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【高端制造】2025年新兴市场出口占比进一步提升,北美占比下滑最为显著——行业海关总署出口月报(2025年12月)(黄帅斌/庄晓波/陈奇凡)
光大证券研究· 2026-01-26 23:03
Group 1: Consumer Goods - The overall performance of consumer goods, including electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, shows mixed results with export growth rates for 2025 projected at -2%, -6%, and +32% respectively, with December showing month-on-month changes of -5pcts, -4pcts, and +7pcts [4] - Exports to North America for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers are expected to decline significantly in 2025, with cumulative amounts showing year-on-year decreases of -25%, -10%, and -17% respectively, indicating a slow recovery in end-demand [5] - The European market shows resilience, particularly for lawn mowers, with a projected export growth of +52% in 2025, contributing to a 72% share of total exports to Europe, reflecting strong demand [5] Group 2: Capital Goods - Forklift exports are projected to grow by +1% in 2025, with significant increases in emerging markets such as Africa (+35%), Asia (+16%), and Latin America (+13%), while North America and Europe are expected to see declines of -17% and -14% respectively [6] - Machine tool exports are expected to increase by +12% in 2025, driven primarily by growth in Asia (+22%), with Asia accounting for 50% of total exports [6] - Mining machinery exports are projected to have a cumulative share of 42% to Asia, 25% to Africa, and 17% to Europe, with growth rates of +25%, +36%, and +15% respectively [7]