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天味食品(603317):2025年一季报点评:短期调整致业绩承压,轻装上阵改善可期
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-29 12:04
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance was below expectations, with revenue of 642 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 57.53% year-on-year [7] - The decline in revenue across various product categories is attributed to pre-holiday inventory buildup and proactive inventory clearance by the company [7] - Online sales showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 54%, while offline sales decreased by 39.5% [7] - The company has expanded its distributor network, adding 98 new distributors by the end of Q1 2025 [7] - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to fixed costs amidst declining revenue [7] - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in performance moving forward, supported by healthy channel inventory levels [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.66 billion yuan, 4.02 billion yuan, and 4.44 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 10%, and 11% [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 626 million yuan, 706 million yuan, and 798 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.3%, 12.72%, and 12.94% [7] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 20x, 18x, and 16x, respectively [7]