10 年期国债阶段性高点或在 1.9%左右 ——1 月利率运行分析与展望 本期要点 1 月热点回顾：央行推出 8 项结构性货币政策组合工具，延续"精准滴灌"和"结构优 化"调控思路 专题研究 （2026 年 1 月） 利率研究 结构性降息落地， 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 王肖梦 xmwang01@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王临远（实习生） 中诚信国际 研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 货币政策将延续支持性立场，收益率核心 区间或为 1.7%-1.9%，2026 年 1 月 关注二季度货币政策报告释放的四大信号， 2025 年 8 月 恢复征收国债等利息收入增值税的三点意 义——7 月利率运行分析与展望，2025 年 8 月 大而美法案通过外部环境仍复杂，降准降 息可期利率难改下行趋势，2025 年 7 月 买断式逆回购首次月初预告，流动性改 善关注短端利率机会，2025 年 6 月 中美关税博弈阶段性缓和，短期内收益率 或阶段性上行，2025 年 5 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-664287 ...

2月13日晚，人民银行发布1月金融统计数据。2026年1月新增人民币贷款4.71万亿，同比少增4200亿；1 月新增社会融资规模为7.22万亿，同比多增1662亿。1月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长9.0%，增速较上月 末加快0.5个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比增长4.9%，增速较上月末加快1.1个百分点。 具体来看，1月人民币贷款虽同比少增4200亿元，但仍保持了平稳增长，需求端显现回暖动能；信贷增 速6.1%，高于名义经济增速；1月新增社融7.22万亿元，在政府债继续前置发行下，比上年同期多1662 亿元；社融增速8.2%，比上年同期高0.2个百分点，维持在高位水平，充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策 状态，有力地支持了年初经济平稳开局。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬解读称，1月为传统信贷大月，在"早投放、早收益"的诉求下，前期项 目储备在年初集中释放；"十五五"开局背景下，重大项目密集落地带动项目贷款加大投放，今年一季度 基建领域贷款审批节奏明显加快，投放量同比实现较大幅度增长。此外，春节前企业支付采购款、供应 链和项目进度款结算、员工薪酬奖金发放等用款需求也提前释放，均支撑1月信贷增量处于高位。 往后看，为使 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the "Five Major Articles" loans have surpassed 100 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of total loans, and continue to maintain a high growth rate, indicating a significant focus on this area for future credit [5][11] - New loan interest rates have seen a significant narrowing in year-on-year declines, with expectations of continued monetary easing, although comprehensive interest rate cuts will be approached with caution, suggesting that structural interest rate cuts may become the norm [5][18] Summary by Sections Section 1: "Five Major Articles" Credit Scale - The total balance of "Five Major Articles" loans reached 108.8 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.9%, representing 39% of the total loan scale [11] - Traditional industries still dominate corporate loans, but their share is gradually declining, with real estate and infrastructure loans together accounting for over 50% of corporate loans as of Q4 2025 [11] - Technology loans are experiencing high growth, with small and medium-sized technology enterprises' loans at 3.6 trillion yuan, representing 1.9% of corporate loans, and high-tech enterprise loans growing at 19.1% year-on-year [11] - Green loans also show high growth, with a balance of 44.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, making up 24% of corporate loans [11] Section 2: New Loan Interest Rates - As of December 2025, the new loan interest rates for general loans, personal housing loans, and corporate loans were 3.55%, 3.06%, and 3.10%, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 27 basis points, 3 basis points, and 24 basis points [16] - The report indicates that the decline in new loan interest rates has narrowed significantly, with personal housing loan rates remaining stable for three consecutive quarters [16][18] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," emphasizing the stability and sustainability of the sector [20] - Two main investment lines are recommended: focusing on city and rural commercial banks with regional advantages and strong certainty, and large banks with high dividend yields [20]

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 10 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | | 表1：国债期货2月9日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.570 | 112.480 | 112.730 | 112.670 | 0.160 | 0.14 | 75752 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The A-share market weakened, and the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase to support the Spring Festival cross - season funds, leading to the overall rise of treasury bond futures [8] - The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with the decline of long - term active bonds within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.807%, down 0.6bp [9] - The inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose. The supply pressure of local bonds remained high this week, and attention was paid to the central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival. The net open - market reverse repurchase was 6.45 billion yuan, and the inter - bank capital sentiment index declined [10] - Currently, the fundamental performance is weak, but the structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's loose expectation is not strong. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing market concerns. However, the current 1.82% yield of 10 - year treasury bonds does not price in the possible future easing space, and there is allocation demand support at the beginning of the year. With the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the liquidity, the upward space of interest rates should be limited. In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range [11] - Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively support the cross - season funds, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, with a relatively warm market environment. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will rise. Although the cash return will supplement the liquidity, the central bank usually conducts net capital withdrawal, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important March meetings and policies, and long - term bonds may be more favorable [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares weakened, and treasury bond futures rose across the board due to the central bank's actions. The yields of interest rate bonds declined, and the inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market is in a multi - empty intertwined environment in February, with limited upward space for interest rates and a likely continuation of range - bound fluctuations. Before and after the Spring Festival, the market environment and bond performance may vary [11][12] 2. Industry News - National leaders had important communications, including President Xi Jinping's phone call with the US President and video meeting with the Russian President [13] - The People's Bank of China held a 2026 credit market working meeting, emphasizing financial services in various fields and debt risk resolution [13] - The Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China organized a financial situation analysis meeting in Shanghai, putting forward requirements for credit growth, policy implementation, etc. [14] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development mentioned housing security for young people and support for multi - child families [14] - In January, the transaction volume of second - hand housing in 20 cities was 118,000 units, showing a slight month - on - month decline of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, but with prominent structural contradictions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including prices, trading volume, and positions of various treasury bond futures contracts on February 5 were provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, and other money market indicators was presented, but specific data details were not elaborated in the text [23][28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves was given [34]

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 | | 表1：国债期货2月4日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.960 | 112.000 | 111.700 | 111.740 | -0.260 | -0.23 | 75582 | 125098 | -2215 | | TL260 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market risk appetite was negatively impacted by rising geopolitical tensions, the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chair nomination, and the dense disclosure of financial reports from China and the US, leading to significant adjustments in precious metals and equity markets [1] - On February 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded, with IC and IM both rising over 2%, while IF and IH saw intraday increases of over 1% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In January, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% from 50.1%, and the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.4% from 50.2%, both dropping below the expansion threshold, attributed to the approaching Spring Festival [1] - The decline in PMI for labor-intensive industries indicates a weakening production side, with significant drops in consumer goods and high-energy industries' PMIs, down 2.1 and 1 percentage points to 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively [1] - The new orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, and the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, with construction activity notably affected by seasonal factors [1] Group 3: Policy Measures - The government has been actively implementing policies to address insufficient domestic demand, including structural interest rate cuts and targeted financial tools to lower financing costs for key sectors [2] - A comprehensive consumer promotion policy system has been established, focusing on "two new" policies, with an initial fund of 62.5 billion yuan already in place to stimulate the market through subsidies and interest discounts [2] - The removal of restrictions on service industry access is expected to optimize the consumption supply structure, contributing to economic stability [2] Group 4: International Economic Context - In December, the US CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.6%, indicating persistent inflation, while non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 180,000 [3] - The US unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.4%, with the economy showing support from a revised GDP growth rate of 4.4% for Q3, the fastest since 2021 [3] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in January, maintaining rates at 5.25% to 5.5%, with market expectations for the first rate cut pushed to June [3]

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 4 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 当日行情： 股市回暖但债市情绪尚可，国债期货低开后震荡回暖，多数小幅收涨。 利率现券： 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货2月3日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.090 | 112 ...

文/中欧国际工商学院教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长 盛松成 考虑到货币政策与财政政策的协同，以及我国消费和投资利率弹性有限， 降准 的适配性 或优于 降 息 。未 来 货币 政策 面临 的内 外约 束有 望进 一 步缓 解，我国降准、降息仍有空间，但需等待更有利的时机。 在1月15日国务院新闻办召开的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行宣布了货币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展的增量政策措施，包括以结构性"降息"和定向 工具扩容为核心，引导金融机构降低对实体经济重点领域的融资成本。央行降低结构性货币政策工具利率，与典型意义上的降息有明显区别，但就目前经 济形势所需要的政策支持来说，是更为精准和适宜的。 根据传统理论和各国操作，货币政策基本是总量调控工具，但长期以来在我国，货币政策实际上大都是总量调控和结构性调控相互配合。尤其是近年来， 我国结构性货币政策工具不断创新，发挥重要作用，是支持经济薄弱环节和重点领域、推动经济高质量发展的有效手段。 在结构性货币政策工具的运用中，我们一般更加关注对特定领域的激励作用。其中，既有"量"的投放，也有"价"的激励。过去我们更多通过调整额度， 从"量"的方面引导银行信贷投放方向，而 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak - biased", and the overall view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak - biased", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that although the manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand and a future loose monetary and credit environment that provides strong support for Treasury bond futures, due to the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak - biased | Oscillation consolidation | The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - biased - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation consolidation - **Core Logic**: The Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand, which is consistent with the weak performance of December's consumption, investment, and credit data. This means that the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, considering the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]