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小红书围墙“倒退”,估值却飙到了2500亿,资本魔术还是规则重写?
凤凰网财经· 2025-06-18 13:42
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the remarkable valuation surge of Xiaohongshu, which has increased from $26 billion to $35 billion in just three months, amidst a strategic pivot towards collaboration with major e-commerce platforms like Alibaba and JD.com [3][12][17]. Group 1: Valuation Surge - Xiaohongshu's valuation skyrocketed by $9 billion (approximately 65 billion RMB) within three months, surpassing industry expectations [13]. - The current valuation of $35 billion reflects a significant liquidity scarcity in the market, with shareholders reluctant to sell their stakes [14][15]. - The valuation rebound is particularly notable against the backdrop of generally declining valuations in the internet sector [16]. Group 2: Strategic Shift - Xiaohongshu has reversed its previous strategy of building a closed e-commerce ecosystem by allowing links to third-party platforms like Taobao and JD.com [4][22]. - The new strategy, termed "Red Cat Plan" and "Red Jing Plan," enables users to directly access products on these platforms from Xiaohongshu content [27][30]. - This shift is seen as a response to the need for improved efficiency in monetization, as the platform aims to enhance its advertising revenue, which currently constitutes 80% of its income [18][35]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article highlights the competitive landscape, noting that Xiaohongshu's e-commerce GMV is projected to reach 400 billion RMB, while competitors like Douyin and Kuaishou have significantly higher figures [20]. - The platform's international expansion remains in its early stages, lacking substantial market presence or brand influence [21]. - The collaboration with established e-commerce giants is viewed as a temporary compromise to stabilize revenue streams ahead of a potential IPO [40][42]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Xiaohongshu is expected to initiate its IPO process in the near future, with market anticipation surrounding its ability to deliver stable financial performance [17][36]. - The article suggests that the platform's current strategy may lead to a dilution of its content ecosystem, as users may be drawn away to third-party sites [41]. - The introduction of the "Friendly Market" initiative indicates Xiaohongshu's intent to balance leveraging external e-commerce infrastructure while maintaining its core business model [45][48].