Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4608.35 with a change of 79.20 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 72.69 with a change of 1.94 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1920.00 with a change of 71.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1430.00 with a change of 43.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 102.88 with a change of 0.00 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12209.50 with a change of 4.00 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 99.88 [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.16 [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.32 [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 158.73 [1] - The latest value of the US 10 - year TIPS is 2.04 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 10196.36 with a change of 7.19 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 368.67 with a change of - 5.76 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1047.28 with a change of 1.15 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15274.28 with a change of - 14.08 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 371.99 with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, and SGE Gold's is 1, both with a change of 0.00 [2] Group 3: Other Changes - There are changes of - 0.62, 0.01, 0.00, - 1.01, 0.00 (not specified for which items) [14]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4529.15, with a change of 25.00 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 70.75, with a change of 2.95 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1849.00, with a change of -20.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1387.00, with a change of 15.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 102.88, with a change of 3.24 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12205.50, with a change of -46.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 10189.17, with a change of -22.02 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 374.43, with a change of 2.63 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1046.13, with a change of -3.43 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15288.36, with a change of -121.10 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2] Group 3: Other Market Data - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 100.51, with a change of 0.33 [14] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.15, with a change of -0.01 [14] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.32, with a change of -0.01 [14] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 159.73, with a change of -0.55 [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in international gold and silver prices, geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, and the implications for financial markets, particularly in relation to interest rates and oil prices. Geopolitical Developments - U.S. President Trump expressed willingness to end military actions against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, indicating a shift in strategy after achieving key military objectives [2] - Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which includes prohibiting U.S. and Israeli vessels, aiming to maintain Iran's dominance in the region [2] - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that Iran must not permanently control the Strait and warned of serious consequences if Iran attempts to block it post-conflict [2] Market Reactions - Following Trump's statements, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, reversing earlier gains of over 2% for both WTI and Brent crude [4] - The U.S. stock market futures turned positive, with Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures increasing by over 1% [8] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a preference to maintain interest rates amid energy shocks from the U.S.-Iran conflict, suggesting a temporary disregard for inflation impacts [3] - Powell warned that if rising prices alter public inflation expectations, the Fed may need to take action, alleviating market concerns about imminent rate hikes [3] Stock Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index turned positive after previously dropping over 2%, while the KOSPI index narrowed its losses to 1.5% from a larger decline [11] - A-shares showed overall gains, with over 3,700 stocks rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.45% [10]

Group 1: Hot News - Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15-point ceasefire plan", and the US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power plants, oil wells, etc. if no agreement is reached soon. The White House press secretary said Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran by April 6 and calls on Arab countries to bear the cost of US military operations against Iran [2] - Iran stated that if its power facilities are attacked, it will cause a power outage in the entire region. Iran's president said ending the war should be based on safeguarding national dignity, interests, and security. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said Iran has not had direct negotiations with the US, and the so - called "15 - point ceasefire plan" is "excessive and unreasonable" [2] - China is accelerating the promotion of a new tax - local surtax. The Ministry of Finance first proposed to formulate and revise relevant laws such as the Local Surtax Law in its 2026 work plan [2] - Indonesia's president said during a visit to Japan that Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy plan this year [3] - Silicon - manganese plants are reducing production as planned, with most starting to cut production by about 30% on April 1. The total monthly spontaneous emission reduction of national manganese - alloy enterprises is expected to be 221,000 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 32.01%, a decrease of 4.08% from last week, and the daily output is 27,380 tons, a decrease of 650 tons [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - Market Performance - Key focus: Urea, coking coal, polysilicon, PVC, plastic [4] - Night - market performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.58%, precious metals rose 25.19%, oilseeds and oils rose 8.82%, soft commodities rose 2.54%, coal - coking - steel - minerals rose 9.90%, energy rose 7.95%, chemicals rose 15.88%, grains rose 1.04%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.90% [4] - Color metals rose 23.20% [5] Group 3: Commodity Futures Plate Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures plates in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal - coking - steel - minerals, Wind color metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year - to - date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.24 | - 5.76 | - 1.15 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.14 | - 6.79 | - 6.53 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.24 | - 4.64 | - 2.98 | | | CSI 500 | 0.21 | - 10.45 | 3.86 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.39 | - 7.78 | - 7.33 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.81 | - 7.06 | - 3.43 | | | German DAX | 1.18 | - 10.76 | - 7.87 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 2.79 | - 11.83 | 3.07 | | | UK FTSE 100 | 1.61 | - 7.17 | 1.98 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.49 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.31 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.09 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.65 | 18.75 | 24.27 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 5.56 | 56.45 | 82.92 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.45 | - 14.49 | 4.52 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 8.28 | - 2.41 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.87 | - 18.62 | - 1.17 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.33 | 2.93 | 2.28 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | - 1.42 | 54.13 | 104.75 | [7] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, gold - oil ratio, copper - gold ratio, risk premium of stocks, and futures prices of CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn [8]

Group 1 - Oil prices have increased, with WTI crude rising by 2.29% to $101.92 per barrel and Brent crude up by 2.51% to $107.96 per barrel [8] - The aluminum sector saw significant gains, with Century Aluminum rising over 16% and Alcoa up more than 8% [5] - Lithium battery stocks experienced a surge, with Sigma Lithium skyrocketing over 34%, Lithium Argentina AG increasing by over 7%, and Lithium Americas rising by over 3% [6] Group 2 - U.S. stock market opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.48%, S&P 500 up 0.33%, and Nasdaq Composite up 0.18% [2] - Communication and storage stocks in the U.S. market saw declines, with AAOI dropping over 8%, Ciena down over 4%, and Micron Technology, Lumentum, Western Digital, Corning, and SanDisk all falling by more than 2% [4] - Chinese concept stocks showed strength, with WeRide rising by 6%, NIO up over 3.7%, Kingsoft Cloud increasing by 2%, and iQIYI surging over 12% after submitting a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and receiving authorization to repurchase up to $100 million in shares [4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to pay attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech scheduled for 10:30 PM Beijing time on Monday [7]

Economic Overview - The latest GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of March 28 is 5.3%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The industrial and service sectors show mixed performance, indicating overall stability in production but internal structural differentiation[1] Production Insights - The service sector's prosperity index slightly increased to 3.4% from 3.2%, while the industrial sector's index decreased to 8.0% from 8.2%[9] - The overall production indicators remain stable, with some differentiation observed within the sectors[10] Demand Analysis - Consumer demand is weakening, with the consumption high-frequency index dropping to 3.0% from 3.5%[9] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, indicating renewed pressure on the housing market[18] - Export performance remains strong, with container throughput increasing to 684,000 TEUs from 659,000 TEUs[54] Price Trends - Both consumer and industrial product prices have declined, with the agricultural wholesale price index dropping by 0.83%[64] - The average wholesale price of pork fell to 16.08 CNY/kg, down 3.1% week-on-week and 22.7% year-on-year[68] Risk Factors - Economic structural transformation may lead to a decline in the fitting degree of traditional indicators[2] - Geopolitical tensions may exceed expectations, posing additional risks to economic stability[2]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 4456.45, 67.29, 1950.00, 1434.00, 99.64, and 12251.50 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 5.16, and 50.50 [2] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.92, 1.15, 1.33, 159.75, and 2.13 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, and 0.05 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventory of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 10218.98, 371.80, and 371.99 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 1.50, and 0.00 [3] - The latest values of Gold ETF持仓 and Silver ETF持仓 are 1052.70 and 15409.46 respectively, with changes of 0.00 and 0.00 [3] - The latest SGE Silver and SGE Gold deferred fee payment directions are 1 and 2 respectively, with no changes [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at 105.32 and 99.64 USD per barrel respectively as of March 27, 2026 [2][9] - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown mixed performance, with the oil and gas extraction sector down by 3.81% while the refining and trading sector increased by 1.08% [13] - The U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly to 13.657 million barrels per day, while the active rig count fell to 409 [43][43] - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.598 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 92.90% [52] - Global floating and in-transit oil inventory decreased by 7.111 million barrels to 1.199 billion barrels [76] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of March 27, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at 105.32 USD per barrel, down by 1.09 USD (-1.02%), while WTI crude futures increased by 1.41 USD (+1.44%) to 99.64 USD per barrel [26] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 368, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms increased to 136 [30] Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was 13.657 million barrels per day, a decrease of 11,000 barrels from the previous week [43] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 409, down by 5 [43] Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased by 366,000 barrels per day to 16.598 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 92.90%, up by 1.5 percentage points [52] Crude Oil Inventory - U.S. total crude oil inventory was 872 million barrels, an increase of 6.926 million barrels (+0.80%) [61] - The commercial crude oil inventory rose to 456 million barrels, up by 6.926 million barrels (+1.54%) [61] Finished Oil Products - In North America, the average price for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel was 176.49, 128.44, and 165.02 USD per barrel respectively [82] - In Europe, the average price for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel was 180.57, 138.05, and 210.57 USD per barrel respectively [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas stagflation trading pattern continued this week but eased marginally. Oil prices stabilized at a high level, the US dollar strengthened moderately, and global risk appetite further declined. The expectation of interest rate hikes by major overseas central banks intensified, leading to a fiercer competition for liquidity in the financial market and amplifying market volatility, with the VIX breaking through the 30 mark [2]. - The financial market presented a pattern of "stable oil and weak stocks." Brent crude oil fluctuated narrowly at a high level; global stock markets generally weakened, with the US technology sector leading the decline, European stocks being relatively resilient, and Chinese assets falling less than US stocks; US Treasury yields rose slightly, there was significant selling pressure on the long - end of Japanese bonds; Chinese bonds declined against the trend; the US dollar index returned above 100, and non - US currencies were moderately pressured; precious metals showed divergence, with gold flat and silver falling; credit spreads widened [2]. - In terms of high - frequency data, the US economic outlook continued to decline. GDP Now decreased from 2.33% to 2.00%; the employment market remained stable, with initial jobless claims at 210,000 and continuing claims at 1.819 million remaining unchanged; on the consumption side, the Redbook retail year - on - year increased from 6.4% to 6.7%, showing a slight improvement, but the gasoline retail price rose another 6.4% to $3.956, suppressing consumer confidence; the 30 - year mortgage rate rose from 6.29% to 6.38%, continuing to suppress housing demand. The US FCI dropped sharply from 0.123 to 0.019, approaching the zero axis, and the eurozone FCI decreased from 0.975 to 0.697, with financial conditions tightening significantly [2]. - In terms of overseas policies, officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continued to adopt a hawkish tone. Federal Reserve Vice - Chairman Jefferson closely monitored the dilemma of energy prices on inflation and consumption, expecting the unemployment rate to remain around 4.4% but with a downward risk; the European Central Bank sent a more hawkish signal, with Lagarde stating that the soaring energy prices would have a ripple effect for several months, and German Central Bank President Nagel saying that an interest rate hike in April was a possibility; the Bank of Japan released an estimated range of the neutral interest rate from - 0.9% to + 0.5%, and the current 0.75% policy rate was already above the upper limit of the range [2]. - In terms of geopolitical situations, the Trump administration's military actions against Iran were not without a plan. From a series of arrangements such as promoting the production increase of interceptor missiles several months in advance, deliberately setting obstacles in the nuclear negotiations, and controlling Venezuelan oil to hedge energy risks, the US may have anticipated the direction of the Middle East conflict early. In the short term, Iran still had sufficient counter - attack capabilities, but in the long term, its national strength would be irreversibly consumed under long - term air saturation bombing; the US was currently considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops, and Trump might hope to use the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip to seek a phased "victory" and withdraw, but the war was still difficult to end quickly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Overview: Intensified Liquidity Competition Increases Market Volatility - The global financial market continued the stagflation trading logic this week, but the increase in oil prices narrowed significantly, and the market entered a high - level oscillation stage. The financial market presented a pattern of "stable oil and weak stocks." Brent crude oil fluctuated narrowly at a high level, rising only 0.34% to $112.57 per barrel, and WTI rose 1.34% to $99.64; global stock markets generally weakened, with the US technology sector leading the decline, the Nasdaq falling 3.23%, and the M7 index dropping 5.00%, European stocks being relatively resilient, and Chinese assets falling less than US stocks; US Treasury yields rose slightly, there was significant selling pressure on the long - end of Japanese bonds, the 10 - year Japanese bond yield rose 11bp to 2.388%, and the 30 - year Japanese bond yield rose 19bp to 3.722%; Chinese bonds declined against the trend, with the 10 - year Chinese bond yield falling 2.1bp to 1.818%; the US dollar index rose 0.51% and returned above 100, non - US currencies were moderately pressured; precious metals showed divergence, with gold flat and silver falling, and the London silver dropping 6.32%; credit spreads widened, and the spread of US high - yield bonds widened 19bp to 3.31% [6]. - In terms of high - frequency data, the US economic outlook continued to decline, the employment market remained relatively stable, the cost pressure on the consumption side increased, and financial conditions tightened significantly. In terms of economic outlook, the US economic surprise index fell from 28.2 to 22.1, continuing the downward trend; the eurozone's improved from - 10.40 to - 4.49, showing marginal stabilization but still in negative territory; China maintained a relatively high positive level of 14.70; GDP Now decreased from 2.33% to 2.00%, and the market's expectation for US economic growth continued to cool. In terms of employment, initial jobless claims were 210,000, slightly up from 205,000 in the previous week, still at a low level; continuing claims were 1.819 million, remaining unchanged, and there were no significant signs of cooling in the labor market. In terms of consumption, the Redbook retail year - on - year increased from 6.4% to 6.7%, showing a slight improvement in growth; however, the gasoline retail price rose from $3.718 to $3.956, an increase of about 6.4%, and the subsequent pressure on consumer confidence and inflation expectations was worthy of attention. In terms of real estate, the 30 - year mortgage rate rose from 6.29% to 6.38%, rising for several consecutive weeks and continuously suppressing housing demand. In terms of financial conditions, the US FCI dropped sharply from 0.123 to 0.019, approaching the zero axis, resonating with the jump in VIX and the widening of high - yield spreads, and the financial environment tightened rapidly; the eurozone FCI decreased from 0.975 to 0.697, falling below 1.0 and continuing to decline, with a significant tightening amplitude [7]. - In terms of overseas policies, officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continued to adopt a hawkish tone, focusing on the secondary effects of energy price shocks. The Federal Reserve's Deputy - Chairman Jefferson closely monitored high energy prices, believing that if they persisted, it would worsen inflation and drag down consumption and corporate spending, posing challenges to the central bank's dual mandate, and expecting the unemployment rate to remain around 4.4% but with a downward risk; Miran discussed the prospect of balance - sheet reduction, believing that it was reasonable for reserves to return to a level between scarcity and abundance, and it was reasonable for the Federal Reserve's balance - sheet to account for about 18% of GDP. The European Central Bank sent a more hawkish signal. Lagarde clearly stated that the soaring energy prices would have a ripple effect for several months, and if it led to a significant but temporary inflation surge, the European Central Bank could consider a measured policy adjustment; Chief Economist Lane adjusted the assessment of the energy shock from "moderate" to "moderately large"; German Central Bank President Nagel said that an interest rate hike in April was a possibility. The Bank of Japan released an estimated range of the neutral interest rate from - 0.9% to + 0.5%, which did not change much from before. The current 0.75% policy rate was already above the upper limit of the natural interest rate to some extent, providing a reference for further interest rate hikes but also adding complexity [8]. - In terms of geopolitical situations, from a systematic strategic perspective, the Trump administration's military actions against Iran may not have been impromptu but a well - planned and clearly - targeted systematic arrangement. In terms of military preparations, the US promoted a four - fold expansion of the THAAD system's production capacity and a three - fold increase in the delivery volume of PAC3 interceptor missiles several months before the conflict; in terms of diplomatic cover, the US may have deliberately sent unprofessional personnel to participate in the Iran nuclear negotiations, creating conditions for subsequent military actions through the negotiation process; in terms of energy hedging, the US took control of Venezuelan oil sales rights one month before the war, hedging the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked in advance. In the short term, Iran still had sufficient missile and drone counter - attack capabilities, but in the long term, it faced long - term air saturation bombing by the US and Israel, and its national strength would be irreversibly consumed. The US was currently considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops, and Trump might hope to exchange islands for the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and seek a phased "victory" exit window, but the war was still difficult to end quickly in the short term. Meanwhile, Israel took advantage of the window period when the US focused on Iran to promote military and colonial expansion in Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank [9][10]. 3.2 Financial Markets: Increased Market Volatility, VIX Breaks 30 - This week, crude oil was generally stable, and precious metals showed divergence. Brent crude oil rose slightly from $112.19 to $112.57, with a weekly increase of only 0.34%, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation at a high level; WTI crude oil rose 1.34% to $99.64, approaching the $100 mark. In terms of precious metals, London gold rose slightly from $4492.42 to $4494.09, basically unchanged; London silver declined significantly by 6.32% to $67.80, with a significant divergence in the trends of gold and silver, and the gold - silver ratio widened significantly. Industrial metals showed strong performance, with LME copper rising 2.23% to $12195 and LME aluminum rising 2.52% to $3296, reflecting a marginal improvement in the market's expectation for manufacturing demand [13]. - This week, the global equity market generally weakened, with the US technology sector leading the decline and European stocks showing relative resilience. Specifically, the three major US stock indexes declined collectively, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.90%, the S&P 500 fell 2.12%, the Nasdaq fell 3.23%, and the M7 index dropped significantly by 5.00%, with obvious selling pressure on technology stocks; the VIX index jumped from 26.78 to 31.05, reflecting a further weakening of market risk appetite. In Europe, the German DAX fell slightly by 0.74%, the French CAC was basically flat (+ 0.08%), the Stoxx 600 fell slightly by 0.04%, and the UK FTSE was basically flat (- 0.03%). European stocks generally performed significantly better than US stocks, indicating that funds may have re - balanced from the US to Europe. In the Asia - Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.58%, the South Korean KOSPI fell significantly by 6.49%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.78%. In terms of Chinese assets, the CSI 300 fell 1.51%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.28%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.93%, and the MSCI China Index fell 1.24%, with an overall decline less than that of the US and South Korean markets, showing certain relative resilience [14][15]. - This week, global bond yields showed mixed trends, and the pressure on the long - end of Japanese bonds was particularly prominent. In the US, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose about 5bp from 4.380% to 4.428%, the 30 - year rose about 3bp from 4.938% to 4.965%, and the 2 - year rose about 1bp from 3.900% to 3.912%, with a limited overall increase. In Europe, the 10 - year German bond yield rose about 5bp to 3.094%; the 10 - year UK bond yield fell slightly by 2bp to 4.974%, being one of the few major markets with a decline in yields this week. In Japan, the 10 - year Japanese bond yield rose about 11bp to 2.388%, and the 30 - year rose significantly by about 19bp to 3.722%. There was significant selling pressure on the long - end of Japanese bonds, which may be related to the market's expectation of the Bank of Japan's policy adjustment. In China, the 10 - year Chinese bond yield fell slightly by 2.1bp to 1.818%, and the 30 - year fell 4.0bp to 2.354%. Chinese interest rates declined against the trend, forming a sharp contrast with the rising overseas interest rates. The MOVE index rose slightly from 108.84 to 111.95, an increase of 2.9%, and the bond market volatility remained at a relatively high level [17][18]. - This week, the US dollar index strengthened slightly, and non - US currencies were moderately pressured. The US dollar index rose from 99.65 to 100.15, with a weekly increase of 0.51%, and re - stood above the 100 mark. The euro against the US dollar fell from 1.1572 to 1.1509, a decline of 0.54%; the British pound against the US dollar fell 0.61% to 1.3259; the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose from 159.23 to 160.31, and the Japanese yen depreciated 0.68%. The RMB exchange rate remained stable, with the US dollar against the RMB rising slightly from 6.904 to 6.911, a depreciation of only 0.11%; the RMB against the euro rose from 7.97 to 7.96, mainly reflecting the weakening of the euro. Overall, the US dollar received moderate support in the context of a decline in risk appetite, but the increase was limited [18]. - This week, global credit spreads and sovereign spreads generally widened, reflecting an increase in the market's concern about the economic outlook. The spread of US investment - grade bonds rose slightly from 0.87% to 0.89%, and the spread of high - yield bonds widened from 3.12% to 3.31%, an increase of 19bp, indicating that the risk preference in the credit market was accelerating to weaken, especially at the high - yield end. The spread between the 10 - year Italian and German government bonds widened from 92bp to 96bp, and the risk premium of peripheral European countries increased slightly. The spread between the 10 - year US and German government bonds fell slightly from 134bp to 133bp, remaining generally stable. The spread between the 10 - year US and Japanese government bonds narrowed from 210bp to 204bp, mainly reflecting that the increase in Japanese bond yields was greater than that of US bonds [19]. 3.3 Overseas High - Frequency Data Tracking 3.3.1 Economic Outlook: The US Economic Outlook Continued to Decline, and the Eurozone Improved Marginally but Remained in Negative Territory - In the past week, the economic surprise indexes of major economies showed obvious divergence. The US economic surprise index fell from 28.2 at the beginning of the week to 22.1, although it still remained in the positive range, it continued the recent downward trend, indicating that the degree of the US economic data exceeding expectations was gradually narrowing, and the economic momentum was weakening marginally. The eurozone's economic surprise index improved from - 10.40 to - 4.49. Although it was still in the negative range, the decline narrowed significantly, indicating that the European economic fundamentals showed marginal signs of stabilization. China's economic surprise index fell slightly from 15.27 to 14.70, generally maintaining a relatively high positive level, indicating that China's economic data continued to be better than market expectations. Japan's economic surprise index rose slightly from 0.056 to 0.062, basically remaining around zero, and its economic performance was basically in line with market expectations. GDP Now decreased from 2.33% to 2.00%, continuing to decline from the previous high, reflecting that the market's expectation for US economic growth was gradually cooling [24]. - In terms of the financial conditions index, both the US and the eurozone tightened significantly. The US FCI dropped sharply from 0.123 to 0.019, approaching the zero axis, and declined significantly compared with the beginning of the week, resonating with the jump in VIX and the widening of high - yield spreads, reflecting that the financial environment was tightening rapidly. The eurozone FCI decreased from 0.975 to 0.697, falling below the 1.0 mark and continuing to decline, with a significant tightening amplitude of 0.278 in a week, resonating with the rise in European bond yields and the correction of risk assets [26]. 3.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The war since February interrupted the bond market's repair rhythm at the beginning of the year, and the soaring oil price signaled the risk of "imported inflation." There is a possibility that the domestic central bank may use "interest rate cuts" to combat inflation, which is different from overseas central banks' "interest rate hikes to fight inflation" [2][4][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Impact of War on the Bond Market - The war since February interrupted the bond market's repair rhythm, and the soaring oil price prompted the market to be alert to the risk of "imported inflation." After the war broke out, domestic and foreign bond interest rates rose significantly. European and American 10Y bond interest rates generally increased by more than 40BP, and the probability of the Fed raising interest rates throughout the year was about 25% as priced by interest rate futures. The domestic bond market returned to the bear - market environment before the new year, and there was even a discussion about the possibility of monetary tightening [2][12][15]. Pricing of "Imported Inflation" in the Bond Market - The bond market's focus on "imported inflation" is on inflation itself, with the core of pricing being the slope and persistence. Based on the inflation upward speed in March, the current bond market pricing is relatively sufficient. The monthly - on - monthly increase in the average daily oil price in March was +42.8%, corresponding to a PPI monthly - on - monthly increase of 1.27%, and the year - on - year PPI in March turned positive at 1.07%. If the war lasts longer, there is still room for interest rates to rise. Even if the PPI monthly - on - monthly increase in April is 0, the base effect will cause the year - on - year PPI to accelerate to 1.47%, and the 10Y interest rate may approach the upper limit of 1.95%, about 10BP higher than the current level [4][17]. Economic Situation and Bond Market Sentiment - The "economic good start" since the beginning of the year has added confidence to bond bears. From January to February, exports accelerated, with a year - on - year growth rate of 21.8%, driving the recovery of production and manufacturing investment. The recovery of the economic cycle means that time is on the side of bond bears [5][17]. Risks of "Imported Inflation" - "Inflation trading" may overestimate the global economy's tolerance for oil prices, and the transmission pressure on China's exports cannot be underestimated. Overseas institutions predict that the oil price center may rise above $150 per barrel, which may lead to a recession risk. If the oil price soars to $150 per barrel, it may cause the global GDP to decline by 5% - 8%, and the economic recovery cycle may last 4 - 7 years. If overseas raises interest rates to deal with it, "imported inflation" is likely to turn into "imported recession" [6][18][19]. Different Monetary Policies at Home and Abroad - Overseas developed countries' monetary policies are constrained by the "inflation - employment" framework and are data - dependent. They are likely to raise interest rates to reduce inflation. China, as a developing economy, may cut interest rates when facing the trade - off between imported inflation and recession. In late March, the Chinese central bank over - renewed the MLF to keep the funds loose and stable. On March 25, the central bank over - renewed 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, achieving a net investment of 50 billion yuan. After the new year, the funds' interest rate remained loose, and the DR007 center has been declining since March. The short - and long - term bond interest rate trends of China and the US are divergent [9][22].