聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货时这些信息的推确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方 法，并不代表广发期货或其倾眉机楣机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所袁达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或均价，投资者局比投资，风险自担 。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布，复制，如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 2025年8月25日 张鹏珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 涨跌幅 | 8月22日 | 8月21日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 8月21日 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 品种 | 8月22日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

| | 指标 | 7/25 | 8/15 | 8/21 | 8/22 | 8/25 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3615 | 3461 | 3465 | 3483 | 3512 | 29 | 51 | | | BU06 | 3421 | 3318 | 3342 | 3360 | 3372 | 12 | 54 | | | BU09 | 3615 | 3497 | 3496 | 3520 | 3545 | ટર | 48 | | 在面 | BU12 | 3484 | 3370 | 3373 | 3400 | 3432 | 32 | 62 | | | BU03 | 3430 | 3322 | 3340 | 3362 | 3394 | 32 | 72 | | | 成交量 | 322134 | 214163 | 194917 | 210728 | 257555 | 46827 | 43392 | | | 持仓量 | 450652 | 436319 | 424013 | 42111 ...

示频专期货 华南标市去 २00 1 OC -1 00 -300 -500 【 -- 10 -- 10 -- 10 -- 200 -- 20 LUT LULU LULI LULL LUIT LULU LULI LULL LUIT LULU LULI LULL · 2023 -- 2024 - 2025 · 2023 - 2024 - 2023 - 2024 - 2025 - 2025 山东非标基差(+80) 华东非标基差 华南非标基差 500 T 700 - 700 300 500 500 100 300 300 100 -100% 100 -300 -100N -100 -500 -300 -300 2019 2021 - 2022 · 2020 2019 - 2022 · 2020 - 2021 - 2019 -2021 -- 2022 - 2020 - 2023 - 2024 2025 · 2023 - 2024 -- 2025 -2023 - 2024 - 2025 BU06-09 BU09-12 BU03-06 500 - 500 - 500 - 300 - 300 300 100 100 100 - ...

[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 8 月 22 日 短期或延续降波震荡行情 风险提示：俄乌会谈。 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《宏源原油周报 20250117：特朗普即将 上台，关注其地缘政策》 《宏源原油周报 20250207：特朗普重申 降低油价承诺》 《原油周报 20250228：短期支撑有效， 减产底继续面临考验》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油月报：转机与阴霾同在》 《原油周报 20250509：短期以反弹修复 看待》 《原油周报 20250516：回落风险并未完 全释放》 《原油 6 月展望：6 月仍有下行压力》 《原油 2025 年 H2 展望：利空因素逐步 消化，下半年谨慎看涨》 《原油周报202507 ...

SC价差走强突破前高，库存骤降支撑油价震荡反弹 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：2025年8月21日，SC原油主力合约大幅上涨1.68%至490.9 元/桶，突破近日震荡区间，WTI与Brent主力合约价格维持62.84美元/桶和 67.04美元/桶不变。SC与其他基准原油价差显著走强，SC-Brent价差从前 一日的0.21美元/桶扩大至1.35美元/桶（涨幅542.86%），SC-WTI价差亦从 4.41美元/桶攀升至5.55美元/桶，反映中国原油期货短期强势；Brent-WTI 价差则稳定于4.2美元/桶。SC近月与连3合约价差收窄，由-4.2元/桶修复 至-2.0元/桶，显示月间结构压力有所缓解。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：美国原油出口回升至8-9月400万桶/日以上（年初以来最高），主 因国内炼厂提前进入维护期导致轻质原油过剩，叠加亚洲市场对美国原油 偏好增强（WTI较中东原油贴水）。此外，OPEC+加速解除220万桶/日自愿 减产的潜在风险仍压制市场情绪，需警惕供应放量压力。地缘方面，英国 对伊朗商业实体制裁或加剧伊朗原油出口受限风险，但对实际贸易流影响 有限。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - BU主力合约价格从7月23日的3594降至8月21日的3465，日度变化为11，周度变化为 -38 [4] - BU06价格从3391变为3342，日度变化27，周度变化4 [4] - BU09价格从3594变为3496，日度变化3，周度变化 -38 [4] - BU12价格从3460变为3373，日度变化19，周度变化 -33 [4] - BU03价格从3406变为3340，日度变化20，周度变化0 [4] Trading Volume and Open Interest - 成交量从7月23日的300486变为8月21日的194917，日度变化 -27620，周度变化18196 [4] - 持仓量从459411变为424013，日度变化 -5954，周度变化 -20467 [4] - 合计从42950变为30940，日度变化 -200，周度变化 -1100 [4] Market Prices - 山东市场价从3845变为3510，日度变化 -20，周度变化 -130 [4] - 华东市场价从3780变为3720，日度变化0，周度变化 -10 [4] - 华南市场价从3590变为3490，日度变化 -20，周度变化 -40 [4] - 华北市场价从3730变为3660，日度变化 -10，周度变化 -30 [4] - 东北市场价维持3880，日度和周度变化均为0 [4] Spot Prices - 京博 (海韵) 价格维持3670，日度和周度变化均为0 [4] - 露海(鑫渤海) 价格从3730变为3660，日度变化 -10，周度变化 -30 [4] Basis and Calendar Spreads - 山东 - 华东价差从 -90变为 -210，日度变化 -20，周度变化 -120 [4] - 山东 - 东北价差从 -85变为 -370，日度变化 -20，周度变化 -130 [4] - 华东 - 华南价差从190变为230，日度变化20，周度变化30 [4] - 山东基差从251变为45，日度变化 -31，周度变化 -92 [4] - 华东基差从186变为256，日度变化 -11，周度变化28 [4] - 华南基差从 -4变为25，日度变化 -31，周度变化 -2 [4] - 03 - 06月差从15变为 -2，日度变化 -7，周度变化 -4 [4] - 06 - 09月差从 -203变为 -154，日度变化24，周度变化42 [4] - 09 - 12月差从134变为123，日度变化 -16，周度变化 -5 [4] - 12 - 03月差从54变为33，日度变化 -1，周度变化 -33 [4] - 连一 - 连二月差从36变为42，日度变化 -8，周度变化11 [4] Crack Spreads and Profits - 沥青Brent裂差从30变为74（部分数据缺失） [4] - 沥青马瑞利润从 -42变为 -1（部分数据缺失） [4] - 普通炼厂综合利润从447变为496（部分数据缺失） [4] - 马瑞型炼厂综合利润从724变为762（部分数据缺失） [4] - 进口利润(韩国 - 华东) 从 -52变为 -131，日度变化0，周度变化 -5 [4] - 进口利润（新加坡 - 华南）从 -962变为 -1058，日度变化 -18，周度变化 -31 [4] Related Prices - Brent原油价格从68.6变为66.8，日度变化1.1，周度变化0.0 [4] - 汽油山东市场价从7799变为7655，日度变化7，周度变化 -77 [4] - 柴油山东市场价从6562变为6516，日度变化12，周度变化 -46 [4] - 渣油山东市场价维持3660，日度变化0，周度变化30 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].

石油石化行业：美国石油产品供应 量增加,原油出口量有所减少 原油价格下降。截至 8 月 8 日，Brent 原油期货结算价和现货价分 别为 66.59 美元/桶和 6.43 美元/桶，环比下降 2.99%和 5.36%； WTI 原油期货结算价和现货价格分别为 63.88 美元/桶、63.88 美元 /桶，环比分别降 4.04%、6.58%；ESPO 原油现货价格为 62.49 美 元/桶，环比下降 4.23%。7 月，OPEC 原油现货价格为 70.97 美元 /桶，环比上涨 1.78%；中国原油现货月度均价（大庆）为 65.59 美 元/桶，环比下降 0.80%，中国原油现货月度均价（南海）为 61.50 美元/桶，环比上涨 0.15%，中国原油现货月度均价（胜利）为 67.67 美元/桶，环比上涨 0.51%。 美国，炼油厂可运营产能利用率上涨；成品车用汽油及石油产品的 供应量环比上升；成品车用汽油库存量月环比下降。截至 8 月 8 日， 美国炼油厂可运营周平均产能利用率为 96.4%，环比上涨 2.5 个百 分点。美国每周成品车用汽油供应量为 9000 千桶/天，环比上升 511 千桶/天，增幅为 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the provided content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no clear core viewpoint explicitly stated in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Prices - The prices of various BU futures contracts (BU主力合约, BU06, BU09, BU12, BU03) generally showed a downward trend from July 22 to August 20. For example, the BU主力合约 decreased from 3609 on July 22 to 3454 on August 20, a decrease of 52 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on August 20 was 222,537, showing an increase of 5,190 compared to the previous day and 53,888 compared to the previous week. - The open interest on August 20 was 429,967, with an increase of 1,608 compared to the previous day and a decrease of 16,607 compared to the previous week [4]. Spot Market Prices - The spot market prices of asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast China) also had different degrees of change. For instance, the Shandong market price decreased from 3,845 on July 22 to 3,530 on August 20, a decrease of 120 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - The basis and calendar spreads of different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the Shandong - East China basis decreased from -80 on August 12 to -190 on August 20, a decrease of 110 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread, asphalt Marrow profit, and the comprehensive profits of different types of refineries (ordinary refineries, Marrow - type refineries) and import profits all had fluctuations. For example, the asphalt Marrow profit increased from -74 on July 22 to -4 on August 20, an increase of 38 [4]. Related Prices - The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and residual oil in the Shandong market also changed. For example, the Brent crude oil price decreased from 69.2 on July 22 to 65.8 on August 20, a decrease of 0.8 [4].

研究中心能化团队 2025/8/20 | | 指标 | 7/21 | 8/11 | 8/15 | 8/18 | 8/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3657 | 3481 | 3461 | 3473 | 3453 | -20 | -28 | | | BU06 | 3406 | 3311 | 3318 | 3355 | 3314 | -11 | 3 | | | BU09 | 3657 | 3512 | 3497 | 3499 | 3490 | -9 | -22 | | | BU12 | 3485 | 3382 | 3370 | 3377 | 3357 | -20 | -28 | | 程南 | BU03 | 3428 | 3326 | 3322 | 3342 | 3321 | -21 | -5 | | | 成交量 | 210029 | 239377 | 214163 | 260626 | 217347 | -43279 | -22030 | | | 持仓量 | 47965 ...