Group 1 - Global stock market indices reached all-time highs due to easing geopolitical tensions and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Asian stock index futures rose across the board, following a 0.8% increase in the S&P 500 and a 0.9% rise in the Nasdaq 100, contributing to the MSCI global index reaching a new high [1] - The U.S. Treasury market strengthened as traders increased bets on rate cuts, with the interest rate swap market fully pricing in two cuts this year and a third cut being anticipated [1] Group 2 - U.S. economic data reinforced expectations for policy easing, with Q1 consumer spending growth hitting a pandemic-era low and GDP annualized growth rate revised down to -0.5% [4] - Despite a decrease in initial jobless claims, continuing claims rose to the highest level since 2021, indicating labor market challenges [4] - The U.S. dollar index fell alongside U.S. Treasury yields, while emerging market currencies rose for the third consecutive day [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve officials emphasized the need for more time to assess whether tariff-induced price increases would lead to sustained inflation [6] - San Francisco Fed President Daly acknowledged evidence suggesting tariffs may not cause widespread persistent inflation, keeping an open stance on potential rate cuts in the fall [7] - Economists expect the core PCE price index to show only a slight increase of 0.1% in May, marking the mildest performance in three years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The investment bank Panmure Liberum suggests that if Iran retaliates against attacks on its nuclear facilities without closing the Strait of Hormuz, the stock market may experience an initial decline of approximately 5%-10%. However, if Iran closes the Strait, a significant inflation shock could occur, potentially leading to a stock market drop of 10% to 20% [1]. Group 1 - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, a severe stagflation shock similar to that of 2022 is expected [1]. - The bank indicates that the inflation impact from closing the Strait would be substantial but not enough to derail the markets and economies of the US, UK, and Eurozone in the long term [1]. - A potential new bear market could emerge if trade tensions escalate again in early July [1].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Rehn warns that the ongoing Middle East crisis poses a risk of stagflation for the Eurozone [1] Group 1 - The Eurozone may face stagflation if the Middle East crisis continues [1]