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国泰海通:看好金价上行提振 品类分化、渠道为基
智通财经网· 2025-04-22 09:26
Core Viewpoint - The expectation of rising gold prices is boosting the sales of gold jewelry and investment gold, with the industry likely to experience a structural market driven by price increases and category differentiation in 2024 [1] Group 1: Gold Price Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on rising gold prices, which are expected to enhance inventory value and gross margins for gold jewelry brands with low hedging ratios [1] - International gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and the weakening of the US dollar, leading to increased gold reserves by central banks globally [1] Group 2: Category Differentiation - While the sales volume of weight-based gold products may face pressure, fixed-price investment gold and diamond-studded products are expected to benefit from rising gold prices, accelerating terminal sales [2] - Brands with a higher sales contribution from fixed-price, diamond-studded, and investment gold categories are projected to show better sales growth by Q1 2025 [2] Group 3: Channel Expansion - The expansion of channel networks is crucial for supporting performance, with new store openings and terminal sales driving wholesale shipment volumes [3] - The company anticipates steady net growth in channel expansion in 2024, particularly for brands with a high proportion of sales from weight-based gold and investment gold [3] - The gold jewelry sector is characterized by low valuations and strong domestic demand, with expectations of a recovery in same-store sales boosting valuations [3]