Core Viewpoint - Southeast Asia is emerging as a significant growth area for the gold and jewelry industry, presenting strategic opportunities for Chinese brands to expand internationally [1][2]. Industry Overview - The Southeast Asian gold and jewelry market is experiencing rapid growth, becoming a crucial growth engine for the global industry [2]. - The GDP of the six core Southeast Asian countries is expected to maintain steady growth, with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia projected to have economic growth rates exceeding that of China over the next three years [2]. - The market size of the gold and jewelry sector in these six countries is expected to reach $11.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, with a CAGR of 7.6% from 2021 to 2024 [2]. Consumer Trends - Traditional culture and emotional value are driving the demand for gold jewelry, while investment gold demand is increasing due to risk aversion [3]. - In Singapore, the high-end jewelry market is characterized by low concentration and a fragmented competitive landscape, with significant demand for luxury jewelry [3]. - Malaysia's jewelry market is growing steadily, with a focus on 22K gold jewelry and a stable share of accessory jewelry [3]. - Thailand shows a preference for 23K gold and gemstones, with a stable competitive landscape among leading brands [3]. - Vietnam's market is stable, with rising demand for investment and accessory jewelry, although overall gold jewelry consumption has seen a decline [3]. - Indonesia's market is rapidly growing, with stable demand for gold jewelry and a surge in investment demand for gold bars and coins [3]. Brand Expansion - Southeast Asia is becoming a strategic launchpad for Chinese gold and jewelry brands due to cultural proximity and a preference for gold products [5]. - Major brands like Lao Pu Gold, Chow Tai Fook, and Luk Fook are successfully expanding their presence in Southeast Asia, with plans for further international growth [6]. - Lao Pu Gold has successfully entered the Singapore market and plans to expand into Japan by 2026 [6]. - Chow Tai Fook reported strong sales performance in Southeast Asia, with 23 stores in the region and a commitment to international development [6]. - Luk Fook Group is also focusing on overseas expansion, with 12 stores in Southeast Asia [6]. - Chao Hong Ji is accelerating its store openings in Southeast Asia, with plans to establish more stores through a franchise model [6]. - Yu Garden Holdings is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia [6].

Group 1: Gold and Jewelry - In H1 2025, gold prices surged, leading to a decline in gold jewelry consumption while investment gold consumption increased, continuing the trend from 2024 [13][17] - The report anticipates that in H2 2025, gold prices may fluctuate at high levels due to geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns, with central banks continuing to purchase gold [23] - Recommended companies include Laopuhuang, Chow Tai Fook, Chao Hong Ji, and Cai Bai Co., which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in gold consumption [23][24][26][30] Group 2: Cosmetics - The cosmetics market showed weak performance in H1 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.1% from January to May, lagging behind overall retail growth [32][35] - Long-term trends in the cosmetics industry remain focused on increasing penetration rates and domestic brand substitution, with a recommendation to focus on brands like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Co. for their strong performance and growth potential [35][36][42] - Mao Ge Ping is highlighted for its high-end positioning and significant growth in both online and offline channels, while Shangmei Co. has shown impressive performance during promotional events [36][42] Group 3: Personal Care - The personal care sector, particularly in sanitary napkins and oral care, is expected to maintain stable demand, with domestic brands leading the market [49][51] - The oral care segment is experiencing a shift towards higher-value products driven by consumer demand for efficacy, with domestic brands like Deng Kang Oral Care gaining market share [53][54] - Key companies to watch include Baiya Co. and Deng Kang Oral Care, which are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [49][53] Group 4: Apparel and Footwear - The apparel retail sector showed moderate growth in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in retail sales from January to May [8][14] - Outdoor brands are performing exceptionally well, with high-end outdoor brands like Amer Sports and Anta showing significant revenue growth [8][15] - Recommended companies include Anta Sports for its strong outdoor brand growth and Mercury Home Textiles for its effective marketing strategies [15][16] Group 5: Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is witnessing a shift in export share towards Southeast Asia, with a notable decline in imports from China to the U.S. [8][18] - The report indicates that U.S. apparel imports from Southeast Asia are increasing, while imports from China are decreasing, suggesting a strategic shift in manufacturing locations [18][19] - Companies with diversified production capabilities across regions are recommended for investment consideration [18][19] Group 6: Home Furnishings - The home furnishings market is experiencing growth driven by government policies encouraging upgrades, with furniture retail sales in May 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 25.6% [8][20] - Key players in the home furnishings sector include Gujia Home and Oppein Home, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market trends [20][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.23 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the revenue reached 8.22 billion yuan, marking a 30.2% increase year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 320 million yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total revenue was 20.23 billion yuan, with a net profit of 720 million yuan. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 8.22 billion yuan, and the net profit was 320 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 280 million yuan, reflecting a 9.9% year-on-year increase [2][4][10]. Business Operations - The company operates a fully direct sales model, achieving stable growth in operating profits. In 2024, the total number of stores reached 100, with a net increase of 13 stores. Offline revenue was 15.1 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, while e-commerce revenue was 4.8 billion yuan, up 60% year-on-year [10]. Product Performance - The gross profit for 2024 was 1.808 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the structural reasons of hot sales in investment gold [10]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its steady expansion across all channels, with expectations for stable growth in overall performance in 2025. The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is maintained at a high level of 78%, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns. EPS is projected to reach 1.05, 1.16, and 1.27 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.23 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, which is a 1.7% increase year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 8.22 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.2%, with a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total revenue reached 20.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.7%. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 8.22 billion yuan, marking a 30.2% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 320 million yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [2][6]. Operational Highlights - The company achieved a total of 100 stores by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 13 stores. Offline revenue was 15.1 billion yuan, growing 13% year-on-year, accounting for 75% of total revenue. E-commerce revenue reached 4.8 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60% year-on-year, representing 24% of total revenue [11]. Product Performance - The gross profit for 2024 was 1.808 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. The company experienced a structural increase in gross profit due to the strong sales of investment gold products, despite a decline in the gross profit margin [11]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its steady expansion across all channels in 2025, with expectations for stable growth in overall performance. The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is maintained at a high level of 78%, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns. The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is expected to be 1.05, 1.16, and 1.27 yuan respectively [11].

2025.05. 03 本文字数：1448，阅读时长大约2分钟 导读 ：价格"跳水"刺激观望者蜂拥而至，市场客流激增。 五一假期，黄金价格仍在走低。5月1日，现货黄金一度跌超2%，逼近3220美元/盎司。虽次日小幅反 弹，但截至发稿，伦敦金现仍承压于3245美元/盎司下方。国内黄金集散地深圳水贝实时金价同步回落 至780元/克。 价格"跳水"刺激观望者蜂拥而至，市场客流激增。 ▲（水贝黄金门店5月2日实时金价。摄影 /王方然） 5月2日，记者前往水贝进行实地探访，下午2点深圳水贝金展珠宝广场、水贝万山的黄金铺位已被围堵 得水泄不通。 记者注意到，部分外地游客正带着行李箱"扫货"。一名来自广西的消费者刚刚购入了1块100克的投资 金、2只莫比乌斯手镯，花费超10万元。据她介绍，这2只手镯是给家里两姐妹带的"特产"。他们家每 年都有习惯囤些黄金，今年刚好在水贝完成计划。 "来涨涨见识。"来自福建的元女士这次是和几个姐妹一起来水贝打卡。他们这次的目标是某知名品牌玫 瑰花窗的"高仿款"，类似的款式，价格为1.3万元，仅为正品的二分之一至三分之一。而且上个月20号 她曾经通过代购远程联系过水贝的商家，当时的价格还接近1 ...