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银河证券:油价重心趋于回落 关注民营大炼化等板块投资机会
智通财经网· 2025-10-16 00:35
Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that Brent crude oil prices are expected to operate weakly in October, with a price range of $60-67 per barrel, while suggesting investment opportunities in private refining, polyester filament, and modified plastics sectors [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - In September, the average prices for Brent and WTI were $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel, showing changes of 0.5% and -0.7% respectively [2] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, marking the sixth consecutive month of production increase announcements [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly due to the Ukraine conflict, have led to disruptions, including the paralysis of oil loading facilities in Russia, affecting exports of approximately 2 million barrels per day [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - U.S. refinery utilization rate was 91.4% as of September 26, down 2.9 percentage points from the end of August, with expectations of seasonal declines [2] - As of September 26, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 416.55 million barrels, a decrease of 4.16 million barrels since the end of August [2] Group 3: China's Oil and Gas Demand - From January to August, China's apparent crude oil demand increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with crude processing at 488 million tons, up 3.2% [3] - China's natural gas apparent consumption rose by 0.9% year-on-year, with production increasing by 6.2% [4] - In the same period, China's refined oil apparent demand fell by 2.6% year-on-year, with gasoline consumption down by 5.2% [5]