消息面 1月9日当周，全国建材厂螺纹库存录得147.93万吨，较上一周增加8.56万吨，增加幅度达6.14%；最近 一个月，全国建材厂螺纹库存累计增加7.13万吨，增加幅度为5.06%。 机构观点 正信期货： 1月8日，上期所螺纹钢期货仓库仓单55633吨，环比上个交易日减少1211吨；螺纹钢期货厂库仓单21000 吨，环比上个交易日持平。 综合来看，近期钢材供需结构转弱，盘面宏观和产业预期扰动仍然明显，但随着淡季深入，需求下滑的 效果或将比减产更加明显，卷螺价格或仍有回调空间。策略方面：本周或仍维持震荡格局，关注加仓空 单的机会。 宝城期货： 截至1月8日当周，螺纹钢产量连续第四周增加，厂库、社库由降转增，表需连续第三周下降，螺纹社库 290.18万吨，较上周增加7.52万吨，增幅2.66%；螺纹表需174.96万吨，较上周减少25.48万吨，降幅 12.71%。 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂开始复产，螺纹产量持续增加，且存有增量空间，低供应格局待 变，利好效应趋弱，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现依然偏弱，高频需求指标继续位于近年 来同期低位，且下游行业未改善，后续将延续季节性弱势，继而承压钢价 ...

期货有限公司 资金获利了结,铂锂大幅回调 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 2025年12月25日，铂、肥出现大幅回赐，铂主力合约开盘跌4.07%至630.55元亮。把主力合约开盘跌8.54%至523.95元克，且盘中继续尝试下探，此前，我们曾在报告中多次提示近期较 把那货价格升波上涨所带来的短期回调风险。其原因在于，铂把期货接连大涨已脱离其自身基本面驱动，而更多是市场资金集中炒作所致，并使得期别价差、内外价差持频拉大、进而形成无风 脸套利空间，在此情况下价差存在收敛顺向。面对该行情，广期所已于12月23日起实施铭把交易假题，对价格风险进行营篮。此外，临近圣诞和元旦假期，部分资金在经历过一波大涨后开始逐 步获利了结,我们认为短期铂把或已进入调整阶段。 基本面情况 风险提示 风险因素:主产区供应抗动;全球经济衰退;美联储降息预期反复 研究员: | 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 | 投资咨询号:Z0016667 | 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 | 投资咨询号:Z0021455 | 王雨欣 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 合成橡胶：步入震荡 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,175 | 11,230 | -55 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 156,564 | 173,927 | -17363 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 103,099 | 103,729 | -630 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 881,139 | 963,208 | -82070 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -175 | -380 | 205 | | | 月差 | BR01-BR05 | | -95 | -85 | -10 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 10,600 | ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent correction in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the suppression of near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports. The warehouse receipt issue is a short - term impact, and the market pressure will ease after the 09 contract warehouse receipts are cancelled. However, if exports remain weak, the strength of the caustic soda peak season will be tested. Domestic demand is stable, with non - aluminum demand expected to improve in the peak season, and alumina production at a high level providing strong support. The key lies in the commissioning rhythm of new capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - As of August 27, 2025, the 01 contract futures price of caustic soda was 2703, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in the cheapest deliverable area in Shandong was 860, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2688, and the basis was - 16 [1]. - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained firm, and prices in other regions followed the upward trend of the previous major regions. Attention should be paid to changes in the delivery volume to major downstream customers [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Supply and Demand in the Export Market**: The new capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea have led to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. The export profit has not expanded, recent export orders have been poor, and the 50% - 32% caustic soda price spread has been weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for caustic soda [2]. - **Domestic Demand Situation**: Domestic demand is stable. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve in the peak season, and alumina production is at a high level, providing strong rigid support. There are expectations of 360 million tons of new capacity to be commissioned in Guangxi by the end of this year, and the local caustic soda supply is tight. The alumina inventory build - up will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda, but it depends on the commissioning rhythm. The delivery volume of caustic soda to an alumina plant in Shandong has been consistently low, lower than its daily consumption [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing decline in the prices of U.S. soybeans and corn futures, emphasizing that fundamental factors and weather expectations are driving market trends, with August potentially being a critical window period for these commodities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - U.S. soybean and corn futures prices are experiencing a continued downward adjustment [1] - The market is influenced by both fundamental factors and weather forecasts, indicating a complex interplay affecting prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - August is highlighted as a potentially significant period for the agricultural commodities market, suggesting that developments during this time could impact future pricing and market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have ended a three-day rally due to an increase in inventory, raising questions about how long prices can be sustained [1] Group 1 - The recent increase in palm oil inventory has led to a price correction in the futures market [1] - The market is now assessing the sustainability of current price levels in light of the inventory rise [1]