海运担负着全球80%以上的货物运输，被视为全球贸易的关键晴雨表。如今，这一"晴雨表"再度发出预警。 海上贸易格局重塑 报告开篇显示，随着全球供应链的多样化和新消费中心出现，海上航线区域间的联系越来越紧密。过去20多年来，跨洲际贸易与洲际内海运贸易均稳步增 长。但去年以来，一个显著的变化是，地缘政治的紧张局势导致长途航线变更，使船舶往来更加繁忙，吨英里（Ton-miles）增长了5.9%，创历史新高。 始于2023年底的红海危机至今仍未完全平息，这也对全球海运市场带来了长期而深远的影响，尤其是亚洲—欧洲、亚洲—中东以及亚洲—北美东岸的航线成 为"重灾区"。暂停通过苏伊士运河、绕行好望角，成为替代选择。联合国贸发会议的班轮航运连通性指数显示，亚洲仍保持领先地位，但非洲在2024年6月 至2025年6月期间的连通性提高了10%。 船舶经纪公司克拉克森截至今年5月的数据显示，自红海危机以来，通过苏伊士运河的船只数量骤降，从2023年底每月2500艘左右腰斩至今年5月的1000艘不 到，降幅达60%。而通行好望角的船只数量从此前的每月1800艘左右增至3000艘左右。此外，承载着全球11%贸易和三分之一海上石油贸易的霍 ...

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report warns that global maritime trade is entering a period of fragile growth, rising costs, and uncertainty, predicting the slowest growth rate in recent years for 2025 [1] - Global maritime trade volume is expected to reach 12.783 billion tons in 2024, with a growth rate of only 0.5% for this year, following a robust 2.2% growth in 2024 [1] - Geopolitical tensions, new tariffs, and changing trade patterns are reshaping maritime trade dynamics, with high transportation costs significantly impacting developing countries [1] Maritime Trade Restructuring - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions have led to changes in long-distance shipping routes, resulting in a 5.9% increase in ton-miles, reaching a historical high [2] - The Red Sea crisis has had a long-term impact on global maritime markets, particularly affecting routes between Asia and Europe, Asia and the Middle East, and Asia and the East Coast of North America [2] - The number of vessels passing through the Suez Canal has dropped by 60% since the onset of the Red Sea crisis, while traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly [2] Impact of Tariff Policies - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has complicated global maritime trade, with the WTO downgrading global goods trade growth expectations due to the effects of tariffs [3] - The report indicates that global maritime trade volume could decline by 6-10 percentage points due to tariff increases, with a significant impact expected in the second half of the year [11] Transportation Costs and Emissions - The restructuring of maritime trade has led to increased transportation costs, port delays, and rising greenhouse gas emissions [13] - The report notes that global maritime emissions are projected to reach approximately 956 million tons in 2024, a 5% increase from the previous year [18] - The shipping industry is urged to enhance resilience against climate risks and improve infrastructure to adapt to extreme weather events [18]