陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 多重利空共振， 玻璃持续探底 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2025/11/22 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力 煤、天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 周度评估及策略推荐 | 玻璃基本面评估 | 估值 | | | | 驱动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 成本利润 | 产量 | 需求 | 玻璃库存 | 房地产 | | 数据 | 101 | 天然气：-206.84 煤炭：25.79 石油焦：8.52 | 111.02万吨 | 深加工订单：9.9日 | 6330.3万重箱 | ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 | 品种 | 合约 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | 现货价格 | 基差（未折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/21 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3053 | 3057 | 4 | 0 | 3220 | 163 | | 热卷 | HC2601 | 3256 | 3270 | 14 | 0 | 3270 | 0 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 773 | 786 | 13 | 2 | 807 | 22 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1670 | 1615 | -55 | -3 | 1770 | 156 | | 焦煤 | JM2601 | 1192 | 1103 | -89 | -7 | 1530 | 427 | | 玻璃 | FG601 | 1032 | 987 | -45 | -4 | 1120 | 133 | | 纯碱 | SA601 | 1226 | 1170 | -56 | -5 | 126 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped 46.24 points, a decline of -1.81%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and silver, with the crude oil variety index falling -2.63% and contributing -0.43%, and the silver variety index falling -5.62% and contributing -0.34% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 66.82 points, a -1.9% decline. The most influential varieties were crude oil and soda ash, with the crude oil variety index contributing -0.46% and the soda ash variety index contributing -0.19% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index fell 41.52 points, a -0.64% decline. The most influential variety was nickel, contributing -0.28% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index dropped 37.08 points, a -2.36% decline. The most influential variety was crude oil, contributing -0.66% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index declined by 16.47 points, a -1.55% drop. The most influential variety was live pigs, contributing -0.55% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Points Change | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCl | 2502.56 | 2548.80 | -46.24 | -1.81% | 2548.80 | 2502.56 | 46.24 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1528.34 | 1593.22 | -64.87 | -4.07% | 1593.22 | 1523.63 | 69.59 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3456.21 | 3523.03 | -66.82 | -1.90% | 3531.97 | 3456.21 | 75.76 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6404.75 | 6446.27 | -41.52 | -0.64% | 6497.29 | 6404.75 | 92.54 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1536.98 | 1574.06 | -37.08 | -2.36% | 1576.32 | 1536.98 | 39.35 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1733.12 | 1759.79 | -26.67 | -1.52% | 1763.47 | 1733.12 | 30.35 | | Black Index NHFI | 2482.40 | 2488.63 | -6.23 | -0.25% | 2531.04 | 2482.40 | 48.64 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1045.84 | 1062.32 | -16.47 | -1.55% | 1062.32 | 1045.84 | 16.47 | | Nanhua Comprehensive New Consumption NHCIMi | 1158.20 | 1175.38 | -17.18 | -1.46% | 1182.55 | 1158.20 | 24.35 | | Energy Consumption NHEI | 992.08 | 1019.23 | -27.15 | -2.66% | 1023.40 | 992.08 | 31.32 | | Petrochemical Ammonia NHPCI | 875.55 | 885.60 | -10.05 | -1.13% | 887.30 | 875.55 | 11.75 | | Chlor - alkali Engineering Equipment MHCCI | 904.67 | 922.93 | -18.25 | -1.98% | 922.93 | 904.67 | 18.25 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1045.83 | 1049.97 | -4.15 | -0.39% | 1071.42 | 1045.83 | 25.59 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 687.69 | 696.93 | -9.24 | -1.33% | 702.74 | 686.94 | 15.80 | | Oilseeds Index NHOOl | 1233.00 | 1253.02 | -20.02 | -1.60% | 1253.02 | 1233.00 | 20.02 | | Economic Crops Consumption NHAECI | 906.22 | 916.59 | -10.37 | -1.13% | 916.59 | 906.22 | 10.37 | [3] 3.2. Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data The report provides data on the relative strength arbitrage of Nanhua variety indices, including the present value, previous value, change, and ranking of various index ratios such as the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index, the ratio of the industrial products index to the composite index, etc. [9] 3.3. Nanhua Sector Index Weekly Data - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties were crude oil, soda ash, etc. The index closed at 3456.21 this week, down 1.90% from last week. There were 21 commodities in total, with 3 rising and 17 falling [14]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: The most influential varieties were nickel, copper, etc. The index closed at 6404.75 this week, down 0.64% from last week. There were 13 commodities in total, with 3 rising and 10 falling [14]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: The most influential varieties were crude oil, soda ash, etc. The index closed at 1536.98 this week, down 2.36% from last week. There were 20 commodities in total, with 5 rising and 15 falling [14]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: The most influential varieties were live pigs, soybean meal, etc. The index closed at 1045.84 this week, down 1.55% from last week. There were 13 commodities in total [14]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: The most influential varieties were coke, manganese silicon, etc. The index closed at 2482.40 this week, down 0.25% from last week [15]. - **Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index**: The most influential varieties were zinc, copper, etc. The index closed at 1733.12 this week, down 1.52% from last week [15]. 3.4. Contribution of Each Variety to Index Fluctuations The report shows the contribution of the daily fluctuations of each futures variety to the index fluctuations, as well as the average weekly open interest,环比增幅, and open interest ratio of each futures variety [17].

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]

弘业纯碱周报 2025.11.21 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 ➢ 供给方面：周内国内纯碱产量72.08吨，环比下降1.85万吨，跌幅2.50%。纯碱综合产能利用率82.68%，上周84.80%，环比下降2.12%。近期，部分企业设备问题，导致产 量下降。 纯碱行情研判 ➢ 市场概况：本周纯碱期货价格震荡偏弱，主力合约SA601收盘报1,170元/吨，周内小幅上涨0.09%，但远月合约持续贴水，市场情绪受制于供需宽松格局。现货端价格 重碱区域分化，重碱承压，稳中趋弱，库存延续去化但绝对水平仍处高位，行业利润承压，整体基本面未现根本性改善。短期来看，装置检修与库存下降提供一定支撑，但 远期新增产能释放预期未消，叠加玻璃行业持续低迷，重碱需求缺乏弹性，供需过剩格局未改。价格运行或延续"震荡偏弱、底部震荡"格局。 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 纯碱1-5月差 月差 01合约 05合约 ➢ 核心观点： ➢ 本周主力合约SA601周内微涨0.09%，期货价格主要由成本支撑（ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - For soda ash, the current week's开工率 is 82.68%, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous value; the产量 is 72.09 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 1.83 from the previous value; the重质产量 is 39.62, a decrease of 1.47 from the previous value; the轻质产量 is 32.47, a decrease of 0.36 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the current week's开工率 is 74.854%, a decrease of 0.146% from the previous value; the产线条数 remains 222; the产量 is 111.0195 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 0.375 from the previous value [1]. Inventory - For soda ash, the厂内库存 is 164.44 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), a decrease of 6.29 from the previous value; the重质库存 is 88.73, a decrease of 1.98 from the previous value; the轻质库存 is 75.71, a decrease of 4.31 from the previous value; the库存可用天数 is 13.63 days, a decrease of 0.53 days from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the库存 is 6330.3 (unit not specified, presumably in a certain quantity), an increase of 5.6 from the previous value; the库存可用天数 remains 27.5 days [1]. Profit - For soda ash, the氨碱法毛利 is -38.5 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 15 from the previous value; the联产法毛利 is -153.5 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), an increase of 28.5 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the天然气利润 is -206.84 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 19.14 from the previous value; the石油焦利润 is 8.52 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 24 from the previous value; the煤制气利润 is 25.79 (unit not specified, presumably in yuan/ton), a decrease of 25.47 from the previous value [1]. Basis & Spread - For soda ash, the基差 is -30, an increase of 15 from the previous value; the 1 - 5价差 is 74, an increase of 8 from the previous value; the纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 169, a decrease of 14 from the previous value; the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 113, a decrease of 19 from the previous value [1]. - For glass, the基差 is 81, an increase of 33 from the previous value; the 1 - 5价差 is 130, an increase of 13 from the previous value [1].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，主力01合约收盘价1665元/吨，日环比持平。现货市 到100%以上。 度招标价格 步公布，目前 收到24家投 ，东海 最低价 | 坚挺 震荡 | | | 场继续偏强运行，主流地区现货价格多数仍有10~20元/吨的上调，山东、河南地区 | | | | 市场价格分别为1640元/吨，1630元/吨，日环比分别上调10元/吨、持平。基本面来 | | | | 看，尿素供应水平日内稳定，行业日产量昨日继续维持在20.25万吨。需求跟进情绪 | | | | 进一步放缓，昨日主流地区现货产销率回 至20% 90%区间，仅个别地区能够达 | | | | CFR418.40 元/吨，较上一 有所提升。中国货源能 参与仍存不确定性，后续继 | | | | 续关注印标量价结 。整体来看，国 市场及印标扰动仍存，预计尿素期货盘面坚 | | | | 挺震荡为主，关注现货成交情 、印标及国 市场动 。 | | | 纯碱 | 周四纯碱期货价格 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘消息扰动，油价下挫。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国合作制定 | | 原油 | | 和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，原油供 | | | | 给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地 | | | | 缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 成本支撑转弱，10 月进口量持稳。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口资源集 | | L | | 中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 5 周下滑，11 月下旬后棚膜旺 | | | 空头盘整 | 季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油价中期仍存 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are advised for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum is for long - position reduction; nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch [1][20][23][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in a low - level sideways trend; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; red dates are expected to be in a slightly weak sideways trend [1][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are under pressure for rebound; eggs have limited upside potential; corn is in a bottom - building sideways trend; soybean meal is in a range - bound trend; oils and fats are in a weak adjustment [1][40][43][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It analyzes factors such as economic data, policy expectations, production, consumption, and inventory levels to predict price trends and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: They are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and are long - term bullish. With market hotspots rotating quickly and no clear main line, factors like US employment data and policy expectations affect the market. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. After previous trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term trading is influenced by news, economic data, and policy expectations, while long - term trading awaits signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a sideways trend. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory, with low purchasing willingness from various parties [7][8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. The futures price has fallen below certain cost levels, and in the short - term, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, with steel prices likely to be in a low - level sideways trend [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The main contract's position has reached a new high, and the market is weak due to factors such as unchanged supply, slowdown in restocking, and weakening demand. There is a risk of further demand decline and delivery pressure in the near - term [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level sideways trend. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and factors such as US government policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. Although there is long - term potential, short - term risks exist, and range trading or waiting and watching is advised [11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade sideways. Alumina production has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply and demand are balanced. With the approach of the off - season and other factors, the price is likely to be range - bound [12] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies. Indonesia's policy adjustment may affect supply, and there is an overall surplus in the nickel market, with different trends in various nickel products [16] - **Tin**: It is for cautious range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak, but low overseas inventory provides some support [17] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. The US government's policy and Fed's interest - rate expectations affect the prices, and there is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates in Yichun and downstream production schedules [20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports are the main factors, and attention should be paid to cost, policy, and inventory changes [20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High inventory in the alumina industry exerts pressure on the caustic soda spot market, and attention should be paid to the verification of production - reduction expectations [23] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade sideways. Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to a balanced market, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and production schedules [24][25] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways, with support at the 15000 level. Cost support and inventory pressure coexist, and the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has some fluctuations [26] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade sideways. High supply, increasing demand in some sectors, and high inventory limit the upward potential of prices [28] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade sideways. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - level changes and production schedules [29] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. Cost compression, increasing supply, and weakening demand lead to a potential expansion of the supply - demand gap [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch. Supply is expected to contract, and cost support is strong, with limited downward space for the price [34][35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, and downstream consumption is weak [35] - **PTA**: It is in a low - level sideways trend. Supply is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is affected by factors such as oil prices and cost [35][37] - **Apples**: They are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend. With a decline in both production and quality, prices are likely to remain strong [37] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and prices are slightly loosening [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are under pressure for rebound. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as secondary fattening and demand, and long - term supply remains high [40] - **Eggs**: They have limited upside potential. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is stable. In the long - term, supply pressure may gradually ease [43] - **Corn**: It is in a bottom - building sideways trend. Short - term price is affected by new - grain listing, and long - term supply - demand is relatively balanced with some pressure on the upside [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a range - bound trend. US soybean supply - demand and domestic buying and selling affect the price, and range trading or basis pricing is recommended [45] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a weak adjustment. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and short - term adjustment risks exist, with long - term potential for wide - range fluctuations [46][51]