Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs is gradually diminishing in Q4, leading to a stabilization of orders. Nike's latest quarterly performance exceeded market expectations, signaling a recovery point, which is expected to improve supplier outlooks [1][5]. Brand Apparel Insights - In September, the retail sales of clothing increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth acceleration of 1.6 percentage points [1]. - E-commerce performance in October showed positive trends across all categories, with outdoor products leading growth. Year-on-year growth rates for various categories included: sports apparel at 0%, outdoor apparel at +19%, leisure apparel at 0%, home textiles at +1%, and personal care at +2% [2]. - Leading brands in sports apparel growth included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth [2]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, October saw a year-on-year decline in textile exports from China (-9.1%) and Vietnam (-1.0%), with apparel and footwear exports from China down by 16.0% and 21.0% respectively. However, PMI indices for Indonesia, India, and Vietnam showed increases, indicating a stable manufacturing environment [3]. - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies are optimistic about future revenue, with orders visibility extending to six months for certain firms. Companies like Yu Hong expect revenue recovery in Q4, while Wei Hong has strong demand driven by the upcoming World Cup [4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The textile manufacturing sector is expected to see order recovery in Q4, with companies like Shenzhou International and Huali Group positioned to benefit from tariff stability and Nike's recovery [5][6]. - In the brand apparel sector, the long-term growth potential of the sports and outdoor segment is highlighted, with recommendations for brands like Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, as well as non-sport brands benefiting from a "brand upward" strategy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of rising gold prices is boosting the sales of gold jewelry and investment gold, with the industry likely to experience a structural market driven by price increases and category differentiation in 2024 [1] Group 1: Gold Price Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on rising gold prices, which are expected to enhance inventory value and gross margins for gold jewelry brands with low hedging ratios [1] - International gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and the weakening of the US dollar, leading to increased gold reserves by central banks globally [1] Group 2: Category Differentiation - While the sales volume of weight-based gold products may face pressure, fixed-price investment gold and diamond-studded products are expected to benefit from rising gold prices, accelerating terminal sales [2] - Brands with a higher sales contribution from fixed-price, diamond-studded, and investment gold categories are projected to show better sales growth by Q1 2025 [2] Group 3: Channel Expansion - The expansion of channel networks is crucial for supporting performance, with new store openings and terminal sales driving wholesale shipment volumes [3] - The company anticipates steady net growth in channel expansion in 2024, particularly for brands with a high proportion of sales from weight-based gold and investment gold [3] - The gold jewelry sector is characterized by low valuations and strong domestic demand, with expectations of a recovery in same-store sales boosting valuations [3]