Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the short - term fundamentals have returned. The subsequent focus is on the production reduction intensity. After the anti - involution meeting, it's uncertain whether there will be speculation on soda ash. It's recommended to buy on dips for the soda ash main contract, while being aware of operational risks [2]. - For glass, although the current price is relatively high, if it drops to around 1150 yuan, it will reach a reasonable price range. There is no short - term upward driving force. It's also recommended to buy on dips for the glass main contract, while being aware of operational risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1383276 yuan/ton (daily), down 6; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1156 yuan/ton (daily), down 3. The soda ash - glass price difference is 150 yuan/ton (daily), down 3 [2]. - The position of the soda ash main contract is 17323 hands (daily), down 6; the position of the glass main contract is 1208724 hands (daily), up 10621. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 345765, down 411; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 264874, down 12417 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash are 9073 tons (daily), down 1181; the exchange warehouse receipts of glass are 2188 tons (daily), down 200. The price difference between the September and January contracts of soda ash is - 98, up 2; the price difference between the September and January contracts of glass is - 173, down 8 [2]. - The basis of soda ash is - 79 yuan/ton (daily), up 19; the basis of glass is - 82, up 30 [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1230 yuan/ton (daily), down 30; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged. The price of East China light soda ash is 1265 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1220 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1084 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1090 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2]. c. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 87.32% (weekly), up 1.91; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34% (weekly), up 2.34 [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass is 15.96 million tons/year (weekly), unchanged; the number of in - production glass production lines is 223 (weekly), unchanged [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 189.73 million tons (weekly), up 0.35; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy cases (weekly), up 157.9 [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of newly - started real estate area is 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68; the cumulative value of completed real estate area is 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 [2]. e. Industry News - A series of news including the situation of 70 - city housing prices in July, policy - related information from the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the research on the 24 - hour trading mechanism by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. f. Supply - demand Analysis - **Soda ash**: On the supply side, the domestic soda ash operating rate and output have increased. Due to high profits last week, maintenance was less than expected, but as profits decline, overall output is expected to decrease. The market supply is still abundant in the short term. On the demand side, the number of cold - repaired glass production lines remains unchanged, and the glass output is at a low level. Photovoltaic glass has recovered, driving some demand [2]. - **Glass**: On the supply side, the number of cold - repaired glass production lines remains unchanged, and the output is at a low level. Profits are starting to decline due to the impact of high - temperature weather on real estate construction demand. On the demand side, the real estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders have increased slightly, and procurement is mainly for刚需. The growth of the automotive industry has weakened, and the market has the expectation of inventory replenishment as the peak season approaches [2].