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牛市下半场仓位管理指南
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-02 10:57
Core Viewpoint - The most important aspect of a bull market is position management, where a correct directional position can lead to profits in a generally rising market. The ideal strategy is to maintain a decreasing pyramid-shaped position, reducing holdings as prices rise to avoid losses during corrections [1][2]. Position Management - The current market is viewed as being halfway through the bull cycle, with valuations at historical average levels. The market has recently experienced fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with support at the 3900-point level, indicating a return to a normal trend after filling gaps [1][2]. - The current position is seen as the last opportunity for light accumulation, while excessive accumulation is considered aggressive. It is advised not to increase positions further as the market progresses [2][6]. Risks of Inverted Pyramid Positioning - Inverted pyramid positioning, where investors increase their holdings disproportionately as prices rise, is deemed dangerous. This can lead to significant losses if the market corrects, as the average cost of holdings increases, making it easier to incur losses even when the stock price remains above initial purchase levels [3][4][5]. Market Sentiment and Timing - The market sentiment is currently rational, with no extreme bullishness observed. This indicates that there is still room for growth before reaching a euphoric state. The ideal buying opportunities often arise when market sentiment is low, while selling opportunities appear when sentiment is overly optimistic [17][19]. - The transition from a bull to a bear market is anticipated to be challenging for those who do not manage their positions effectively, especially if they increase their holdings during the latter stages of a bull market [6][12]. Future Positioning Strategy - The recommended strategy moving forward is to maintain a decreasing pyramid-shaped position, gradually realizing profits while protecting gains through options strategies. This approach aims to mitigate potential losses during market transitions [9][12][21]. - Investors are cautioned against floating accumulation after the main upward trend has concluded, as this could lead to significant losses during market corrections [8][20].