1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the simultaneous decline of stocks and bonds continuing is low. This week, driven by government bond issuance, the real - sector may expand marginally, and the financial market may experience a brief respite [2][7][20]. - In 2026, the government's policy goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged. It is expected that the liability growth rate of the real sector will drop to around 8.0% by the end of 2026, and the liability growth rate of the government sector will drop to around 11.6% [2][16]. - In the context of the marginal convergence of the national balance sheet, the top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style judgment will receive more attention and favor [21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In February 2026, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.4%, and it is expected to drop to around 8.2% in March. The government's liability growth rate was 12.1% at the end of February, and is expected to drop to around 11.3% in March. It is recommended that investors control stock and bond positions, focus on short - term and monetary assets, and the equity style is expected to shift to value - dominance [2][16][17]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Last week, the net increase of government bonds was 1021 billion yuan, and this week it is planned to increase by 6688 billion yuan [3][17]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the one - year Treasury bond yield was 1.28% at the weekend. It is expected to cut interest rates by 10 basis points in 2026. The spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds has widened to 54 basis points [3][17]. - **Asset Side**: In January, the physical volume data improved. It is expected that from January to February, the real economy can at least maintain the stable trend of November - December 2025. The nominal economic growth target for 2026 is around 5.0% [5][18]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has entered a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which ended in the fourth quarter of 2024. The liability - side convergence has not ended but the space is limited. If the valuation of the US technology sector is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China. The risk preference may enter a range - bound state [6][19]. - Last week, the stock - bond market had a double - kill, the dividend index rose against the trend, the short - term bond yield continued to decline, and the long - term bond yield rose significantly. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness favored equities. This week, it is recommended to allocate 80% to the Shanghai 50 Index and 20% to the CSI 1000 Index [7][20]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking volume. Coal, power equipment, and other industries had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemicals, etc. had the largest declines [29]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of March 13, the top five crowded industries were power equipment, electronics, etc., and the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, etc. The trading volume of the whole A - share market decreased compared with last week [30][32]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, the PE (TTM) of coal, building decoration, etc. increased the most, while that of national defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemicals, etc. decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, etc. [35][36]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI rose in February. CCFI index increased. Internally, the second - hand housing price declined, and quantity indicators were mixed [40]. - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the second week of March, most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of March 13, the net asset value of active public equity funds increased compared with 2024Q4 [56]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly in industries such as banks, telecommunications, etc. [8][59].