彭博美元指数随长期美债收益率小幅走高，G-10货币在年末清淡交投中窄幅波动。 彭博美元即期指数上涨不到0.1%，扭转了早前在亚洲和伦敦交易时段的跌势。 该指数今年以来下跌约8%，迈向2017年以来最大年度跌幅。 丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne在报告中写道："若进一步走强，目标将指向2023年初的水平， 并为日元、韩元等区域内货币的更广泛走强铺平道路"。 美联储12月会议纪要显示，多数官员认为，如果通胀如预期所料随时间推移而回落，进一步降息是合适 之举。 欧元/美元跌0.2%至1.1750。 瑞典央行最新一次政策会议纪要显示，官员们似乎确信，未来一年维持借贷成本不变将有助于支撑经济 复苏，并使通胀稳定在接近2%目标水平附近。 英镑兑美元的跌势在纽约交易时段延续。英镑/美元跌0.3%，至1.3468。 美元/日元涨0.2%，至156.45；澳元/美元涨不到0.1%，至0.6697，在G-10货币兑美元中跑赢；美元/加元 持稳在1.3696。 责任编辑：李桐 DTCC数据显示，大额期权到期价位包括1.1750（22.8亿欧元）和1.1800（6.47亿欧元）。 欧元/瑞典克朗在涨跌之间波动，稳定在 ...

12月30日，随着黄金的价格在今年"一路狂飙"，华尔街分析师们的2026年展望报告也在被不断"撕碎重 写"。在周一最新发布的一份报告中，瑞银宣布，其对2026年前三个季度（截至9月）黄金价格的预期将 上调至每盎司5000美元。而如果围绕美国中期选举的政治或经济动荡加剧，黄金价格甚至可能涨至每盎 司5400美元。此外，瑞银的大宗商品策略师们还预计，到2026年底，黄金价格将回落至每盎司4800美元 ——比之前的预测每盎司4300美元高出500美元。瑞银认为，在实际收益率低迷、持续的全球经济担忧 以及美国国内政策不确定性（尤其是与中期选举和不断增加的财政压力相关的不确定性）的支撑下， 2026年黄金需求将稳步增长。策略师们在报告中写道："如果政治或金融风险加剧，黄金价格可能会涨 至每盎司5400美元（此前预期为每盎司4900美元）。" 另外，华尔街金融巨头高盛近日发布研报表示，美国经济在2025年的强劲增长韧性预计将在日历翻至 2026年后强势延续，随着特朗普政府主导的"大而美"法案中的减税细则与更有利的宽松金融条件开始共 同发挥作用，加之关税与通胀带来的逆风大幅缓解，美国经济"软着陆"这一宏观主叙事在2026年 ...

Group 1 - The former Bank of Japan policy committee member Yutaka Harada emphasizes the need for a cautious approach to interest rate hikes while advocating for stronger fiscal, monetary, and tax policies to stimulate the economy [1][6] - Harada suggests that the current government under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi should aim for a "high-pressure economy" to drive growth through comprehensive demand stimulation [1][6] - He notes that current inflation in Japan is partly driven by supply-side factors, such as rising rice prices, indicating that further interest rate hikes may have limited effectiveness in controlling this type of inflation [1][6] Group 2 - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi expresses skepticism about the underlying economic conditions in the U.S., despite strong third-quarter GDP data [2][7] - Zandi believes that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, and the latest GDP report has not renewed his confidence in the economic outlook [2][8] - He points out that while actual GDP growth appears significant, a deeper analysis reveals a growth rate closer to 2%, which is insufficient for job creation as the unemployment rate continues to rise [2][8]

澳元/美元汇率走势受美元影响显著。当前美元指数（DXY）在98.20附近震荡整理，美联储政策预期分歧是美元维持区间波动的核心原因。 美国11月经济数据呈现分化特征：非农新增就业6.4万个，略高于预期，但10月数据被下修，失业率升至4.6%（2021年以来新高）；零售销售数据持平，显 示消费需求放缓。 周三外汇市场，澳元对美元连续第五日下跌，澳元/美元货币对在0.6630附近震荡。 澳大利亚央行（RBA）加息预期升温，这一因素可能限制澳元跌幅，对其形成支撑。 市场对RBA政策转向的关注度上升，核心原因在于经济产能受限背景下通胀持续高企。 澳大利亚联邦银行与国民银行均上调加息预期，认为RBA将早于此前预测启动紧缩政策。这一判断基于上周RBA 2025年最后一次会议释放的鹰派信号。 互换合约定价显示，2月RBA加息概率为28%，3月加息概率升至近41%，8月加息已被市场充分定价。加息预期对澳元形成托底作用，将约束其下跌空间。 加息预期提供长期支撑的同时，经济数据分化对澳元形成短期压制。标普全球12月PMI数据显示，制造业PMI从51.6升至52.2，服务业PMI从52.8降至51.0， 综合PMI从52.6降至51 ...

12月10日，日本央行行长植田和男表示，央行正逐步接近实现通胀目标，并暗示加息步伐不会仅限于一 次，这为本月晚些时候可能实施的政策转向释放了明确信号。植田和男在周二接受英国《金融时报》采 访时表示，"我们正接近持续性的2%通胀"。他同时指出，央行将持续缓慢调整货币宽松程度，直至实 现持续性2%通胀目标，且政策利率回到自然利率水平。植田和男在媒体采访中表示，央行在再次加息 后不太可能就此结束，因为央行将继续调整对经济的支持力度："央行将继续缓慢调整货币宽松程度， 直到通胀率持续保持在2%以上，并且政策利率回归自然水平为止。无论自然水平是多少。"这一表态暗 示，即使央行在本月加息，货币政策正常化进程仍将延续。市场关注的焦点是植田和男将如何指引未来 的利率路径，以及他对既不刺激也不抑制经济的中性利率水平的判断。 另外，近来被爆料是下任美联储主席头号热门人选的凯文·哈塞特表示，美联储仍有"充足的空间"进一 步降息，但如果通胀上升，情况可能会有所改变。 美东时间9日周二在《华尔街日报》CEO理事会峰会 上，当被问及如果最终出任联储主席，是否会推动总统所期待的"大幅降息"时，目前担任白宫国家经济 委员会主任的哈塞特表示： ...

Group 1 - The forex and precious metals markets are experiencing light trading as traders focus on upcoming EU inflation data and potential Fed policy easing [1][3] - The US manufacturing sector shows weaker-than-expected performance, with the ISM manufacturing PMI dropping from 48.7 to 48.2, indicating continued contraction [1][2] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, with the probability rising to 87% according to FedWatch [1][2] Group 2 - The euro/dollar remains above 1.1600, while the pound/dollar hovers around 1.3200, indicating cautious trading ahead of key data releases [2] - Gold prices are fluctuating around $4200, supported by strong easing expectations despite pressure from rising US Treasury yields [2][3] - Geopolitical risks related to ongoing discussions between US officials and Russian President regarding Ukraine provide some underlying support for gold [2]

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibited a cautious stance on the first trading day of December, with major asset prices fluctuating around economic data and central bank policy expectations [1] - U.S. stock index futures fell between 0.5% to 1% during European morning trading, reflecting investor hesitance regarding economic outlook [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November, released by the Institute for Supply Management, is a key data point influencing U.S. stock market movements, as investors look to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector [1] - China's manufacturing PMI for November dropped to 49.9, indicating contraction, down from 50.6 in October and below the market expectation of 50.5, following a nearly 1.5% increase the previous week [1] Currency Movements - The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar opened lower on Monday, trading in a negative range below 0.6550, influenced by the disappointing Chinese PMI data [1] - The U.S. dollar index, a core variable for cross-market interactions, fell over 0.7% last week, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December continuing to rise [3] - The euro/dollar pair consolidated last week's gains, trading slightly below 1.1600, while the pound/dollar pair saw a slight decline to around 1.3200 after a 1% increase last week [4] Precious Metals - Gold emerged as one of the few strong assets in the current market, reaching a high of over $4250 during Asian trading, although it experienced a pullback during European morning trading, remaining above $4200 [4] - The performance of gold is directly related to the weakening dollar and market expectations for accommodative policies, highlighting its safe-haven and value-preserving attributes [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global FX (Foreign Exchange) Market** outlook for 2026, emphasizing a **bearish dollar** and a **bullish beta** environment. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Bearish Dollar Outlook**: The dollar is expected to have a bearish bias in the first half of 2026 due to factors such as Federal Reserve asymmetries, twin deficits, and a global recovery, although its weakness may be constrained by US economic resilience [6][8][17]. 2. **Currency Predictions**: Key currency forecasts include EUR/USD at 1.20, USD/JPY at 164, and USD/CNY at 7.05 [6][8]. 3. **Global Economic Recovery**: The macroeconomic landscape in 2026 is characterized by procyclicality, synchronized central bank inactivity, and a focus on fiscal policy and AI adoption impacts [6][8][36]. 4. **High Beta/Yielding Currencies**: Preference is given to high beta and yielding currencies, with expectations that DM (Developed Markets) high-yielders like NOK and AUD will benefit from growth pick-up [6][8][36]. 5. **FX Carry Trades**: FX carry trades are anticipated to perform well amid low volatility and central bank inactivity, with a focus on carry-efficient hedges for risk markets [6][8][36]. 6. **US Policy Risks**: US policy remains a significant source of FX risk, with a shift in focus from tariffs to fiscal policy and the Fed's framework [6][8][64]. 7. **AI Impact**: The adoption of AI is expected to influence FX markets, with carry trades linked to AI commodity exporters like AUD and CLP [6][8][52]. 8. **Fiscal Differentiation**: Fiscal differentiation is highlighted as a critical factor, with CHF showing the best fiscal metrics among reserve currencies [49][132]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: The dollar's performance has historically correlated with net foreign direct investment (FDI) rather than net equity inflows, indicating a complex relationship between currency strength and investment flows [54][90]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: FX volatility is expected to remain subdued, but historical patterns suggest limited further downside from current low levels [44][46]. 3. **Trade Recommendations**: Specific trade recommendations include maintaining USD shorts, buying AUD/USD, and various options strategies involving EUR/GBP and NOK/JPY [9][8][17]. 4. **Growth Forecasts**: The growth forecasts for 2026 are skewed to the upside, driven by the lagged effects of prior global monetary easing and easier financial conditions [18][19]. 5. **Structural Issues**: The US faces unresolved macro issues, such as the divergence between resilient GDP growth and a softening labor market [30][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and risks in the FX market for 2026.

Group 1: Core Insights - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) faced selling pressure, trading at 0.6450, down 0.0620% from the previous day, with a high of 0.6468 and a low of 0.6447, halting its recovery from a three-month low [1] - The strengthening of the US dollar is attributed to reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is a primary factor suppressing the Australian dollar [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a hawkish policy stance, supported by improved market risk appetite, which provides some support for the Australian dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's economic growth is robust, with the November Manufacturing PMI rising from 49.7 to 51.6, indicating expansion, while the Services PMI increased to 52.7, and the Composite PMI strengthened to 52.6 [1] - These positive economic indicators reinforce the RBA's cautious hawkish policy, suggesting that if economic data continues to exceed expectations, interest rates may remain unchanged for an extended period [1] - RBA Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter emphasized that sustained growth above trend could intensify inflationary pressures, indicating that monthly inflation data fluctuations should not prompt premature policy adjustments [1] Group 3: US Economic Context - In the US, September non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and wage growth remained subdued [2] - The moderate slowdown in the labor market has led some investors to speculate on potential policy easing by the Federal Reserve [2] - The FOMC minutes from October revealed a divergence among Fed members regarding the necessity of a rate cut in December, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut rising from 30% to 36% [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD recorded a 0.10% decline, trading at 0.6440, as global market sentiment diverged despite positive domestic economic data [3] - The short-term technical outlook appears bearish, with the price below the 20-period simple moving average (SMA), which is trending downwards, forming a death cross with the 50-period SMA [3] - Immediate resistance is at 0.6468, with potential targets at 0.6500 and 0.6520, while support levels are at 0.6447 and 0.6420, with further declines targeting 0.6400 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations driven by weak employment data raising interest rate cut expectations, while the impending vote on the U.S. funding bill provides short-term support for the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Recent ADP data indicates that the average weekly layoffs in the U.S. private sector reached approximately 11,250, signaling a notable cooling in the job market [1]. - The weak employment data has significantly increased the market's bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool [1][3]. - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further policy guidance [1]. Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stabilized in the range of 99.50 to 99.55, recovering from previous declines [2]. - Gold prices maintained above $4,100, with fluctuations primarily between $4,100 and $4,150, supported by rate cut expectations [2][3]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight increase to 0.6550, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's officials maintaining a tightening stance [2]. Group 3: Political Developments and Economic Outlook - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is now under consideration in the House of Representatives; successful passage could alleviate government shutdown risks and restore the release of official data [1][3]. - The ongoing developments in the funding bill and the upcoming employment data release are expected to be key catalysts for market direction [3].