转自：智通财经 【智通财经C50风向指数调查：MLF与买断式逆回购或延续小额净投放 财政重心从总量加码向结构增效 转型 】智通财经1月8日电，新一期联社"C50风向指数"结果显示，尽管受政府债缴款、信贷投放、春节 取现等因素影响，1月流动性或有承压，但在央行呵护下，1月银行间流动性仍有望维持相对宽松。在20 家参与调查的市场机构中，3家认为基本不存在流动性缺口；15家认为资金整体压力不大，1月流动性缺 口或万亿元附近；仅2家认为中性趋紧，流动性缺口超过2万亿元规模。展望2026年政策工具的具体运 用，多家市场机构人士预判，一季度的宽松路径或是降准和结构性降息，2026年买断式逆回购和MLF 有望延续小额净投放，财政重心将从总量加码向结构增效转型，央行宽松的节奏或主要配合财政发力。 （智通财经记者 夏淑媛） ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 482.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 415 billion yuan after 67.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - In the previous week, the net withdrawal from 7-day reverse repos was 34.8 billion yuan, while the PBOC conducted a 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of 400 billion yuan, exceeding the previous amount by 100 billion yuan [1] - The average rate of DR001 is expected to drop below 1.3% for the month, indicating a continued loose monetary environment despite potential year-end disturbances [2] Group 2 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for continued moderate easing and enhanced counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3] - Analysts predict that the first quarter of 2026 will see a path of easing through reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions, with a potential RRR cut of 50 basis points releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The focus of monetary policy will shift towards ensuring the smooth transmission of interest rates and adjusting the relationships between various asset rates, aiming for an overall moderate easing goal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the monetary policy in the first quarter will focus on reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions to support economic growth and liquidity [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The fiscal policy will be proactive, with monetary policy actively coordinating to support it, including a potential 50 basis points (BP) RRR cut, which could release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [1] - Structural interest rate cuts are seen as a more effective approach, with the central bank likely to target specific monetary policy tools to lower rates in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - A comprehensive interest rate cut will depend on external and internal stability, with the potential for 1-2 rate cuts throughout the year, totaling a reduction of 10-20 BP, which would influence the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and subsequently affect loan and deposit rates [1]

1、不同风险利率的比价关系。即风险溢价需保持在合理水平，企业融资利率不应低于国债收益率。因 此存款利率和贷款利率进一步下行的空间被约束； 2、商业银行资产端利率和负债端利率的关系，保持银行合理净息差，需要商业银行资产端和负债端利 率保持更为合理的比价； 3、不同类型资产收益率的关系。这意味着存款利率和债券收益率需要保持合理利差。 货币政策展望：一季度的宽松路径将是降准和结构性降息。 【大河财立方消息】12月25日，银河证券研报称，12月18日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年 第四季度例会。货币政策表述延续中央经济工作会议的定调，但没有明确提及"灵活高效运用降准降 息"。 本次会议最值得关注的重要变化：社会综合融资成本进一步下行面临利率比价的束缚。从"推动社会综 合融资成本下降"转变为"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，表明在目前社会综合融资成本已处于"低 位"的背景下，继续推动其进一步下行面临利率比价的约束。 央行货币调控的中间变量将从"数量型和价格型调控并行"逐步转向"以价格型调控为主"，以价格调控为 主，关键在于畅通市场化利率形成和传导机制，而如果希望畅通市场化利率形成和传导机制，就必须保 持合理 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 在中央经济工作会议"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量" 的要求下，市场预期 2026 年政府债净供给规模将在 2025年高基数的背景 下，延续同比提升的趋势，尤其是超长政府债的净供给规模，可能将由今 年的 6.4 万亿元，进一步提升至 6.5-7.2 万亿元。银行、保险等配置盘，或 分别受制于利率风险指标、增量保险收入的等约束，理论上无法顺利承接 庞大的超长端供给。因此，市场在 11-15 日自发对此逻辑进行防御性定 价，超长端利率明显上行。然而实操之中，银行的利率风险考核指标并非 是一成不变的刚性变量，监管可以视当下的特殊情况，合理放松考核尺 度，提升银行消化超长政府债供给的能力。另外，央行也可通过一些特殊 方式，帮助银行完成久期指标的短期出表。 ►主线二：对结构性降息的猜想 由于今年以来居民需求、地产量价数据表现普遍不算乐观，因此，年 末市场开始对降息，尤其是LPR结构性降息存在期待。不过，当前贷款利 率降息需要考量的不仅仅是需求变化的问题，还需兼顾银行低息差压力背 后的金融系统风险。截至 2025 年三季度末 ...

据新华社，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议表示，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策 的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业 等重点领域。 会议同时对重点领域风险化解作出部署。据智通财经记者梳理、采访，货币金融领域主要有以下关注点： 一是M2和社融指标淡出，因为数量目标可控性、可测性及与实体经济相关性下降，同时近年来中国央行的货币政策框架加速向价格型转变。 二是货币政策更加注重促进物价合理回升，但物价回升不能只靠央行"单打独斗"。 三是再提降准降息。相较于上年"适时降准降息"的表述，"灵活高效运用降准降息"的边际力度有所弱化，同时由于跨周期调节的提出，明年降准降息尤其降 息幅度可能十分有限，或呈现频次低、幅度小的特点。相比而言，结构性降息的概率更大。 M2和社融淡出 长期以来，M2和社融作为货币政策重要的中间变量，既写入政府工作报告中，也会纳入中央经济工作会议通稿中。 据智通财经记者梳理，2020–2022年中央关于M2和社融的定调为"M2和社会融资规模增 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from September and matching the level seen in April 2025, during peak US-China trade tensions[1] - Production and new orders were the largest contributors to the decline, dragging down the PMI by 0.55 and 0.27 percentage points, respectively[1] - The manufacturing prices decreased, with raw material purchase prices and factory prices both dropping by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5% and 47.5%, respectively[2] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly rebounded to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, but new orders fell by 0.7 percentage points to 46.0%[3] - The gap between the business activity index and new orders widened to 4.2, the highest since October 2024, indicating persistent demand weakness[3] Construction Sector - The construction sector saw new orders rebound by 3.7 percentage points to 45.9%, marking the second consecutive month of increase, although the business activity index fell slightly to 49.1%[4] - The rebound in construction PMI was primarily driven by civil engineering projects related to infrastructure, with business activity index rising over 5 percentage points to above 55%[4] Economic Outlook - The overall composite PMI for October was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from September, the lowest since early 2023[5] - The need for monetary policy support is increasing as the economy shows signs of continued slowdown, with GDP growth at 4.8% in Q3[5] Policy Measures - In October, significant policy measures were implemented, including the rapid deployment of 500 billion yuan in policy development financial tools and the resumption of government bond trading[6] - The likelihood of further monetary easing, including potential rate cuts, is rising, with expectations for a possible reduction in reserve requirements and structural interest rate cuts[6] Market Implications - The liquidity-driven bull market characteristics remain evident, with a lack of momentum for a shift towards cyclical and consumer sectors, suggesting continued focus on technology and dividend stocks[7] - Structural risks persist, with high transaction concentration and elevated stock prices, indicating an increased probability of market volatility[7]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a positive performance with a recent increase, driven by market expectations of structural interest rate cuts and renewed government bond trading [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of August 27, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.19%, marking a three-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 109.37 yuan [2]. - Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a total increase of 0.85% [2]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 18.523 billion yuan, a new high in nearly one year [2]. - The ETF's latest share count reached 16.9 million shares, also a new high in nearly one year [2]. Group 2: Market Activity - The ETF experienced an intraday turnover of 19.28%, with a total transaction volume of 3.566 billion yuan, indicating active market trading [2]. - The average daily transaction volume over the past week was 4.956 billion yuan [2]. - The government bond futures saw an afternoon rally, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.2% [2]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Returns - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past seven days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.504 billion yuan, totaling 2.755 billion yuan in net inflows [3]. - The ETF's financing net purchase amount for the month reached 5.89 million yuan, with the latest financing balance at 198 million yuan [3]. - As of August 26, 2025, the ETF's net value increased by 7.21% over the past year, ranking 12th out of 422 index bond funds, placing it in the top 2.84% [3]. Group 4: Risk and Fee Structure - The ETF's management fee rate is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [3]. - The maximum drawdown over the past six months was 4.93%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.53% [3]. - The tracking error for the ETF over the past three months was 0.054% [4].

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a 0.14% increase as of August 27, 2025, with an active trading volume of 77.15 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 26.85% [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF is reported at 287.71 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.389 billion yuan over four out of the last five trading days [1] - Market sentiment has strengthened due to renewed expectations for structural interest rate cuts and the resumption of Treasury trading, following a period of market corrections [1] Group 2 - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which includes publicly issued 30-year Treasury bonds with a maturity of 25-30 years [2] - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that there is currently insufficient data to support a rapid shift of funds from fixed-income products to the stock market, suggesting that concerns over liquidity contraction in the bond market may be overstated [1][2] - The bond market has experienced fluctuations this year, presenting challenges for investors, but there are opportunities to increase allocations and engage in tactical trading following interest rate adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The bond market showed slight upward movement in early trading, with the 30-year government bond ETF rising by 0.06% [1] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 379.9 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, indicating stable liquidity conditions [1] - The yields on major government bonds, including the 10-year and 30-year bonds, experienced slight declines, reflecting a general downtrend in interest rates [1] Group 2 - The bond market has shown a "weak to strong" performance recently, with yields on interbank cash bonds turning downward in the afternoon [2] - Market expectations for structural interest rate cuts and the resumption of government bond trading have significantly boosted market sentiment after a period of decline [2] - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF is highlighted as the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes and serving as a flexible cash management tool for investors [2]