Global FX Strategy 25 November 2025 FX 2026 Outlook Presentation: Bearish Dollar, Bullish Beta Top macro trades for 2026 Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan AC (44-20) 7134-2924 meera.chandan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Arindam Sandilya AC (65) 6882-7759 arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. All charts are sourced from J.P. Morgan unless otherwise specified. {[{grdFszrq7 ...

11月24日（周一），澳元/美元在新一周开盘后迎来新的卖盘打压，截至当日9时47分，汇率报0.6450， 较前一交易日下跌0.0620%，盘中最高触及0.6468、最低下探0.6447，周五刚刚启动的从三个月低点的 温和复苏态势戛然而止。美元看涨情绪因美联储降息预期减弱持续升温，成为压制澳元的主要因素；不 过澳大利亚联储（RBA）的鹰派政策倾向与市场风险偏好的边际改善，为澳元提供了部分支撑，交易 员也选择等待本周澳、美关键通胀数据公布后，再进行方向性押注。 短期均线与价格走势方面，澳元/美元价格目前运行于20期简单移动平均线（SMA）下方，20期SMA呈 现向下拐头趋势，与50期SMA形成死叉，短期技术形态偏空，而100期和200期SMA仍维持平缓走势， 中长期趋势尚未出现明确转向信号；日线级别相对强弱指数（RSI）目前录得42，处于50中性线下方， 虽未进入超卖区间，但反映出多头动能不足，空头仍占据短期主导地位。 支撑与阻力层面，上方即时阻力位关注0.6468（当日高点），突破后可看向0.6500整数关口及0.6520 （38.2%斐波那契回撤位）；下方支撑首先看0.6447（当日低点），跌破后将测试0.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations driven by weak employment data raising interest rate cut expectations, while the impending vote on the U.S. funding bill provides short-term support for the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Recent ADP data indicates that the average weekly layoffs in the U.S. private sector reached approximately 11,250, signaling a notable cooling in the job market [1]. - The weak employment data has significantly increased the market's bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool [1][3]. - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further policy guidance [1]. Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stabilized in the range of 99.50 to 99.55, recovering from previous declines [2]. - Gold prices maintained above $4,100, with fluctuations primarily between $4,100 and $4,150, supported by rate cut expectations [2][3]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight increase to 0.6550, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's officials maintaining a tightening stance [2]. Group 3: Political Developments and Economic Outlook - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is now under consideration in the House of Representatives; successful passage could alleviate government shutdown risks and restore the release of official data [1][3]. - The ongoing developments in the funding bill and the upcoming employment data release are expected to be key catalysts for market direction [3].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to weak employment data strengthening interest rate cut expectations, while progress on government funding stabilizes the dollar [1][4] - The ADP report indicates a reduction of approximately 11,000 jobs per week in the private sector, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][4] - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is expected to be voted on by the House, potentially leading to the reopening of the government and the resumption of delayed official data [1][3] Group 2 - Gold prices have risen to around $4,140, a two-week high, driven by lower interest rate expectations reducing the holding costs of gold [2][4] - The dollar index has rebounded to the 99.50–99.55 range following the Senate's approval of the funding bill, despite concerns about potential economic slowdown reflected in upcoming data [3][4] - The Australian dollar and British pound are under pressure due to respective economic factors, with the Australian dollar hovering around 0.6520 and the British pound declining to approximately 1.3130 [3][4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to monitor the progress of government reopening and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as these will be key catalysts for market direction [4] - The upcoming votes in the House and the performance of official data post-reopening will directly impact market risk appetite [3][4]

Market Overview - The global largest gold ETF held 1,040.35 tons as of November 6, with an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows a significant increase in corporate layoffs by 175.3% year-on-year in October, with a loss of 9,100 jobs reported [3] - The Chicago Fed reported an unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, the highest in four years [3] - Retail hiring for the holiday season is expected to be the lowest since the financial crisis, although consumer spending may exceed $1 trillion [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces increasing policy divergence, with a 72% probability of another rate cut in December [3] - The Bank of England has removed the term "cautious," potentially paving the way for a rate cut in December [3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $3,977.16 per ounce, reflecting a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment amid government shutdown concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] Currency Strategies - For EUR/USD, a bullish strategy is suggested above 1.1515, targeting 1.1560 and then 1.1580 [4] - For gold, a bearish strategy is recommended below 3,995, targeting 3,964 and then 3,948 [8] - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is anticipated below 153.70, targeting 152.70 and then 152.30 [11] - For GBP/USD, a bullish strategy is advised above 1.3070, targeting 1.3165 and then 1.3195 [14] - For AUD/USD, a bearish strategy is suggested below 0.6500, targeting 0.6460 and then 0.6440 [17]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) stabilized against the US dollar (USD) at 0.6472 after the US Supreme Court heard debates regarding Trump's tariff policies [1] - The latest ADP employment report indicated an addition of over 42,000 jobs in the US last month, surpassing the expected median of 40,000, reversing a previous decline of 32,000 jobs [1] - The ISM report showed an increase in the services PMI from 50 to 52.4, while S&P's data indicated a rise from 54.2 to 54.8 [1] Group 2 - Australia's trade surplus for September expanded to AUD 3.938 billion, exceeding the expected AUD 3.850 billion and the previous value of AUD 1.111 billion [2] - Exports turned positive with a growth of 7.9%, while imports increased by 1.1%, lower than the previous growth of 3.3% [2] Group 3 - The AUD/USD pair stabilized after hitting a low of 0.6463, coinciding with a key support level that aligns with an ascending trend line since May 12 [3] - A head and shoulders pattern has formed, indicating a bearish reversal, with the neckline being the aforementioned ascending trend line [3] - The most likely forecast for AUD/USD is bearish, with an initial target at the psychological level of 0.6400; a break above the 100-day moving average at 0.6541 would invalidate the bearish outlook [3]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is currently trading at approximately 0.6534, showing a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The AUD/USD has experienced a downward trend for four consecutive days, with a total decline of about 0.08% [1] - A bearish candlestick pattern indicates that the downward momentum for the AUD is weakening, with initial support observed above the September low of 0.6483 [1] Group 2 - The correlation between Australian government bond yields and options market positions suggests that the potential for AUD retracement may be limited [2] - The 2-year Australian government bond yield has been rising, and the AUD/USD 2-year interest rate differential has widened significantly [2] - Despite a temporary increase in implied volatility for 1-day AUD/USD options, the 1-week and 1-month implied volatilities remain at moderate levels [2]

澳元/美元突破0.65325，确认在美联储预期降息前出现看涨趋势。 强劲的通胀数据和市场对澳联储降息预期的减弱推动澳元走强，进一步巩固了其对走软美元的优势。 价格在突破区域上方盘整，0.6559-0.6578的公允价值缺口(FVG)清晰，为后续目标位0.6628和0.6700提供了潜在的重新入场机会。 澳元/美元在美联储会议前突破 在交易员们翘首以盼美联储即将宣布的降息之际，澳元/美元已经率先发力。 该货币对突破了0.65325的突破区域，打破了数周的盘整，确认了结构性转变，预示着看涨趋势的延续。 由于市场几乎已将美联储降息25个基点的预期计入，澳元走低，推动澳元兑美元走强。与此同时，澳大利亚第三季度通胀数据超出预期，季度CPI上涨 1.3%，年度通胀稳定在3.2%，这为澳储行维持利率不变提供了强有力的论据。 对比显而易见：美联储的政策趋于宽松，而澳储行则保持稳定。这种利率分歧，加上全球市场乐观的风险情绪，推动澳元在FOMC会议宣布前领涨G10货 币。 突破背后的基本面驱动因素 1. 美联储的宽松倾向 市场已充分消化了25个基点的降息预期，交易员正在为鸽派立场转变做准备。 鲍威尔若暗示此次降息标志着宽松周期的 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) has shown a positive trend, rising above 0.6500, with the latest exchange rate at 0.6505, reflecting a 0.28% increase. This rise is attributed to optimistic signals in international trade, particularly regarding a potential trade agreement between the US and China [1] - US President Trump indicated that implementing comprehensive tariffs on China is not sustainable and expressed hope for a high-quality agreement between the two nations. However, he warned of a potential 155% tariff if negotiations fail, making the upcoming US-China trade talks a focal point for the market [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, with the Senate failing to pass a funding bill for the 11th time, indicating a continued legislative deadlock [1] Group 2 - Market attention is shifting towards the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set to be released on October 24, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year rise. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29 is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which may further influence the AUD's performance [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate has gained some bullish momentum, supported by the stability of the current support level at 0.6475. However, the negative pressure from trading below the EMA50 continues to limit recovery opportunities in the near term [2] - The AUD/USD has failed to break through the key resistance level of 0.6535, with a lack of new catalysts suggesting a potential for continued volatility in the short term. Analysts have identified support levels at 0.6440 and 0.6415, and resistance levels at 0.6535 and 0.6630, indicating the need for investors to monitor upcoming catalysts [2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is currently trading at approximately 0.6491, down 0.32% from the opening at 0.6515, and closed the previous trading day at 0.6513 [1] - Australian Prime Minister Albanese mentioned that trade will also include projects with Japan, indicating potential international collaboration [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on October 24, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD pair is experiencing a downward trend, currently trading around 0.6487, with a decline of approximately 0.38% [2] - The Australian dollar has failed to break through the key resistance level of 0.6535, indicating a lack of new driving factors in the market [2] - Support levels are identified at 0.6440 and 0.6415, while resistance levels are at 0.6535 and 0.6630, suggesting a potential range-bound movement in the short term [2]