后市重点关注三大变量：澳大利亚通胀与就业数据(决定加息节奏)、美联储政策与美国经济数据(影响美 元)、大宗商品价格(作用商品属性)，全球风险情绪与美澳利差也将阶段性影响走势。 美联储政策与美元强弱是关键外因。当前美联储立场分化，1月纪要鹰派但近期经济数据不一：2月CPI 超预期下行推升降息预期，核心通胀高企又制约降息空间，导致美元指数震荡偏弱(截至27日10时报 97.75，2025年11月下旬以来跌幅超9%)，间接支撑澳元。但若美国核心数据回暖、美联储鹰派强化，美 元或反弹压制澳元。 作为商品货币，澳元走势与大宗商品紧密相关。澳大利亚是铁矿石、铜等出口大国，近期大宗商品价格 稳定，油价、铜价小幅上涨托底澳元，与加息形成共振。但全球经济复苏不明朗，主要贸易伙伴需求承 压，或抑制大宗商品出口，拖累澳元，加剧汇价震荡。 2026年2月27日亚洲早盘，澳元兑美元(AUD/USD)高位窄幅震荡，目前交投于0.7103，日内微跌0.04% (开盘0.7111，高低点0.7111/0.7094)，多空僵持。今年以来澳元表现强势，累计涨幅超6%至近三年高 位，核心驱动力为澳央行加息与美联储降息预期博弈，叠加商品属性支撑，短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a steady upward trend against the US dollar (USD), driven primarily by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Australia, with economic data and commodity price fluctuations playing a secondary role [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The core anchor for the AUD/USD exchange rate is the policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1]. - Expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have risen to 87%, with officials signaling a more accommodative stance [1]. - In contrast, the RBA is maintaining stable policies due to persistent inflation, with the October CPI rising to 3.8% and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Economic Resilience and Concerns - The Australian economy exhibits a mix of resilience and concerns, with the manufacturing PMI rebounding to 51.6 in November, indicating expansion [1]. - Despite a lower GDP growth rate of 0.4% in Q3 compared to 0.6% in Q2, domestic demand and business confidence are countering growth pressures [1]. - However, there are risks associated with commodity exports, as global economic uncertainties may lead to a reduction of over 100 billion AUD in Australian commodity exports over the next four years [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The AUD/USD has formed an upward channel since hitting a low of 0.6280 in late October, with key moving averages indicating bullish signals [2]. - Short-term resistance levels are identified at 0.6600-0.6650, with support levels at 0.6550-0.6560 [2]. - There is a notable divergence in institutional forecasts for the AUD, with Morgan Stanley predicting a rise to 0.72 by the end of 2025, while others warn of potential downward pressure from RBA rate cuts in 2026 [2]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key upcoming events include the US PCE data on December 5, which could influence the AUD if it comes in below expectations [3]. - The RBA meeting on December 8-9 and the Federal Reserve meeting on December 13 are critical, as signals from these meetings could lead to a breakthrough in the AUD's resistance levels [3]. - Additionally, the manufacturing PMI from China and the inflation preview data from Australia for November are also important indicators to watch [3].