Core Viewpoint - The event "Lohas Cross-Strait - Intangible Cultural Heritage Chuyun Lohas Jiangxia Tour" held in Wuhan from July 2 to 9, 2025, successfully attracted nearly 60 Taiwanese youth cultural enthusiasts, showcasing the unique charm of Jingchu culture and the vibrant development of Wuhan city [1]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The event featured a spectacular Peking opera performance at the Tan Xinpei Theater, with a heartfelt opening remark emphasizing unity between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait [4]. - The performance included seven classic operas, receiving enthusiastic applause from the audience, highlighting the cultural exchange between Taiwan and mainland China [4]. - Taiwanese participants expressed their admiration for the authenticity of the Peking opera and the theater architecture, sharing their experiences with friends back in Taiwan [4][5]. Group 2: Cultural Exploration - During the event, Taiwanese youth visited significant cultural landmarks such as the Yellow Crane Tower, the Xinhai Revolution Museum, and the Hubei Provincial Museum, deepening their understanding of local history and culture [6]. - The grandeur of the ancient artifacts, such as the bells of the Marquis Yi of Zeng, left a lasting impression on the participants [6]. - The participants also engaged with local communities, experiencing the warmth of home and the beauty of Jiangxia's ecological environment [6]. Group 3: Economic and Development Insights - Taiwanese youth experienced modern innovations in Wuhan, including the city's air rail system and visits to innovative enterprises like Lantu Automotive and the Yangguang Chuanggu Industrial Park [9]. - One participant, a floral design lecturer, expressed intentions to establish business operations in Wuhan, viewing the city as a prime location for expanding into the national market [9]. - The overall experience transformed participants' perceptions of Wuhan from a vague concept to a vibrant and culturally resonant "spiritual hometown" [9].

智通财经7月8日电，新加坡海峡时报收盘时上涨0.4%，至4,047.86点。 ...

新加坡海峡时报指数收盘创下历史新高。 ...

新加坡海峡时报收盘时上涨0.5%，至4,031.86点。 ...

智通财经7月2日电，新加坡海峡时报收盘时上涨0.5%，至4,010.77点。 ...

报道称，两名美国官员表示，美国政府未排除伊朗装载水雷可能是一种虚张声势的可能性。伊朗可能通 过准备水雷来说服华盛顿其封锁海峡的决心是认真的，但实际上并无此意图。 官员们指出，伊朗军方也可能只是在为领导层下达命令时做必要准备。目前尚不清楚这些水雷的确切装 载时间以及是否已被卸载。 据美国国防情报局2019年估计，伊朗拥有超过5000枚水雷，可借助小型高速艇快速部署。 伊朗6月在波斯湾的船只上装载水雷，引发霍尔木兹海峡封锁担忧升温。不过，美国官员透露，不排除 装载地雷是一个诡计的可能性。 7月1日，据媒体报道，两名美国官员透露，伊朗军方6月份在波斯湾船只上装载了水雷，这一举动加剧 了华盛顿对德黑兰准备封锁霍尔木兹海峡的担忧。 据美国官员称，这些此前未报道的准备工作被美国情报部门发现，发生在以色列于6月13日对伊朗发动 首次导弹袭击之后的一段时间。 报道指出，虽然这些水雷尚未在海峡部署，但此举表明伊朗可能真的考虑关闭这一全球最繁忙的航道之 一。霍尔木兹海峡承载着全球约五分之一的石油和天然气运输，任何封锁都将严重冲击全球贸易并推高 能源价格。 据华尔街见闻此前援引央视新闻22日报道，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表 ...

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran has brought the Strait of Hormuz closer to potential closure than ever before, which could have severe consequences for global markets [1][2] - Analysts warn that any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly increase energy prices and trigger a global recession, despite the current temporary ceasefire [2][9] - Approximately 25% of global oil trade, equating to 15 to 19 million barrels per day, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is also crucial for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports [2][3] Group 2 - Initial impacts on the oil and gas market were relatively mild, with Brent crude oil prices rising to $79 per barrel, only $9 higher than pre-conflict levels, while U.S. crude oil prices fell by 7.2% to $68.51 per barrel [3][6] - Experts indicate that if the Strait remains blocked for a week or longer, oil prices could easily rise to $150 per barrel, with significant supply disruptions expected [6][7] - The potential for a full-scale war could lead to oil prices exceeding $150 per barrel, especially if key facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are destroyed [7][8] Group 3 - The current ceasefire is viewed as a temporary pause, with the option to close the Strait of Hormuz remaining a consideration for analysts and politicians [10][12] - The crisis has highlighted the rapid escalation potential of conflicts in the region, with the Strait of Hormuz acting as a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies [12]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 6 . 2 1 - 6 . 2 7 周度研究成果 目录 深度专题 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 1、深度专题 | 新"三万亿"投资会在哪？ 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见系列" 第36期:《年中问"大势"》 2、 "洞见系列" 第70期:《 美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？—关税"压力测试"系列之十二 》 第71期：《消费困局的"盲点"？》 1、热点思考 | 美国通胀何时"卷土重来"？——关税"压力测试"系列之十二 2、热点思考 | "十五五"前瞻：迈向2035的关键"五年"——"十五五"系列专题一 3、热点思考 | 封锁"霍尔木兹"，不可信的承诺？ 1、国内高频 | 集运价格连续上涨 2、海外高频 | 美债拍卖强于预期，5月美国零售弱于预期 3、政策高频 | 2025陆家嘴论坛召开 4、Top Charts | 地方国补，缘何"暂停"？ 深度专题 1 深度专题 | 新"三万亿"投资会在哪？ 点击看全文 深度专题 2025.6.26 国际经验显示，人均GDP处1-3万美元时，需求加快向服务领域转型。但当前服务供给紧缺，投资缺口有多 大？"投资于人 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 28 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 戴思崴 | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | 伊以冲突地缘风险交易的前景：——海外 | 2025-06-20 | | --- | --- | | 札记 20250617 | | | 东方战略周观察：伊以地缘冲突升级凸显 | 2025-06-16 | | 美国中东和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the temporary ceasefire between Israel and Iran, highlighting the geopolitical implications for global energy trade, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil and gas transportation [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been established, with both sides declaring their positions, which may influence regional stability and energy markets [1]. - The Strait of Hormuz remains a significant concern for shipping due to ongoing security risks, despite current operations being uninterrupted [2]. Group 2: Energy Trade Importance - Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, accounting for 20% of global liquid oil consumption and 25% of maritime oil trade [3]. - In addition to oil, about 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade also transits through the Strait, primarily from Qatar [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Impact - A complete blockade of the Strait could lead to oil prices soaring above $120 per barrel, representing a 56% increase from current Brent crude prices [4]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Saudi Arabia and the UAE can divert 2.6 million barrels of oil daily through alternative pipelines, mitigating some impacts of a potential blockade [10]. Group 4: Alternative Routes - Saudi Aramco operates a pipeline that connects the Abqaiq oil processing center to the Red Sea, providing an alternative route for oil exports [8]. - The UAE has a pipeline that bypasses the Strait, linking land oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal, further diversifying export options [9]. Group 5: Iranian Export Dynamics - Iran's oil exports heavily rely on the Strait, with an average of 1.5 million barrels per day last year, most of which were transported through this route [12]. - Iran has a pipeline with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day to Oman, but actual usage is significantly lower, with exports expected to be below 70,000 barrels per day by summer 2024 [11]. Group 6: Risk Assessment - Analysts believe the likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait is low, as it would severely damage its economy and provoke a strong U.S. response [13][14]. - Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst, suggests that any aggressive action by Iran could lead to its perception as a dangerous adversary, prompting military intervention from Western nations [15].