1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the prices of various commodities. The market is highly sensitive to the progress of the cease - fire negotiations and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea [3][4]. - Different sectors have different market trends. For example, in the oil product sector, the prices are affected by supply - demand relations and geopolitical factors; in the chemical industry, the prices are influenced by policies, supply - demand, and cost factors; in the non - ferrous metal sector, the prices are supported by cost and demand factors [3][5][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: The intention of the US and Iran to cease the war has led to a decline in rising oil prices. - Fundamental: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the global crude oil supply is generally tight. Incidents in Ukraine and the Red Sea have further aggravated supply concerns. - Macro: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have risen, and market sentiment has improved with the easing of the geopolitical situation [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: The fundamentals provide support, and the downward space for cracking is limited. - Fundamental: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamental support, and the supply is still tight in April. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a tight supply - demand balance, and the supply - side tightening support is strong [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and there is still support in the short term. - Fundamental: Although the price has decreased due to the US's cease - fire intention, the supply is expected to be tight in the medium term, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to geopolitical progress and downstream negative feedback. - Fundamental: The futures price has risen, the spot market has a general trading atmosphere, the supply load has increased, and the demand load has decreased. The mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased production cuts [8][9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Policy and supply - demand are in a stalemate, and the price is in a high - level consolidation. - Fundamental: The market price is relatively stable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [10]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: The tense geopolitical relationship between the US and Iran makes the short - term import shortage difficult to solve, supporting high - level operation, but the risk of chasing high prices is increasing. - Fundamental: The price is in a high - level shock, the port price has declined, and the basis is still strong. The short - term import shortage will support the high - level operation of the price, but attention should be paid to the risk of the reversal of the bullish logic [11]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: The rigid demand is weakening, and the supply - demand pressure is large. - Fundamental: The price is weakly stable, the inventory has changed from destocking to stockpiling, and the supply - demand contradiction will continue to increase. The rebound needs supply - side production cuts, but the production - cut drive is not clear [12]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: Both supply and demand are weak, and production cuts continue. - Fundamental: The short - term market sentiment is weak, the supply is decreasing, and the market is in a game between low supply and weak demand. In the medium term, the cost pressure has increased, and the support of low supply for the spot price will increase after the demand out of the off - season [13][14]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: The spot price is loosening, and the export end shows signs of weakening. - Fundamental: The short - term spot price shows a marginal weakening trend, the export demand still has support, but attention should be paid to the price decline risk if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The upstream mine has disturbances, the processing fee is at a low level, the demand is growing structurally, the inventory is in a state of destocking in some places, and the long - term demand for new energy transformation is beneficial [16]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The monetary policy outlook is uncertain, the Middle East conflict has an impact on inflation and the US dollar index, and the weakening of the US dollar index may drive the rise of the gold price [18]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price is oscillating strongly. - Fundamental: The market focus is on the Middle East situation and the Fed's interpretation of inflation expectations, and the price trend is full of uncertainties [19].

Report Information - Report Name: Platinum and Palladium Futures Daily Report 2026/3/31 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Report's Core View - The current market's main contradictions revolve around the repeated situation between the US and Iran, disturbances in oil prices and inflation expectations, and pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Platinum and palladium prices are mainly affected by gold and silver prices and macro - expectations, with platinum performing slightly better than palladium [2]. - In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the year - end above - ground inventory may drop to 2.613 million ounces, with the inventory buffer continuing to shrink. The medium - term tight logic of platinum remains unchanged [2]. - The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts is supported by hybrid and internal combustion engine models. The Chinese fiberglass industry may become a new source of palladium demand in the future, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline - vehicle catalysts, with a relatively single structure and long - term suppression from the increase in electric - vehicle penetration and recycling supply [2]. - Market volatility may remain high. Due to the volatile situation between the US and Iran, platinum and palladium are difficult to break through the strong resistance above. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually build long positions in platinum on dips. The support levels for London platinum and palladium are $1,800 per ounce and $1,300 per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum主力合约收盘价: 493.10 yuan/gram, palladium主力合约收盘价: 361.40 yuan/gram, up 3.20 yuan [2]. - Platinum主力合约持仓量: 10,387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; palladium主力合约持仓量: 3,179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 495.06 yuan/gram, up 5.41 yuan; Yangtze River palladium spot average price: 341.00 yuan/gram, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - Platinum主力合约基差: 1.96 yuan/gram, up 4.61 yuan; palladium主力合约基差: - 20.40 yuan/gram, up 8.80 yuan [2]. 3.3供需情况 - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 9,966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 3,003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. - 2025 estimated total platinum supply: 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium supply: 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - 2025 estimated total platinum demand: 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium demand: 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4宏观数据 - Dollar index: 100.51, up 0.32; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.04%, down 0.44%; VIX volatility index: 30.61, down 0.09 [2]. 3.5行业消息 - US President Trump has indicated to his staff that he is willing to end the US military operation against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed, which may extend Tehran's influence in the key waterway and postpone the complex task of reopening the strait [2]. - Trump said that Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point cease - fire plan", and the US is in serious consultations with Iran to end the military operation. He threatened to destroy all of Iran's power plants if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that in the context of the energy shock caused by the US - Israel war against Iran, the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignore" the impact. But he warned that if price increases start to change the public's long - term inflation expectations, the Fed may not be able to stand by [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said that in the context of major disruptions to the supply chain caused by the Middle East conflict, the current interest - rate level is in a favorable position. Fed Governor Milan continued to call for an interest - rate cut, believing that policymakers should ignore the current increase in energy prices unless there are signs of long - term impact, and still thinks the interest rate can be cut by 100 basis points this year [2]. 3.6重点关注 - March 31, 22:00: US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [2] - March 31, 21:00: US January S&P House Price Index [2] - April 1, 20:15: US March ADP Employment Number [2] - April 1, 22:00: US March ISM Manufacturing PMI [2] - April 2, 20:30: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 [2] - April 2, 20:30: US February Trade Balance [2] - April 3, 20:30: US March Non - farm Payrolls Change [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, copper prices were suppressed by both macro - negative factors and geopolitical conflicts. The US - Iran conflict pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, reversed the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing copper prices. The main contract of Shanghai copper hit a low of 91,500 yuan/ton. Although the price rebounded slightly in the second half of the month, the overall market sentiment remained weak [6][10][54]. - The current core logic of the market lies in the game between macro - negative factors and positive fundamentals. Geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices continue to suppress macro - sentiment, while the acceleration of domestic de - stocking provides a certain safety cushion for copper prices [6][54]. - Looking ahead to April, copper prices are expected to continue the weak - shock pattern. If the conflict is not effectively alleviated, it is difficult to be optimistic about copper prices. However, the fundamentals will limit the downside space of copper prices [6][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a high - level shock and decline. At the beginning of the month, it was supported by domestic macro - favorable policies and policy expectations, but then was suppressed by overseas geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and a stronger US dollar. In the second half of the month, the price dropped rapidly, breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark and reaching around 91,500 yuan. The position also declined, and market attention decreased [10]. - In terms of price structure, the basis and monthly spread of domestic copper strengthened in March, mainly due to inventory de - stocking caused by downstream restocking [13]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Decline in Overseas Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - In the first quarter, the market's expected probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2026 decreased rapidly. At the end of March, the expected probability of an interest - rate cut was less than 10%, and there were even expectations of a rate hike. The main reason was the tense US - Iran situation, rising oil prices, and increasing inflation expectations [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Macro - easing and High - quality Industrial Development - In March, domestic macro - policies continued the easing tone. The "Two Sessions" set the economic growth target for 2026 at around 5%. Fiscal policies accelerated the issuance of special bonds, and monetary policies maintained reasonable liquidity [19]. - China plans to improve the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national strategic reserve and exploring commercial reserves. The national power grid's 4 - trillion - yuan investment plan during the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide long - term support for copper demand [20]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Continuous Disturbances at the Mine End - In January 2026, global copper mine production increased by about 2.2% year - on - year. However, in March, there were production disturbances at the mine end. For example, the Garpenberg copper mine in Sweden was affected by earthquakes, and the Kennecott copper mine in the US had a safety accident and stopped production [21][24]. 3.3.2 Marginal Easing of the Domestic Mine End - As of March 20, the inventory of copper concentrates at seven major domestic ports was 312,900 tons, a significant decrease compared with the end of February and the same period last year. The spot processing fee (TC) was in the negative range, hitting a new low since September 2007 [25][26]. 3.3.3 Abundant Domestic Electrolytic Copper Supply - In January 2026, global refined copper production increased by about 1% year - on - year. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) had a combined output growth of about 5%. In February 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons. From January to February, the cumulative import of electrolytic copper decreased by 33.13% year - on - year [30][34][36]. 3.3.4 Seasonal De - stocking of Domestic Electrolytic Copper - As of March 20, 2026, the global exchange inventory was 1.3473 million tons, an increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year. Overseas inventory continued to rise, while domestic inventory was in the process of seasonal de - stocking [39][41]. 3.3.5 Downstream Terminals - In March, the downstream terminal consumption showed a moderate recovery but fell short of expectations. - Power grid: It is the largest consumption area, and the investment showed strong growth. However, due to high copper prices, the release of new orders was slow [49][50]. - New energy: The photovoltaic and wind power sectors showed a differentiated trend. The growth of photovoltaic installation slowed down, while the wind power sector maintained steady growth [51]. - Real estate: The real estate industry was still at the bottom. The three core indicators continued to decline, negatively affecting copper consumption. The home appliance industry was affected by the Spring Festival and policy factors, with mixed performance [52]. - Transportation: The automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, was an important support for consumption. Although the production and sales of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year, the penetration rate remained high, and exports were strong [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and investors need to remain cautious and adopt a risk - averse strategy. The situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on various markets, including energy, commodities, and financial markets. In April, the end of Trump's suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities on April 6 and the A - share earnings report season are important observation points. The market may experience a decline in trading volume before the holiday, and the short - term rebound repair may be limited. It is recommended to control positions and wait for confirmation of volume indicators [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - US President Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th, and China and the US are in communication about this [7]. - Trump postponed the attack on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6, 2026, at 8 pm Eastern Time. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal with four conditions [7]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a "final blow" military option against Iran, including actions such as blockades and attacks on key facilities. Iran has organized over a million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front [8]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand, suggesting that the international community encourage the US and Iran to return to the negotiation table [8]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Scherzma, and they exchanged views on Sino - Dutch semiconductor cooperation [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement, and 96 central departments publicly announced their 2026 budgets with a 7.2% year - on - year decrease in the "Three Public Expenses" [9]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On March 30, the sugar price closed down with a decrease in trading volume. The domestic supply is relatively abundant, but the international market provides support. If the price can stabilize above 5400 yuan/ton, a light - position long position can be considered, with a resistance level around 5500 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: On March 30, the corn price broke through the lower limit of the previous oscillation range. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a resistance level at 2350 - 2360 yuan and a support level at 2330 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: On March 30, the peanut price oscillated at a high level with a decrease in trading volume. The supply is tight, and the demand is divided. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies, with a support level at 8000 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price was stable, showing a pattern of "rising in the north and falling in the south". The short - position should be reduced as the market shows signs of stabilization [13]. - **Egg**: The national egg price was stable. The futures price adjusted, and it is recommended to short in the short term [13]. - **Red Date**: The domestic red date market has weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to operate within the range [13]. - **Cotton**: On March 30, the cotton price oscillated within a narrow range. The supply is supported by production reduction expectations, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to go long at the lower limit of the oscillation range, with a resistance level at 15500 yuan/ton and a support level at 15300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased. Overseas supply is tightening, and domestic exports are expected to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to the risk of near - month contract correction [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke increased, and the downstream demand also increased. The first round of coke price increase is expected to be implemented on April 1. It is expected that the overall trend will be strong, with support levels at 1150 - 1200 yuan for coking coal and 1700 yuan for coke [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply pressure of double - offset paper is high, and the demand is weak. The price is restricted by supply and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range of 4000 - 4200 yuan [15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price is stable. The supply and demand are in a balanced state. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate within the range of 1780 - 1950 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East and the Fed's monetary policy signal. The prices are oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to risks [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are affected by the situation in the Middle East. The copper - aluminum ratio may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to relevant economic data [15][17]. - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina supply is large, but there are concerns about the supply of bauxite from Guinea. It is recommended to go long at low prices, while being vigilant against macro risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot market of rebar and hot - rolled coil is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate and adjust slightly [17]. - **Ferroalloy**: The ferroalloy market is oscillating at a high level. The cost is supported, but attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate continued to be strong and broke through the previous high. The supply is disturbed, and the demand is slightly increasing. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy, while being vigilant against high - level oscillation risks [17][19]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: On March 30, the A - share market had mixed performance. The trading volume of the stock index futures decreased, and the implied volatility of options increased. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend [21]. - **Stock Index**: On March 30, the three major A - share indexes had mixed performance. The European and American stock markets also had mixed performance. The market is affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate policy. It is recommended to control positions and wait for market stabilization [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk remains high, causing platinum and palladium to fluctuate. The short - term market risk preference is low, and investors are advised to be cautious. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the valuation of platinum, but the current geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran still significantly affects market expectations and platinum prices. Palladium follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector, with short - term supply disturbances and long - term supply - demand loosening [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: On March 30, 2026, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 2.66% to 497.5 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: The US released positive signals of suspending strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and negotiating with Iran, but Trump's remarks increased uncertainty. Short - term geopolitical risk remains high, market volatility is large, and risk preference is low. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is pessimistic. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is conducive to platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still affects the market [2] - **Outlook**: The high energy prices push up the US inflation expectation and postpone the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate [2] Palladium - **Price**: On March 30, 2026, the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 0.61% to 357.30 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. On the demand side, there is structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, and it mainly follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector [3] - **Outlook**: The spot tightness has eased recently, and with macro - level suppression, it is expected that the palladium price will fluctuate [3] Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2535.43, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index is 2829.64, up 1.01%; the industrial products index is 2584.88, up 1.10% [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 30, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2615.59, with a daily increase of 0.50%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.29%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.62% [51]

Market Overview - The North Exchange A-shares market is experiencing increased risk aversion due to ongoing global geopolitical conflicts and fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to heightened volatility in global risk assets[6] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has decreased by CNY 100.6 billion, while the North Exchange A-shares' average daily trading volume has shrunk by CNY 28.7 billion, reaching a near one-year low[6] Valuation and Performance - The current PE (TTM) ratio for North Exchange A-shares has dropped to approximately 34 times, down from about 50 times in mid-2025, indicating a significant correction[6] - The North Exchange's valuation is now lower than that of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (42.2 times) and the Growth Enterprise Market (38.0 times), suggesting a growing safety margin for long-term investments[6] Trading Activity - As of March 27, 2026, the North Exchange A-shares consist of 301 stocks with an average market capitalization of CNY 26.8 billion, compared to CNY 131.1 billion for the Growth Enterprise Market and CNY 187.2 billion for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[13] - The total trading amount for the North Exchange during the week was CNY 677.6 billion, with an average trading amount per stock of CNY 2.2 billion and a turnover rate of 15.9%[13] Stock Performance - In the recent trading period, the North Exchange 50 index fell by 3.4%, underperforming the Growth Enterprise Market by approximately 1.7 percentage points[20] - Among the 301 stocks, 28 stocks increased in value, while 272 stocks decreased, with the top performer, Puan Medical, rising by 136.6%[22] New Listings - One new stock, Puan Medical (920069.BJ), was listed on March 27, 2026, with a first-day increase of 136.6% and a PE ratio of 15.0 times[30] - Upcoming listings include three companies: Yuelong Technology, Sain Electronics, and Longyuan Co., with expected issuance prices and PE ratios ranging from 13.8 to 15.0 times[34] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy changes, liquidity risks, and the potential for corporate earnings to fall short of expectations, which could further impact market sentiment[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market is affected by macro factors and geopolitical uncertainties. The overall trend of non - ferrous metals continues to be adjusted. Different metal varieties have different trends and influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to various factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summaries - **Copper**: Affected by macro factors, copper prices first declined and then rose this week. The geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, which suppresses copper prices. However, the tight supply at the mine end, the peak maintenance season of smelters, and the good downstream demand support copper prices. It is recommended to conduct range trading between 91,500 - 98,500 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the export restrictions on Guinea bauxite are relatively mild. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The downstream demand is gradually picking up, but it is also restricted by the high - volatility of aluminum prices. The supply concerns caused by the attack on two Middle - Eastern aluminum plants over the weekend are expected to boost aluminum prices. It is recommended to make long - biased allocations [3]. - **Zinc**: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated downward. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has an impact on the market. The supply of zinc ore is tight, and the smelting plants' maintenance plans increase in the second quarter. The demand recovery is slow. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lead**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,555 yuan/ton, showing a fluctuating trend. The lead inventory continues to decline, and the downstream demand has recovered slightly. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the lead price will fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately when the price is high [3]. - **Nickel**: Last week, Shanghai nickel fluctuated and rose. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, and the cost of nickel price is strongly supported. However, the supply pressure of refined nickel is high, and the demand is average. The price of nickel iron is expected to be strong, and the price of stainless steel and nickel sulfate is also expected to be strong. It is recommended to go long when the price is low [4]. - **Tin**: The price of tin continued to fluctuate. The production of refined tin decreased in February, and the import of tin concentrate increased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct range trading [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The production of polysilicon decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions moderately when the price is low or wait and see [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon are poor, and the price has fallen below the cost. It is recommended to allocate more polysilicon moderately and wait for policy signals [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as mine shutdowns and export bans. The demand is strong, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Macro - **This Week's Macro Data**: The preliminary value of the eurozone's comprehensive PMI in March was 50.5, and the US comprehensive PMI in March was 51.4. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year. Iran has effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz and rejected the US cease - fire proposal [13][15][16]. - **Next Week's Macro Data Calendar**: A series of economic data such as the eurozone's consumer confidence index, CPI, and the US employment data will be released [19]. 3.3 Each Metal Variety Details - **Copper**: This week, the copper price first declined and then rose. The LME copper spot/three - month spread, Shanghai copper's inter - period spread, and COMEX institutional positions are presented. The global visible copper inventory and Shanghai copper's position and position - to - warrant ratio are also tracked [23][28][31]. - **Aluminum**: This week, the aluminum price showed a wide - range shock. The inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, port inventory of alumina and bauxite, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum are tracked. The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, and the spot premium of A00 aluminum ingots are also analyzed [36][40][43]. - **Zinc**: This week, the zinc price stabilized and rebounded. The inventory of zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the global visible inventory of zinc are tracked. The premium of 0 zinc ingots, the forward curve of zinc, and the prices of zinc - related products are also presented [47][49][54]. - **Lead**: This week, the lead price fluctuated downward. The inventory of lead in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the global lead inventory are tracked. The forward curve of lead, the production of primary lead, and the spot premium of lead are also analyzed [61][63][70]. - **Nickel**: This week, the nickel price continued to fluctuate and adjust. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the global LME nickel inventory are tracked. The prices of high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plates, the inventory of stainless steel, and the premium of Russian nickel are also presented [74][78][84]. - **Tin**: This week, the tin price rebounded from a low level and showed a wide - range shock. The futures closing prices of tin, the premium of Shanghai tin, the smelting profit, and the inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME are tracked [91][93][99]. - **Other Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.)**: The daily - line trend charts of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, alumina, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy are presented, showing different trends such as low - level rebound, wide - range shock, and downward trend [105][111][118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai copper price slightly retraced. As of March 27, it closed at 95,930 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.26%. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the strengthening of the US dollar index have suppressed copper prices. However, the significant reduction of domestic social inventories and the arrival of the peak copper consumption season will support copper prices [5]. - Affected by macro - factors, copper prices will first decline and then rise this week. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, inflation, and the strengthening of the US dollar will continue to suppress copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation at the mine end continues, and some enterprises have signaled production cuts. Downstream demand is relatively active, and domestic inventories are significantly decreasing. Copper prices may maintain a volatile adjustment [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Review**: Last week, the Shanghai copper price slightly retraced. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the strengthening of the US dollar index have suppressed copper prices. The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remains at a historical low. Some enterprises have signaled production cuts, and domestic smelting enterprises will enter the peak maintenance period in the second quarter. The decline in copper prices has led to an increase in downstream orders and开工, and domestic copper inventories continue to decline [5]. - **Supply - side**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. As of March 27, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 458,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.55%. The spot TC of copper concentrates has reached a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high [8][29]. - **Demand - side**: The decline in copper prices has led to an increase in the开工 rate of refined copper rods, and the copper foil industry has maintained a high level of prosperity. Last week (March 20 - March 26), the average weekly starting rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points. The starting rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod in February were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively [8][32]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventories continue to decline, while LME inventories continue to accumulate. As of March 27, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 35.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.65%. As of March 26, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of the country was 427,400 tons, a decrease of 18.29% compared to March 19. As of March 27, the LME copper inventory was 360,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23%. The COMEX copper inventory was 588,900 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% [9][35]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Affected by macro - factors, copper prices will first decline and then rise this week. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, inflation, and the strengthening of the US dollar will continue to suppress copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation at the mine end continues, and some enterprises have signaled production cuts. Downstream demand is relatively active, and domestic inventories are significantly decreasing. Copper prices may maintain a volatile adjustment [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: The significant decline in social inventories has led to a stable premium and discount of Shanghai copper in the game. The LME copper inventory continues to accumulate, the LME 0 - 3 discount continues to widen, and the New York - London copper price difference remains negative [16]. - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of March 27, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper have both decreased. As of March 20, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions increased by 59.95% week - on - week. As of March 24, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased by 24.21% week - on - week [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. As of March 27, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 458,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.55%. The spot TC of copper concentrates has reached a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in March will further increase [29]. - **Downstream Starting Rate**: The starting rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod in February were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively. The starting rate of copper foil is much higher than the same period in previous years. Last week (March 20 - March 26), the average weekly starting rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points [32]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventories continue to decline, while LME inventories continue to accumulate. As of March 27, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 35.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.65%. As of March 26, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of the country was 427,400 tons, a decrease of 18.29% compared to March 19. As of March 27, the LME copper inventory was 360,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23%. The COMEX copper inventory was 588,900 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile and bullish" rating for the copper sector in the non - ferrous metals industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The current copper market is mainly affected by inflation expectations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Copper prices have shifted from being driven by Middle - East events to being driven by inflation expectations. It is expected that copper prices this week will follow the gold trend to a greater extent and decouple from the negative correlation with crude oil prices. With the easing of market panic after the news of US - Iran peace talks, copper prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider gradually building long positions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract (CU2605) was 95,150 yuan/ton, a 1.1% decline from the previous night - session closing price. The second - main Shanghai copper contract (CU2606) closed at 95,100 yuan/ton at night, with a decline of 1.17%. As of 06:00 on March 27, 2026, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract (HGK26E) was 5.4705 US dollars/pound (converted to 83,265 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9), a 0.9% decline from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract (CA03ME) closed at 12,120 US dollars/ton (converted to 83,678 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9041), with a decline of 1.33% [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 23, according to local media reports, Freeport - McMoRan in Indonesia will restart production at its Grasberg mine in the next two to three weeks, and Blocks 2 and 3 of the mine will start production [1] - According to the statistical monthly report data on the official website of the General Administration of Customs on March 23, in January - February 2026, the cumulative export of unwrought copper and copper products was 34.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 95.5% [1] - According to the statistical monthly report data on the official website of the General Administration of Customs on March 23, in January - February 2026, the cumulative import of copper ore concentrates was 4.93 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [1] - According to the official website of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on March 23, Zijin Mining's (601899.SH) wholly - owned subsidiary, Zijin Gold, will hold 572 million shares of Chifeng Gold after the transaction with Chifeng Gold is completed, accounting for about 25.85% of the total number of shares after the additional issuance. The company will gain control of Chifeng Gold [1] - According to Wenhua Finance on March 19, KoBold Metals' Mingomba high - grade copper project in Zambia has officially moved from the exploration stage to the development stage, with an average copper grade of 3.64% - 5%. The project is expected to have a total investment of 2.3 - 2.5 billion US dollars, aiming to produce copper in the early 2030s, with an annual copper output of about 300,000 tons after completion [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The current copper market is mainly affected by inflation expectations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The high price of crude oil has gradually spread to the middle and lower reaches in 20 days, and inflation has gradually become a fact and continuously strengthened future expectations. Since crude oil has accumulated a gain of about 65% after the war, the contribution of single - day price changes to the cumulative gain is getting smaller, and the impact of single - day crude oil fluctuations on inflation is less than in the early stage of the war. Copper prices have shifted from being driven by Middle - East events to being driven by inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are directly reflected in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay more attention to the CME FedWatch Tool and the price and term structure of the 30 - day US federal funds futures [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged in December this year is 54.4%, the probability of one interest - rate hike is 35.7%, the probability of two interest - rate hikes is 8.8%, and the probability of one interest - rate cut is 0%, which deviates from the institutional prediction of one interest - rate cut. After the news of US - Iran peace talks, the market panic has eased, so copper prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider gradually building long positions [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the platinum and palladium markets, analyzing the current market situation, supply - demand dynamics, and providing investment suggestions [6] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar and crude oil prices has continuously suppressed the precious metals market. The platinum and palladium markets on the GQIEX continued their weak and volatile performance this week [6] - The main contradictions in the market revolve around the repeated situation in the US - Iran conflict, the impact of oil prices and inflation expectations, and the pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [6] - Platinum shows stronger price support than palladium, with its support coming from its tight fundamentals. The medium - term tight logic of platinum remains unchanged, while the medium - term logic of palladium is weaker [6] - In the short term, platinum and palladium are likely to follow the fluctuations of gold and silver, remaining under pressure. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually buy platinum on dips [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The US dollar and crude oil prices have put pressure on the precious metals market. The platinum and palladium markets on the GQIEX continued to be weak and volatile. The main contradictions in the market are related to the US - Iran situation, oil prices, inflation expectations, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [6] - Platinum's price support comes from its tight fundamentals. In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the above - ground inventory may drop to 2.613 million ounces [6] - Although palladium is supported by Russian supply risks, its medium - term logic is weaker. The Chinese fiberglass industry may be a new source of palladium demand, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline - vehicle catalysts [6] 4.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Due to the repeated US - Iran geopolitical situation, the US dollar and crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels. The main contracts of platinum and palladium on the GQIEX were weak and volatile [7] - As of March 27, 2026, the main palladium contract 2606 on the GQIEX was at 358.20 yuan/gram, down 2.89% for the week; the main platinum contract 2606 was at 493.05 yuan/gram, down 3.28% for the week [11] - The net positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. The long - position of NYMEX palladium continued to flow out [12] - As of March 17, 2026, the net long - position of NYMEX platinum was 22,917 contracts, a 9.57% increase; the net long - position of NYMEX palladium was - 1,383 contracts, a 1.71% increase but still in a net - outflow state [14] - This week, the basis of the main NYMEX platinum contract strengthened, while that of the main NYMEX palladium contract weakened [15] - As of March 26, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was $55.7/ounce (last week: - $38), strengthening; the NYMEX palladium basis was - $33/ounce (last week: $47), weakening [19] - This week, the basis of the main platinum contract on the GQIEX weakened, while that of the main palladium contract strengthened [20] - As of March 26, 2026, the platinum basis was - 2.85 yuan/gram (last week: 3.35 yuan/gram), weakening; the palladium basis was - 14.35 yuan/gram (last week: - 18.45 yuan/gram), strengthening [22] - This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased slightly, while the NYMEX palladium inventory increased [23] - As of March 26, 2026, the NYMEX platinum inventory was 558,767.51 ounces, a 3.54% decrease; the NYMEX palladium inventory was 248,373.69 ounces, a 1.29% increase [26] - The price trends of platinum and gold continued to be highly synchronized, and the gold - platinum ratio weakened slightly this week [27] - As of March 26, 2026, the gold - platinum ratio was 2.41 (last week: 2.44), a slight weakening; the rolling correlation between NYMEX platinum and gold strengthened (N = 40) [31] 4.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of February 2026, the import and export volume of platinum decreased, while that of palladium increased [33] - Platinum imports were 4,437,146 grams, a 6.11% decrease; exports were 371,067 grams, a 72.15% decrease. Palladium imports were 1,525,418 grams, a 51.77% increase; exports were 2,288 grams, a 25.94% increase [37] - The demand for platinum and palladium in automobile exhaust catalysts has been declining due to the increasing share of new - energy vehicles [39] - The core consumption of platinum and palladium is concentrated in automobile exhaust catalysts, but the trends are different. The proportion of automobile catalysts in global palladium consumption is 83%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 6% to 285 tons. For platinum, automobile catalysts account for 44%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 3% to 234 tons [41] - The total demand for global platinum and palladium is showing a gentle slowdown trend [42] - WPIC expects the global platinum demand to be 8.297 million ounces in 2025, a 1% increase, and to drop to 7.619 million ounces in 2026. The automobile demand will decline from 3.107 million ounces in 2024 to 2.943 million ounces in 2026 [46] - The supply patterns of platinum and palladium are different. Geopolitical situations have tightened the platinum supply [48] - In 2025, the global platinum mine supply decreased to 5.551 million ounces, a 4% decrease, and is expected to rise slightly to 5.553 million ounces in 2026. The recycling supply increased from 1.664 million ounces to 1.827 million ounces. The global palladium mine production is expected to drop to 190,000 kilograms in 2025, a significant decline from 217,000 kilograms in 2024 [52] 4.4 Macro and Options - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued their strong performance [58] - As of March 26, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.90, a 0.70% increase; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.02%, a 0.16% increase [62] 4.5 Platinum - Palladium Price Difference - This week, the price differences between domestic and foreign markets for both platinum and palladium narrowed [54] - As of March 26, 2026, the platinum price difference between domestic and foreign markets was $86.61/ounce, a week - on - week decrease; the palladium price difference was $45.76/ounce, a week - on - week decrease [56]