Core Viewpoint - The current round of Trump's tariff policy is characterized by its universality and significant increase in tax rates, with expectations that the cost pressure from tariffs will gradually be passed down to downstream consumers, leading to an upward trend in inflation in the US in the second half of the year [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections US Key Inflation Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial indicator compiled monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reflecting changes in consumer prices across a basket of representative goods and services [2]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, capturing a broader economic consumption structure with dynamically updated weights [2]. Impact of Previous Tariff Policies - The tariffs imposed during Trump's first term (2017-2018) had a limited impact on overall US inflation due to several factors, including the smaller value of goods affected and a strong dollar that mitigated cost increases [3]. - Despite the limited scale of the tariffs, they did contribute to a 0.2% increase in domestic product prices and an estimated contribution of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points to the core PCE index in 2018 [4]. Current Tariff Policy Implications - The current tariff policy is expected to exert upward pressure on core goods inflation, with signs of increasing inflationary pressure already evident [5]. - A comprehensive increase in tariff rates by 10 percentage points could lead to a rise in the PCE inflation level by as much as 1.2 percentage points, with short-term estimates suggesting a 1.8% increase in prices due to Trump's tariff policy [6]. Forward-Looking Inflation Indicators - Some forward-looking indicators of US inflation have begun to show warning signs of rising inflation, with the ISM manufacturing PMI price component typically leading the CPI by about six months [7]. - The recent rise in the PMI price component suggests that inflationary pressures may become more pronounced in the latter half of the year, particularly in food and used car prices [7].