Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent correction in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the suppression of near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports. The warehouse receipt issue is a short - term impact, and the market pressure will ease after the 09 contract warehouse receipts are cancelled. However, if exports remain weak, the strength of the caustic soda peak season will be tested. Domestic demand is stable, with non - aluminum demand expected to improve in the peak season, and alumina production at a high level providing strong support. The key lies in the commissioning rhythm of new capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - As of August 27, 2025, the 01 contract futures price of caustic soda was 2703, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in the cheapest deliverable area in Shandong was 860, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2688, and the basis was - 16 [1]. - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained firm, and prices in other regions followed the upward trend of the previous major regions. Attention should be paid to changes in the delivery volume to major downstream customers [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Supply and Demand in the Export Market**: The new capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea have led to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. The export profit has not expanded, recent export orders have been poor, and the 50% - 32% caustic soda price spread has been weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for caustic soda [2]. - **Domestic Demand Situation**: Domestic demand is stable. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve in the peak season, and alumina production is at a high level, providing strong rigid support. There are expectations of 360 million tons of new capacity to be commissioned in Guangxi by the end of this year, and the local caustic soda supply is tight. The alumina inventory build - up will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda, but it depends on the commissioning rhythm. The delivery volume of caustic soda to an alumina plant in Shandong has been consistently low, lower than its daily consumption [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]