s 加安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/25 | | 指标 | 10/23 | 11/18 | 11/20 | 11/21 | 11/24 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东墓差(+80)(弘润) | 113 | -2 | 2 | 61 | 10 | -51 | 12 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 123 | 118 | 42 | 91 | 40 | -51 | -78 | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | 83 | 48 | 22 | 71 | 20 | -51 | -28 | | | 12-01 | 17 | 1 | -7 | 4 | -10 | -14 | -11 | | | 12-03 | 2 | -48 | -49 | -37 | -32 | 5 | 16 | | | 01-02 | -6 | -20 | -15 | -15 | -2 | 13 | 18 | | : 11:1 | BU主力合约(01) | 3277 | 3032 | 3058 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 能源周报（20251117-20251123） 推荐（维持） 安监限产叠加冬需，动力煤价格高位承压 风险提示：能源价格波动加大、海外地缘冲突加剧、下游需求不及预期 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 24 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：陈俊新 原油：俄乌局势缓和预期提升，本周油价震荡运行。11 月 20 日，乌克兰总统 办公室宣布，总统泽连斯基已正式收到美方提交的俄乌冲突和平计划草案。美 方评估认为，该方案有望为停滞已久的外交进程带来突破性进展。此事也通过 了美国方面的确认。此外，美国 12 月降息的预期在不断降温，对大类资产也 形成了打压。展望后市，地缘风险进入释放期，OPEC+暂停减产，当前油价下， 成本因素导致美国的增产艰难，库存和开采成本成为了当前油价的两大支柱， 预计未来油价保持震荡趋势。本周，Brent 原油现货价 63.54 美元/桶，环比 +0.63%；WTI 原油现 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2][10] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3][11] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [3][11] Group 2: Market Data Summary Basis and Spread - Shandong Basis (+80) (Hongrun): On November 19, it was 15, with a daily change of 17 and a weekly change of 24 [4][12] - East China Basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse): On November 19, it was 105, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -16 [4][12] - South China Basis (Foshan Warehouse): On November 19, it was 35, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of -66 [4][12] - 12 - 01 Spread: On November 19, it was 4, with a daily change and a weekly change of 5 [4][12] - 12 - 03 Spread: On November 19, it was -46, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of -2 [4][12] - 01 - 02 Spread: On November 19, it was -23, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of -7 [4][12] Futures Contract - BU Main Contract (01): On November 19, the price was 3045, with a daily change of 13 and a weekly change of 16 [4][12] - Trading Volume: On November 19, it was 242605, with a daily change of 23474 and a weekly change of -101039 [4][12] - Open Interest: On November 19, it was 338791, with a daily change of -10853 and a weekly change of -5664 [4][12] - Delivery Quantity: It remained at 4690 from November 13 - 19 [4][12] Spot Market - Brent Crude Oil: On November 19, the price was 64.9, with a daily change of 0.7 and a weekly change of 2.2 [4][12] - Jingbo: On November 19, the price was 3030, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 20 [4][12] - Hongrun: On November 19, the price was 2980, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 40 [4][12] - Zhenjiang Warehouse: The price remained at 3150 from November 13 - 19 [4][12] - Foshan Warehouse: On November 19, the price was 3080, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -50 [4][12] Profit - Asphalt - Marrow Profit: On November 19, it was 59, with a daily change of -32 and a weekly change of -89 [4][12] - Marrow - type Refinery Comprehensive Profit: On November 19, it was 654, with a daily change of -93 [5][13]

s 加安期货 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/20 山东县差 (+80) 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 2020 ·2022 2019 2021 -2023 - 2024 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 124 11/1 -200 -300 周度变化 24 -16 -66 5 -2 -7 16 -101039 -5664 0 2.2 20 40 0 -50 -89 -93 2025 沥青早报 | | 指标 | 10/20 | 11/13 | 11/17 | 11/18 | 11/19 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | 239 | -9 | -2 | -2 | 15 | 17 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 189 | 121 | 118 | 118 | 105 | -13 | | | | 华南县差(佛山库) | 199 | 101 | 88 | 48 | 35 ...

美国总统川普周二再度把矛头对准美联储主席鲍威尔，直言「此刻」就想换人，但身边幕僚极力按住他的手。面对提名新任主席的提问，川普形容鲍威尔在 利率操作上「离谱到不行」，甚至回忆起自己2017年拍板提名时，他直接斥责：「鲍威尔是个傻瓜，愚蠢透顶的家伙。」 依联邦法规，包含鲍威尔在内的理事皆享有任期保障，除非出现重大渎职，否则总统难以因政策不合就请人走路。 市场反应倒是很诚实：川普这番话一出，投资人立刻脑补「更鸽派接班人」剧本，WTI原油盘中瞬间弹升逾一美元，高见60.92美元；收盘Brent上涨1.07%至 64.89美元，WTI收60.74美元，涨幅1.39%。市场似乎比白宫更期待换人——至少油价是这么说的。 国主要指数 美国股市于 11月18日星期二 收低，广泛避险情绪笼罩市场。随着科技和人工智能估值高企，尤其是英伟达等大型股价，卖压加剧，这些股价支撑着主要指 数。人们对美联储可能下调进一步降息预期的担忧加深，这削弱了投资者的乐观情绪。标普500指数再次下跌，连续第四天下跌。道琼斯指数下跌1%，受包 标普500：跌幅-0.8256%，至6617.32美元 道琼斯：跌幅-1.0700%，至46091.74美元 纳 ...

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 11/1 -200 -300 周度变化 21 31 -19 7 -1 -1 -31 -18725 3913 #N/A -1.0 20 -10 0 -50 57 22 2025 124 ·2019 -2024 -2021 -2022 -2025 2020 =2023 2019 -2024 -2025 -2021 =2023 ·2020 -2022 BU12-03 BU12-01 200 300 250 150 200 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 -50 67 N3 1/10 0/6 /1/ 0/27 /6 8/1 7 8 -100 -50 -150 -100 -200 2019 2019 -2021 2022 2024 2021 ·2024 2020 -2023 2025 2020 2022 2023 ·2025 BU主力合约 BU远期结构 5000 3300 4500 3250 3200 4000 3150 3100 3500 3050 3000 3000 2950 TW 2900 2500 2850 3/1 9/1 2/1 4/1 6/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious and slightly bullish stance on PX, PTA, PF, and PR. However, due to fundamental pressures, the upside potential of the 01 contract may be limited. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the 05 contract. [4] - For PX, China's PX load has returned to a relatively high level. Supported by polyester production, PXN has support, but its upside space is restricted by high PX load and capacity expansion of some units. The focus is on the gasoline blending situation. [4] - Regarding TA, there are many maintenance plans in November, so the inventory accumulation pressure is not significant. But after December, as demand weakens, the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge. The market has abundant spot supply, limiting the upside of the 01 contract. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. [4] - For PF, the load is high, factory inventories have been reduced to a low level, and the fundamentals provide some support. Processing fees are expected to remain stable. [4] - For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed significantly. Maintenance continues, but the off - season demand is average. It is expected that the spot processing fees of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations. [4] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis. [8][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes figures on PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits. [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report shows figures on toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits. [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It provides figures on PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX load in China and Asia. [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA's warehouse receipt inventory, PX's warehouse receipt inventory, and PF's warehouse receipt inventory. [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents figures on filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. [47][49][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The report shows figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, spreads between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn. [68][72][79] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads. [87][89][100]

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指标 | 10/16 | 11/11 | 11/13 | 11/14 | 11/17 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 山东县差(+80)(弘润) | 171 | -30 | -9 | -27 | -2 | 25 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 71 | 100 | 121 | 113 | 118 | 5 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | 71 | 80 | 101 | 93 | 88 | -5 | | | | 12-01 | 35 | | -1 | 12 | 20 | 8 | | | | 12-03 | 6 | -39 | -44 | -33 | -29 | 4 | | | | 01-02 | -11 | -14 | -16 | -19 | -19 | 0 | | | 4:11 | BU主力合约(01) | 3279 | 3050 | 3029 | 3037 | 3032 | -5 | | | | 成交量 | 269344 | 314162 ...

Investment Strategy - The oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, global capital expenditure in the oil and gas upstream sector has significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to $351 billion in 2021. This trend is expected to continue as major energy companies face pressure from policies aimed at carbon reduction and are shifting focus towards energy transition and renewable projects [10][27]. - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, and the cost of new wells is close to current oil prices, limiting profit margins. This suggests that the growth rate of US oil production is likely to slow down, with evidence of this trend emerging in the first half of 2025 [10][27]. - OPEC+ has implemented production cuts that exceed expectations, indicating that there will be limited supply growth in the coming year [10][27]. Oil Industry - OPEC has shifted its outlook from a supply shortage to an anticipated oversupply in the global oil market, resulting in a significant drop in oil prices. Brent crude oil prices fell to $63.14 per barrel, down 2.56% week-on-week, while WTI prices decreased to $59.69 per barrel, down 0.65% [11][32]. - The report suggests monitoring companies that may benefit from the mid-high price fluctuations of oil, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [11]. Coal Industry - The market for thermal coal remains stable, with prices experiencing fluctuations. The average market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 817.1 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.67% from the previous week. However, downstream demand remains cautious, with many buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach [12][13]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic coal companies like China Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, which are expected to benefit from the stable pricing environment and their resource advantages [13]. Natural Gas Industry - There is a growing demand for LNG imports in Asia, driven by energy transition efforts in major economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea. This has led to active negotiations for long-term contracts with major LNG exporting countries [15][16]. - The average price of natural gas in the US increased to $4.5 per million British thermal units, reflecting a 4.6% rise from the previous week [15][30]. Oilfield Services Industry - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at ensuring energy security. In 2023, the total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies reached 583.3 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% since 2018 [17][18]. - The report indicates that despite falling oil prices, capital expenditures remain high, which is likely to sustain the industry's overall health [17].

贸易商基差 300 200 100 12/1 10/1 -100 -200 华东基差(镇江库) 山东基差(+80) 华南基差(佛山库) 山东县差 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 21 3/1 10/1 11/1 -100 1 1 -200 -300 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/14 s 加安期货 周度变化 -2995 -3205 -3245 -4 -9 -3 1 R -146456 -2898 0 -0.7 -3030 -2980 -3190 -3230 7 -1401 沥青早报 | | 指标 | 10/14 | 11/7 | 11/10 | 11/11 | 11/12 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | 190 | 12 | -6 | -2970 | -2983 | -13 | - 1. | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 60 | 142 | 134 | -3050 | -3063 | -13 | 1. | | | 华南县差 ...