瑞银指，随着消费群体扩大及代购回归，将明后两年海南离岸免税销售同比增长预测从5%及10%上调 至27%及23%，同期推动海南离岸免税销售收入贡献率达到55%及57%。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称称，上调中国中免(01880)明后两年每股盈测介乎7%至12%，因该 行认为海南离岸免税销售最坏时期已过，预测中国中免2026至2027年净利润分别同比回升34%及续升 21%，扭转2024及25年跌势。瑞银将中国中免H股目标价从71.2港元升至90.73港元;重申"买入"评级。 在海南离岸免税购物的新政策下，瑞银注意到免税商品种类进一步扩大、客户群体更广泛(跨境旅客及 海南居民)，当中意味着在2021年曾贡献海南离岸免税销售额高达35%的代购可能回归(现时贡献占比仅 5%)，并将明后两年海南离岸免税销售额预测上调至21%、36%，意味着明后两年增长率分别为27%、 23%。预计优化后的离岸免税购物政策将驱动中国中免的海南离岸免税销售增长，但此因素尚未被市场 完全反映。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share forecast for China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) for the next two years by 7% to 12%, believing that the worst period for Hainan offshore duty-free sales has passed [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts a net profit rebound for China Duty Free in 2026 and 2027, with year-on-year increases of 34% and 21% respectively, reversing the decline seen in 2024 and 2025 [1] - UBS has increased the target price for China Duty Free's H-shares from HKD 71.2 to HKD 90.73, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Under the new policies for offshore duty-free shopping in Hainan, UBS notes an expansion in the variety of duty-free products and a broader customer base, including cross-border travelers and Hainan residents [1] - The contribution of purchasing agents, which accounted for 35% of Hainan's offshore duty-free sales in 2021, is expected to return, increasing from the current contribution of only 5% [1] Group 3: Sales Growth Projections - UBS has revised its forecast for Hainan offshore duty-free sales growth for the next two years from 5% and 10% to 27% and 23% respectively, with sales revenue contribution rates expected to reach 55% and 57% during the same period [1]

瑞银发表研报，在海南离岸免税购物的新政策下，注意到免税商品种类进一步扩大、客户群体更广泛 (跨境旅客及海南居民)，当中意味着在2021年曾贡献海南离岸免税销售额高达35%的代购可能回归(现时 贡献占比仅5%)，并将明后两年海南离岸免税销售额预测上调至21%、36%，意味着明后两年增长率分 别为27%、23%。该行预计优化后的离岸免税购物政策将驱动中国中免的海南离岸免税销售增长，但此 因素尚未被市场完全反映。 瑞银指，随着消费群体扩大及代购回归，将明后两年海南离岸免税销售按年增长预测从5%及10%上调 至27%及23%，同期推动海南离岸免税销售收入贡献率达到55%及57%。瑞银将中国中免H股目标价从 71.2港元上调至90.73港元，重申"买入"评级。 ...