日线图技术分析显示，澳元兑美元正尝试突破下降通道形态，暗示可能从看跌转向看涨趋势。汇价目前 位于九日指数移动平均线(EMA)(0.6476)上方，表明短期价格动能增强。上行方面，澳元兑美元正在测 试0.6590附近(下降通道上轨与50日指数移动平均线0.6491交汇处)的即时阻力区域。若成功突破该关键 阻力带，将确认看涨趋势转换，推动汇价上探8月14日创下的月内高点0.6568，继而挑战7月24日创下的 九个月峰值0.6625。 周三（8月27日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元下跌，目前交投于0.64附近，截止北京时间11:57分，澳元/美元 报价0.6488，下跌0.05%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6491。澳洲联储公布的会议纪要显示，在本月 作出降息决定时，委员会认为未来一年内可能仍需进一步放宽货币政策。 至于具体的宽松节奏，将呈现数据依赖特征——既可能采取渐进方式，也可能在必要时加快步伐，关键 取决于经济数据的实际表现。该行在宽松政策上整体倾向于保持谨慎态度，其行动节奏与季度通胀数据 的发布密切相关。历史操作表明，澳洲联储倾向于仅在2月、5月和8月这些发布季度通胀数据的关键时 点后调整利率。基于这一模式，市 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, the highest increase in three years, against an expectation of 0.2%[1] - Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 3.3%, surpassing the expected 2.5%[1] - The Australian economy growth forecast for 2023 was downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that conditions for a rate cut are maturing, suggesting a potential 0.25% cut in September[2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced the cash rate by 0.25% to 3.6%, the lowest in two years, aligning with market expectations[2] - The RBA maintained inflation forecasts at 3% for this year and 2.9% for next year[2] Group 3: Currency Trends - Following the interest rate decision, the Australian dollar (AUD) briefly rose above 0.655 against the US dollar (USD) but later consolidated around 0.649[3] - The AUD is expected to fluctuate between 0.61 and 0.69 against the USD in the second half of the year[3] - If the AUD stabilizes above 0.645, it may present a buying opportunity[3]

大行晨報 - 澳元短線或再試年內高位 - 2025 年 8 月 14 日星島日報 / 頭條日報 https://www.stheadline.com/columnists/finance- property/3490120/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1- %E6%BE%B3%E5%85%83%E7%9F%AD%E7%B7%9A%E6%88%96%E5%86%8D%E8%A9%A6%E5%B9%B4 %E5%85%A7%E9%AB%98%E4%BD%8D%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against other currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar depreciated by 0.31% against the Japanese yen, closing at 147.38 yen, with a trading range of 148.17 to 147.09 yen during the day [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar [1]. - The British pound increased by 0.56% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar fell by 0.25% against the Swiss franc [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar increased by 0.32% [1]. - The US dollar experienced a slight decline of 0.08% against the Canadian dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.11% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone rose by 0.17% [1]. - The Danish krone increased by 0.26% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.28% [1].

Core Points - The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, rising by 0.71% to 149.52 yen, with a trading range of 147.81 to 149.53 yen during the day [1] - The release of US GDP data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference led to two waves of upward movement in the market [1] - The euro and British pound both declined against the yen, with the euro down 0.52% and the pound down 0.13% [1] Currency Movements - The euro fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.84% against the dollar [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar dropped by 1.15% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 1.00% [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Canadian dollar by 0.44% [1] Other Currency Trends - The Swedish krona declined by 1.47% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 1.18% [1] - The Danish krone fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the Polish zloty dropped by 1.14% [1]

Group 1 - The euro declined by 1.30% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1588 after a period of high volatility following a tariff agreement between the EU and the US [1] - The euro also fell against the British pound by 0.76%, against the Swiss franc by 0.24%, and against the Danish krone by 0.01%, while it rose against the Polish zloty by 0.36% [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.62% against the US dollar, while the US dollar appreciated by 1.07% against the Swiss franc [1] Group 2 - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.70% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar dropped by 0.86% [2] - The Swedish krona declined by 0.96% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 0.38% [2] - The Danish krone fell by 1.29% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty dropped by 1.65% [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Villeroy emphasizes the importance of maintaining an open attitude towards future monetary policy decisions, noting that the appreciation of the euro is having a significant dampening effect on inflation [1] Group 2 - Former President Trump states he will never advocate for a weaker dollar, while suggesting that Powell may be preparing for interest rate cuts [2] - Japan's trade negotiation representative indicates that only 1-2% of the $550 billion US-Japan agreement pertains to actual investments [2] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Australian dollar is likely to reach or exceed their year-end target of 0.67 [2] - Japan's Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu announces plans to continue adjusting the issuance of Japanese government bonds based on market conditions [2] - ECB Governing Council member Nagel asserts that a robust policy is appropriate amid uncertainty [2]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank suggests that the Australian dollar (AUD) is likely to reach or exceed their year-end target of 0.67, driven by increasing hedging activities from large funds which pose an upside risk to the AUD [1] Group 1 - The Australian dollar is projected to achieve or surpass the target of 0.67 by year-end [1] - Large fund hedging activities are contributing to the upward risk for the Australian dollar [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at 0.6573 against the US dollar, with a slight increase of 0.13%, as investors await key economic data including the second quarter CPI and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The preliminary PMI for July in Australia has risen, indicating accelerated economic activity across various sectors, which has improved the macroeconomic outlook [1] - The current annual CPI for June stands at 2.1%, nearing the lower limit of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) inflation target range of 2%-3%. A further slowdown in inflation could increase pressure on the RBA to ease monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates that the RBA will cut interest rates in mid-August and again in November, although RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has downplayed the significance of the June unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, suggesting a more hawkish stance than the market expects [1] - The Australian dollar is sensitive to trade relations, particularly with China, and upcoming manufacturing PMI data from China could impact demand for Australian raw materials, thereby influencing the AUD [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD trading range is between 0.6545 and 0.6585, with support levels at 0.6505-0.6455 and resistance around 0.66875. A potential technical correction may occur if the AUD touches the upper Bollinger Band [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the apparent prosperity of the U.S. economy, underlying structural vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly evident, particularly in the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market remains robust, with nearly 90% of job growth in recent years concentrated in government, leisure and hospitality, and healthcare/education sectors, while key growth sectors like technology, manufacturing, construction, and professional services are slowing down [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the short term, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in December if economic data weakens significantly [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potential exit from high interest rate policies, although it is not anticipated to cut rates on July 30, especially with active job creation and concerns over tariffs potentially driving prices up [2]. - Inflation signals are expected to emerge between July and September, with tariffs likely impacting CPI data, potentially leading to a month-on-month increase of 0.4% to 0.5% [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term, influenced by the Federal Reserve's stance and upcoming employment data, with potential upward movements against low-yield currencies [4][5]. - If the labor market shows resilience, the USD/JPY pair could rise to 150, while the USD/CHF may increase to 0.81, depending on risk appetite and ongoing arbitrage trading [4].