昨日12月29日（星期一），黄金早盘开盘上涨4550受阻开始下跌，在跌至4472附近后反弹，中午上涨4520受阻，午后承压下跌，欧盘震荡下跌走势，美盘加 速大跌，最低跌至4303附近，凌晨维持在4350-4310区间震荡，日线收出一根大阴线。 一、基本面 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金价格在周一出现大幅下行，尽数回吐上周全周涨幅，最低下探至4303附近，该位置恰好对应昨日20日均线所在区间。截至当前，20日均 线运行于4310附近，日内首要关注4310-4303区域的支撑有效性；若该区域支撑失效出现破位，则价格大概率延续下行趋势。 5日均线与10日均线目前已初步拐头，呈现向下运行态势。当前金价与5日均线、10日均线偏离幅度较大，需重点关注行情的修整节奏。上方阻力方面，首要 关注4380/4382区域，该区域为前期高点所在位置，目前价格已跌破此区域，后续反弹过程中需关注该位置是否形成持续性阻力。 2、四小时级别：此前周末分析已指出，黄金价格大致处于③-3-5浪的末端阶段。周一金价大幅下行调整后，当前技术结构已进入③-4浪调整走势。因此，日 内需优先关注下跌趋势的延续性，待价格止跌企稳后，再研判③-5浪上涨走势的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Later, be cautious about short - selling at low levels for PP, and it may be a volatile market in the medium - term [1] - Short - term demand improves month - on - month, but the cost side remains weak. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but there are also positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6913, with a daily decline of 0.43%. The trading volume was 255,093, and the open interest increased by 19,156. The 01 - contract basis was - 193, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 23 [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PP in North China was 6700 - 6860 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6920 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6690 - 6900 yuan/ton yesterday [1] 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market declined slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Futures fluctuated at a low level, weakening cost support. Traders actively sold goods, and downstream demand was weak [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase due to the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity expansion. However, there are positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of gold bulls, indicating a slight fatigue in the market, and raises the question of whether the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will present new opportunities for gold [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The analysis highlights the current sentiment among gold bulls, suggesting a potential weakening in their position [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is positioned as a critical event that could influence gold prices and market dynamics [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - The article features insights from Gu Fengda, the chief analyst at Guosen Futures, indicating a professional perspective on the gold market's future [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current volatility in short-term gold trading and anticipates potential trading opportunities arising from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1 - Gold is currently experiencing short-term fluctuations, indicating a period of uncertainty in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions are expected to influence trading strategies and market movements in gold [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, anticipates that the impacts of economic conditions will begin to manifest in sectors such as construction, agriculture, leisure and hospitality, healthcare, and food processing [1] Sector Summaries - **Construction**: Expected to show signs of impact due to changing economic conditions [1] - **Agriculture**: Anticipated to experience effects as economic factors evolve [1] - **Leisure and Hospitality**: Projected to be influenced by the current economic landscape [1] - **Healthcare**: Likely to feel the repercussions of economic shifts [1] - **Food Processing**: Expected to be affected as economic conditions change [1]