关于市场恢复的速度，目前机构投资者的预期普遍偏向审慎乐观。NCE 平台表示，尽管现货 ETF 的流 入情况有所改善，但在经历大幅回撤后，市场情绪的修复通常需要三到六个月的"冷静期"。V 型反转的 概率在当前环境下较低，更多的将是基于宽幅区间的结构性整理。这种行情虽然缺乏爆发力，但对于长 期投资者而言，却是降低持仓成本、进行战略性配置的良机。 综上所述，数字资产市场正处于从"寒冬"向"早春"过渡的阵痛期。投资者应保持耐心，密切关注 ETF 的流入规模以及全球宏观政策对风险资产定价的影响。随着抛售压力的逐步出清，市场的重心将缓慢上 移。在 2026 年余下的时间里，这种横盘整理将持续修复投资者的信心，直至新的利好催化剂出现。 NCE 平台建议，在震荡市中应重点关注 60000 美元关口的支撑力度，这是判断长期牛市趋势是否完好 的重要参考。 技术指标层面也释放出了明显的见底信号。NCE 平台认为，比特币的历史周线 RSI（相对强弱指数） 已进入极度超卖区域，这通常预示着激进的卖压正处于消退边缘。虽然市场仍可能反复测试 62000 美元 至 65000 美元的支撑区间，但只要全球宏观经济环境不发生系统性崩溃，这种震荡 ...

突然翻到我23年6月写的备忘录。沧海桑田，现在真的来到了熊市，这些项目也真的都归零了，不知还有没有机会复活，无限唏嘘。奇怪的是不记得那时候我为什么没写上ordi，可能是因为我当时还有不少ordi持仓？ https://t.co/9SMG6bRrtN ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that in a bear market, trading often leads to losses, while in a bull market, there is a risk of missing out on gains [1] - The current financial environment shows a balanced and slightly loose liquidity, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 113.5 billion yuan through reverse repos [3] - The interbank funding rates have decreased, with DR001 at approximately 1.26% and DR007 at around 1.43% [3] Group 2 - The stock market is showing weak performance, with financial data for January meeting expectations and interest rates fluctuating [5] - Recent developments in the US stock market have caused a decline, with AI advancements previously seen as beneficial now leading to caution among investors [6] - The bond market experienced volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield initially opening lower at 1.7675% before rising to around 1.78% [5][8]

Group 1 - The article highlights the general lack of awareness among investors regarding bond index funds compared to stock index funds, and introduces a free course on how to invest in bond index funds [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the differences between financing and investing in the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing that bull and bear markets present distinct opportunities and behavioral logics for market participants [6] - In a bear market, low market valuations and high dividend payouts create favorable conditions for investors to buy quality stocks, while founders and shareholders may find it less advantageous to sell shares [7] - For example, in 2024, the A-share market reached a low of 5.9 stars, with new IPO financing totaling 67.3 billion and total financing around 288 billion, while total dividends reached 2.4 trillion, indicating a dividend-focused market [7]

过去的熊市里总有个惯性思维就是熊市投一级 / 撸空投，但这一轮看来，有很多的范式转移和模式变化，空投被反撸的可能性也很高最近这个市场环境来说，个人会觉得更倾向于少动多看。第一，看是一定要看的，因为一旦流动性低，就会出现很多低流动性资产的 alpha 机会。第二，动是一定要少的，并且控制成本，偶尔动的话也要考虑效益最大化，在看的基础上操作之前跟大家聊过 base 生态已经有点盼头了，base 上的项目我也会多关注一些，o1 最近被 coinbase 奶得确实挺多的，现在 cb 新产品线官方的 launch partner 都是 o1，如果刷 base 的话可以拿 o1 来刷，一鱼多吃也是一种成本控制了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, is experiencing significant downward pressure due to bearish sentiment, with Bitcoin recently losing all gains since the end of 2024 following the U.S. presidential election [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin has dropped over 1% to $69,160, with a daily low of $68,666, while Ethereum has fallen over 4% to $2,018, hitting a low of $1,997 [1]. - Bitcoin is undergoing its longest monthly decline since 2018, despite expectations of a favorable regulatory environment under the new U.S. government [1][6]. - Ethereum has seen a larger decline than Bitcoin since a significant drop last October, remaining in a bearish structure after breaking below the $2,800 to $3,000 range [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior - The derivatives market for Bitcoin is showing bearish signals, with perpetual contract funding rates remaining below zero, indicating traders are positioning for further price declines [4]. - Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has decreased by approximately 51% from its peak in October, reflecting a lack of confidence in the recent price rebound [5]. - The implied volatility for Bitcoin has dropped from around 83% to approximately 60%, suggesting reduced expectations for short-term price fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - Significant capital outflows have been observed from both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with $7.9 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs and $3.2 billion from Ethereum ETFs since last October [6]. - Analysts are warning that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market, with some predicting a "death spiral" scenario that could lead to widespread liquidation in the crypto ecosystem [6][7]. - Despite the prevailing pessimism, some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, predicting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end, viewing current price movements as a confidence crisis rather than a fundamental issue [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current market for gold and silver is highly volatile, with significant fluctuations impacting investor sentiment and behavior [5][6][25]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent downturn in gold and silver prices has left many investors as casualties, with some struggling to recover from losses [6][15]. - The gold market is supported by strong fundamentals, including ongoing purchases by central banks and geopolitical tensions, which are likely to sustain a bullish trend [8][25]. - Silver, on the other hand, is expected to experience a divergence from gold, with its price influenced by industrial demand and economic conditions, leading to a potential bearish outlook [8][15]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current phase of gold and silver is identified as a long-term consolidation phase, which may last until early to mid-2026 unless there are significant changes in the fundamentals [11][14]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,820-$4,830 and $4,655, while resistance levels are noted at $5,090-$5,100 and $5,220-$5,240 [13][14]. - For silver, critical support is at the New Year low of $70-$71, with potential downside targets of $60-$62 if broken [20][17]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a mixed strategy of holding physical assets and engaging in short-term trading to maximize profits while managing risks [14][27]. - The outlook for silver suggests that high prices will not be sustainable, and investors should consider exiting positions at $85-$90 or above $100 [18][27]. - The oil market is projected to enter a bullish phase by 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions, with short-term targets set at $75-$80 and long-term at $100-$110 [20][22].

Most people went into Q4 assuming we would have this like massive blowoff top with an all season. And so that didn't happen. We had a new all-time high, but it was not really a massive blowoff top.I think from there people gave up. People have been selling. They're like, "All right, cycle's over." After you have about 3 months of selling in a bare market, usually you have a counter trend rally.So if you look at 2021, we had November, December, and January were all red months. And then in February and March, ...

责任编辑：陈平 2月5日，随着比特币价格在70000美元中段持续盘整，市场情绪正经历严峻考验。FXGT认为，当前的 波动并非单纯的短期回调，链上数据展现出的参与度萎缩和现货需求匮乏，正释放出强烈的熊市警示信 号。在缺乏实质性买盘支撑的情况下，比特币在亚洲交易时段表现疲软，反映出投资者对于结构性流动 性收紧的深切忧虑。 从具体资金流向看，FXGT表示，此前作为牛市引擎的美国现货比特币ETF已由净买入转为净卖出，这 种机构层面的态度转变造成了显著的需求真空。此外，通过观察事实数据发现，自去年10月以来 Coinbase溢价持续维持负值，且稳定币龙头USDT的市值增长自2023年以来首次出现负增长。这些数据 共同指向一个事实：支撑加密资产上行的核心驱动力——即充裕的美元流动性和美国现货买盘——目前 正处于停滞甚至倒退的状态。 宏观层面的压力同样不容小觑。比特币目前表现出的属性更接近于高贝塔值风险资产，而非避险工具。 预测市场的数据显示，由于美国经济表现出超预期的韧性，交易员普遍押注美联储在4月会议上将维持 利率不变，降息预期的推迟进一步压制了风险资产的弹性。FXGT认为，在政治因素与宏观政策交织的 复杂背景下，市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has reached its lowest point since Trump's return to the White House, erasing gains accumulated since his election, with a decline of over 40% since its peak in October 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin dropped below $73,000, falling over $6,000 from its earlier high of $79,100, marking an 8% decline and hitting a low not seen since early November 2024 [1] - Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, experienced a sharper decline, falling below $2,110, a drop of over 10% from its earlier high of $2,350 [3] - Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has accumulated a decline of over 15%, with market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies reaching a low point [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in Bitcoin's price has been exacerbated by leveraged liquidations, with many traders attempting to buy the dip, leading to significant pressure on prices [6] - Following a major sell-off in October 2025, the cryptocurrency market has faced ongoing downward pressure, with a total of $19 billion in leveraged token bets wiped out [6] - While institutional holders remain steadfast, retail participation has decreased as major long-term Bitcoin holders have sold off billions in assets [6] Group 3: Altcoin Performance - Altcoins have significantly underperformed compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the MarketVector Digital Assets 100 Small-Cap Index dropping nearly 70% over the past year [7] - The approval of exchange-traded products for Bitcoin and Ethereum has not translated into similar performance for other cryptocurrencies, which have seen substantial outflows [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - The cryptocurrency market has been in a comprehensive winter since January 2025, akin to previous bear markets in 2018 and 2022 [7] - The current bear market may be nearing its end, with historical down cycles lasting about 13 months, suggesting a potential bottoming out in the coming weeks [7]