Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, indicating strong inflationary pressures due to recent tariff policies, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][2]. - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month, far exceeding the expected 0.2%, and year-over-year, it rose by 3.3%, marking the fastest growth since February 2025 [1]. - Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, also saw its largest increase since 2022, suggesting widespread inflationary pressures across various sectors [1]. Group 2 - Service prices led the increase, rising by 1.1%, the largest gain since March 2022, with notable increases in investment management, securities brokerage, and lodging prices [1]. - Commodity prices rose by 0.7%, driven primarily by a 1.4% increase in food costs, with fresh and dried vegetable prices surging nearly 39% in a single month [1]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will still implement a 25 basis point rate cut in September, despite the surprising PPI data, which may lead to a reassessment of future rate cut expectations [2]. Group 3 - The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuated significantly, with a recent drop to 147.31, reflecting the ongoing impact of economic data and central bank policy expectations on currency movements [1][3]. - Technical traders are advised to monitor the USD/JPY within the range of 145.80 to 149.00, as a breakout above the 200-day moving average could signal further upward movement towards the 151.50 target [3]. - Conversely, a downward break could lead to a target near the June low of 143.00, indicating potential volatility in the currency pair [3].

Core Viewpoint - The current round of Trump's tariff policy is characterized by its universality and significant increase in tax rates, with expectations that the cost pressure from tariffs will gradually be passed down to downstream consumers, leading to an upward trend in inflation in the US in the second half of the year [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections US Key Inflation Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial indicator compiled monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reflecting changes in consumer prices across a basket of representative goods and services [2]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, capturing a broader economic consumption structure with dynamically updated weights [2]. Impact of Previous Tariff Policies - The tariffs imposed during Trump's first term (2017-2018) had a limited impact on overall US inflation due to several factors, including the smaller value of goods affected and a strong dollar that mitigated cost increases [3]. - Despite the limited scale of the tariffs, they did contribute to a 0.2% increase in domestic product prices and an estimated contribution of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points to the core PCE index in 2018 [4]. Current Tariff Policy Implications - The current tariff policy is expected to exert upward pressure on core goods inflation, with signs of increasing inflationary pressure already evident [5]. - A comprehensive increase in tariff rates by 10 percentage points could lead to a rise in the PCE inflation level by as much as 1.2 percentage points, with short-term estimates suggesting a 1.8% increase in prices due to Trump's tariff policy [6]. Forward-Looking Inflation Indicators - Some forward-looking indicators of US inflation have begun to show warning signs of rising inflation, with the ISM manufacturing PMI price component typically leading the CPI by about six months [7]. - The recent rise in the PMI price component suggests that inflationary pressures may become more pronounced in the latter half of the year, particularly in food and used car prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates for some time due to the inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, necessitating a tight monetary policy to control inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.1%, indicating a labor market that is "stable and close to full employment" [1]. - Inflation is currently above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) target of 2%, facing upward pressure from tariffs [1]. - The upcoming PCE data is expected to show a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the PCE price index for June, with the core PCE index rising by 2.8%, higher than May's levels [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut since December of the previous year [2]. - Federal Reserve policymakers are reluctant to resume rate cuts unless they are certain that tariffs will only lead to one-time price adjustments rather than sustained inflation [2]. Group 3: Future Implications - There are indications that trade policies will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, with expectations of further price increases later in the year [2]. - The potential vacancy on the Federal Reserve board, due to the expiration of a term in January, may lead to changes in policy direction, especially with the upcoming end of Powell's term in May [2].

Core Viewpoint - The increase in prices of various goods, including coffee, audio equipment, and household items, has led to a rise in inflation in June, indicating that the costs of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are being passed on to consumers [1][2]. Inflation Data - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in June, translating to an annualized rate of approximately 3.5%, compared to a mere 0.1% increase in May [1]. - The core inflation, excluding food and energy, was reported to be lower than expected, suggesting that inflation is being stabilized under Trump's administration [3]. Tariff Impact - Economists predict that the delayed effects of tariffs will accelerate inflation over the summer, with significant price increases observed in imported goods such as audio equipment, which saw a monthly increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, marking the highest increase on record for this category [1][5]. - The impact of tariffs is expected to continue influencing inflation, with estimates suggesting that new tariffs could increase the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price level by approximately 0.4 percentage points if fully transmitted [4]. Federal Reserve Response - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut in September becoming uncertain due to rising inflation concerns [2][3]. - The Boston Fed President warned that rising import taxes will likely continue to push inflation higher while suppressing growth and employment [2]. Consumer Behavior - Despite rising prices, strong balance sheets for businesses and households may help absorb the shock of tariffs, potentially limiting negative impacts on the labor market and economic growth [2]. - The price increases in categories such as household goods and entertainment indicate that the effects of tariffs are gradually permeating through the economy [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed a significant slowdown in April, indicating increased economic uncertainty and a shift towards saving among households [1] Economic Data Summary - In April, U.S. PCE increased by 0.2% month-over-month, a decrease from 0.7% in March [1] - The PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the PCE price index increased by 2.1%, and the core PCE price index rose by 2.5%, both slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term inflation target of 2% [1] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - The latest data reflects potential anxiety among U.S. consumers regarding the economy, with the previous quarter showing the weakest consumption spending in nearly two years [1] - Despite the increase in tariffs on imported goods not yet being fully reflected in rising prices, consumer confidence has declined, and expectations for personal financial prospects have reached historical lows [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The PCE price index is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, influencing its monetary policy decisions and thus attracting significant market attention [1]