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【高端制造】2025年新兴市场出口占比进一步提升,北美占比下滑最为显著——行业海关总署出口月报(2025年12月)(黄帅斌/庄晓波/陈奇凡)
光大证券研究· 2026-01-26 23:03
Group 1: Consumer Goods - The overall performance of consumer goods, including electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, shows mixed results with export growth rates for 2025 projected at -2%, -6%, and +32% respectively, with December showing month-on-month changes of -5pcts, -4pcts, and +7pcts [4] - Exports to North America for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers are expected to decline significantly in 2025, with cumulative amounts showing year-on-year decreases of -25%, -10%, and -17% respectively, indicating a slow recovery in end-demand [5] - The European market shows resilience, particularly for lawn mowers, with a projected export growth of +52% in 2025, contributing to a 72% share of total exports to Europe, reflecting strong demand [5] Group 2: Capital Goods - Forklift exports are projected to grow by +1% in 2025, with significant increases in emerging markets such as Africa (+35%), Asia (+16%), and Latin America (+13%), while North America and Europe are expected to see declines of -17% and -14% respectively [6] - Machine tool exports are expected to increase by +12% in 2025, driven primarily by growth in Asia (+22%), with Asia accounting for 50% of total exports [6] - Mining machinery exports are projected to have a cumulative share of 42% to Asia, 25% to Africa, and 17% to Europe, with growth rates of +25%, +36%, and +15% respectively [7]
【高端制造】同比高基数效应消退及海外季节性补库需求旺盛带动十一月出口同比改善——行业海关总署出口月报(十八)(黄帅斌/庄晓波等)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-24 23:03
Group 1: Consumer Products - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to November 2025 are -1%, -6%, and 34% respectively, with November showing a month-on-month increase due to the fading high base effect and strong seasonal demand for replenishment in overseas markets [4] - Exports of electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America from January to November 2025 have seen significant declines of -21%, -10%, and -14% respectively, with November figures showing a year-on-year drop of -40%, -17%, and -44% [4] - Lawn mower exports are primarily directed towards Europe, with 63% of exports in 2024 and 71% in January to November 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 20% in the same period [5] Group 2: Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines have the highest export market in Asia, accounting for 67% of total exports from January to November 2025, with major markets including Vietnam, India, and Indonesia [6] - Forklift exports are primarily to Europe (34%), Asia (30%), and Latin America (15%), with a notable decline in the European market share due to the situation in Russia [6][7] - Machine tool exports are mainly directed towards Asia, with a 50% share in January to November 2025, while exports to Russia have fluctuated significantly, dropping from 22% in 2023 to 10% in 2025 [7] - Mining machinery exports are led by Asia, Africa, and Europe, with cumulative export growth rates of +23%, +33%, and +19% respectively from January to November 2025 [7] - Emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America have shown strong growth, with forklift exports to these regions increasing by 36%, 16%, and 12% respectively [7]