Group 1: Core Insights - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) faced selling pressure, trading at 0.6450, down 0.0620% from the previous day, with a high of 0.6468 and a low of 0.6447, halting its recovery from a three-month low [1] - The strengthening of the US dollar is attributed to reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is a primary factor suppressing the Australian dollar [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a hawkish policy stance, supported by improved market risk appetite, which provides some support for the Australian dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's economic growth is robust, with the November Manufacturing PMI rising from 49.7 to 51.6, indicating expansion, while the Services PMI increased to 52.7, and the Composite PMI strengthened to 52.6 [1] - These positive economic indicators reinforce the RBA's cautious hawkish policy, suggesting that if economic data continues to exceed expectations, interest rates may remain unchanged for an extended period [1] - RBA Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter emphasized that sustained growth above trend could intensify inflationary pressures, indicating that monthly inflation data fluctuations should not prompt premature policy adjustments [1] Group 3: US Economic Context - In the US, September non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and wage growth remained subdued [2] - The moderate slowdown in the labor market has led some investors to speculate on potential policy easing by the Federal Reserve [2] - The FOMC minutes from October revealed a divergence among Fed members regarding the necessity of a rate cut in December, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut rising from 30% to 36% [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD recorded a 0.10% decline, trading at 0.6440, as global market sentiment diverged despite positive domestic economic data [3] - The short-term technical outlook appears bearish, with the price below the 20-period simple moving average (SMA), which is trending downwards, forming a death cross with the 50-period SMA [3] - Immediate resistance is at 0.6468, with potential targets at 0.6500 and 0.6520, while support levels are at 0.6447 and 0.6420, with further declines targeting 0.6400 [3]