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猫眼娱乐(01896):25年业绩受益于大盘回暖,演出与IP业务拓展新增长点
GF SECURITIES· 2026-03-31 12:29
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 5.69 and a fair value of HKD 7.08 [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.631 billion for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 564 million, showing a significant increase of 209.86% [7]. - The recovery of the film market has driven growth, with online entertainment ticketing revenue reaching RMB 2.294 billion, up 19.36% year-on-year. The company has also increased its investment in live performance business, with local performance GMV growing by 90% and stand-up comedy GMV by 70% [7]. - The company has a strong film distribution capability, having participated in the release of 55 domestic films and 18 imported films, with a record number of 48 films under its control for distribution [7]. - The forecast for 2026-2028 anticipates revenues of RMB 4.007 billion, RMB 4.425 billion, and RMB 4.810 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 484 million, RMB 582 million, and RMB 641 million [7]. Financial Summary - The company's main revenue is projected to decline by 14.2% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 13.5% in 2025, -13.5% in 2026, 10.4% in 2027, and 8.7% in 2028 [2][10]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be RMB 316 million, increasing to RMB 834 million in 2025, before declining to RMB 527 million in 2026 [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 310 million in 2024, rising to RMB 677 million in 2025, and then decreasing to RMB 484 million in 2026 [2]. - The company’s Non-GAAP EPS is expected to be RMB 0.27 in 2024, increasing to RMB 0.58 in 2025, and then decreasing to RMB 0.42 in 2026 [2].