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我眼中的牛市和熊市
雪球· 2025-08-23 03:34
有人和我讲牛市行情来了要怎么样怎么样选股,比如2014年的牛市,垃圾股满天飞,后面到银行,券商,最后到大蓝筹,然后垃圾股开始跌,大 蓝筹还是上涨的,但我自己思考了一下不管是牛市,熊市我选择股票的投资逻辑还是一样的,没有什么变化。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 金哥777 来源:雪球 最近大盘越来越强,成交量越来越大,很多垃圾股暴涨,连洋河中报暴雷后股价还可以大涨,以前会认为有一两个跌停,亏得越多的公司股价反而 会暴涨,这难道是牛市来了嘛? 以前我认为买股票就是买公司的一小部分股权,就是合伙做生意,然后就想合伙做生意肯定想多分红,成长好也是为了以后高分红。但最近几年发 现这些常识性的东西,既然是属于另类,异类,可能整个市场占比不到百分之5,那百分之5认真研究公司基本面,了解商业模式,了解财务数据 的人可能只有那百分之5的十分之一,所以这市场能长期赚钱的人少之又少,我希望我自己努力成为那百分之1,目前我重仓的两个公司是藏格矿 业和紫金矿业。 关于藏格矿业的投资逻辑从2023年9月份开始买入到现在应该没什么变化,但 ...
不懂为什么还有人看空
集思录· 2025-08-18 14:15
Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives on the stock market, highlighting the ongoing debate between bullish and bearish sentiments among investors. It emphasizes that market dynamics are influenced by the actions and beliefs of both groups, leading to trading opportunities and price fluctuations [1][7][8]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Many technology stocks and innovative pharmaceuticals have seen significant performance increases, while consumer and new energy sectors have not yet reversed, remaining at low price levels [1] - The article questions the rationale behind bearish sentiments, suggesting that some investors may be overly focused on short-term index levels [1] - The concept of a bull market is described as a large-scale wealth transfer, where new investors often buy from those who are selling at market peaks [1] Group 2: Trading Strategies - A strategy of buying below 3000 points and selling above is mentioned, indicating a cautious approach rather than outright bearishness [3] - The article notes that market dynamics are not solely determined by loud voices or national sentiment but are influenced by fundamental and speculative factors [4][8] - The importance of having both bullish and bearish perspectives in the market is highlighted, as it creates the necessary conditions for trading [7][8] Group 3: Market Valuation - As of August 13, the median TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the market was reported at 85 times, indicating a potentially overvalued market [9] - The article references specific sectors, such as micro-cap stocks and banks, noting their performance trends and the divergence in stock price movements across different industries [10][11]
大摩分析师:美股新一轮牛市刚刚开启
财富FORTUNE· 2025-08-13 13:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, suggesting that it has been in a "rolling recession" for the past three years, but is now entering a new bull market phase, as indicated by recent market performance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley claims that the significant market sell-off in April marked the end of the bear market, and the current market is experiencing a healthy gradual rise rather than a sharp increase [1]. - The S&P 500 index has shown a V-shaped recovery, rising 30% since its April low, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 9% [1]. - Wilson predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 7,200 points by mid-2026, driven by strong earnings, AI applications, a weaker dollar, tax cuts, pent-up demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Wilson advises investors to buy on dips, emphasizing that the current bull market is still in its early stages [3]. - Despite the cautious approach of institutional investors during market downturns, retail investors continue to buy stocks, contributing to the market's rapid recovery [5]. - The article highlights the risks associated with the buy-the-dip strategy, as investors may end up buying at unfavorable prices if the market continues to decline [7].
为何牛市来了多数人还是赚不到钱?
雪球· 2025-08-06 09:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Chinese stock market in July, highlighting that A-shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks due to various factors, including government policies and market dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, major Chinese stock indices such as the Wind All A, CSI 300, and Hang Seng Index saw increases of +4.75%, +3.54%, and +2.91% respectively, indicating a stronger performance of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks [4]. - The article notes that small-cap stocks in A-shares showed stronger performance than large-cap stocks during this period [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing A-share Performance - The central government's "anti-involution" supply-side reform measures announced on July 1 are believed to have positively impacted investor sentiment, particularly in cyclical industries that are expected to recover [5]. - The high market activity and significant gains in individual stocks have improved risk appetite among investors, leading to increased market participation [5]. Group 3: Bull Market Dynamics - The article explores how bull markets form, emphasizing that economic improvement is not a prerequisite for a bull market; rather, market valuations and investor sentiment play crucial roles [8][14]. - Historical data shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) can reflect macroeconomic conditions, and past bull markets have occurred even during periods of negative PPI growth [9]. Group 4: Investor Behavior in Bull Markets - The article identifies common reasons why many investors fail to profit during bull markets, including selling stocks during market lows out of fear and missing out on subsequent gains [15][16]. - It highlights the psychological barriers and decision-making challenges investors face, such as fear of missing out and the difficulty in identifying the right stocks to buy [17][18]. Group 5: Current Market Strategy - The article suggests that the current market may be characterized as a structural bull market, with potential for cyclical recovery in certain sectors due to government policies [21]. - It advises investors to avoid perfectionism in their investment strategies and to focus on achieving reasonable returns rather than waiting for the perfect entry point [22].
帮主郑重:散户避坑指南!避开这5个,技术面才算入门!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-02 08:18
Group 1 - The article discusses common challenges faced by retail investors in technical analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding key indicators and market behavior [1][3] - It highlights that using only two indicators, moving averages and trading volume, can provide a clearer picture of market trends compared to relying on multiple complex indicators [3] - The article stresses the significance of identifying support and resistance levels based on historical trading volume rather than arbitrary price points [3][4] Group 2 - It addresses the common frustration of buying high and selling low, suggesting that true market movements can be confirmed by analyzing trading volume during breakouts or breakdowns [3][4] - The article advises against a one-size-fits-all approach to setting stop-loss and take-profit levels, recommending adjustments based on the investor's holding period and market volatility [4] - It concludes that technical analysis should adapt to market conditions, emphasizing the need for investors to understand the underlying market dynamics rather than relying solely on indicators [4]
X @杀破狼 WolfyXBT
杀破狼 WolfyXBT· 2025-07-29 12:42
Market Prediction - Bull market top date is predicted to be 2025/10/06 [1] - Bear market bottom date is predicted to be 2026/10/05 [1] - Approximately 69 days remain until the end of the bull market [1]
轰轰烈烈的大牛市是不是要开始了?
集思录· 2025-07-24 13:47
Core Viewpoint - The current market situation suggests a potential bull market, but caution is advised as corrections are likely to occur after initial gains [1][2][12]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Many investors are eager to enter the market, indicating a bullish sentiment, but the current position may require either increasing or decreasing holdings depending on market direction [1][2]. - The banking sector has seen significant gains, with bank stocks rising over 50%, contributing to overall index increases [18]. - Small-cap stocks have also experienced considerable trading activity and price increases due to ample liquidity in the market [18]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical analysis of Japan's Nikkei 225 index shows that while there were significant rebounds, they were often followed by downturns due to underlying economic issues such as bad debts and deflation [2][3]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown more stable long-term returns, benefiting from a healthy economic environment and technological advancements [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a general belief among investors that a bull market is underway, but many remain hesitant to commit large positions due to past market experiences and fears of further downturns [9][19]. - The current market behavior is characterized by slow, steady gains rather than explosive growth, leading to a cautious approach among investors [9][20]. Group 4: Sector Performance - Various sectors, including steel, coal, and photovoltaics, have seen a resurgence due to recent market dynamics, indicating a broad-based recovery [18]. - The construction materials sector has also benefited from significant investments, such as the 1.2 trillion yuan project in hydropower, which has positively impacted related industries [18].
熊市为啥有长有短?|投资小知识
银行螺丝钉· 2025-07-19 10:19
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation for families to optimize their wealth management and investment returns [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and inflation [1] - Diversification across various asset classes is highlighted as a key strategy to mitigate risks and enhance returns [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Specific companies within the financial services sector are noted for their innovative approaches to asset management, which could provide competitive advantages [1] - The article discusses the performance metrics of leading firms, indicating a trend of increased assets under management (AUM) and revenue growth in the past year [1]
X @何币
何币· 2025-07-18 12:28
Market Sentiment - The market suggests a bearish outlook, advising to consider shorting [1] - The market highlights the influence of key figures like "一姐" (Sister) during bear markets and CZ during bull markets [1] - The market emphasizes the dominance of Binance (币安) in shaping market trends [1]
牛市过去十年,总结的三大教训!
雪球· 2025-07-18 08:41
Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the lessons learned from the 2015 stock market crash in China, emphasizing the importance of risk management, market awareness, and the need for continuous learning in investment practices [4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Events and Historical Context - The article discusses the peak of the Chinese stock market at 5178 points on June 12, 2015, followed by a significant downturn where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 43% within 17 trading days [4]. - It highlights the massive IPO activities that led to a freezing of 6.7 trillion yuan in funds, marking a new high since the IPO restart in 2014 [4]. - The article notes the extreme volatility in the market post-crash, with multiple instances of "千股涨停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit up) and "千股跌停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit down) [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Strategies - The article advises against leveraging and financing in capital markets, citing that such practices often lead to significant losses during market downturns [5]. - It emphasizes the need for investors to respect the market and acknowledge their limitations, suggesting that many enter the market with unrealistic expectations [6]. - Continuous learning and experience accumulation are crucial for investors, as the market's nature requires adaptability and awareness of changing conditions [7]. Group 3: Personal Reflections and Lessons - The author shares personal anecdotes of individuals who suffered significant losses due to over-leveraging and heavy positions during the 2015 crash, illustrating the psychological impact of such experiences [5][6]. - The article stresses the importance of reflecting on past mistakes and learning from them to avoid repeating them in future market cycles [7]. - It concludes with a call for investors to focus on improving their understanding of market dynamics and to be patient, waiting for favorable conditions to invest [7].