1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price rebounded slightly. Recently, many urea enterprises have shut down their devices for maintenance, resulting in a significant phased decrease in daily production, which is expected to gradually recover to over 190,000 tons after the end of the month. On the demand side, the reserve demand has moderately increased, but the rainy weather has affected the agricultural demand to some extent, and the overall downstream demand is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. Overall, there has been no obvious improvement in the supply - demand situation of urea, and the high - inventory pattern strongly limits the rebound space. The futures price continues to trade at a low level. In the future, attention should be paid to export policies and off - season storage procurement [4]. - For the UR2601 contract, focus on the trading range of 1,550 - 1,670 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: The daily production of urea has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), including 1.05 million tons of coal - based urea and 270,300 tons of gas - based urea, with an average daily production of 189,000 tons. There are many planned shutdowns of urea enterprises, such as Henan Zhongyuan Dahua Group Co., Ltd., Yunnan Dawei Ammonia Co., Ltd., CNOOC Fudao Co., Ltd., and Linggu Chemical Group Co., Ltd. [4][20][24] - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 24.18% (-1.32%), and the finished product inventory is 709,100 tons (a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous period). The production of autumn fertilizers is coming to an end, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers is at a low level. The operating rate of melamine is 55.18% (-10.29%), showing a significant month - on - month decline [4][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 6.71 days (a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 days) [4][30]. - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price is oscillating strongly, and the profit of urea has decreased month - on - month [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Breakdown - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly this week [6]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price has shown a mixed trend of rising and falling [10]. - **Supply**: The daily production has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), and the average daily production is 189,000 tons. Many enterprises have planned shutdowns [16][20][24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the pre - sales days of enterprises have decreased [26][30]. - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine enterprises have decreased [32][33]. - **Raw Material End**: The coal price is trading strongly [35]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [44]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: Relevant data on spreads such as liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride (in terms of pure nitrogen) are presented [54].