2025 年 08 月 20 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250820 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为 1.04%，深证成指涨跌幅为 0.89%， 创业板指涨跌幅为 0.23%。 申万一级行业表现：美容护理、石油石化、电子在行业涨跌幅榜居前； 环保、建筑装饰、公用事业在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，白酒、智能音箱、化学纤维概念表现相对较 好；炒股软件、CRO、稀土概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is experiencing a slow bull trend, supported by increased participation from external funds and a favorable monetary policy environment [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a slight decline of 0.06% to 3725.22 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.66% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.71%, indicating a mixed performance across different indices [1] - The market is characterized by structural features, with large financial institutions stabilizing the index and facilitating a breakthrough above the 3400-point resistance level, establishing a new slow bull market trend [2] Group 2 - The sectors showing declines include pharmaceuticals, media, brokerage, and electricity, while sectors such as liquor, tourism, catering, food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, and banking are on the rise [1] - The market is witnessing a shift towards new momentum represented by large technology and high-end manufacturing, alongside the effects of "anti-involution" policies and significant infrastructure investments [2] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with a notable increase in external capital inflow into the stock market, driven by the expectation of a more favorable economic environment in the fourth quarter [1][2]

中国基金报记者 李智 【导读】白酒股强势走高，基本金属概念股多股涨停 一起来看下最新的市场情况及资讯。 8月20日早盘，A股主要指数走弱，创业板指一度跌逾2%，随后震荡拉升，截至发稿，沪指涨0.04%，深成指跌0.53%，创业板指跌 1.56%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3728.94 | 11759.56 | 1610.60 | | +1.65 +0.04% | -62.07 -0.53% | +13.93 +0.87% | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1110.48 | 2561.18 | 5900.46 | | -1.79 -0.16% | -40.56 -1.56% | -13.15 -0.22% | | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原田 | 小金属 | 指导演讲 | 饮料制造 | 日本旅 | 第四 | 化纤行业 | 航空 | 化肥农 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 科技股冲击美股，纳指跌超1%，创4月关税冲击以来的第二大跌幅，标普三连跌，家得宝涨超3%力撑道指盘中新高。英伟达跌3.5%。Palantir跌超9%、五 连跌；英特尔反弹7%。房屋建筑商股普涨。 英国股市反弹至历史新高。欧洲军工股大跌，Leonardo跌10%。绩后小鹏汽车涨超4%、小米美股跌超2%。 美债收益率扭转三日连升，十年期收益率告别两周高位。美元指数两日脱离逾两周低位，盘中曾转跌。人民币隐含波动率降至17个月最低。比特币一度跌超 4000美元，跌穿11.3万关口，以太坊盘中跌超6%。 俄乌会晤筹备，原油回落超1%，美油收创逾两月新低，布油逼近两个月低位。黄金反弹失利，再创逾两周新低。 亚洲时段，A股全天冲高回落，成交额连续5日超2万亿，工业富联涨停再创新高，恒指四连跌，东方甄选大跳水跌21%。 要闻 中印外长会谈达成10项成果。中印边界问题特别代表会晤达成10点共识。 美俄乌三方会晤地点考虑布达佩斯、日内瓦甚至俄罗斯。美媒：特朗普称，乌克兰可能需要做出领土让步才能达成潜在协议。 美商务部周二正式宣布，将风力涡轮机等40 ...

Market Performance - The stock indices continued to show strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both rising slightly, and the ChiNext Index increasing by over 1% at one point. The North Star 50 Index surged more than 3% [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3% to 3739.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index also increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index was up by 0.39%, and the North Star 50 Index gained 3.16%. The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reached 16,785 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - On the sector front, insurance, brokerage, and banking sectors experienced declines, while sectors such as liquor, pharmaceuticals, real estate, automotive, agriculture, and food and beverage saw gains. Additionally, sectors related to copper cable connections, CPO concepts, rare earths, and innovative pharmaceuticals were active [1] Market Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, the market is expected to maintain a medium-term slow bull pattern. External conditions show no significant negative factors, with some easing in tariff disputes and geopolitical conflicts, an increase in expectations for FED interest rate cuts, and improvements in domestic economic data. Although sentiment indicators suggest some localized overheating, the market has not reached a point of significant overall overheating, maintaining a pattern of advancing three steps and retreating two [1] - Overall, the market does not currently meet conditions for a bearish outlook, with two potential scenarios for future evolution: one being a market adjustment and consolidation that slows the pace of increase, allowing the slow bull pattern to continue; the other being a rapid market peak, potentially leading to a significant correction due to overheating or deteriorating trading structure, which could end the current slow bull trend [1]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to construction, evaluation, or testing results[1][2][3]

Market Performance - The market experienced an overall increase on August 18, 2025, with the CSI 2000 index performing well, rising by 2.14%. The CSI 500 Growth Index also showed strong performance, increasing by 1.52% [1][6] - Among industry sectors, telecommunications, computers, national defense, electronics, and media performed well, with returns of 4.11%, 3.21%, 2.52%, 2.47%, and 2.36% respectively. Conversely, real estate, oil and petrochemicals, home appliances, construction, and banking sectors underperformed, with returns of -0.34%, -0.06%, 0.16%, 0.28%, and 0.34% respectively [8][11] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment was high, with 117 stocks hitting the daily limit up and only 2 stocks hitting the limit down. The limit-up stocks from the previous day had an average return of 4.75% today, while limit-down stocks had an average return of 1.97% [2][15][18] - The sealing rate was 70%, a decrease of 3% from the previous day, while the consecutive sealing rate was 30%, down by 5% [20] Market Capital Flow - As of August 15, 2025, the margin trading balance was 20,626 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 20,486 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 140 billion yuan. The margin trading balance accounted for 2.3% of the circulating market value, and margin trading represented 10.9% of the market turnover [3][23][26] Premium and Discount - On August 15, 2025, the ETF with the highest premium was the Sci-Tech Growth ETF, with a premium of 9.41%, while the ETF with the highest discount was the All Index Cash Flow ETF, with a discount of 1.01% [4][28] - The average discount rate for block trades over the past six months was 5.86%, with a discount rate of 8.44% on August 15, 2025 [31] Institutional Attention and Trading Data - The stocks that received the most institutional attention in the past week included Desay SV Automotive, Anjiesi, Jin Chengzi, Yishitong, and others, with Desay SV Automotive being researched by 181 institutions [5][37] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional special seats included Dazhihui, Tenglong Co., Hengbao Co., and others, while the top ten stocks with net outflows included Quzhou Development, Yingweike, and others [41][42]

Market Performance - The A-share market indices collectively opened higher on August 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, reaching a new ten-year high after breaking the 2021 peak [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.85% at 3728.03 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.84% to 26062 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.73% to 11835.57 points [1] Sector Performance - Strong gains were observed in sectors such as stock trading software, liquid cooling, rare earths, and CPO concepts, while military and stablecoin concepts gained momentum in the afternoon [1] - Cyclical stocks, including coal and non-ferrous metals, generally underperformed the indices [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume reached 27,641 billion yuan, an increase of 5,195 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking the third-highest trading volume in history [2]

Market Overview - The main indices showed positive performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.84% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top performers were Communication, Comprehensive, and Computer sectors, while the laggards included Construction Decoration, Coal, and Banking sectors [1] - Concept sectors performed variably, with Stock Trading Software, Rare Earths, and Continuous Board Concepts showing relatively strong performance, whereas Industrial Metals, Coal Mining, and Excavator Concepts lagged behind [1]

Market Performance - A-shares continued strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high since August 2015, while the North Star 50 hit a historical peak. The Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index also surpassed their previous highs from October 2022. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.84%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 27,642 billion, a significant increase of 5,196 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. ETF Performance - The top-performing ETFs included rare earth and artificial intelligence-related funds, with the rare earth ETF from E Fund (159715) leading with a 6.31% increase, followed closely by another rare earth ETF (159713) at 6.22%. The ChiNext artificial intelligence ETF from Southern Fund (159382) rose by 5.87% [2][3]. Industry Insights - The global liquidity easing expectations have provided support for metal prices, with many metal varieties facing supply rigidity due to capital expenditures. The overall valuation remains low, indicating potential for price increases in the future. The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly rare earths, tungsten, cobalt, and antimony, is expected to see upward momentum due to improved supply-demand dynamics and policy support [3]. - The demand for rare earths is anticipated to improve further due to the development of emerging industries such as new energy and humanoid robots, leading to a more favorable supply-demand balance and long-term price increases [3]. Artificial Intelligence Sector - The AI sector is expected to continue its innovation trajectory in the second half of 2025, accelerating growth across the industry chain. Analysts recommend focusing on the "AI mainline" and see opportunities in AI applications and computing power sectors. The AI sector has not yet reached overheating levels, suggesting further expansion into more AI-related fields [4]. ETF Trading Activity - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) recorded the highest trading volume at 33 billion. Other notable ETFs included the Short-term Bond ETF (211360) and Silver Hua Li ETF (211880) [7][8]. The turnover rate for the Sci-Tech Growth ETF (588070) was the highest at 337% [8]. New ETF Launches - A new AI-focused ETF from Huatai-PineBridge (589560) will begin fundraising, closely tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board AI Index, which includes 30 companies in the AI sector. This index emphasizes semiconductor companies and high R&D investment [9][10].