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美国7月PPI“爆表” 美元兑日元走势反转
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-15 03:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, indicating strong inflationary pressures due to recent tariff policies, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][2]. - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month, far exceeding the expected 0.2%, and year-over-year, it rose by 3.3%, marking the fastest growth since February 2025 [1]. - Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, also saw its largest increase since 2022, suggesting widespread inflationary pressures across various sectors [1]. Group 2 - Service prices led the increase, rising by 1.1%, the largest gain since March 2022, with notable increases in investment management, securities brokerage, and lodging prices [1]. - Commodity prices rose by 0.7%, driven primarily by a 1.4% increase in food costs, with fresh and dried vegetable prices surging nearly 39% in a single month [1]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will still implement a 25 basis point rate cut in September, despite the surprising PPI data, which may lead to a reassessment of future rate cut expectations [2]. Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuated significantly, with a recent drop to 147.31, reflecting the ongoing impact of economic data and central bank policy expectations on currency movements [1][3]. - Technical traders are advised to monitor the USD/JPY within the range of 145.80 to 149.00, as a breakout above the 200-day moving average could signal further upward movement towards the 151.50 target [3]. - Conversely, a downward break could lead to a target near the June low of 143.00, indicating potential volatility in the currency pair [3].
中信证券:特朗普关税政策会对美国通胀影响几何?
智通财经网· 2025-08-02 08:28
智通财经APP获悉,中信证券发布研报称,此轮特朗普关税政策具有普遍性且税率大幅提升的特点,并 且美国企业普遍具备较强的成本转嫁意愿与能力,关税带来的成本压力预计会逐步向下游消费端传导。 当前一些美国通胀前瞻性指标已出现通胀抬头的预警信号,美国通胀压力不容忽视,下半年美国通胀上 行趋势或将逐步显现。 中信证券主要观点如下: 美国关键通胀指标详解: 1)美国消费者物价指数CPI 由美国劳工统计局(BLS)按月编制,是衡量城市消费者物价变动的重要 指标之一。美国劳工统计局通过对一篮子代表性消费品和服务价格的月度跟踪构建CPI指数,以反映美 国居民消费成本的变动趋势。美国劳工统计局每月从约87个城市地区的2.6万家零售商及4000个住房单 位采集约10万个价格样本,涵盖食品、能源、住房、交通、医疗等主要品类。美国CPI具体分类方法存 在八分法以及三分法。 6)较多美国企业提前囤货有效延后了关税冲击向终端价格的传导时点。这些因素共同作用,使得特朗 普第一任期的关税虽对部分商品价格有扰动,但未对美国通胀形成趋势性推升。 尽管特朗普第一任期加征关税涉及的商品规模有限,美国通胀未明显上行,但回溯测算而言,彼时特朗 普关税政策 ...
美联储理事库格勒:关税影响开始传导 按兵不动是合适的
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-17 22:32
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates for some time due to the inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, necessitating a tight monetary policy to control inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.1%, indicating a labor market that is "stable and close to full employment" [1]. - Inflation is currently above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) target of 2%, facing upward pressure from tariffs [1]. - The upcoming PCE data is expected to show a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the PCE price index for June, with the core PCE index rising by 2.8%, higher than May's levels [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut since December of the previous year [2]. - Federal Reserve policymakers are reluctant to resume rate cuts unless they are certain that tariffs will only lead to one-time price adjustments rather than sustained inflation [2]. Group 3: Future Implications - There are indications that trade policies will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, with expectations of further price increases later in the year [2]. - The potential vacancy on the Federal Reserve board, due to the expiration of a term in January, may lead to changes in policy direction, especially with the upcoming end of Powell's term in May [2].
6月CPI彻底“摊牌” 美联储的通胀担忧成为现实!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-16 11:30
从咖啡、音响设备到家居用品,一系列商品价格上涨推动6月通胀升温,经济学家认为这证明特朗普政 府加征的对等关税成本正转嫁给消费者。 美国6月整体消费者价格指数(CPI)环比上涨0.3%,折合年率约3.5%,而5月涨幅仅为0.1%。 但她补充说,企业和家庭部门的强劲资产负债表可能有助于吸收冲击。"企业通过压缩利润率、消费者 维持支出的能力,或在一定程度上缓解关税冲击,"柯林斯强调,"因此其对劳动力市场和经济成长的负 面影响可能受限。" 特朗普在社交媒体宣称物价"很低",并再次呼吁美联储降息。事实上,6月消费者价格水平较特朗普第 二任期开始前的去年12月已上涨1.2%。 白宫新闻秘书卡莱维特称,剔除食品能源的核心通胀低于预期"证明特朗普总统正在稳定通胀"。 "家居、娱乐和服装等品类涨价表明关税效应正缓慢渗透,"Principal Asset Management全球首席策略师 西玛·沙阿(Seema Shah)写道,"美联储至少再观望几个月才是明智之举。" 经济学家表示,他们预计随着关税影响的滞后效应被企业传导,今夏通胀将加速。6月数据尤其暗示, 政策制定者可能更倾向于暂缓降息,直到获得更多信息。 虽然关税引发的价 ...
美国4月个人消费支出增长放缓
news flash· 2025-05-30 23:23
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed a significant slowdown in April, indicating increased economic uncertainty and a shift towards saving among households [1] Economic Data Summary - In April, U.S. PCE increased by 0.2% month-over-month, a decrease from 0.7% in March [1] - The PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, and the core PCE price index rose by 2.5%, both slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2% [1] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - The latest data reflects potential anxiety among U.S. consumers regarding the economy, with the previous quarter showing the weakest consumption spending in nearly two years [1] - Despite the increase in tariffs on imported goods not yet being fully reflected in rising prices, consumer confidence has declined, and expectations for personal financial prospects have reached historical lows [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The PCE price index is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, influencing its monetary policy decisions and thus attracting significant market attention [1]