Core Viewpoint - The domestic fertilizer industry is facing intensified competition, leading to a significant decline in urea prices and increased losses for companies due to oversupply and weak demand [1][2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Urea prices in North China fell below 1600 RMB per ton in September, with further declines observed post-National Day, reaching 1500-1570 RMB in Shandong and 1490-1520 RMB in Shanxi, marking over a 20% year-on-year drop [1][2]. - The overall urea production capacity in China is projected to reach 7900 million tons by the end of the year, with an expected oversupply of 5-6 million tons [2][6]. - The agricultural demand for urea is limited, with a decrease in summer grain planting area and a slowdown in industrial demand due to the real estate sector's downturn [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of urea enterprises is approximately 82.39%, down 3.64 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant increase in urea inventory, reaching 145.98 million tons as of October 5 [4][5]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with downstream purchasing activity low and a lack of strong demand leading to continuous price declines [3][4]. Group 3: Export Policies - The National Development and Reform Commission has adjusted fertilizer export policies, allowing for a total of 450 million tons to be exported by the end of September, but the allocation of export quotas has favored storage enterprises over production companies [6][7]. - Companies have suggested optimizing the export quota distribution to increase the share for production enterprises and dynamically adjusting export policies based on market conditions [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price rebounded slightly. Recently, many urea enterprises have shut down their devices for maintenance, resulting in a significant phased decrease in daily production, which is expected to gradually recover to over 190,000 tons after the end of the month. On the demand side, the reserve demand has moderately increased, but the rainy weather has affected the agricultural demand to some extent, and the overall downstream demand is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. Overall, there has been no obvious improvement in the supply - demand situation of urea, and the high - inventory pattern strongly limits the rebound space. The futures price continues to trade at a low level. In the future, attention should be paid to export policies and off - season storage procurement [4]. - For the UR2601 contract, focus on the trading range of 1,550 - 1,670 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: The daily production of urea has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), including 1.05 million tons of coal - based urea and 270,300 tons of gas - based urea, with an average daily production of 189,000 tons. There are many planned shutdowns of urea enterprises, such as Henan Zhongyuan Dahua Group Co., Ltd., Yunnan Dawei Ammonia Co., Ltd., CNOOC Fudao Co., Ltd., and Linggu Chemical Group Co., Ltd. [4][20][24] - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 24.18% (-1.32%), and the finished product inventory is 709,100 tons (a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous period). The production of autumn fertilizers is coming to an end, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers is at a low level. The operating rate of melamine is 55.18% (-10.29%), showing a significant month - on - month decline [4][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 6.71 days (a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 days) [4][30]. - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price is oscillating strongly, and the profit of urea has decreased month - on - month [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Breakdown - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly this week [6]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price has shown a mixed trend of rising and falling [10]. - **Supply**: The daily production has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), and the average daily production is 189,000 tons. Many enterprises have planned shutdowns [16][20][24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the pre - sales days of enterprises have decreased [26][30]. - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine enterprises have decreased [32][33]. - **Raw Material End**: The coal price is trading strongly [35]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [44]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: Relevant data on spreads such as liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride (in terms of pure nitrogen) are presented [54].

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, the price of urea futures has reached a new low for the year, with total open interest increasing significantly, indicating a market in a phase of delayed demand release, limited supply contraction, and undecided policies [1] Demand Dynamics - The demand for urea is currently characterized by delayed release and structural differentiation, with initial signs of recovery in autumn fertilizer demand following the end of rainfall in North China, but downstream stocking enthusiasm remains low [2][4] - The price of small granular urea has recently dropped to around 1500 yuan/ton, a 14.53% decrease compared to the same period last year, with some regions seeing spot prices fall to 1460 yuan/ton, marking a yearly low [4] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand for urea shows a differentiated pattern, with compound fertilizer companies holding 735,000 tons of finished product inventory and a low operating rate of 25.5% year-on-year [5] - The decline in urea prices has led to increased profits for melamine, with theoretical gross margins rising to 400 yuan/ton, while the board industry faces reduced production due to persistent humid weather [5] Supply Situation - Short-term supply contraction is limited, with urea daily production dropping from around 200,000 tons to nearly 190,000 tons due to maintenance, but still at a high level compared to the past five years [6][8] - The impact of maintenance on production is expected to be minimal, with only a few companies announcing specific maintenance schedules [9] Policy and Export Outlook - In September, China's urea exports reached 1 million tons, but the cumulative export volume from January to September was only 2.44 million tons, far below the annual quota of 4.2 million tons [10] - The upcoming tender from India for 2 million tons of urea presents a significant opportunity for domestic companies to reduce inventory, contingent on the extension of the export window and potential adjustments to export pricing policies [10] Price Guidance - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has issued a quarterly guidance price for urea, indicating a clear intention to support prices, although practical implementation remains questionable [11] - Urea inventory has risen to a high of 1.4439 million tons, which is expected to suppress upward price movement in the short term [11][13] Market Sentiment - The emergence of low prices has led to marginal improvements in the urea fundamentals, with futures prices finding support around 1600 yuan/ton, but the market still faces significant supply-demand pressures [13]

尿素周报 | 2025-10-12 内需继续偏弱，关注政策动态 市场要闻与重要数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1597元/吨（-12）；河南小颗粒市场价1530元/吨（-10）；山东小颗粒市场价1540元/吨（-10）； 江苏小颗粒市场价1550元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-47元/吨（+2）；河南尿素基差-57 元/吨（-18）；江苏尿素基差-37元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润10.0元/吨（-10.0）；出口利润982.4元/吨（+11.3）。 供应端：截至2025-10-12，企业产能利用率85.67%（+1.97%）；企业厂内库存为144.4万吨（+21.2）；港口库存为41.5 万吨（-3.8）。 需求端：截至2025-10-12，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+4.0%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.2）。 市场分析 尿素需求偏弱，尿素现货价格持续走弱，期货跟随震荡下跌，企业继续下调报价，低位成交好转，持续性一般。 内需跟进不足导致厂内库存继续累积，本周较国庆节前累库21万吨，港口库存随着出口有序进行小幅去库 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡回落。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体 高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素 整体供过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1780（+20），基本 面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差117，升贴水比例6.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存141万吨（+0.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国际尿素价格偏强，出口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall oversupply in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is at a moderate level, while agricultural demand is limited. Although the export profit is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is strong, and the urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has recently declined after a previous increase due to rumors of export liberalization. Current daily production and operating rates are still high, and inventory is at a high level overall. The domestic urea market remains in a significant oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 66, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.7%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price, non - over - expected export policy liberalization, and a significant domestic oversupply situation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1780 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1790 (0), and the FOB China price is 3031 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1714 (0), the basis is 66 (-10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1753 (-4), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1664 (6) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7928 (723), the UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), the UR manufacturer inventory is 85.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.3 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also generally shown an upward trend, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9%. The import dependence has fluctuated between 8.4% and 19.3%. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The short - term price of urea is likely to decline but the downside space is limited, with support at the 1700 price level. The reasons include high domestic production and operation rates, weak domestic demand, weak cost support, and the need to focus on the impact of export policies on prices [3]. - In the futures market, urea is in a pattern with upper - limit pressure and lower - limit support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [9]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Urea Trend Review - In August 2025, the domestic urea market was under pressure. Although export policies boosted market sentiment, they had limited impact on actual demand. The market's acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and prices generally showed a weak trend. The price trend can be divided into three stages: an initial rise followed by a fall, a continuous decline in the middle, and a short - term rebound followed by a weakening in the late stage [14]. Urea Supply New Capacity - From January to August 2025, multiple urea production facilities were put into operation, with a total new production capacity of 225 tons and a production capacity growth rate of 2.98%. It is estimated that the total new production capacity in 2025 will reach 494 tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55% [27]. Production and Operation - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea production was 5.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.10%. Although the daily production and operation rate decreased month - on - month due to increased maintenance plans, the overall supply remained high [31]. Urea Export - In July 2025, domestic urea exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a total export volume of 567,200 tons. In August, a third batch of export quotas was issued, with an estimated quantity of 700,000 - 1,000,000 tons. After adding this batch, the total export quota for the year exceeded 4 million tons [50]. - India conducted multiple urea import tenders in 2025, which had an impact on the international urea market [47][48]. Urea Demand Overall Demand - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea consumption was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.65%. It was the traditional off - season for agricultural demand, and both enterprise and port inventories increased, leading to a significant decrease in consumption [74]. Substitute Demand - There is a substitution relationship between urea and other fertilizers. Currently, urea has no obvious price advantage compared with ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride, but it has a cost - performance advantage compared with phosphate and potash fertilizers [76]. Agricultural Demand - August is the traditional off - season for domestic agricultural demand. In September, autumn fertilization will gradually start, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [123]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - In August, compound fertilizer factories gradually started autumn fertilizer production, with a significant month - on - month increase in the operation rate. However, the shipment rhythm of autumn fertilizer preparation was slow, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate [124]. Urea - Formaldehyde Resin Demand - In August 2025, the formaldehyde operation rate increased slightly week - on - week. Although domestic real - estate data was not good, plywood exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, which may support the demand for urea - formaldehyde resin [134]. Melamine Demand - In July 2025, the estimated melamine production was 135,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8.48%. The market was weak in the first half of the month and improved slightly in the second half, but the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak [140]. Urea Summer Storage - The new "National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve Management Measures" for the 2024 - 2026 period has reduced the proportion of urea reserves, changed the requirements for targets, extended the storage period, adjusted the assessment indicators, and extended the delivery time [152][153][154]. Urea Inventory - In August 2025, urea enterprise inventories showed an overall accumulation trend, reaching 1.0858 million tons at the end of the month, an increase of 168,500 tons compared with the beginning of the month. Port inventories reached a high level in the same period of previous years due to the opening of export policies [166]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Supply forecast: The August production is adjusted according to actual production, and the September production forecast is adjusted according to maintenance plans. The daily production in September is expected to increase month - on - month. - Export forecast: The total export quota for the year exceeds 4 million tons, and this amount is evenly distributed to the second - half months. - In September, domestic agricultural demand will enter the autumn fertilizer - preparation stage, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [169].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production and inventory levels, while international prices are strong. The export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has fluctuated and declined recently. The market was affected by rumors of the liberalization of urea exports, leading to a rise in futures prices, but then market sentiment subsided. Currently, daily production and the operating rate remain at relatively high levels, and inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are moderate, and agricultural demand is limited. Overall, supply exceeds demand significantly in the domestic urea market, export profits are still strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 94, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has turned bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International urea prices are strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1840 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1850 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 3102 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1746 (-7), the UR05 contract is 1791 (+2), and the UR09 contract is 1679 (-23). The basis of the UR01 contract is 94 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 6473 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 896,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 541,000 tons [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is expected to experience a downward price trend in the second half of 2025 due to seasonal demand fluctuations, high inventory levels, and ongoing supply pressures, despite potential short-term rebounds in August and September driven by agricultural demand and export activities [1][13]. Production Capacity and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the urea industry added 3.51% in production capacity, totaling 309 million tons, with a theoretical capacity increase from 76.7 million tons to 79.39 million tons [2]. - The industry is projected to add another 292 million tons of capacity in the second half of 2025, leading to a total capacity increase of 7.31% for the year [2]. - The profitability of urea production is under pressure, with costs primarily driven by coal and natural gas prices, which account for about 70% of total production costs [2][3]. Cost Analysis - As of June 2025, the production costs for urea varied by production method, with natural gas-based urea costing 1971 CNY/ton, fixed bed process at 1917 CNY/ton, and fluidized bed process at 1478 CNY/ton [3]. - Profit margins for different production methods showed significant variation, with fixed bed and fluidized bed processes experiencing improved margins, while natural gas-based production faced losses [3]. Market Demand Dynamics - Agricultural demand for urea is expected to decline in July due to the seasonal off-peak period, with a potential rebound in August and September driven by fall fertilization and export activities [1][7]. - The overall agricultural demand is supported by the ongoing construction of high-standard farmland, which is projected to increase urea consumption [7][8]. - Industrial demand for urea, particularly from melamine and urea-formaldehyde resin sectors, remains stagnant due to weak real estate market conditions and export challenges [9]. Inventory and Export Policies - Urea port inventories have been rising since May 2025, with expectations of continued accumulation in the third quarter, influenced by export policies and market conditions [10][11]. - The export policy for urea has been clarified, with a total export quota of 2 million tons set for May to October 2025, which may help alleviate some supply pressures [11][12]. Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is characterized by seasonal demand fluctuations, with expectations of lower production utilization rates due to the agricultural off-season and potential winter heating demands impacting natural gas supply [6][12]. - Overall, the urea market is anticipated to remain oversupplied, with price pressures expected to persist unless significant changes occur in export policies or seasonal storage strategies [13].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The recent urea futures market has rebounded. Although international urea prices remain strong, China's second - batch export quota of 120,000 tons is significantly lower than the first batch of 200,000 tons, falling short of expectations. The domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and inventories have increased again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation. The second - batch export quota is lower than expected, industrial and agricultural demands are weak, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 102, and the premium - discount ratio is - 6.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract has rebounded, international prices are strong, but the export quota is lower than expected, and the domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, weak domestic demand, and the export quota falling short of expectations. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1710 (-20), Shandong spot is 1710 (-30), Henan spot is 1720 (-5), and FOB China is 2548 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 are 1780 (+60), 1787 (+56), and 1812 (+67) respectively, and the basis of the UR09 contract is - 102 (-87) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), the UR factory inventory is 1.177 million tons (+142,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 245,000 tons (+40,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10] |