating a stable growth in credit and social financing, reflecting a supportive monetary policy environment for the beginning of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion [1]. - The new social financing scale reached 7.22 trillion, an increase of 1,662 billion compared to the same period last year [1]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 9.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate acceleration of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. Group 2: Economic Insights - Despite a year-on-year decrease in new RMB loans, the demand side shows signs of recovery, with a credit growth rate of 6.1%, surpassing nominal economic growth [1]. - The increase in social financing reflects a high level of support from the monetary policy, contributing to a stable economic start for the year [1][2]. - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that January is a traditional peak month for credit, with early project releases and significant infrastructure loan approvals contributing to the high loan volume [1][2]. Group 3: Consumer and Business Loan Trends - Household loans increased by 456.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 127 billion, supported by pre-holiday consumption [4]. - Short-term loans for residents rose by 109.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1,594 billion, while medium to long-term loans increased by 346.9 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1,466 billion [4]. - The demand for personal loans was boosted by seasonal consumption trends and marketing efforts, with policies optimizing personal consumption and business loans [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall data for new credit and social financing in January appears stable, with expectations for a potential opening of a window for interest rate cuts in the second quarter [5]. - Factors such as increased bond financing, local government debt replacement, and weak credit demand from businesses and households may keep new loan levels moderate in 2026 [5]. - Social financing is expected to maintain a significant year-on-year increase, serving as a key indicator of financial support for the real economy [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the "Five Major Articles" loans have surpassed 100 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of total loans, and continue to maintain a high growth rate, indicating a significant focus on this area for future credit [5][11] - New loan interest rates have seen a significant narrowing in year-on-year declines, with expectations of continued monetary easing, although comprehensive interest rate cuts will be approached with caution, suggesting that structural interest rate cuts may become the norm [5][18] Summary by Sections Section 1: "Five Major Articles" Credit Scale - The total balance of "Five Major Articles" loans reached 108.8 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.9%, representing 39% of the total loan scale [11] - Traditional industries still dominate corporate loans, but their share is gradually declining, with real estate and infrastructure loans together accounting for over 50% of corporate loans as of Q4 2025 [11] - Technology loans are experiencing high growth, with small and medium-sized technology enterprises' loans at 3.6 trillion yuan, representing 1.9% of corporate loans, and high-tech enterprise loans growing at 19.1% year-on-year [11] - Green loans also show high growth, with a balance of 44.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, making up 24% of corporate loans [11] Section 2: New Loan Interest Rates - As of December 2025, the new loan interest rates for general loans, personal housing loans, and corporate loans were 3.55%, 3.06%, and 3.10%, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 27 basis points, 3 basis points, and 24 basis points [16] - The report indicates that the decline in new loan interest rates has narrowed significantly, with personal housing loan rates remaining stable for three consecutive quarters [16][18] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," emphasizing the stability and sustainability of the sector [20] - Two main investment lines are recommended: focusing on city and rural commercial banks with regional advantages and strong certainty, and large banks with high dividend yields [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors in February and may continue to fluctuate within a range. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively protect the cross - festival capital, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, with a relatively warm market environment. After the festival, the supply pressure will rise, and the market may focus on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, with long - term bonds being more favorable. In the last trading week before the festival, trading is expected to fade, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Due to stable pre - holiday funds and strong institutional allocation demand, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly, with the decline of long - term active bonds within 1bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.799%, down 0.3bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The inter - bank funding market was stable and loose. The supply of local bonds decreased significantly this week. The central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival were worth attention. The net investment in reverse repurchase in the open market was 3.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index continued to decline. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.27%, the 7 - day funding rate rose 7.7bp to around 1.54%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [10] - **Conclusion**: Although the current fundamentals are weak, structural interest rate cuts have been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's loose expectations are not strong. In addition, the planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, which causes market concerns. However, the current 1.82% yield of the 10 - year treasury bond does not price in the possible future loose space. With the support of allocation demand at the beginning of the year and the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the capital, the upward space of interest rates should be limited [11] 3.2 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting studied policies and measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policies and measures, and making good use of funds such as central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new policy - based financial instruments. Major projects and works in key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, emerging industries, and future industries should be planned and promoted [13] - Premier Li Qiang chaired the tenth plenary meeting of the State Council, discussing the draft government work report and the draft outline of the 15th Five - Year Plan. Li Qiang pointed out that macro - policies should be implemented in advance, and fiscal funds should be arranged as early as possible. It is necessary to closely track the changes in the situation, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and make policy pre - research and reserves, and introduce policies in a timely manner as needed [13] - Eight departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued a document, clarifying that virtual currency - related business activities are illegal financial activities and are strictly prohibited in China. No domestic or foreign unit or individual may issue stablecoins linked to the RMB overseas without permission. Domestic entities and their controlled overseas entities may not issue virtual currencies overseas. Activities related to the tokenization of real - world assets in China are prohibited. Without permission or filing, no unit or individual may conduct tokenization business of real - world assets overseas [13] - According to data from the China Index Academy, in January, a total of 118,000 second - hand residential units were traded in 20 cities, a slight month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. The overall market transaction maintained a certain level of activity, but the current market structural contradictions are still prominent, and the differentiation between first - hand and second - hand housing is obvious [14] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months. As of the end of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was 3.3991 trillion US dollars, an increase of 41.2 billion US dollars or 1.23% from the end of December 2025. The gold reserve scale was 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on the trading of treasury bond futures on February 9, including the opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change of various contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report shows the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The A-share market weakened, and the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase to support the Spring Festival cross - season funds, leading to the overall rise of treasury bond futures [8] - The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with the decline of long - term active bonds within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.807%, down 0.6bp [9] - The inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose. The supply pressure of local bonds remained high this week, and attention was paid to the central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival. The net open - market reverse repurchase was 6.45 billion yuan, and the inter - bank capital sentiment index declined [10] - Currently, the fundamental performance is weak, but the structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's loose expectation is not strong. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing market concerns. However, the current 1.82% yield of 10 - year treasury bonds does not price in the possible future easing space, and there is allocation demand support at the beginning of the year. With the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the liquidity, the upward space of interest rates should be limited. In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range [11] - Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively support the cross - season funds, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, with a relatively warm market environment. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will rise. Although the cash return will supplement the liquidity, the central bank usually conducts net capital withdrawal, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important March meetings and policies, and long - term bonds may be more favorable [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares weakened, and treasury bond futures rose across the board due to the central bank's actions. The yields of interest rate bonds declined, and the inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market is in a multi - empty intertwined environment in February, with limited upward space for interest rates and a likely continuation of range - bound fluctuations. Before and after the Spring Festival, the market environment and bond performance may vary [11][12] 2. Industry News - National leaders had important communications, including President Xi Jinping's phone call with the US President and video meeting with the Russian President [13] - The People's Bank of China held a 2026 credit market working meeting, emphasizing financial services in various fields and debt risk resolution [13] - The Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China organized a financial situation analysis meeting in Shanghai, putting forward requirements for credit growth, policy implementation, etc. [14] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development mentioned housing security for young people and support for multi - child families [14] - In January, the transaction volume of second - hand housing in 20 cities was 118,000 units, showing a slight month - on - month decline of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, but with prominent structural contradictions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including prices, trading volume, and positions of various treasury bond futures contracts on February 5 were provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, and other money market indicators was presented, but specific data details were not elaborated in the text [23][28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves was given [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental performance is weak, but the structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low. Market expectations for easing are not strong. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing concerns about supply pressure. However, the current 1.82% yield of the 10 - year treasury bond does not price in the possible easing space in the later period. There is support from allocation demand at the beginning of the year, and the central bank is actively maintaining the capital market, so the upward space of interest rates should be limited. In February, the bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors and may continue to fluctuate within a range. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively maintain the cross - festival capital market, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, so the market environment is relatively warm. After the festival, the supply pressure will rise. Although the cash return will supplement the liquidity, the central bank usually conducts net capital withdrawal after the festival, which may be unfavorable to short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, and long - term bonds may be more advantageous [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The central bank announced that the net purchase scale of treasury bonds in January was 100 billion yuan, double that of January but not large, which had limited positive impact on the bond market. In the afternoon, the A - share market rose and recovered, suppressing the bond market again, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board [8] - **Interest Rate Spot Bonds**: The yields of major - term interest rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market changed slightly. The change of long - term active bonds was less than 1bp. As of 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.812%, up 0.1bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The inter - bank funding market was stable and loose. The supply pressure of local bonds this week was still high. Attention should be paid to the central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open - market today was 20.25 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.32%, the 7 - day funding rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.5%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [10] 3.2 Industry News - The central bank will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation on February 4, with an additional 100 billion yuan for roll - over, the first additional roll - over in nearly four months. The central bank also disclosed that the net investment in treasury bond trading in the open - market in January was 100 billion yuan [13] - The Party Committee of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasized the development of strategic emerging industries and future industries, and promoted the development of strategic emerging industries, future industries and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries of central enterprises [13] - 30 provinces have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026. Many large economic provinces have set the target above 5%. Shanghai proposed a GDP growth target of about 5% in 2026 and plans to implement major industrial projects in fields such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [13] - Fujian Province introduced a package of measures to stabilize the real - estate market, including exploring the acquisition of existing commercial housing to promote inventory reduction, providing housing purchase subsidies, and optimizing the housing - set recognition standard and housing provident fund loan policies for multi - child families [13] - The US White House said that talks with Iran later this week will still be carried out as planned. Iran hopes to move the talks from Istanbul, Turkey to Oman and hold them in a bilateral form, but has not responded yet [14] - US President Trump signed a government appropriation bill to end the partial government "shutdown" [14] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy should remain cautious before inflation fully returns to the target to ensure the stability of the labor market [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on February 4, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and position difference [6] - **Money Market**: The report shows data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report presents data on the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market risk appetite was negatively impacted by rising geopolitical tensions, the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chair nomination, and the dense disclosure of financial reports from China and the US, leading to significant adjustments in precious metals and equity markets [1] - On February 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded, with IC and IM both rising over 2%, while IF and IH saw intraday increases of over 1% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In January, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% from 50.1%, and the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.4% from 50.2%, both dropping below the expansion threshold, attributed to the approaching Spring Festival [1] - The decline in PMI for labor-intensive industries indicates a weakening production side, with significant drops in consumer goods and high-energy industries' PMIs, down 2.1 and 1 percentage points to 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively [1] - The new orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, and the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, with construction activity notably affected by seasonal factors [1] Group 3: Policy Measures - The government has been actively implementing policies to address insufficient domestic demand, including structural interest rate cuts and targeted financial tools to lower financing costs for key sectors [2] - A comprehensive consumer promotion policy system has been established, focusing on "two new" policies, with an initial fund of 62.5 billion yuan already in place to stimulate the market through subsidies and interest discounts [2] - The removal of restrictions on service industry access is expected to optimize the consumption supply structure, contributing to economic stability [2] Group 4: International Economic Context - In December, the US CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.6%, indicating persistent inflation, while non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 180,000 [3] - The US unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.4%, with the economy showing support from a revised GDP growth rate of 4.4% for Q3, the fastest since 2021 [3] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in January, maintaining rates at 5.25% to 5.5%, with market expectations for the first rate cut pushed to June [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a situation of mixed long and short factors in February and may continue to fluctuate within a range. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively protect the cross - festival capital, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, with a relatively warm market environment. After the festival, the supply pressure will rise, and the central bank generally conducts net capital withdrawal, which may be unfavorable to short - term bonds. The market is more likely to play games based on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, and long - term bonds may be more advantageous [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Conditions**: The stock market recovered, but the sentiment in the bond market was still okay. Treasury bond futures opened lower and then fluctuated and recovered, with most closing slightly higher. The yields of major - term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market changed within a narrow range, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 dropped by 0.4bp to 1.8110% by 16:30 [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The supply pressure of local bonds remains high this week. The central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival should be noted. The net repurchase of open - market reverse repurchase was 296.5 billion yuan today. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined. The DR overnight rate in the inter - bank deposit market dropped by about 5bp to 1.32%, the 7 - day capital interest rate fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.5%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.6% [10] - **Conclusion**: Although the current fundamental performance is weak, the structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's loose expectation is not strong. In addition, the planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, and the large supply pressure worries the market. However, the current 1.82% yield level of the 10 - year treasury bond does not price in the possible future easing space. There is also support from allocation demand at the beginning of the year, and the central bank's current attitude of protecting the capital is relatively positive, so the upward space of interest rates should be limited [11] 3.2 Industry News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council approved the "Spatial Coordination Plan for the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area (2023 - 2035)", aiming to build a world - class metropolitan area with the capital as the core and a leading area for demonstrating Chinese - style modernization, and support the construction of the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei world - class urban agglomeration [13] - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council conducted research in Shandong on February 2. He emphasized the need to combine short - and long - term goals, start well at the beginning, implement policies in advance, and effectively promote development, benefit the people, and enhance the development potential. Intelligent manufacturing is the main direction for promoting industrial technological transformation and upgrading, and artificial intelligence technology should be actively used to reshape the entire production and manufacturing chain and cycle [13] - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce launched the 2026 "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" special event, covering six aspects: "good food", "good accommodation", "good travel", "good tourism", "good shopping", and "good entertainment". The event will be held from February 15 to 23 during the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, aiming to create a full - scale and people - enjoyed Spring Festival consumption feast [13] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the "Interim Measures for the Deduction of Input Tax on Long - term Assets", which came into effect on January 1, 2026. They also issued the "Administrative Measures for the Advance Payment of Value - Added Tax" and the "Announcement on Matters Concerning the Deduction of Input Tax on Value - Added Tax", which also came into effect on January 1, 2026 [13] - Shanghai launched the work of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing, with Pudong New Area, Jing'an District, and Xuhui District as the first - batch pilot areas. The first - batch of housing to be purchased will focus on features such as suitable room types, reasonable layout, mature supporting facilities, and convenient transportation, aiming to accurately meet the "job - housing balance" needs of talents in various fields [14] - The second - hand housing market in many key cities recovered in January. In Beijing and Shanghai, 15,000 and 23,000 second - hand housing units were sold respectively, with year - on - year increases of over 20%. In Shenzhen, 5,000 units were sold, with a month - on - month increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. The sales volume in Hangzhou also increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. Affected by factors such as the market supply rhythm, the new housing market in key cities was relatively dull [14] - The U.S. Treasury Department lowered its estimate of the federal borrowing scale for this quarter. The main reason was the higher cash balance at the beginning of the quarter, which was partially offset by the expected lower net cash flow. The Treasury Department stated in a statement on Monday that it currently expects the net borrowing from January to March to be $574 billion, lower than the $578 billion estimated in November last year. This estimate assumes a cash balance of $85 billion at the end of March, consistent with previous quarters. For April to June, the U.S. Treasury Department expects to borrow $109 billion, aiming for a cash balance of $90 billion at the end of June [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on February 3, including contract information such as TL2603, TL2606, etc., covering pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Other Data**: The report also mentions data on the term structure and trend of SHIBOR, the weighted interest rate change of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the interest rate swap fixing curve of Shibor3M and FR007, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [28][32][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of structural monetary policy tools in supporting high-quality economic development in China, suggesting that targeted measures like structural "rate cuts" are more suitable than traditional interest rate cuts given the current economic conditions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced incremental policy measures to support the real economy, focusing on structural "rate cuts" and the expansion of targeted tools to lower financing costs for key sectors [3]. - Structural monetary policy tools are designed to guide financial institutions' credit allocation, providing incentives for banks to increase lending to specific sectors, thereby reducing financing costs for enterprises [4]. - The PBOC has established a 1 trillion yuan quota for re-lending to support private small and micro enterprises, and increased the quota for technology innovation and green transformation re-lending by 400 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. Group 2: Economic Challenges and Policy Integration - The article highlights ongoing economic challenges in China, indicating that structural policies are essential for promoting economic adjustment and enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal policies [5]. - The PBOC's approach of providing low-cost funds to commercial banks is fundamentally different from merely guiding market interest rates down, as it directly incentivizes banks to support the real economy [5]. - The effectiveness of structural monetary policy tools in transmitting rate cuts to end-user rates largely depends on market supply and demand dynamics, emphasizing the indirect nature of monetary policy [5][6]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The article suggests that while there is still room for both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate cuts, the timing should be aligned with more favorable economic conditions [6]. - The PBOC's toolbox for monetary policy is becoming increasingly diverse, allowing for more effective management of short-term market fluctuations, with a preference for gradual adjustments [6].