行情回顾 美元指数本周延续强势，整体大幅上涨，截至周四已连续四个交易日上涨，且周四突破99关口，创两个月新高。尽管降息预期升温，但政治不确定性与避险 需求支撑美元走强。截至发稿，美指报99.36。 黄金本周领涨全球市场。受降息预期与避险情绪推动，金价连创新高，周三突破4000关口后最高接近4060美元/盎司，随后有所回调。现货白银一度突破51 美元/盎司关口，为2011年以来首次。截至发稿，现货金银分别报3991美元/盎司和50.2美元/盎司。 非美货币方面，美元兑日元本周走势抢眼，整体大幅走高，周五一度突破153关口，创下八个月新高。受强美元压制，英镑、欧元、澳元兑美元本周均料将 录得下跌。 油价走势震荡，整体先涨后跌。供需博弈主导走势，库存增加压制涨势，以哈第一阶段停火落地，地缘紧张局势缓解对油价形成一定拖累。周五美盘，油价 加速下行。 美股走势分化。前半周科技股领涨创新高，后半周因获利回吐与避险升温震荡。AMD一度大涨逾30%，市值突破3800亿美元。 投行观点精选 花旗银行将未来三个月黄金的价格预期从3800美元/盎司上调至4000美元。 高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预期从4300美元/盎司上调至4 ...

市场目光正聚焦于即将公布的澳洲关键经济数据。根据日程安排，澳洲联储9月政策会议纪要将于下周 二公布，而下周四还将发布9月份就业数据。这些重要信息的披露，预计将为研判澳洲联储未来政策路 径提供更多线索，也可能成为打破当前汇价僵局的重要催化剂。 技术面显示，澳元对美元汇率继续局限于0.6520/0.6630的窄幅区间内运行，场观望情绪浓厚。分析师指 出，0.6520和0.6415水平构成近期重要支撑位，而0.6630和0.6707则形成关键技术阻力。美元后续走势将 继续成为影响澳元方向的关键因素。 日线图技术分析显示，澳元兑美元正向上升通道方向反弹，暗示看涨动能正在复苏。然而14日相对强弱 指数（RSI）仍低于50中性线，表明当前仍存在看空压力。 周五（10月10日）亚洲时段，得益于澳洲联储主席米歇尔·布洛克发表的谨慎货币政策声明，澳元/美元 走强，收复了前一交易日的部分失地，最新澳元兑美元汇率报0.6562，涨幅0.15%。 布洛克主席周五指出，服务业通胀仍具粘性。她表示第二季度通胀数据略超预期，但整体正朝着正确方 向发展。鉴于月度CPI数据的波动性，她强调需保持政策审慎，并补充说明劳动力市场虽仍偏紧，但可 能 ...

Markets this week have grappled with political turmoil in Japan and France alongside an ongoing U.S. government shutdown, all of which have done little to stoke confidence in investors, who have sought safety in assets such as gold. The yen has been whiplashed after conservative The Japanese "The increase in dollar/yen has been quite relentless, and it seems like nothing can stop it from rallying," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Live Events "In the near term, the confirmation of Takaichi as PM ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着主张采取宽松货币政策的高市早苗成功当选日本自民党总裁，并且几乎确定将成为下一任日本首相，市场预期日本央行将放缓加息 步伐，曾经流行的日元套利交易似乎即将卷土重来。 日元兑主要货币周一全线下跌，原因是投资者押注高市早苗的亲刺激立场将导致日本央行放缓政策紧缩的时间表。日本央行推迟加息很可能会诱使交易员重 新回归所谓的日元套利交易策略，即借入低收益的日元，并买入诸如巴西雷亚尔或澳元等高收益货币，以赚取利差。荷兰合作银行外汇策略主管Jane Foley 表示："市场可能会得出短期内'日元套利交易重新启动'的结论。" 瑞穗银行伦敦分行高级外汇策略师Masayuki Nakajima也认为，日元抛售可能进一步加速。他指出，日元兑欧元可能下探至180的水平(周一已创下历史新 低)，并可能在兑其他亚洲货币时面临进一步压力。他表示："如果高市早苗继续主张'日元疲软不会对日本经济造成负面影响'，并坚持日本央行不应加息的 立场，那么套利交易可能重启，日元将全面走弱。" 德意志银行策略师则称，他们已决定关闭此前的看涨日元头寸，因为"鉴于政治意外，目前缺乏正面催化因素"。Markets Live策略师Camer ...

Group 1 - U.S. Congress leaders are set to meet with President Trump to discuss a short-term spending bill, with a government shutdown looming if an agreement is not reached by Tuesday [1] - Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S. and high tariffs on furniture not made in the U.S. to boost domestic industries [1] - The New York Fed President Williams indicates that current policies remain tight to control inflation, with a long way to go to achieve the 2% inflation target [1] Group 2 - The SEC Chairman Atkins announces plans for "minimal regulation" and to expedite the proposal to eliminate quarterly earnings reports for companies [2] - Japan's central bank member Noguchi states that Japan is making steady progress towards its 2% inflation target, making the adjustment of policy rates more urgent than ever [2] - A joint statement from the U.S. Treasury, Swiss Treasury, and Swiss National Bank reaffirms that they will not use exchange rates as a competitive target [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.15% to 46,316.07 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.26% to 6,661.21 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.48% to 22,591.15 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.42% to $3,862.90 per ounce, and silver futures rose by 0.97% to $47.11 per ounce [3] - U.S. oil futures fell by 3.86% to $63.18 per barrel, and Brent crude futures dropped by 3.51% to $66.79 per barrel [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.26% to 97.94, while the euro and pound both appreciated against the dollar [4] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.61% to 96.97, marking a new high since April [4]

美元或将出现持续且广泛的抛售，这是来自大摩的最新判断，且认为政府关门是美元的"潜在利空"因素。 9月23日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称， 美元已进入"熊市机制"，预计这一状态将持续更长时间，带来广泛的美元卖压。 大摩策略师David S. Adams认为，美联储在鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔讲话后明确转向优先保护就业市场，即便以容忍高于目标的通胀为代价， 这一政策立场的转变 为美元熊市提供了持续动力 。 美联储政策转向触发美元熊市机制 摩根士丹利在年中展望中曾预测美元将持续走弱，但当时预期最可能的市场机制是"防御机制"，即实际利率和盈亏平衡点同时下降。 然而，自5月以来的实际情况有所不同： 实际利率确实下降了，但盈亏平衡点有所扩大。这种动态正是该行四机制框架所显示的"美元熊市机制"。 大摩指出， 关键的是，市场定价显示美元的利差优势将在未来12个月内下降近100个基点，这将显著降低做空美元的成本。 美国政府关门风险正在上升， 摩根士丹利认为这对美元构成潜在利空 。Polymarket市场数据显示，政府关门概率近期明显上升，这可能进一步 增加美元的风 险溢价 。 研报称，美联储货币政策委员会反应函数的明显转 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at approximately 0.6594 against the US dollar, showing a slight increase of 0.04% from the previous close of 0.6591 [1] - Australia ranks 11th globally in GDP, yet the AUD is the 6th most traded currency, indicating its significant position in the global forex market [1] - The AUD is the only currency among the top ten in trading volume that operates under a fully floating exchange rate regime while having substantial market influence [1] Group 2 - The AUD's exchange rate is closely linked to commodity exports, making it highly sensitive to global economic growth [1] - Investors often use AUD assets to express risk appetite, allowing for both long positions in optimistic markets and short positions to hedge against risks during market turmoil [1] - Australia has the fourth-largest retirement savings assets globally, amounting to 150% of its GDP, with expectations that this will rise to 180% of GDP in the next decade [1] Group 3 - The key support level for AUD/USD is at the August low of 0.6414, followed by the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6393 and the June low at 0.6372 [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 66, indicating potential for further upward movement in the exchange rate [2] - The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at approximately 21, suggesting that while the current trend is moderate, it is beginning to gain momentum [2]

8月份就业数据弱于预期，澳元维持低迷。 由于市场目前预期澳大利亚央行9月份降息的可能性仅为20%，澳元或将重拾升势。 美元在公布每周初请失业金人数后继续上涨。 周五，澳元兑美元小幅走低，连续第三个交易日下跌。周四美国公布每周初请失业金人数后，美元获得支撑，澳元/美元汇率保持低迷。 就业报告弱于预期，澳元也承压。报告显示，澳大利亚8月份经季节性调整的就业人口变化从7月份的2.65万人（修正后为2.45万人）降至-5.4万人，而市场 普遍预期为2.2万人。与此同时，8月份失业率稳定在4.2%，符合预期。 澳元因澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）进一步降息的可能性逐渐减弱而获得支撑。市场目前预计9月份降息的可能性仅为20%，而11月份降息的可能性则为 70%，高于目标的通胀率令政策制定者保持谨慎。 据彭博社周四晚间报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他可能在周五与中国国家主席习近平的领导人会晤时进一步延长贸易休战协议，此外还将促成 TikTok美国业务的出售。 美元在初请失业金人数走软后上涨，澳元上涨 国家统计局周一公布，中国8月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，预期增长3.8%，7月份增长3.7%。同期，中国规模以上工 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar continues to rebound, with the AUD/USD exchange rate slightly declining to 0.6609, down 0.05%, indicating low trading activity ahead of significant upcoming events [1] - US Treasury yields have collectively risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.2 basis points to 4.108%, marking the first consecutive rise since early September and the largest two-day increase in a month [1] - A report from the US Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims fell by 33,000 to 231,000, significantly below economists' expectations of 240,000, reversing the previous week's surge [1] - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for September rose to 23.2, well above the expected 2.5 and the previous value of -0.3, indicating a strong recovery in factory output despite a decline in price indicators [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman will speak in the House of Representatives on Monday, and the August CPI data will be released on Wednesday, which is the last CPI data before the RBA's interest rate decision on September 30 [2] - The short-term support area for the AUD/USD exchange rate is near the lower Bollinger Band around 0.6590-95, with resistance levels at 0.69435 [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the foreign exchange market and its dynamics, focusing on the impact of various factors on currency fluctuations, particularly the US dollar and the Chinese yuan. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Factors Influencing Exchange Rates** Exchange rate fluctuations are influenced by multiple cross-border capital flow factors, including trade in goods and services, and investment behaviors. A single theory cannot fully explain these changes, necessitating a combination of short-term technical analysis, mid-term macro frameworks, and long-term valuation models [1][3][4]. 2. **Short-term Analysis of the US Dollar** In the short term, technical indicators are crucial. The US dollar has broken below its three-year trading range, indicating a bearish trend with limited rebound potential. Weekly momentum indices can help identify short-term overbought or oversold conditions [1][5][7]. 3. **Mid to Long-term Dollar Valuation** The dollar should be viewed as having dual attributes of assets and liabilities. Its value is influenced by the relative strength of the US economy, financial sentiment, and conditions. Long-term valuation models analyze the relative prices of goods, services, and assets between countries [1][6][12]. 4. **Impact of Market Liquidity on Exchange Rates** Market liquidity significantly affects exchange rates. A tight liquidity environment can lead to a rebound in the dollar. The SOFA 99 minus SOFA metric is used to gauge liquidity conditions [1][9]. 5. **Geopolitical and External Factors** Geopolitical situations, supply chain issues, and tariff policies can influence market trading themes and, consequently, exchange rates. For instance, easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict benefited the euro [1][11]. 6. **Chinese Yuan Dynamics** The Chinese yuan's exchange rate is affected by trading themes, market signals, and central bank policies. The yuan's valuation is influenced by cross-border capital flows, with a current account surplus but a capital account deficit [2][17][24]. 7. **Seasonal Behavior of the Yuan** Seasonal factors significantly impact the yuan's exchange rate, with summer months typically seeing depreciation due to increased foreign currency purchases for dividends, while autumn and winter often see appreciation as exporters convert foreign earnings [20]. 8. **Interest Rate Differentials** Interest rate differentials play a crucial role in forex trading, with potential narrowing of the US-China interest rate gap positively impacting the yuan [18][19][26]. 9. **Effective Exchange Rate of the Yuan** The effective exchange rate of the yuan reflects its value against a basket of currencies. Despite appreciation against the dollar, the yuan has depreciated against other currencies, indicating a downward trend in its effective exchange rate [27]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The relationship between exchange rates and risk currencies (like GBP, AUD) versus safe-haven currencies (like JPY, CHF) is highlighted, noting that market risk appetite can shift these dynamics [1][8]. - The importance of monitoring external risk events, such as US monetary policy changes and geopolitical developments, is emphasized as they can significantly impact currency valuations [21][22]. - The discussion includes the potential for the dollar to remain overvalued, which could necessitate adjustments in exchange rates to restore competitiveness for US goods and services [15]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the complexities of the foreign exchange market, emphasizing the interplay of various economic, geopolitical, and technical factors that influence currency valuations.