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洽洽食品(002557):春节错期短期业绩承压 经营改善可期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-24 12:38
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 849 million yuan, up 5.82% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 2.374 billion yuan, a 1.99% increase year-on-year, but a significant drop in net profit by 24.79% to 223 million yuan [1] - The first quarter of 2025 experienced a revenue decline of 13.76% to 1.571 billion yuan and a drastic net profit decrease of 67.88% to 77 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from sunflower seeds reached 4.382 billion yuan, a 2.60% increase, while nuts generated 1.924 billion yuan, up 9.74% [2] - Direct sales channels saw a revenue increase of 38.29% to 1.462 billion yuan, driven by rapid growth in the snack wholesale channel [2] - E-commerce revenue was 779 million yuan, growing by 8.86%, and overseas markets contributed 569 million yuan, a 10.28% increase [2] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 25.83%, down 3.46 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a further decline to 19.47%, down 10.97 percentage points [2] - The expense ratio for Q4 2024 was 13.51%, up 0.99 percentage points, with selling expenses at 9.83% and management expenses at 3.54% [3] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 9.41%, down 3.35 percentage points, and for Q1 2025, it dropped to 4.92%, down 8.28 percentage points [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on product innovation, launching new flavors and products, including a first brand for sunflower seeds and various nut products [4] - The digital service network expanded to 490,000 terminals, an increase of 170,000 year-on-year, with a focus on new channels like membership stores and e-commerce [4] - The company is deepening its presence in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Canada, with successful entry into Costco [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.318 billion, 8.001 billion, and 8.773 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.62%, 9.34%, and 9.65% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 850 million, 914 million, and 970 million yuan, with growth rates of 0.11%, 7.48%, and 6.16% [4] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 15.4, 14.3, and 13.5 times [4]