Core Viewpoint - Population is the underlying logic driving economic, real estate, investment, and infrastructure trends, with significant impacts expected over the next 10 to 15 years due to changes in asset values, consumption patterns, and wealth distribution [2][3]. Group 1: Long-term Impact of Population Changes - Long-term attribute: Population changes are fundamental drivers over decades, with effects becoming more apparent post-2015 due to declining birth rates [2]. - Comprehensive penetration: Population directly influences real estate demand, fiscal sustainability, infrastructure direction, and capital market asset preferences, serving as the "underlying code" for understanding macro trends [3]. - Key role of generational differences: Distinct differences in consumption attitudes and wealth perspectives among generations are crucial pathways for population impacts on the economy [4]. Group 2: Reshaping Key Areas 1. **Consumer Market: Generational Values Drive Demand** - Older generation (born in the 50s/60s): Adopts a "frugal savings" mindset, limiting consumption willingness and challenging traditional expectations of a "silver economy" [5]. - Middle generation (born in the 80s/90s): Expected to become the main force in the silver economy, shifting focus to quality and service consumption [6]. - New generation (born in the 00s): Values "self-experience," driving the rise of new consumption areas like trendy toys, anime, and beauty economy, becoming a new market engine [7]. 2. **Real Estate: Value Logic Returns to Housing Essentials** - Three-phase evolution: Transitioning from "housing solutions" to "housing + investment," now entering an era focused on "pure residential demand," leading to a decline in speculative assets like vacation properties [8]. - Core value redefinition: Real estate value is determined by "genuine residential demand," with prime locations being more resilient; remote areas and older properties face challenges, widening the price gap between new and old homes [9]. 3. **Investment Market: Generational Risk Preference Divergence** - Older demographic: Highly risk-averse, favoring fixed income and dividend products, lowering overall societal risk appetite [10]. - Younger demographic: Pursues high returns and accepts high-risk investments, creating new investment avenues in consumption and trendy assets [11]. - Asset value reconstruction: Traditional assets favored by older generations, such as rosewood and collectibles, are expected to depreciate significantly due to lack of recognition from younger generations [12]. 4. **Infrastructure and Finance: Labor Force Size Defines Investment Boundaries** - Labor force threshold effect: When the proportion of the main working-age population (ages 24-45) falls below 25%, fixed asset investment scale will drop to half its peak [13]. - Infrastructure logic shift: The "infrastructure first" logic during population growth periods becomes ineffective, with investments concentrating in core areas and inefficient infrastructure (like remote roads and non-essential subways) shrinking [14]. Group 3: Wealth Distribution and Intergenerational Conflicts - Intergenerational pressure: Close population peaks between the 60s and 80s generations create a "time lag" in wealth transfer, leading to the 80s generation acquiring assets at high points, with some groups excluded from wealth distribution [15]. - Delayed wealth transfer: Influenced by East Asian culture, older individuals tend to hold wealth for retirement security, resulting in limited pre-death transfers and exacerbating intergenerational wealth flow stagnation and inequality [16]. Summary Population, as a long-term variable, steadily reshapes the underlying logic of the economy and life. From the consumption patterns of the young to the savings of the elderly, and from core real estate to remote infrastructure, all changes are deeply rooted in demographic shifts. Understanding generational transitions, age structures, and spatial movements is key to grasping new rules of wealth distribution and asset value coordinates, emphasizing the importance of recognizing this slow variable for informed decision-making during major cyclical shifts [17].