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瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250821
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 10:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the short - term fundamentals have returned. The subsequent focus is on the production reduction intensity. After the anti - involution meeting, it's uncertain whether there will be speculation on soda ash. It's recommended to buy on dips for the soda ash main contract, while being aware of operational risks [2]. - For glass, although the current price is relatively high, if it drops to around 1150 yuan, it will reach a reasonable price range. There is no short - term upward driving force. It's also recommended to buy on dips for the glass main contract, while being aware of operational risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1383276 yuan/ton (daily), down 6; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1156 yuan/ton (daily), down 3. The soda ash - glass price difference is 150 yuan/ton (daily), down 3 [2]. - The position of the soda ash main contract is 17323 hands (daily), down 6; the position of the glass main contract is 1208724 hands (daily), up 10621. The net position of the top 20 in soda ash is - 345765, down 411; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 264874, down 12417 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash are 9073 tons (daily), down 1181; the exchange warehouse receipts of glass are 2188 tons (daily), down 200. The price difference between the September and January contracts of soda ash is - 98, up 2; the price difference between the September and January contracts of glass is - 173, down 8 [2]. - The basis of soda ash is - 79 yuan/ton (daily), up 19; the basis of glass is - 82, up 30 [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1230 yuan/ton (daily), down 30; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged. The price of East China light soda ash is 1265 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1220 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1084 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1090 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2]. c. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 87.32% (weekly), up 1.91; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34% (weekly), up 2.34 [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass is 15.96 million tons/year (weekly), unchanged; the number of in - production glass production lines is 223 (weekly), unchanged [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 189.73 million tons (weekly), up 0.35; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy cases (weekly), up 157.9 [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of newly - started real estate area is 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68; the cumulative value of completed real estate area is 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 [2]. e. Industry News - A series of news including the situation of 70 - city housing prices in July, policy - related information from the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the research on the 24 - hour trading mechanism by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. f. Supply - demand Analysis - **Soda ash**: On the supply side, the domestic soda ash operating rate and output have increased. Due to high profits last week, maintenance was less than expected, but as profits decline, overall output is expected to decrease. The market supply is still abundant in the short term. On the demand side, the number of cold - repaired glass production lines remains unchanged, and the glass output is at a low level. Photovoltaic glass has recovered, driving some demand [2]. - **Glass**: On the supply side, the number of cold - repaired glass production lines remains unchanged, and the output is at a low level. Profits are starting to decline due to the impact of high - temperature weather on real estate construction demand. On the demand side, the real estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders have increased slightly, and procurement is mainly for刚需. The growth of the automotive industry has weakened, and the market has the expectation of inventory replenishment as the peak season approaches [2].
申银万国期货早间策略-20250821
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose and the market is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, with a 90 - day extension of the suspension of Sino - US tariffs and an increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which are dominated by technology - growth stocks, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes, which are dominated by dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different periods increased, with increases of 49.00, 46.80, 49.60, and 50.80 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 90137.00, and the open interest increased by 4297.00. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 4.80 to - 8.60 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different periods also rose, with increases of 30.40, 30.60, 29.60, and 29.00 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 45450.00, and the open interest of the current - month and next - month contracts increased, while that of the next - quarter and far - quarter contracts decreased. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from 0.20 to 0.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different periods increased significantly, with increases of 92.40, 98.00, 94.20, and 103.20 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 77339.00, and the open interest increased in all periods. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 43.40 to - 37.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different periods rose, with increases of 88.60, 93.60, 98.40, and 106.60 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 196109.00, and the open interest increased in all periods. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 50.80 to - 47.80 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The SSE 50 index increased by 1.23%, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.14%, the CSI 500 index increased by 1.09%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.86%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index showed different degrees of change [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the information technology industry had the highest increase of 2.51%, followed by optional consumption (1.36%), raw materials (1.35%), etc., while the public utilities industry had the lowest increase of 0.16% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract relative to the CSI 300 index changed from - 7.17 to - 1.40, and the basis of the IH current - month contract relative to the SSE 50 index changed from 2.98 to 4.21 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.23% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.17%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 1.51%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.24%, and the DAX index decreased by 0.60% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that child - rearing subsidies are exempt from personal income tax starting from January 1, 2025. The new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. Premier Li Qiang emphasized promoting the quality improvement and upgrading of the biomedical industry, and the State Council General Office proposed a classified and hierarchical approach to implement existing PPP projects [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Some platform companies have reported basic information as required, and the tax department will conduct publicity, guidance, and interviews for those that have not. The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to introduce new regulations on anti - monopoly in the public utilities sector. Multiple rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, Jilin and other places have lowered deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points, while many banks have launched large - denomination certificate of deposit products with an annual interest rate of over 2%. In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, a 4.9% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year decrease, with the inventory level below the warning line but above the reasonable range [2]
育儿补贴免征个税;美联储会议纪要:同意维持利率不变丨盘前情报
Market Overview - On August 20, the A-share market saw a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all reaching new highs for the year. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets had a total trading volume of 2.41 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking six consecutive days of over 2 trillion yuan in trading volume. Over 3,600 stocks rose in the market [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.04% to 3766.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.89% to 11926.74 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.23% to 2607.65 points [3] Sector Performance - Chip stocks surged in the afternoon, while consumer stocks such as liquor rebounded. Consumer electronics also showed active performance. Conversely, high-priced stocks collectively fell, with sectors like film, chemical pharmaceuticals, CRO, and vitamins experiencing declines. The top-performing sectors included liquor, semiconductors, AI glasses, and minor metals, while the worst-performing sectors were film, chemical pharmaceuticals, CRO, and vitamins [2] International Market - In the U.S. stock market on August 20, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 16.04 points (0.04%) to 44938.31 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 15.59 points (0.24%) to 6395.78 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 142.09 points (0.67%) to 21172.86 points [4][6] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 index increased by 98.92 points (1.08%) to 9288.14 points, while the CAC 40 index in France fell by 6.05 points (0.08%) to 7973.03 points, and the DAX index in Germany decreased by 146.10 points (0.60%) to 24276.97 points [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose on August 20, with light crude oil futures for September delivery increasing by $0.86 (1.38%) to $63.21 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rising by $1.05 (1.60%) to $66.84 per barrel [5] Automotive Market - According to the China Passenger Car Association, from August 1 to 17, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 866,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 13.611 million units, up 10% year-on-year. The retail sales of new energy vehicles during the same period were 502,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9% [11] Financial Regulations - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has proposed that the proportion of controlling mergers and acquisitions loans should not exceed 70% of the transaction price, while equity funds must account for at least 30%. This aims to mitigate high-leverage merger financing risks [8] Company Announcements - Muyuan Foods reported a net profit growth of 1170% year-on-year for the first half of the year, while Weicai Technology saw a net profit increase of 831% year-on-year. Tianwei Foods is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [14]
中原期货晨会纪要-20250821
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 00:40
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows complex trends across various sectors including agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and options - finance. Different factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events influence the prices and trading strategies of different products [7][11][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the exemption of personal income tax on child - rearing subsidies starting from January 1, 2025 [7]. - China's new - period LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5%, in line with market expectations [7]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes revealed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were disagreements on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [7]. - Trump called on Fed理事Cook to resign, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA director accused Cook of mortgage fraud [8]. - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of stability, development, ecology, and border - strengthening in Tibet and the construction of major projects [8]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed promoting the upgrading of the biomedical industry [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a round - table meeting with foreign - funded enterprises in the Pearl River Delta [8]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce the "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to boost industrial transformation [9]. - In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, down 4.9% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year, with inventory below the warning line but above the reasonable range [9]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: On August 20, the sugar main contract closed at 5676 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation. Brazil's production decline provided support, but concentrated imports pressured the spot market. The domestic inventory pressure is light, but the de - stocking process is slow. The price is expected to oscillate, with key support at 5650 yuan [11]. - Corn: On August 20, the corn main contract closed at 2170 yuan/ton, breaking through the previous support at 2180 yuan. New grain supply pressure and import increases affected the market. Feed consumption was suppressed, but deep - processing profits improved. A bearish operation is recommended, with new support at around 2140 yuan [11]. - Live Pigs: The national live - pig price was stable. Supply - side resistance to price drops and improved demand due to cooler weather led to a stable - to - rising price in the short - term. However, the futures market showed a bearish trend [11]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price was stable. High egg - laying hen inventory, large cold - storage stocks, and increased small - sized egg supply weakened the price increase momentum. A strategy of shorting on rebounds and inter - month arbitrage is recommended [11]. - Cotton: The international cotton market has sufficient supply. In the domestic market, the approaching new - flower listing may increase supply, while the demand in the cotton yarn market is improving. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended as the price showed a weak oscillation [11][13]. 2.2 Energy - Chemical Products - Urea: The domestic urea price increased significantly, but downstream follow - up enthusiasm weakened. The industry's daily output was 19.52 tons, and inventories were rising. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, but the impact of environmental policies and high finished - product inventory need to be monitored. Pay attention to India's tender and export policies [15]. - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda in Shandong showed an upward trend. With the approaching peak demand season, a bullish strategy on dips for the 2511 contract is recommended [15]. - Coking Coal: The spot prices of coking coal and coke showed some fluctuations. The steel - coke game continued, and the high iron - water output provided support. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate [16]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price continued to oscillate due to a lack of new macro - drivers and increased inventory. The aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level, waiting for the demand performance in the peak season [18][20]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina increased, and the demand was relatively stable. The spot price was weak, and the 2601 contract was running weakly. Attention should be paid to bauxite supply disruptions [20]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The spot market trading was average, and inventory data was mixed. Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [20]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of ferroalloys showed a downward trend with a slowdown in decline. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and risk control is recommended for hedging and speculation [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate dropped sharply, breaking through the key support level. Although cost support increased, supply concerns were alleviated. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, focusing on the implementation of production - cut policies in Jiangxi [20][22]. 2.4 Options - Finance - Options: On August 20, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume of stock - index options increased. Different options showed various changes in PCR and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on inter - variety arbitrage, and volatility investors can short volatility [24]. - Stock Indices: The A - share market showed a volatile trend. With the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10 - year high, investors' sentiment fluctuated. Different investment strategies are recommended for different types of investors, and a bullish view on the market is maintained [25][26][27].
官方明确:育儿补贴免征个人所得税
二、卫生健康部门与财政部门、税务部门建立信息共享机制。县级卫生健康部门按规定为申领补贴的人 员办理个人所得税免税申报。 三、本公告自2025年1月1日起施行。 一、对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税。 (原标题:官方明确:育儿补贴免征个人所得税) 财政部、税务总局今日发布公告称,对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税。公告如 下: ...
事关育儿补贴,两部门最新明确!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 10:15
财政部 、税务总局日前发布公告,对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税。公告如 下: 中山发布编辑部 对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税。 卫生健康部门与财政部门、税务部门建立信息共享机制。县级卫生健康部门按规定为申领补贴的 人员办理个人所得税免税申报。 本公告自2025年1月1日起施行。 编辑:邹岳廷 美编:耿小婷 执行总编辑:高明国 总编辑:李华炎 素材来源:央视新闻 中山发布 ...
财政部:对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-20 09:10
每经AI快讯,8月20日,财政部公告,对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税。卫生 健康部门与财政部门、税务部门建立信息共享机制。县级卫生健康部门按规定为申领补贴的人员办理个 人所得税免税申报。本公告自2025年1月1日起施行。 ...